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#1399908 - 02/01/2017 09:14 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1536
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I think the fizzer calls are a lot more accurate overall when it is seen to be just that... a fizzer. Don't get me wrong, but all i want is a weather event of biblical proportions ( Thats why i follow the weather - for its destructive nature )
Hope we get absolutely smashed, but we won't dam it smile
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1399909 - 02/01/2017 09:15 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1536
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I'm writing a few posts this morning, what, oh thats right, its just to dam hot to go outside smile
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1399912 - 02/01/2017 09:22 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4446
Loc: Brisbane
The majority of forecasts for significant events that are more than 72 hrs out tend to be fizzers for some people. Thats what makes them so easy to call.

The guy I really look to on these forums for good calls on incoming events is Ken Kato. His forecast on the big supercell late last year was very impressive in its accuracy.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1399914 - 02/01/2017 09:30 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1786
Loc: Kingaroy
January to March is our wettest time of year. Models still have most of the heavy rain offshore, hopefully that will change during the week, this summer will determine whether we have entered a new long term drought or not.

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#1399916 - 02/01/2017 09:34 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 900
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
3mm overnight.

Tend to agree with Mike for up here, I'm still hoping for 100 but expecting 20mm. I suspect the Se change might bring us a bit, we make it rain up here on days like this.

Although WATYL = goodbye cruel world

It's still an "event" and worthy of a thread in the broarder extents of the seq region, just far less significant than we may have wished for.

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#1399920 - 02/01/2017 09:49 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
The Feb 1992 floods come to mind. Low pressure system near Rockhampton. Nothing dramatic expected on the coast, I think showers was the forecast. Up to 900mm of rain and arguably the biggest flood on the sunshine coast in recent decades.

I do recall reading a study on the meteorological conditions leading up to this event, but can't find it, so not sure if there are major differences between the current situation and back then. The computer models are certainly much better today.

There is solid moisture up to 700hp, convergence at low levels and divergence in uppers. Winds backing with height. Not far from conditions required for very heavy rain. Upper level trough further north than ideal. Onshore flow is deep, but not particularly strong, so although moisture is plentiful and deep, it will not be replenished quickly if convection forms.

The big question in my mind is what will happen with convection as the change pushes up the coast, and whether this will be strong enough to modify the synoptic scale situation. Tricky aspect for the models to forecast. Perhaps a secondary meso-scale or small synoptic scale circulation is possible with this convection.

And if the tropical trough pushes a bit further south then expected, and the ridge stalls but maintains strength? Then I'd expect a major upgrade as the onshore flow becomes much stronger and convergence in SEQ intensified. Flip side is ridge weakens and trough stays further north and we could be left with close to nothing.

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#1399927 - 02/01/2017 10:05 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mamma Tus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/12/2011
Posts: 345
Loc: NE NSW
Morning all, 30C and 64%RH at 0955hrs.
Great to read the input from more knowledgeable folks.
It's already feeling humid and hoping the forecast re potential storm today comes off.
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"Clouds are the sky's imagination." ~Terri Guillemets

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#1399934 - 02/01/2017 10:34 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2421
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
I am not typing this to cause friction, but it is not a "fizzer. Just because we smashed NSW in State of Origin, (sorry NSWers, but your team is building and getting stronger and we will get thrashed soon) it does not give us the right to direct this thread to SEQ which happens so many times. I don't think it is on purpose but it just happens. We leave NE/NSW out of the equation and their part of the world, and as a result we have lost so many awesome members from down there.

Remember that this is SEQ QLD and NE NSW. I used to watch the forum for years but didn't join in because there was a barny and half that went on and a lot just left. I still see them on the other forums or FB. And I know some here will remember it. We are Brothers in Arms against Mother Nature, (Dire Straits music softly heard playing as you read.) cheers laugh

Today if you want to see rain/storms and whatever else is going to get thrown at them I would head over the boarder. Have a look a storm cast, have a look at the models or if you haven't got time due to work etc just take a glance at the District forecast for Northern NSW. Hopefully Seabreeze will keep us to date or Bello weather and those down over the boarder.

Lorenzo's Chaos theory really does apply, where one small change in atmospheric conditions (butterfly flapping its wings to those who fully understand the theory) can change the entire event. That is why we have to play a waiting game, this will break and it will be big time. Just when is the question and if anybody had the answer to that, then you would be the World Leader of something or other. The dates may be out a bit but we still had the heat and the low did bounce around up north and is still presently doing so. Water Vapor and the 4 day chart.

Stay cool everyone and hopefully NE/NSW has some things for us to talk about.

PS some of those storms could sneak their way up into QLD too.


Edited by Colin Maitland (02/01/2017 10:44)
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#1399940 - 02/01/2017 10:55 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stormwalker Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/11/2013
Posts: 71
I've got a new Nikon D5500 that I'm looking to put through its paces. I live around Kenmore.

Can anyone suggest a good spot to take some photos of approaching storms?

I'm hoping that while I'm on holidays there may be an opportunity smile

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#1399941 - 02/01/2017 10:56 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3313
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Bits of blue entering from the north on 256k Stapy, the start of something?

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#1399942 - 02/01/2017 11:01 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Sorry folks for starting this thread. As far as the south east corner goes, except for some decent falls from the storms tonight, this "event" is all but a fizzer. blush


Hmm, sorry to call it a 'fizzer'. I think this word is rather loaded. I deliberately excluded NE NSW in my estimation of a 'fizzer' as it looks as though they will get something decent from the SE change pushing through. However, what we will basically end up with once it does push up here are the onshore showers, which, I might add, can get quite heavy here in the Valley with the orographic lift.

Colin has raised some good points about the generality of this thread. I think we all live in a fairly dynamic environment that is affected by diverse topography depending on just where in NE NSW or SE Qld you live. There really can be no 'one-glove-fits-all' approach. Calling it a 'fizzer' here for us on the Sunshine Coast does not mean it will be a fizzer elsewhere. I get the point, and will cease using the term 'fizzer' in any context in the future.

Having said that maybe there is an argument for breaking up our NE NSW/SE Qld region into smaller divisions that reflect its unique yet diverse topographical environment in relation to such factors as the ranges, hinterland, coastal plains, and the metropolitan area. Therefore, everyone can have their own 'doughnut holes' at any given time. smile
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#1399947 - 02/01/2017 11:16 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Thrombus Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 25/02/2011
Posts: 34
Loc: Brisbane
Thanks IW for starting the thread. I'm a novice weather watcher at best with an interest in being aware of upcoming "events". Unfortunately I don't have the experience to contribute to the forum however the opportunity to absorb knowledge and hear the variety of opinions is what makes this website so special. Big thanks to everyone contributing. Watching the models and real-time charts allows us to learn and improve our forecasting in the future. I had a look back through this thread and there's a treasure of links to websites that will enhance my understanding of the weather and hopefully one day I will be able to contribute more meaningfully to the forum. Thanks again everyone.

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#1399948 - 02/01/2017 11:17 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3122
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Just amazes me how just as the forecast period begins some people go cold on the topic at hand Instead of discussing actual obs and data. Can see why so many people left.

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#1399951 - 02/01/2017 11:25 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1184
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Wow how awesome is this! Heavy showers on and off here all morning with 9mm in the gauge so far. Not a lot I know but this is the heaviest rain we've had in a very long time and the garden is absolutely lapping it up. Radar shows a thickening band of showers streaming in from the north so looks like we could be in for a solid day of rain!
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2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 315mm ytd

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#1399952 - 02/01/2017 11:26 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 306
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
Another sticky night here in the Lockyer Valley at RD. Min was 25C, and woke at 6am to some light drizzle, totaling 0.6mm.

It's now 31C, RH of 67%, and app temp of 35C. Mostly overcast with the sun trying hard to peek through in short periods.

Yesterday reached a maximum of 39, with an uncomfortable app temp of 45. Highest app temp since I installed my weather station 18 months ago.

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#1399953 - 02/01/2017 11:27 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
DARK&STORMY Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/05/2007
Posts: 1613
Loc: Kilkivan, Wide Bay Burnett, QL...
Receiving some moderate falls here ATM, very welcome rain, hope it keeps coming

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#1399954 - 02/01/2017 11:30 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1536
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Most of the people on this forum like myself just have a say and say their thoughts without any intention to other posters like me. If you want to keep taking it personally then thats your fault. Move on.... . Some will say a fizzer, some will say we will get smashed, just let people have their say and get over it, and move on. I live in south-east queensland so i will comment on my area, but i don't live in northern nsw and they are quite welcome to update for their area. Whether it is a fizzer or a failure, their is no appropriate way of saying it. Let people have their say. I have made my comments and don't expect to be cut down for it. As you know i will post my thoughts and walk away not caring what anyone else thinks because i am not into this she said he said crap. col you seem to be making something from nothing mate so move on.
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1399957 - 02/01/2017 11:35 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2421
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Sorry folks for starting this thread. As far as the south east corner goes, except for some decent falls from the storms tonight, this "event" is all but a fizzer. blush


Hmm, sorry to call it a 'fizzer'. I think this word is rather loaded. I deliberately excluded NE NSW in my estimation of a 'fizzer' as it looks as though they will get something decent from the SE change pushing through. However, what we will basically end up with once it does push up here are the onshore showers, which, I might add, can get quite heavy here in the Valley with the orographic lift.

Colin has raised some good points about the generality of this thread. I think we all live in a fairly dynamic environment that is affected by diverse topography depending on just where in NE NSW or SE Qld you live. There really can be no 'one-glove-fits-all' approach. Calling it a 'fizzer' here for us on the Sunshine Coast does not mean it will be a fizzer elsewhere. I get the point, and will cease using the term 'fizzer' in any context in the future.

Having said that maybe there is an argument for breaking up our NE NSW/SE Qld region into smaller divisions that reflect its unique yet diverse topographical environment in relation to such factors as the ranges, hinterland, coastal plains, and the metropolitan area. Therefore, everyone can have their own 'doughnut holes' at any given time. smile



PLEASE note I was not intending to direct this at anyone, it was just a general observation with Fizzers.

You raise a good point IW, but what worries me is the forum is gradually loosing members. They are going to other Social Media platforms and if we break this thread up into fragmented areas we could slowly be hanging ourselves. I am just thinking of the old war strategy to divide and conquer. We are a big happy family with our little feuds and frustrations at times as a family would behave, but could this action result in more members going?

Just my thought. See we lost Michael Bath (he taught me so much), Jason P, Pingtang, AC (SEQ QLD) just to name a few. If you look at the members list it is a shock. http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showmembers

So although I like the idea I am nervous due to the shift in trends and breaking up the family/friends up we have here. Just my thoughts, but I will go along with the majority.

I still think it was a great thread to post. Still something could come out of it and we have had the heat and other things to talk about and things to learn.

Thanks for starting this thread and everyone for giving me and others something to do, personally I am hot, bothered and Storm deprived.

PS: It is hard to bring feelings across just by typing, and sometimes a person may be in a bad frame of mind due to so many reason and thus take something personally, I did last year, but I never mean to try and hurt someone. If you were talking to me you would notice an upbeat and happy persona but on the keyboard it may come across as a warrior, so I apologise if that has happened. When someone does go me, I will stand up, but that is work in the construction industry and not on the forum.

Cheers everyone.

EDIT Just read your post Paul, as I was thinking and typing you have posted your comment as I was offering a peace offering. Well I will ignore your comments and I have watched you over the years under different name, so if that is what you would like, I will ignore you totally. People who know me Know I don't mean malice but you have singled me out as one on your hit list. I was trying to bring a forum together, but to have it smashed by comments taken out of context. Nothing more to say. That is the side of me that will stand up.


Edited by Colin Maitland (02/01/2017 11:43)
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VK4FCDM (Amateur radio call sign)

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#1399958 - 02/01/2017 11:37 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 150
I messaged Ken. I really wanted to discuss variables in the models. I was checking frequently to see if there was and discussion but it was mostly about obs. The forum is slowly dying and it's sad. All of my arthritis is giving me hell today and it feels like I'm in the tropics. GFS is quite interesting.

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#1399960 - 02/01/2017 11:50 Re: SE QLD/NE NSW 31 Dec 2016 - 7 Jan 2017 Heat, then Heavy Rain/Storms with S'ly change, followed by Showers [Re: Inclement Weather]
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 150
Paulcirrus is often pessimistic, that's just his take on things. It's just an opinion and it adds to the conversation in here 😊

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