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#1401522 - 11/01/2017 14:01 SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1573
Loc: Uleybury
Very late Thursday and Friday set to be fairly wet as a cold front will interact with a upper level trough with tropical infeed

Falls of 20-60 with isolated falls up to 80 in the hills
I'd be happy with 30mm


First flood watch is out for a fair chunk of the state

INITIAL FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH WEST PASTORAL, WEST COAST, LOWER AND EASTERN EYRE PENINSULA, YORKE PENINSULA, KANGAROO ISLAND, MID NORTH AND THE MOUNT LOFTY RANGES INCLUDING ADELAIDE.

Issued at 12:47 pm CDT on Wednesday 11 January 2017
By the Bureau of Meteorology, South Australia.

A front and associated upper trough will move into the far west of the State late on Thursday, then over western and southern districts during Friday morning. This front and upper trough will interact with high levels of moisture and develop into a rain band over the west on Thursday before extending over central and eastern districts early Friday morning. The rain band will then contract northwards and weaken later Friday morning before clearing during the afternoon.

Riverine and flash flooding, and road inundation are possible across the watch area later Thursday and Friday morning.

Weather Forecast:
Areas of rain and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the North West Pastoral and West Coast districts during Thursday then extend over the remainder of the agricultural area later on Thursday and early Friday morning. Falls of 20 to 60 mm are forecast over parts of the North West Pastoral, West Coast, Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas, Kangaroo Island, Mid North and the Mount Lofty Ranges including Adelaide. Isolated falls of 60 to 80 mm are possible, most likely over the Mount Lofty Ranges early Friday morning.

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#1401564 - 11/01/2017 18:24 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
models seem to be, on average, ramping up somewhat on each
run. at the very least they're not downgrading and with
the huge amounts of moisture associated with the feed the
orographic effect of the ranges is going to be very significant
indeed.
i'm not sure which if any of the models take into account
the effects of the lofty ranges being only 2000', none if
any of the rainfall progs are anything to go by.
i suppose any met worth their salt will take that into
account which is why models show 10mm on some up to
30-40mm on others and bom is forecasting up to 80mm around
lofty.
i wonder if emergency services will be preparing sandbags
tomorrow in the heat, if they are people who don't know
what's going on with the weather(and believe me there's
plenty of them around) are going to think they have been
out in the sun too long and cooked.
for adelaide and the ranges the best part of the rain
looks to occur after 6am friday so i might go out and
corepunch myself a mesoscale rainband.


TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1401573 - 11/01/2017 19:43 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1510
Loc: Bridgewater
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht

i wonder if emergency services will be preparing sandbags
tomorrow in the heat,


we got special sandbags. they fill themselves smile

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#1401586 - 11/01/2017 20:50 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 447
Loc: North Brighton, SA
I love the word "interaction" in the thread title, awesome grin
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1401650 - 12/01/2017 10:23 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14785
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Nice tropical infeed again, that is the theme of the summer this season and no surprise at all. And plenty more to come in the coming weeks.

Upper trough grabs the moisture and lifts it, with sfc front, should be a nice angled band of rain across western and southern ag areas chiefly (and mostly fairly coastal) but a little bit of inland penetration all the same. PWATS 60-65mm in the guts of the rainband which is very impressive so once the rain gets going properly, totals will tick over nicely as rain will get moderate to even heavy at times towards the back end of the rain say after about 6-7am when it comes down properly. Prob start sometime after 1-2am but patchy at first and also mostly S and W. Good dynamic lift, good moisture = rain. Not seeing any thunderstorms near us, closest prob N or W EP and beyond into the NW Pastoral tonight and tomorrow again well N of Port Aug.

Falls probably 25-35mm for Adelaide, 40-60mm for the hills. General 20-30mm for most other areas affected, tapering off to less than 15mm as one goes further inland.

TS cool

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#1401661 - 12/01/2017 11:59 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS


For people in the Adelaide Metropolitan, Mount Lofty Ranges, West Coast, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Mid North, Kangaroo Island, Upper South East, Lower South East and parts of the Flinders, Murraylands and North West Pastoral districts.

Issued at 11:10 am Thursday, 12 January 2017.
A cold front and associated upper trough will move into the far west of SA late today and continue to move eastwards across the State during Friday morning. A very moist, tropical airmass will extend across the State ahead of the cold front and develop into a rain band with thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday.
Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop in the far west of the State late today and extend east across the remainder of the agricultural areas early Friday morning.
Strong northwesterly winds are expected to develop ahead of the cold front over agricultural areas early Friday morning. Damaging winds, locally averaging 50-65 km/h with gusts in excess of 90 km/h are forecast, particularly over the elevated areas, eastern slopes of the Mount Lofty Ranges and with thunderstorms.
Locations which may be affected include Adelaide, Port Lincoln, Whyalla, Mount Gambier, Ceduna and Naracoorte.

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#1401672 - 12/01/2017 13:41 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
this is crazy, more bloody wind, damn i hate wind, not as
bad as last time but prolly another 20m bucks down the
drain for s.a. power networks.
the ground is soft and boggy just about everywhere, this
will be just another straw that will buckle a few more
camels under.
i dont usually post charts, just comment on them, but this
is gunna save me a thousand words.

for those of you who don't know what that is or what
it means then basically it's saying the atmosphere is
saturated with close 100% humidity and clouded out from
about 1500' to 50,000' which means any sort of
uplift whether it be orographic, convective, vertical
mixing or frontal forcing is going to cause this lot
to wring itself out like a wet sponge that's just
been lifted out of a bucket of water and rain on you
like a water cannon at a protest march.
ahh what the hell.......bring it on.

TH

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#1401690 - 12/01/2017 14:45 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
JohnC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 151
Loc: Adelaide, South Australia
Channel 7 News Facebook post - "South Australians told to get ready for a "once in ten-year" summer storm that will hit late tonight.
Holidaymakers and campers told to cut trips short, with flash flooding and strong winds on the way."
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http://jcroucher.com/weather/

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#1401692 - 12/01/2017 15:00 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1510
Loc: Bridgewater
the end is near

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#1401701 - 12/01/2017 15:30 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: Eevo]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6735
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Eevo
the end is near

Or orographic heaven wink .
_________________________
Only the most naive gamblers bet against physics, and only the most irresponsible bet with their grandchildrens resources.

-- William H. Calvin.

[A quote about abrupt weather pattern changes occurring within decades.]

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#1401705 - 12/01/2017 16:17 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
xenon2000 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/05/2010
Posts: 35
Loc: Waterloo Corner
Everyone's in panic mode. I work for a certain utility whose name is still mud around these parts at the moment , and we have just had tomorrow's rostered days off cancelled in anticipation.

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#1401711 - 12/01/2017 16:34 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2026
Loc: Clare, SA
Certainly a nice drop will be had in some places but the wind will be nowhere near the extent of the December event (85 knot 850mb, vs 50 knot 850mb this event). I doubt rainfall will be anywhere near as severe as the last either. I'd like to be wrong, but just looks like a decent summer rain event with some strong winds around to me.

If you believe GFS it's going to be a huge 'letdown' if ones expecting the totals BoM is. Has the heavy falls clipping the west and southern coasts, outside of that just dribs and drabs.

Access R and EC showing promise, I guess that's why they are confident?

Out of the centre of focus up here, but I'll honestly be more than happy if we get more than 15mm total.
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http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1401721 - 12/01/2017 17:20 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: xenon2000]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6735
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: xenon2000
Everyone's in panic mode.

Panic?? It [the main rain] hasn't even started yet. Be prepared perhaps smile ?!


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (12/01/2017 17:25)
_________________________
Only the most naive gamblers bet against physics, and only the most irresponsible bet with their grandchildrens resources.

-- William H. Calvin.

[A quote about abrupt weather pattern changes occurring within decades.]

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#1401734 - 12/01/2017 17:57 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2047
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Ahoy me harties best to plunder and pillage the supermarket and BCF then hunker down in the galley to await ye once in a 10 year event before we set sail grin cheers cause it looks to be a real wet and soggy day ahead

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#1401735 - 12/01/2017 18:00 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17410
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
OMG this is so over-hyped by the media and the BOM its not funny - its actually creating a sense of panic indeed. Even having friends ringing me up worried about it and wanting my opinion. frown

fwiw, I'm expecting around 20-25mm here, but if Access still comes off then maybe we could see 40-50mm but even then, it STILL doesnt call for the hyperbole going around...

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#1401742 - 12/01/2017 18:15 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Matt_30 Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2008
Posts: 62
Loc: Adelaide
I felt that for the Dec 27-28 event the BoM were far too slow in getting a warning out for Adelaide, particularly given the time of year, people not really taking notice of media. This time, way too far the other way given that this will be nothing like that event, particularly in terms of wind.

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#1401743 - 12/01/2017 18:17 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 181
Loc: Renmark
I pillaged the bottle shop just incase I run out of beer and the puddles cut me off.

Someone should start harvesting fertilizer from the media, great business opportunity...

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#1401747 - 12/01/2017 18:25 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
pump it up i say, the bigger the bubble the more
spectacular the burst.
i'm simply foaming at the mouth over all these
thunderstorms over elevated areas and
eastern slopes they're predicting........not.
over caution is the name of the game, but not
for those who get lumbered with the pointy end
of the stick.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1401754 - 12/01/2017 18:53 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 181
Loc: Renmark
yeah it'll no doubt be another fizzer. Fizzers have been the running gag since the epic events of November. I bet if we get 5mm and a couple bolts of lightning we will all be hearing our favourite armageddon superlatives in the news tomorrow. Herp de derp

Meanwhile I am going to enjoy a nice warm evening on the back deck on the river with some beer.


Edited by Galaxyman (12/01/2017 18:53)

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#1401756 - 12/01/2017 18:58 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 497
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
I sold 6 generators today. Still have about 40 in stock. Media is making people panic

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