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#1400320 - 03/01/2017 13:29 Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Time to get this thread up and running as it appears this LOW might have a chance of getting up and going in the next week.

INVEST 94S

JTWC with some reasonably promising comments.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0S
130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 022159Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
PASS REVEAL DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE DARWIN RADAR INDICATES THE LLCC HAS
NEARLY MOVED OFF THE COAST INTO THE GULF OF BONAPARTE. LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW MSLP VALUES IN THE AREA, WITH A MINIMUM NEAR
998 MB, AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY IF THE LLCC
REMAINS OVER THE WARM COASTAL WATERS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. DUE TO PROXIMITY OF A DEVELOPING LLCC TO THE COAST AND
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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#1400322 - 03/01/2017 13:36 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
It seems to have made its way towards the coast a little quicker than first modeled which had it drifting around the Top End for a few more days. The sooner it gets going the further West it will get before drifting down through inland WA. Could mean the difference between some places in the Pilbara getting much needed rainfall or missing out yet again. Hope this one delivers. Tropical LOW or TC, I think we will take it how ever it comes.
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#1400326 - 03/01/2017 13:59 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Looking forward to seeing what happens once it dips its toes in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. From what I can see it may have 18hrs+ over water including the overnight diurnal phase where hopefully convection will explode and really get a circulation centre established and set strong for its traverse of the Nth Kimberley. All important little stages that may add to what eventuates at the other end.

From a few things I have read it says that it should have some good structure over land so any chance it gets off the West Kimberley coast means it will only need a short period to crank to TC status. That's if it gets off the coast.
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#1400338 - 03/01/2017 15:33 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Winds at Wadeye shifting from SW to SE hinting that the LLCC may just be passing to the North of there currently. Pressure still dropping now at 996.9hp and over 100mm since first thing this morning.
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#1400347 - 03/01/2017 16:48 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Hopefully it gets out over the waters of Joseph Bonaparte Gulf rather than just mingling with the coastline. If it gets out and crosses the Gulf it has 200kms to the other side, if it just floats around with land interaction..... well it loses a chance to consolidate to its fullest in the short time it has over water.
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#1400348 - 03/01/2017 17:03 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Tuesday 3 January 2017
for the period until midnight WST Friday 6 January 2017.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

A broad tropical low currently over the west of the Top End is expected to move slowly west to south-west across the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and over the northeast of the Kimberley in the next 24 to 36 hours. Significant rainfall is once again expected to affect the Kimberley as this low moves west to southwest on Wednesday through to Friday.

There remains a moderate risk of this low moving offshore from the west Kimberley later in the week. Due to favourable conditions for development in the region, in the event the low does move over tropical waters north of WA there is strong potential for the system to rapidly develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Low
Friday:Moderate
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#1400350 - 03/01/2017 17:17 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I wonder if BOM is gutsy enough to put out an early track map for this LOW considering its heading out over water soon. Probably not but will wait and see. Maybe 3pm - 6pm if we are lucky. Even though its in its infancy it might be worthy of a map just to give people a heads up for further down the track. Maybe a severe weather warning instead.
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#1400354 - 03/01/2017 17:49 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Cant wait to see what the next EC outlook says in 10 minutes. TC or no TC. I reckon this one is going to pump.
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#1400355 - 03/01/2017 17:50 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
tag Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2010
Posts: 477
Loc: Alligator creek
Fingers crossed Popeye, This will be good for the much needed rain to flush the gorges and creeks that have been dry for a while.

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#1400357 - 03/01/2017 17:55 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah tag, those Pilbara Rivers look so good once they have had a good flow and freshen up. Traveled down there last Xmas/ New Years and the waterholes left in the riverbeds were full of fish sucking oxygen with hundreds dead all around the banks. Sad to see but amazing to see the variety of fish in those rivers.
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#1400361 - 03/01/2017 18:00 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Arghh!! Still coastal hugger on the EC. But that's only 1 indicator out of so many and no doubt will change.
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#1400363 - 03/01/2017 18:06 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Wow this one is really earning the saying " touch and go" I think I am like you said earlier happy with either a low or a cyclone. So long as we see some rain down here. Send her on down!

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#1400380 - 03/01/2017 20:30 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 138
Loc: Karratha, WA
Hey All,
Happy New Year!
Didn't comment on the last fart as the inland low did more damage. Fingers crossed this one gets a better run. Popeye you sure are excited!
B

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#1400395 - 03/01/2017 22:01 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Blanched]
darwindix Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/03/2016
Posts: 42
Loc: Jingili Darwin
At least it's starting to look like something interesting,A bit of banding The diurnal effect may show us more .My neighbour in Jingili Darwin recorded 180 mm in the last 24hr .

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#1400407 - 03/01/2017 23:04 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Pressure bottomed out at 995hp about 4 hrs ago in Wadeye with winds there now from the ENE which kind of hints the LLCC might be well on its way out across Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. There are some big deep convection well to the NW of the system so all looking good. Hope it cranks tonight in that Diurnal period darwindix.

Always get excited Blanched haha. Just trying to fire up the sleepy posters out of their 2 year hibernation with not a lot going on in WA. Cmon guys and girls sign in and post away.

Ningergirl, which hotel do you recommend in Hedland for a nice CAT 3 on Sunday? haha We will have to wait and see but little bit of potential for down that way I think.
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#1400408 - 03/01/2017 23:14 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Hmmm ibis styles is right across from the ocean. Get a high enough room and you should be able to see the water. Your contagious now I am getting excited. It would be so good to see a decent blow. This low each day is edging closer and closer to being a real thing... i just hope I dont wake tomorrow and it has changed its mind and gone south. Have you got some wether uo there at the moment?

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#1400416 - 03/01/2017 23:26 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Blue sky today and clear sky tonight, hot and humid. Feels like something in the air Dew points 27.1 like soup in the air.
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#1400417 - 03/01/2017 23:28 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Is Ibis next to that hill with the water tower where we unknowingly bumped into each other in Fizzer Stan?
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#1400423 - 03/01/2017 23:59 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Haha yep thats the one.

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#1400425 - 04/01/2017 00:16 Re: Tropical LOW 94S Invest NT/WA [Re: Popeye]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 138
Loc: Karratha, WA
The Esplanade gives a bit more protection and multiple views of harbour/main street! But IBIS for most impact for sure.

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