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#1401809 - 12/01/2017 22:46 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 473
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Just starting to rain here now.

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#1401810 - 12/01/2017 22:49 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3094
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
And now for the latest forecast:

Weather

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#1401811 - 12/01/2017 22:52 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: TranslucidusW]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2051
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Arrrgh me harties the only keel hauling that will be done is the scalps of ye big wigs feeding the ye old media hyped up news arrrharha not only that the scurvy dogs will be walking the plank too

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#1401813 - 12/01/2017 23:04 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 463
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Ok, getting heavier now...
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1401814 - 12/01/2017 23:05 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6782
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Originally Posted By: teckert
Naz, the bom are feeding the media....

BoM has 100% chance of 20 to 70 mm tomorrow, 2 mm tonight...that's a big range of totals (Hills)...I think it's called a difference in interpretation...or not enough real info, or something smile . What about 20-30, 30-40, 50-70, etc.?

Never mind, doesn't matter. When the gauge starts ticking over know soon enough smile.
It doesn't mean 100% chance of 20-70mm. It means there's a 100% of at least 0.2mm, a 50% chance of at least 20mm, and a 25% chance of at least 70mm.

I understand that, Ill wait until it falls.

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#1401815 - 12/01/2017 23:09 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Town&country Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/11/2014
Posts: 52
Loc: Perth - Adelaide
Wow, Did I miss the weather? I just woke up and the paging site seems to be inundated with nothing... And the rain gauge is well full from sweat in anticipation:) I can say I survived the Adelaide 2017 storm of the century
_________________________
"Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward." Leonardo da Vinci

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#1401817 - 12/01/2017 23:35 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 473
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Some good looking cloud blobs out there:



Yum Yum! I can actually smell the rain now :-)

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#1401818 - 12/01/2017 23:58 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
some of those blobs near newman had tops pushing 60,000'
light rain, 3.5mm so far.

TH

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#1401819 - 13/01/2017 00:01 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14800
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
This won't be a fizzer in my eyes because the gap between expectation and result will be pretty damn close. And I'm certanly not expecting anything as intense as Dec 28 lets put it that way.

Nice initial little band now, 2-5mm here and there, before a break and then the main band from the decayed deep convection over the Far West. Found an overshootto 60,000ft before, anvil shield around 45-48,000ft, some very big storms out there that's for sure, will spread into nice rain but nothing unworldly. I'll give myself around 27mm in the southern suburbs, should be a bit better than the N burbs.

TS cool

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#1401820 - 13/01/2017 00:45 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 185
Loc: Renmark
Sounds about as exciting as getting a root canal with no anesthetic. Dec 28 was like getting a glass bottle shattered in the ass with no anesthetic.

60,000ft tall storms are pointless when they are not occurring here. They might aswell be on Jupiter.

Atleast there is some nice summer warmth (apart from the weekend). Big disgusting cold outbreak on the latest ACCESS at the end of the run though, hope it doesn't eventuate. If we can't get storms, then I expect heat. Unfortunately, BSCH GFS is trying to import the same vile blue fungus at the end of its run. Let's pray it changes. Southerly rot is not welcome.


Edited by Galaxyman (13/01/2017 00:51)

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#1401821 - 13/01/2017 01:20 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: Galaxyman]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 473
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Galaxyman
They might as well be on Jupiter.


Well they just bloody well hurry up and get me a ??? to get there!
Earth really is small. We need *bigger weather*

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#1401823 - 13/01/2017 02:38 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1523
Loc: Bridgewater
biggest wind gust so car, 18km;h

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#1401827 - 13/01/2017 05:02 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
wow the noarlunga temp graph looks good.
temp at 10:00 was 31 then it started lightly raining
and dropped to just over 20 in 2hrs.
then it stopped raining and over 3hrs climbed back up
to over 31 and held for a while but has just gone
back into freefall and currently at 24.1 and no rain.
looks like that overnight minimum was well and truly
shafted anyway.

TH


Edited by ThD Ht (13/01/2017 05:11)

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#1401830 - 13/01/2017 07:26 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
puddles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 164
Loc: Reynella, SA
Getting a reasonable fall down here now but no wind yet.

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#1401832 - 13/01/2017 07:30 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
steady light rain for the last hour slowly increasing
in intensity with the emphasis on 'slowly'.
just over 4mm now, temp 21.7, DP18.5, RH82%,
no wind, situation sweet.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1401834 - 13/01/2017 08:03 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
latest GFS has temp and DP trace running pretty much
vertical to 10,000' with cloud base starting around
11-12,000' and 100%RH through to about 40,000'.
i would have thought frontal forcing would have wrung
this thing out a bit harder than what it is, pity
there's not a decent ass kicking trigger to shove it
up this rainband properly. hopefully as the morning
moves on things will ramp up a bit but looking at
radar and vis sat it's looking pretty ordinary for
anything exciting or noteworthy, however, having
said that this is still a very nice temperature
moderating rainband for january and am definitely
not peeved off.
up to 7mm now


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#1401835 - 13/01/2017 08:23 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1330
Loc: Mareeba
Hi all, I have a question regarding Adelaide's radar and was hoping someone might be able to answer if for me. I am originally from Adelaide and was use to seeing a radar look like Adelaide's has since 8pm last night and only getting a few mm. Then I moved to FNQ where a radar that looked the same would mean widespread 100-200+mm falls.
My question is are radars sensitivity adjusted differently relative to the area? So what is classed as moderate/heavy rain capable of flooding in SA is a lot lighter than what is needed to cause flooding in FNQ.
_________________________
2017 Daily Obs

Mareeba
MTD: 9.2mm
YTD: 690.4mm

Mareeba
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm


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#1401838 - 13/01/2017 08:39 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
adelaide buckland radar is completley off with
the pixies and is a load of BS with accurate
indications of rainfall amounts. check the
composite overlays from ceduna, woomera, and
mt. gambier when there is a broadscale rain event
occurring, they are far more accurate in their
indication of rainfall rates. on the composite
you can see the gross deliniation between adelaide
and the others.

surface dp and temp slowly getting closer together,
lower level stratus at about 60-70% streaming over
at around 3000'
looking at my 30' date palm wind vane its bearly
moving.

TH

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#1401841 - 13/01/2017 09:00 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
continued from above yer sensitivity is adjusted to
give the best overall pic of rain,
maybe the country radars are a linear scale and
buckland park is a logarithmic scale allowing more
emphasis on the lower scale without over saturating
the upper scale, i don't know, what i do know is when
you put buckland park next to the others they are
chalk and cheese.
to the second part of your question flooding is
dependant on terrain and previous rainfall just like
anywhere but adelaide is most certainly more easily
subject to more flooding from less rain than you are
up there, by a factor of prolly about 5:1. a quick
50mm will have a lot of people jumping up and down
for sandbags. the whole floodin/ rain amount thing
is complex and cant be discussed in length here but
i hope i've said enuff to answer your questions.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1401847 - 13/01/2017 09:31 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1330
Loc: Mareeba
Thanks for the reply TH.
I had never really noticed too much before but the other day we had a much less impressive looking radar and in 4.5 hours I recorded 50+mm. Which led me to thinking that is was adjusted because of how easily Adelaide floods.

Had a look at the composite and as you said "chalk and cheese". You can clearly see the intensity change when it hits the Adelaide radar.


Edited by Simmo FNQ (13/01/2017 09:33)
_________________________
2017 Daily Obs

Mareeba
MTD: 9.2mm
YTD: 690.4mm

Mareeba
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm


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