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#1433837 - 13/09/2017 09:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Colin Maitland Offline
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Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2383
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I was reading a few pages back RE: Solar flares, and as a Ham operator I was chatting with my mate and there were some big interference with the big CME cat X9.3 storm. Interesting there was talk in the media that is why NK did not set of its ICBM, whether that is the case I can't really comment but there was the huge 8.2 EQ in Mexico. Not sure if related as well.

But while the sun is supposed to be quiet it has been throwing some big flares up. The following article may be interesting to some.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/technology...313941d0f074aef

Solar flares: Our sleeping Sun has erupted with seven flares in seven days
Jamie Seidel, News Corp Australia Network
an hour ago

OUR Sun has sent forth seven flares in seven days. One is headed our way.

One, unleashed last week, was the solar equivalent of Hurricane Irma — a monster X9.3 storm. Even though it only struck Earth a glancing blow, this was enough to disrupt some radio communications.

Since then, the same cauldron of magnetic activity on the Sun’s surface has erupted with flare after flare.

Another big one, at magnitude X8.2, was blasted outwards overnight. It’s arriving soon.

SPACE WEATHER WARNING

What makes these flares so significant is that the explosions have been strong enough to tear pieces of the Sun away from itself, and fling it into space. It’s called a coronal mass ejection (CME), and — depending on its strength — if one was to hit Earth the effects could range from an annoyance to catastrophic.

The latest warning from the Space Weather Prediction Center is that the latest flare could cause a moderate disruption radio communications over North and South America for up to an hour tonight.

While the Earth’s atmosphere protects those of us on the surface from the most harmful rays, things get different the higher up you go.

Fortunately, the odds are very low things will get any worse. The Solar System is an enormous shooting gallery — with comparatively tiny targets. Even when the Sun is fully awake in its 11-year cycle of eruptions and silence, Earth generally only gets the annoyance of satellites being disrupted in orbit — along with the beauty of glowing aurorae high in our skies.

The Sun is supposed to be approaching solar minimum — a period where hardly a ripple marks its surface.

But observations over the centuries have shown that when a solar ‘hot spot’ does emerge at this time, it tends to be very hot. It’s times like these that have produced some of the biggest solar flares recorded.

“The X9.3 flare was the largest flare so far in the current solar cycle, the approximately 11-year-cycle during which the sun’s activity waxes and wanes,” a NASA statement reads.

“The current solar cycle began in December 2008, and is now decreasing in intensity and heading toward solar minimum. This is a phase when such eruptions on the sun are increasingly rare, but history has shown that they can nonetheless be intense.”

Why this happens, however, is not yet known.

ELECTRIC HAIL

The first impact from a solar flare comes from charged particles travelling at 150,000,000km/h. These arrive at Earth about an hour after an eruption. But the bulk of the material spewed forth by a CME can take a couple of days to reach our planet — giving us time to prepare.

Solar flares can be a serious threat. The biggest blobs of energy — if they were to strike Earth full-on — charge the ionosphere, causing it to absorb radio waves. This could cut communications with everything from airliners to satellites — including GPS signals.

Radiation levels in space would also spike, posing a health risk to astronauts aboard the International Space Station and even airline passengers.

The most severe geomagnetic storms could pump unwanted electrical current into powerlines, and even electrical devices. These have been known to fry electrical networks, blacking out entire cities and states.

In 1989, the entire Canadian state of Quebec was blacked out for nine hours after a direct hit from a coronal mass ejection. Another 200 power grids in the United States experienced surges. The worst was in 1859, when electricity was only beginning to be used in telegraph wires. These failed worldwide.

A similar hit, now, could be an electronics apocalypse — taking out power networks and destroying electronic systems such as banking transactions. It would be a worldwide disaster, with transportation and food production networks crippled.

The current solar hotspot, dubbed Active Region 2673, was first spotted on August 29. This flare is likely to be the last to have any impact on Earth as the region is rotating towards the Sun’s far side.
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#1433849 - 13/09/2017 10:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1455
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
A few nights ago tony audin from channel 7 said this summer would be extremely hot and dry. I was confused by this as there seems to be more of a wet signal comming?
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#1433850 - 13/09/2017 10:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: paulcirrus]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1265
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: paulcirrus
A few nights ago tony audin from channel 7 said this summer would be extremely hot and dry. I was confused by this as there seems to be more of a wet signal comming?


He'd just be quoting the BoM...

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#1433852 - 13/09/2017 10:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
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Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1609
Loc: Kingaroy
The pendulum has to swing back the other way sooner or later. We've had record dry from about 2012 onwards, it has to break soon.

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#1433853 - 13/09/2017 10:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Chris Stumer]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1265
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Chris Stumer
The pendulum has to swing back the other way sooner or later. We've had record dry from about 2012 onwards, it has to break soon.


Agree - we could have a 98-99 summer. Dry December followed by a very wet Jan/Feb/Mar & Apr.

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#1433871 - 13/09/2017 12:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1694
To compare how cold did the Strong La Nina of 2010-11 get? Was it -1.7c at its peak or colder? The second peak in late 2011-12 wasn't as strong but I suspect it was between -1.0c and -1.5c?


Edited by _Johnno_ (13/09/2017 12:02)
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#1433882 - 13/09/2017 13:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
DarrylS Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2011
Posts: 113
Loc: Camp Hill, QLD
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
To compare how cold did the Strong La Nina of 2010-11 get? Was it -1.7c at its peak or colder? The second peak in late 2011-12 wasn't as strong but I suspect it was between -1.0c and -1.5c?


I think this is what you are after, Johnno: Monthly NINO3.4 index data covering 1998 to today. From my reading of that it looks like it got as low as -1.61 in October 2010.
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#1433885 - 13/09/2017 13:56 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1265
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
No good comparing it til then - that was classic La Nina - started in May. We are in sort of unchartered Territory for this time of year with such a late switch.

And I don't consider we even got to a La Nina last season - it didn't get below -0.5 for more than a month and was gone by January. More a neutral year IMO.

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#1433890 - 13/09/2017 14:29 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
adon Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/08/2004
Posts: 5295
Loc: Not tellin!
There seems to be a big change in the Indian Ocean for the better! It looks like the IOD might be fading. This could be a very interesting summer.....

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#1433895 - 13/09/2017 14:49 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: adon]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1265
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: adon
There seems to be a big change in the Indian Ocean for the better! It looks like the IOD might be fading. This could be a very interesting summer.....


Agree - now we wait and see what lag there is between ocean and air.

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#1433898 - 13/09/2017 14:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1694
Originally Posted By: Kino
No good comparing it til then - that was classic La Nina - started in May. We are in sort of unchartered Territory for this time of year with such a late switch.

And I don't consider we even got to a La Nina last season - it didn't get below -0.5 for more than a month and was gone by January. More a neutral year IMO.


Lol regardless what this La nina does or doesn't do if it even gets going I am still curious to know how cold 2010-2012 got (Y)if someone knows or has the info would love to know.
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#1433899 - 13/09/2017 14:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1694
Cheers just saw then thanks DarrylS
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#1433900 - 13/09/2017 14:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
_Johnno_ Offline
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Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1694
I find it interesting that some of the recent runs of CFS are almost going that low.. Probably won't happen but interesting nevertheless.
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#1433901 - 13/09/2017 15:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1265
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Originally Posted By: Kino
No good comparing it til then - that was classic La Nina - started in May. We are in sort of unchartered Territory for this time of year with such a late switch.

And I don't consider we even got to a La Nina last season - it didn't get below -0.5 for more than a month and was gone by January. More a neutral year IMO.


Lol regardless what this La nina does or doesn't do if it even gets going I am still curious to know how cold 2010-2012 got (Y)if someone knows or has the info would love to know.


-1.65 in Jan 2011

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#1433902 - 13/09/2017 15:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1265
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The BoM's take as of today:

Quote:
ENSO neutral, but tropical Pacific continues to cool

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have steadily cooled over the central and eastern tropical Pacific for the past two months, but remain well within the neutral ENSO range. Temperatures at and below the surface are now slightly cooler than average. Other indicators of ENSO, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the Date Line and trade winds also remain at neutral levels.

Most international climate models surveyed suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean may cool further, but persist at ENSO-neutral levels for the rest of 2017. Two of the eight models approach La Niña thresholds around the end of the year, which is typically when ENSO events reach their peak.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral, though index values have generally been weakly positive for the past five months. Most climate models suggest the IOD is likely to remain neutral. However, two of the six climate models surveyed suggest a positive IOD may develop during spring. If a positive IOD eventuated it would likely be short-lived as IOD events typically break down by December as the monsoon trough moves south towards Australia.

Positive IOD events are typically associated with below average spring rainfall, and increased spring–summer fire potential over central and southern Australia, while La Niña-like patterns tend to promote above-average spring rainfall in the south and east. Hence Australia faces some competing, though weak, climate drivers in the months ahead.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


Edited by Kino (13/09/2017 15:03)

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#1433905 - 13/09/2017 15:16 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1609
Loc: Kingaroy
The big question is will the atmosphere couple with the cooling in the Pacific? It didn't in 2016.

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#1433914 - 13/09/2017 16:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 2755
Loc: Buderim
The atmosphere is driving the cooling in the Pacific.

The issue is will the cooling reach key areas further west and further north that control tropical convection patterns in the Pacific. The other issue is that an important part of ENSO mechanism is via an Indian Ocean response (if you are west of great dividing range)

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#1433916 - 13/09/2017 16:36 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17913
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
The atmosphere is driving the cooling in the Pacific.


Probably not entirely on its own. The cooling has not all originated west to east propagation of a kelvin wave as shown in the cut aways. There is likely to be a contribution from currents in the South Pacific Gyre also bringing cold water from the southern hemisphere upwelling along the equator.

NOAA's maps seem to support this.

Ultimately according to a recent documentary I watched , the deep waters off Antarctica drive the lot.
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#1433921 - 13/09/2017 17:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2085
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
No one seems to talk about the sea surface levels. It is low across a lot of the southern pacific.

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#1433932 - 13/09/2017 18:40 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2017 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
_Johnno_ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2009
Posts: 1694
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Originally Posted By: Kino
No good comparing it til then - that was classic La Nina - started in May. We are in sort of unchartered Territory for this time of year with such a late switch.

And I don't consider we even got to a La Nina last season - it didn't get below -0.5 for more than a month and was gone by January. More a neutral year IMO.


Lol regardless what this La nina does or doesn't do if it even gets going I am still curious to know how cold 2010-2012 got (Y)if someone knows or has the info would love to know.


-1.65 in Jan 2011


Cheers
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