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#1400967 - 07/01/2017 10:04 NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3667
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The hot air mass now passing over South Australia and Victoria is set to shift further East from tomorrow, as a high establishes itself in the Tasman and a broad low pressure trough persists over NSW. Like recent hot spells, cloud and showers also look likely to feature, with possible storms. Maps from the models show widespread precipitation, with high humidity levels at 700hPA (mid-level cloud?). Perhaps a poster with a knowledge of storms (CAPE, shear and all that stuff) would like to comment on storm potential.

Coastal areas will get a cool change for the 12th, but that will have less impact impact inland. The heat returns for the 13th before another short-lived change, although that is getting into uncertain territory. The NAEFS model projects bove average temps for January 14-21 for Eastern Australia: NAEFS Anomalies. The BOM heatwave service shows a low intensity heatwave over most of NSW between the 8th and 13th, severe on parts of the coast at times: Heatwave Service. I wasn't sure of the end date for this thread, we can stop using it when this hot spell finishes.

Here are some sample 7 day forecasts:

Code:
DATE	        7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	13th

Sydney	        27 C	29 C	31 C	30 C	32 C	26 C	32 C
Parramatta	28 C	32 C	35 C	33 C	35 C	26 C	35 C
Penrith	        30 C	36 C	39 C	35 C	39 C	28 C	39 C
Canberra	32 C	35 C	36 C	30 C	32 C	29 C	34 C
Bathurst	30 C	33 C	36 C	32 C	34 C	32 C	36 C
Maitland	28 C	34 C	38 C	37 C	40 C	28 C	38 C
Nowra	        29 C	35 C	33 C	31 C	32 C	25 C	35 C


The circulation patterns look mostly fairly weak N-NW, so sea breezes will feature and I don't expect very high temps on the coast. However, inland centres near sea level will peak at or near 40.


Edited by Seabreeze (20/01/2017 11:22)
Edit Reason: added Storms

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#1400989 - 07/01/2017 12:24 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Duane Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/11/2005
Posts: 1407
Loc: Lake Albert, Wagga Wagga, NSW.
The heatwave started here at Christmas. Doesn't look like going away soon. 30 plus temps for a couple of weeks now.
Duane.

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#1401002 - 07/01/2017 16:27 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6485
I have a bit of knowledge about all that stuff. Monday and Tuesday next week have some slight potential but fairly poor shear and probably not much moisture in the lower levels further inland. Wednesday has slightly higher potential as the steering winds are quite good but high cloud is looking like a problem. An advancing southerly change up the coast could actually help to trigger storms. And yes high humidity at 700mb does mean cloud at that level. Of course later on in the week, northern NSW is expecting pretty low Lifted Indexes.

On GFS for Friday the 13th, (quite fitting) 925mb temps are as high as I've ever seen them in this state, up to 37C which translates to about 47C or 48C at sea level.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1401009 - 07/01/2017 17:14 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Looking at the BOM forecast for Bathurst, at least all the overnight mins are in the teens so I hope there won't be any hot nights. looks pretty much like a normal january forecast.

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#1401015 - 07/01/2017 17:34 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5327
Loc: Dural
Thankfully I'll be spending the next week as close to the coast as possible in Culburra, as I have previously mentioned.
It's a beach house overlooking the sand (30 metres away) with a direct path, and it faces north east, so I'm guessing we'll be copping a fairly decent NE sea breeze wind on most days. There's only a day or two of winds coming from the opposite direction (roughly...SE) which is only just over a slight rise anyway.
Would love to show a photo but don't know how to do it.


Edited by Homer (07/01/2017 17:35)

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#1401026 - 07/01/2017 18:41 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6485
Dunno if low to mid 30's for 6 of the next 7 days is 'normal' in Bathurst. I think the average January temp is around 28C from memory. It may not be uncommon to see a week of well above average weather there but to call it normal would be a bit of a stretch I think.

We had a beautiful day here today up in the Southern Highlands. It's bit coolish this afternoon with this seabreeze, so should be a nice cool night again. Going for 33C here tomorrow which will be an excellent day. We very badly need the rain here though, there is hardly any grass except for the tall spear grass which the cows can't really eat anyway.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1401030 - 07/01/2017 18:53 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Dunno if low to mid 30's for 6 of the next 7 days is 'normal' in Bathurst. I think the average January temp is around 28C from memory. It may not be uncommon to see a week of well above average weather there but to call it normal would be a bit of a stretch I think.



It's true that the average for jan in Bathurst is around 28 but those averages don't apply anymore,we live in a hotter world. Anyway I have lived in Bathurst for 23 years now and a week of temperatures in the 30s in January is perfectly normal, it would be more surprising if it didn't happen.

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#1401033 - 07/01/2017 19:18 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6485
Well yeah, perhaps the average would be around 30C these days but I doubt it would be any more than that. I suppose it could be normal for a week of low 30's, like 30-32C, because there would be regular high 20s to balance it out to that average.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1401035 - 07/01/2017 19:27 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3667
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thank you WR. So it looks like some storm potential but nothing special.

The BOM has toned down the heat a bit and strengthened the mid week cool change, but it's still pretty warm although no records will be threatened.

Re photos, I load them onto Flickr or Photobucket, from where you can copy the link. Use 'BBCode' from Flickr or 'Direct' from photobucket. Use 'full reply screen' here and 'link' symbol - globe with chain links. Facebook and other photo hosting services can also provide links.

Beautiful day today. Here's the view from Bellbird Hill looking East over the Sydney Basin early this afternoon:

[url=[url=https://flic.kr/p/QLsteb][/url]Bellbird Hill Lookout by Steve, on Flickr]Bellbird Hill lookout[/url]

Even from there, 70km inland, the NE'er was reasonably stong and felt like a seabreeze. It was about 27 there, 30 at Richmond.

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#1401059 - 07/01/2017 21:58 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6485
Where's Bellbird Hill lookout? I've seen a similar view to that at Kurrajong Heights on BLOR descending into Richmond.

It's hard to believe that it will get to 33C tomorrow with the current weather situation. A strong NEly here and a chilly 17C which is a different world to today's warm weather. But, no doubt it will easily get over 30C tomorrow, although it may be a slow start with low cloud and maybe fog at sunrise.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1401061 - 07/01/2017 22:11 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3667
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Where's Bellbird Hill lookout? I've seen a similar view to that at Kurrajong Heights on BLOR descending into Richmond.


That's exactly where it is.

Mild, humid, starry night, seabreeze is still going strong.

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#1401083 - 08/01/2017 07:17 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6485
Awesome, did not know there was a lookout up there somewhere. Been along there twice and I just saw it through the gaps of the trees
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1401091 - 08/01/2017 08:44 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Have you ever done the grass skiing that is always advertised there? I haven't, it seems a bit unforgiving compared to snow skiing. It is a good lookout at nightime. I remember when I was a kid coming down that hill and it still felt like the countryside, with the great city stretching in the distance.

Getting warm here quickly, no breeze. feels like it is going to be a hot day.

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#1401093 - 08/01/2017 08:57 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6485
It would be pretty amazing at night, there'd be lights as far as the eye can see.

Will be a hot day here near Bowral as well, but there's a cool breeze right now. Is your elevation lower or higher than Bathurst, Greg? The elevation there is about 670m ASL
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 5
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th

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#1401102 - 08/01/2017 10:32 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
My elevation is slightly higher than Bathurst at 720M asl. The hill behind my house goes to 810m, the mountain it runs up to is nearly 1000m, and the nearby ranges are 1200M.
My house is in a little valley surrounded by hills and becomes a bit of a heat trap in summer so it is often a bit hotter than Bathurst. In winter it is about the same but snow falls a bit easier here because it is so sheltered. In winter it is a bit of a frost pocket and my dams often freeze over.

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#1401123 - 08/01/2017 15:34 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 861
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Got to 32.3C today, short of 34 forecast, and not quite a heatwave just yet.
Tomorrow looks like the real deal though, and for the rest of the week.

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#1401126 - 08/01/2017 15:57 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3667
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Forecasts for Sydney have turned out pretty accurate, with Penrith and Richmond reaching 36, the middle ring (e.g Olympic Park, Bankstown) reaching 32-33, the Airport just missing 30 and OH reaching its forecast 29 rounded.

The car thermometer was showing 32 at Ryde a little while ago. The cicadas are going full blast. There's a bit of thin high cloud about. It feels very muggy when the breeze momentarily drops.

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#1401131 - 08/01/2017 16:58 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5327
Loc: Dural
You're right Steve.
Definitely as forecast, which was still too hot. lol

Even when I just take stuff outside to put in the bin, it's too hot.
At least at Culburra I might have a cooling sea breeze, and will at least have a cool beach to go and have a splash in.
The upcoming week is looking hot. Enjoy it all you heat lovers. I won't particularly hate it. I'll have my outlet at the beach down south. But I'm glad I won't be here in Dural.
Already looking forward to March - just 8 weeks away. That's when the cool down starts.

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#1401132 - 08/01/2017 17:01 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 861
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Spoke to soon about the max, it has continued to rise to reach a late max of 33C at 5pm.

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#1401138 - 08/01/2017 18:28 Re: NSW Extended Heatwave, then ending with Storms - January 8th to 20th, 2017 [Re: Steve777]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 861
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
In fact 33.3C.

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