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#1400285 - 03/01/2017 09:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6486
Originally Posted By: Homer
Cheers WR. No, I've never been to Crookhaven Heads. One of the few places in that part of the world that I've never seen. Thanks for the tip. I'm now looking forward to checking it out.
I certainly plan on making another trip again to Huskisson/Vincentia and also Hyams Beach. A childhood holiday spot and also so beautiful. I'd also like to head out to Point Perpendicular as it's been 30 years since I've been there.
It's such a wonderful part of the NSW coast.


No worries, I also went to those places on my trip. Had lunch twice at Husky, bought alcohol at Vincentia and we spent an afternoon at Hyams Beach and what an amazing beach that is!! We had beautiful clear skies when we went. It wasn't warm but the warm water and sunshine made up for it. We tried to make Pt Perpendicular but it was closed during the week (due to Beecroft Weapons Range), that is also a nice spot perched high above Jervis Bay. Went there once as well. Check out Honeymoon Bay while you're in that military range, the whole place should be open with school holidays.

Absolute shock horror here today!! It's fully sunny without a cloud in the sky. I forgot how bright the sun was, it's been so long since we had a clear day. Expected another boring, cloudy one which could still occur later but right now I'm just enjoying the sunshine.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1400309 - 03/01/2017 11:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6486
Partly cloudy here now but still a very nice day for a southerly. Felt really nice to have a cool but sunny morning. No doubt it will be a cloudy afternoon, it's just one of those days. Glad though that the heat will be returning soon.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1400359 - 03/01/2017 17:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3672
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It was a fairly sunny morning with scattered cloud and a warmish Southerly. It closed in a bit from about lunch time to a fairly cloudy afternoon with sunny periods and a few short light to moderate showers. Whether or not you got rain was the luck of the draw. THe lower North Shore was in the path of a rain train for a couple of hours, while it seems none passed over the SCG.

OVerall, a better day than forecast. Nearly reached 30 at Campbelltown.


Edited by Steve777 (03/01/2017 18:00)

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#1400422 - 03/01/2017 23:52 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5871
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey guys! Reporting from Corryong, Northeast Victoria. My story for today. smile

My fiancee, parents and I left home in Belgrave around 1pm, and arrived here sometime around 10:30pm.

We stopped for lunch in Monbulk around 1:30pm, followed by a chance to refuel the car and grab snacks in Lilydale about half an hour later.

Exiting the Melbourne metropolitan area, we drove up to Yarra Glen for another quick break at about 2:30pm. Then it was north along the Melba Highway to Yea, and northwest along the Goulburn Valley Highway to Seymour for our next break at approximately 4pm.

At 4:20pm, we hit the M31 Hume Freeway (Melbourne-Sydney) and arrived at the Lake Mokoan Rest Area in Winton, near Benalla, at about 5:30pm. After about aother hour we reached the Border (Albury/Wodonga) for dinner, fuel and shopping. At 9pm, it was eastwards along the Murray Valley Highway, arriving in the Upper Murray around 1.5 hours later.

Weatherwise, temperatures felt much more summery compared to yesterday. There was an abundance of sunshine, with maximums in Melbourne's east, Dandenong Ranges and Yarra Valley in the high-teens and low-20s. North of the Great Dividing Range, highs were in the mid/high-20s up until Seymour. Across the Northern Plains and over the Murray River into Southern NSW/ACT, particularly in Wangaratta, Albury/Wodonga, and Corryong, temperatures soared to around 32C, but only topped around 26C in the Koetong/Shelley area (it was only around 18C when we passed through this region around 10pm).

Winds were generally very light, although they were gusty in the Glenburn/Murrindindi area of the Yea River Valley.

A lot of bushfire/grassfire smoke haze over towards Dookie and Shepparton while we were in Benalla.

High cloud began arriving from the northwest after about 5:30pm.

Finally, a gorgeous sunset at 8:30pm in Albury/Wodonga! smile

The highest temperature observed on my weather station at my home in Belgrave before I switched it off and left was 21.7C.

Currently around 22C here in Corryong. A mostly clear night with a cooling breeze! smile

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#1400448 - 04/01/2017 09:02 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Cloud from the east going right over today, still some patches of blue sky. the wind is fairly fresh from the NE. Cloud on the satellite coming from the NW so it looks like being a fairly cloudy day.

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#1400462 - 04/01/2017 11:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1348
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Its nasty dry around here, after a very dry year. Havent collected a storm all season, they just go south or north or die and redevelop east of us. All my dams are as low as they have been since I have lived here....and certainly as dry as its been at least since 2005/06. I think eastern NSW generally is bad, but we have been on the raw end in terms of luck too. Too far west for onshore rain, and too far east for the storms that sit on the ranges and don't move these days. What the hell happened to shear??? back in the day storms used to move to the coast. So we are in a negative SAM and the one saving grace I thought that could provide us was shear and perhaps some cut off cold pools. We are getting neither.

Anyway we have been in a steady decline to deficit since April 2015 in the Hunter and its a worry now at least around here. I need about 8-9 inches here to get dams in order.

Has anybody got a link to weatherunderground GFS model run with all the right preferences set. They have f'd around with it that many times I cant get it to work anymore. Wouldn't mind keeping an eye on longer term GFS now.

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#1400478 - 04/01/2017 13:41 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1471
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Yes GringosRain,only measured 746 mms in 2016.and I am only a few klms west of you at Ellalong.


Edited by Stormy3 (04/01/2017 13:41)
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http://supercell1.camstreams.com/ Ellalong live weathercam,from my front verandah.

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#1400508 - 04/01/2017 17:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 793
Loc: Glenorie NSW
I totalled 963.5mm in quakers hill, i was bitterly disappointed, after being 700+ in june, im calling the sept-dec period of 2016 the worst storm season period ever, i wont call the season yet as i still think february/march will surprise, it has seemed the months/actual weather scenarios has been out a month and a half to me. Gringos youre right about the shear, jet streams, even the new to me upwellings, can any wise heads remember the shear being so bad so consistently, the only storm thats brewing up here is the one inside of me for some serious severity, i miss the feeling of being in awe, of thinking holy crap whats this going to do next, of driving to work at 4am in total anticipation of what the exciting model runs for that day will produce, of putting the sunnies on, cold beverage in hand and looking up up up in the sky at a cumulus volcano exploding so fast it looks like timelapse and getting the crazy feeling of happiness and excitement inside, it just hasnt happened this season at all, and i miss it badly! Thanks for letting me lie on the psychologist couch and vent!.

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#1400515 - 04/01/2017 18:14 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 793
Loc: Glenorie NSW
youre road trip analysis brings back good memories of driving around down in that area asf, ive got a dirt bike trip booked in the vic highlands tracks in march, cant wait for it, will kick of near bright, then up to craigs hut (man from snowy river) and end at mt buller,

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#1400516 - 04/01/2017 18:22 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6486
I hear you guys, it's been terrible here as well. The three storms on my sig weren't even direct hits. I actually can't recall any of them so they must've been pretty lame, I just remember that they passed to the south.

I don't quite understand what has changed so much... We don't get good shear as other members have mentioned and we never get those classic southerly busters with thunderstorms any more. It never rains properly either. This current climatic situation is like an El Nino but perhaps even drier for our part of the world. These last couple of months, for the first time in my life, I actually really just want it to rain. I've always disliked the rain but I miss a good old heavy downpour to go to sleep with.

Welcome back to the superior state Stormfreak. cool I guess you'll be heading over to Merimbula before long too. smile


Edited by Wave Rider (04/01/2017 18:24)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1400533 - 04/01/2017 19:20 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: GringosRain]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1882
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Has anybody got a link to weatherunderground GFS model run with all the right preferences set. They have f'd around with it that many times I cant get it to work anymore. Wouldn't mind keeping an eye on longer term GFS now.

I gave up on Wunderground. Just feels like I am going around in circles.

This forum thread http://forums.ski.com.au/xf/threads/weather-links-thread.76664/ *might* be useful. Contains everyone's favourite links to models etc.

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#1400535 - 04/01/2017 19:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5328
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
I don't quite understand what has changed so much...


Mate, neither do I.
As a youngster growing up in the 70's, I have amazingly vivid memories of massive storms, and plenty of them.
These days, I cannot remember the last decent storm we got.
Even in the 90's, there were plenty.

It just seems that these days they struggle to get off the GDR.
I'm not sure why, but it happens year after year now, when I see fantastic buildup over the Ranges, only to see them either head north along the Ranges or die in the arse as they hit the coastal plain.
I have no explanation, but indeed, it is really frustrating.

It's a pleasant 22.5 deg's here at the moment. There's a light south easterly cooling the house and it's pretty much fully overcast. It's nice to not have the air-con on, even though it's humid and sweaty.
Looks like there's a few showers heading in from the east. The precipitation will be more than welcome, for the gardens at least.

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#1400540 - 04/01/2017 19:53 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
Mr Buzle Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/09/2014
Posts: 63
Loc: Lake Macquarie NSW
Guys re the lack of storms, I share your frustration. I too grew up in the 70/80s and remember some great storms. But I would say about the last 20 years has seen a decline in regularity especially the Southerly Buster. I remember you could look south towards Sydney and see a line of massive booming clouds rolling up but sadly that seemed to stop about the late 90's. I miss those the most, you know that anticipation, a time before access to the radar on your phone that sort of gives the game away these days.

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#1400558 - 04/01/2017 22:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6486
Would be good if someone had an explanation as to why this is happening, but I can't expect one off others if I don't know the reason. Only thing I can think of is that perhaps the mid level temps have increased in the last 10-20 years and you need that temp diff for storms to occur. But it does not explain the lack of shear all the time.

While it was not long ago, I too have memories of decent storms when I was young. We got them many times while staying at Nelson Bay in the mid to late 2000's and they were often at night. I remember because I used to be so scared of storms as a kid and for me there was nothing more terrifying than waking up in the middle of the night to flashing light and loud thunder. They'd often roll in from the SW after a hot day. We don't seem to get storms from the SW much any more.

As I wrote the last paragraph, I kept getting more memories of storms and wow we got some incredible ones up there, mainly at night.

I'd have to agree about the radar thing, it does take the surprise element out of the picture. Perhaps if we didn't have radars, we wouldn't care as much when our areas didn't get storms. I know myself, I seem to get jealous when areas get heaps of action and I get nothing. Without the radars and technology that we have, we wouldn't even know that storms were happening elsewhere far away and therefore would not care. Only the news would mention the most severe of storms.


Edited by Wave Rider (04/01/2017 22:18)
Edit Reason: last para
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1400562 - 04/01/2017 22:34 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5871
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My report for today from here in Corryong... smile

No observations available for the local weather station, but across the Murray River at Khancoban it was a low of 14.5C followed by a high of 31.4C.

Can't confirm if we had fog this morning. Otherwise it was a hot, humid and mostly sunny day, with the muggy heat offset by a cooling breeze at times, especially this evening.

Cloud increased towards evening, and while it did look unstable, convective, dark and stormy, we only got a few sporadic light showers. Plus a brief rainbow, and a magnificent sunset! smile

Currently around 23C.

Tomorrow's forecast looks interesting! 13C to 32C, sunny morning then afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with possible hail! smile

Thanks Quagmelson and WR! Hope all's well across the Border in 'Canada' (lol at WR's comment, seriously mate Victoria is the Superior State, not NSW/ACT haha), and hope you guys get good rain and summer storms soon! smile

And yes WR you guessed it! Off to Merimbula next week. Then I have to go back to Melbourne for a few days for a wedding, but then it's back to Corryong. Then Canberra. And then off to Sydney! grin

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#1400564 - 04/01/2017 23:24 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5328
Loc: Dural
Sounds like a great trip ASF!!!
Have Fun!!

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#1400571 - 05/01/2017 03:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8351
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
I've noticed no change in our storm seasons, if anything they've gotten more frequent and more severe. Ofcorse you'll get the dry spells here and there, some more intense than others, but that's part of the cycle. 2012/2013 was an active season, wasn't that the one where E NSW (mainly sydney) recorded 10 storm days in a row? I still remember the epic light shows in Nov 2013, some of the craziest i've seen since 2004. Then we had the Hornsby tornado in the same month.
2015 provided the ECL with the 160km/h gusts at Wattamolla, then we had the epic one last June which washed away the houses on the beach. Plenty of the widespread flood/storm variety since 2010/2011, noticeably more onshore storms in recent years than before (something that 10 yrs ago I thought wouldn't happen as frequently anymore).

So in perspective, the storms may have come in different shapes and forms, but the severity is the same.

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#1400572 - 05/01/2017 05:58 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6486
You have a point, the severity hasn't seemed to change that much for storms in Sydney, although it has gone up for other weather events like ECL's. But frequency has most definitely decline in this area and severity has gone down as well but maybe to a lesser extent.

Come on ASF, you know this is the place to be, that's why you visit all the time!! poke Only joking around mate. smile And yes I'm hoping that we get rain as well, getting very dry around here.

Up on the Highlands again and it's quite cold. But then 36C on Monday. I reckon this area has one of the most variable summer climates in the state. Gets both extreme heat (for its elevation) and also genuinely cold days being fairly close to the coast.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

Top
#1400589 - 05/01/2017 08:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
A thick blanket of cloud on Mt Horrible this morning, patchy cloud overhead coming from the west, gentle NE breeze.

I haven't noticed much change in the frequency or severity of storms here, but it is always very irregular. Some years we get lots of storms, other years hardly any, I don't see any pattern. There has been an increase here in the frequency of moderate rainfall events of the 30-50mm range. That may be just a natural cycle or global warming pushing tropical moisture further south.

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#1400598 - 05/01/2017 09:12 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
eauetsoleil Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/01/2016
Posts: 219
Loc: Bexley North
It's bucketing rain down here in Bexley North in the last few minutes.

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