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#1400245 - 03/01/2017 06:13 SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
i'll be brief on this for starters..........
been watching this since the last event but things have
been marginal at best looking sometimes like being a non
event and not worth starting a thread about
the models are becoming a bit clearer now, being only 2 days
out thurs. is looking good for storms with the mid north and
iron triangle in for another dose. winds are light right
through to 500 which makes for good zombification and the
upper winds have come to the party and are neutral to
divergant. after 4 days of playing government the models
are now coming into alignment and ramping up nicely, friday
and saturday will be a decent dose of heat with a late change
and possible showers and storm on sat.

TH
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#1400435 - 04/01/2017 07:09 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14854
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yea sfc trough and upper trough combine with classic NE infeed on thurs so afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, chiefly N of Adelaide though and also most likely east of the ranges, bar perhaps NE ranges late. Bulk of ranges at this stage I feel will not be unstable enough and be a touch too dry and be washed out with seabreeze and ridge air from the south. Best convergence east of Murray over the Mallee out to the border, up into Riverland (Moragn/Waik/Renmark) no mans land and Upper Mid North especially...Peterborough/Jamestown etc. Might be a battle for the Adelaide plains but we shall see. Moisture is better the further inland one goes and that could be the difference.

TS cool

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#1400449 - 04/01/2017 09:05 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
thanks TS,
this GFS 12z run has good cape over lofty ranges, but like
you say it's late in the day and what with light winds all
the way to 500 that sea breeze should be firing on all
cylinders , it just depends on whether it wipes the cape
out or interacts with it to create some boundary uplift,
the sounding has nice cold uppers and a parcel line wide
enough to drive a truck up, if it does go up it'll be
explosive imo.
if it was earlier in the day i'd certainly be sitting at
murray bridge but it's too risky for something that may
turn out marginal or not at all.
at this stage i,m going to stage at morgan and sit with my
snout in the trough while i wait for something to happen,
models are averaging peterburough for startup but that's
variable out to 100km radius, and that's only as models
prog atm. cape bullseyes and other parameter hotspots vary
from run to run so it's just a matter of just looking at
the big pic and worrying about bullseyes on the day.
tomorrow mornings 12z run will be the decider as to where
to finally stage.

TH
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#1400573 - 05/01/2017 06:02 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14854
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
GFS come back to EC now and ACCESS-R did so at 00z so bit more realistic now. General line of afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms NE of about Whyalla/Gawler/Meningie, especially moreso out over no mans land and the border areas and Upper North around Peterborough/Jamestown still. Not convinced about much around Adelaide or even the ranges, poss N ranges still about it for now, see if a touch more moisture can inject and we can one down over the suburbs.

TS cool

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#1400576 - 05/01/2017 06:45 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
the sky's looking sweet down here, so are the
models......morgan it is.
seems like you and i are the only two that care TS.
bit like a cake i suppose, most people only care about
it once its cooked.

TH

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#1400597 - 05/01/2017 09:12 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 524
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Yeah looks great down South TH I do agree, aided by a weak ULD we'll be in for something today. And also IMO the ranges especially down South and out towards Coorong will go also.

Love the cake reference, I love cake grin
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1400605 - 05/01/2017 09:47 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
I'm out chasing today fwiw. Have always favoured Upper Mid North for this system, and thats prob where I'm headed, may move towards Morgan And Riverland later....

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#1400615 - 05/01/2017 11:00 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2108
Loc: Clare, SA
Agree with your target teck, upper Mid North likely where I'll be, if I can get errands done quickly today!
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#1400617 - 05/01/2017 11:09 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
----- Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 203
AM radio in the car was sounding like fireworks...

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#1400622 - 05/01/2017 11:20 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
At morgan now, cells firing south of the river and well into
vic, early stuff going strong for now, clouds are low topped
and cluttered and cupious amounts of haze.
Some development near robertstown looks like its about to
go off. Hope it does, I'm front and centre for that one as it
drifts east.

TH
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#1400627 - 05/01/2017 11:48 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Robertstown stuff is still remnant high based stuff. We just drove thru it.
Gotta wait for surface based stuff to get up now.

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#1400636 - 05/01/2017 12:43 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
At burra lookout. Cu field going up now.

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#1400647 - 05/01/2017 13:29 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Got rumbles here now at burra

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#1400655 - 05/01/2017 14:03 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 524
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
Yeah looks great down South TH I do agree, aided by a weak ULD we'll be in for something today. And also IMO the ranges especially down South and out towards Coorong will go also.

Love the cake reference, I love cake grin


Well not much in Southern suburbs but as I mentioned the Coorong area has gone tropo!!!
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1400657 - 05/01/2017 14:13 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
The beast at burra looks impressive from a distance but
having driven up to it looking for maybe some decent base
features it's very underwhelming, at least from my se side
anyway.
But then again it is only 1,30

TH
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#1400658 - 05/01/2017 14:26 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
Under the burra anvil, looks like something going up hard
Around orroroo.

TH
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#1400659 - 05/01/2017 14:58 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14854
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Classic leaning lady trace as I call it today, aggressive upper cooling and lovely lapse rates. No surprise seeing the castellanus this morn and certainly the way things are getting up from the sfc. Nasty evaporative cooling potential for microbursts today and also flash flooding. Borderline large hail in stronger storms as well.

TS cool

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#1400660 - 05/01/2017 15:06 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
Currently corepunching southern burra cell, lotsa big fat CGs
luckily they are embedded, heavy rain big drops but not hp,
rolling thunder atm
Sat has burra cell flanking too.
S**t I just got flanged

TH
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#1400665 - 05/01/2017 15:21 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 363
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
Some more for Eyre Peninsula please. Beers on ice.

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#1400667 - 05/01/2017 15:33 Re: SA - Heat and Storms 5th - 7th Jan 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1885
Loc: Semaphore SA
You lucky ducks. Be sure to get some pics.
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