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#1400428 - 04/01/2017 03:10 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7769
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Its looking the goods tonight but not really sure if there is much going on under all that beautiful convection. Will probably be over land by morning if not getting closer now. Hope it surprises overnight.
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#1400463 - 04/01/2017 11:41 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7769
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Seems to be doing a repeat of the last LOW. Broome copped record rainfall from that one so I guess if this one does the same it will be interesting. Not as interesting as it getting offshore and gaining TC status. C'mon angle more West if this one doesn't get offshore it will be another wasted TC opportunity. The year of land loving LOWS. Will give it time though to see what happens.
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#1400464 - 04/01/2017 11:47 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
zobubble Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/01/2013
Posts: 61
Loc: Broome, WA
Crossing everything in the hopes of more rain!!!!

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#1400465 - 04/01/2017 11:49 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
BThomas Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/01/2011
Posts: 51
Loc: Barrow Island / Perth
Wyndham Airport seemed to get the most of it with a pressure reading of 992.7hPa and gusts of 67km/h from the S then 3mins later from the NE.

Hoping for a WNW push! Once its over that warm water, watch everyone scramble from Broome to Exmouth, esp the rigs!!

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#1400469 - 04/01/2017 12:03 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
tag Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2010
Posts: 477
Loc: Alligator creek
I believe checks already underway for this to affect any operations down the coast.Looks good for a decent spin up and hoping it does get onto warm water.

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#1400476 - 04/01/2017 12:32 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7769
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
This mornings JTWC write up still has it touch and go in terms of getting offshore.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0S 130.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY
205 NM SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031254Z AMSU METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF
AUSTRALIA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
THE SYSTEM DRIFTING OFFSHORE AND CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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#1400489 - 04/01/2017 16:03 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7769
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Think I might go for a 'meet and greet' drive tomorrow to see what the outerbands of this LOW have on offer. Still blue sky here in Broome but tomorrow its meant to deteriorate as it gets closer.
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#1400498 - 04/01/2017 17:26 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 138
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hard to tell the exact movement at the moment but it's probably moved slightly south over the past 24+ hours, mostly movement has been west. Agreed?

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#1400499 - 04/01/2017 17:27 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3171
Loc: Broome
Latest update from BOM.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 4 January 2017
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 7 January 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:


At 12pm WST on Wednesday, a tropical low was located over the northern Kimberley near 15.3S 127.2E, approximately 100 kilometres west of Wyndham, moving west south-west at 17 kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move in a generally south-west direction, roughly parallel to the west Kimberley coast over the coming days. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds and flooding is likely with the passage of this low and warnings are current for parts of the Kimberley. For more information, see www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings.



There is a risk that this low may take a more westerly track and move offshore from the west Kimberley later on Friday or over the weekend. In the event the low does move over waters north of Western Australia, there is the potential for the system to develop into a tropical cyclone.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:

Thursday:
Very Low

Friday:
Moderate

Saturday:
Moderate
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1400519 - 04/01/2017 18:41 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7769
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
When are you back in town Des? Could be a fun flight in?

As for BOM they continually keep saying the most likely path is just inland of the coast - according to the models.

Well we all know how accurate they can be. Could be a twist in this yet to come.

Hahaha just trying to be positive.
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#1400566 - 04/01/2017 23:47 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7769
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Very soupy in the air outside tonight with some distant flashing and the cloud really starting to blanket the sky
At 8:30pm its 30.4 degrees dewpoint 27.7 feels like 41.0 humidity 86%
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#1400625 - 05/01/2017 11:41 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3171
Loc: Broome

Fly tonight Pops looking forward to seeing a bit of cloud structure and probably get a bouncy ride in .
Rain coming in steadily already.
Be good to see it go offshore and gain TC status but seems to be a land hugger atm.
BOM keeping their hand open though ...seems like the ingredients are all there just needs to take a step sideways and get into that extra warm water to pump it right up.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1400637 - 05/01/2017 12:43 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7769
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
It appears like shear has gotten hold of this LOW and displaced the convection well to the West of the circulation centre. Hopefully it can drop down into a better environment in the next 36 hrs so it can at least maintain some dignity as its looking a little messy this morning.
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#1400638 - 05/01/2017 12:43 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7769
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Latest from JTWC explaining things.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
130.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041319Z AMSU METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW A LARGE AREA OF PERSISTENT, BUT DISORGANIZED, CONVECTION TO THE
WEST OF A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER LAND, WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM
DRIFTING OFFSHORE AND CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
VERY WARM WATER OBSERVED IN THAT AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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#1400736 - 05/01/2017 21:08 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7769
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Weird LOW this one. Was out on the Roebuck Plains this arvo and whilst there were rain showers around there were periods where you could see clouds in the distance over 250kms away past Derby. Supposedly the LOW was meant to be between somewhere. Weird. I think it will thicken up but it was sparse looking East today. South was a different story.
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#1400742 - 05/01/2017 21:15 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
MarkMark Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/01/2006
Posts: 40
Loc: Port Hedland
Small possibility for the low to move over water.Which is better than none i guess.

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#1400769 - 06/01/2017 00:50 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7769
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Well this would have to be one of the biggest fizzers I have ever seen. I hope I can report something positive by morning but Zip, Nada, Nothing so far from this system.
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#1400770 - 06/01/2017 01:25 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3171
Loc: Broome


Yes looks so impressive on the sat pics but as you said maybe the shear cut the guts out of it...but you never know.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1400771 - 06/01/2017 01:26 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3171
Loc: Broome

Plane ride was supposed to be bumpy which it was but more so in the Pilbara than up Broome way.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1400772 - 06/01/2017 01:28 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3171
Loc: Broome

Wonder why we have been getting so many lows not making there way of the coast ...seems to be a bit of a trend happening.

Probably scared of all those drones flying around ready to get those you beaut pics..?
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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