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#1401522 - 11/01/2017 14:01 SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017
Happy Birthday StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1619
Loc: Uleybury
Very late Thursday and Friday set to be fairly wet as a cold front will interact with a upper level trough with tropical infeed

Falls of 20-60 with isolated falls up to 80 in the hills
I'd be happy with 30mm


First flood watch is out for a fair chunk of the state

INITIAL FLOOD WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH WEST PASTORAL, WEST COAST, LOWER AND EASTERN EYRE PENINSULA, YORKE PENINSULA, KANGAROO ISLAND, MID NORTH AND THE MOUNT LOFTY RANGES INCLUDING ADELAIDE.

Issued at 12:47 pm CDT on Wednesday 11 January 2017
By the Bureau of Meteorology, South Australia.

A front and associated upper trough will move into the far west of the State late on Thursday, then over western and southern districts during Friday morning. This front and upper trough will interact with high levels of moisture and develop into a rain band over the west on Thursday before extending over central and eastern districts early Friday morning. The rain band will then contract northwards and weaken later Friday morning before clearing during the afternoon.

Riverine and flash flooding, and road inundation are possible across the watch area later Thursday and Friday morning.

Weather Forecast:
Areas of rain and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the North West Pastoral and West Coast districts during Thursday then extend over the remainder of the agricultural area later on Thursday and early Friday morning. Falls of 20 to 60 mm are forecast over parts of the North West Pastoral, West Coast, Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas, Kangaroo Island, Mid North and the Mount Lofty Ranges including Adelaide. Isolated falls of 60 to 80 mm are possible, most likely over the Mount Lofty Ranges early Friday morning.

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#1401564 - 11/01/2017 18:24 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
models seem to be, on average, ramping up somewhat on each
run. at the very least they're not downgrading and with
the huge amounts of moisture associated with the feed the
orographic effect of the ranges is going to be very significant
indeed.
i'm not sure which if any of the models take into account
the effects of the lofty ranges being only 2000', none if
any of the rainfall progs are anything to go by.
i suppose any met worth their salt will take that into
account which is why models show 10mm on some up to
30-40mm on others and bom is forecasting up to 80mm around
lofty.
i wonder if emergency services will be preparing sandbags
tomorrow in the heat, if they are people who don't know
what's going on with the weather(and believe me there's
plenty of them around) are going to think they have been
out in the sun too long and cooked.
for adelaide and the ranges the best part of the rain
looks to occur after 6am friday so i might go out and
corepunch myself a mesoscale rainband.


TH
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#1401573 - 11/01/2017 19:43 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1542
Loc: Bridgewater
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht

i wonder if emergency services will be preparing sandbags
tomorrow in the heat,


we got special sandbags. they fill themselves smile

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#1401586 - 11/01/2017 20:50 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: North Brighton, SA
I love the word "interaction" in the thread title, awesome grin
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1401650 - 12/01/2017 10:23 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14826
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Nice tropical infeed again, that is the theme of the summer this season and no surprise at all. And plenty more to come in the coming weeks.

Upper trough grabs the moisture and lifts it, with sfc front, should be a nice angled band of rain across western and southern ag areas chiefly (and mostly fairly coastal) but a little bit of inland penetration all the same. PWATS 60-65mm in the guts of the rainband which is very impressive so once the rain gets going properly, totals will tick over nicely as rain will get moderate to even heavy at times towards the back end of the rain say after about 6-7am when it comes down properly. Prob start sometime after 1-2am but patchy at first and also mostly S and W. Good dynamic lift, good moisture = rain. Not seeing any thunderstorms near us, closest prob N or W EP and beyond into the NW Pastoral tonight and tomorrow again well N of Port Aug.

Falls probably 25-35mm for Adelaide, 40-60mm for the hills. General 20-30mm for most other areas affected, tapering off to less than 15mm as one goes further inland.

TS cool

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#1401661 - 12/01/2017 11:59 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS


For people in the Adelaide Metropolitan, Mount Lofty Ranges, West Coast, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula, Mid North, Kangaroo Island, Upper South East, Lower South East and parts of the Flinders, Murraylands and North West Pastoral districts.

Issued at 11:10 am Thursday, 12 January 2017.
A cold front and associated upper trough will move into the far west of SA late today and continue to move eastwards across the State during Friday morning. A very moist, tropical airmass will extend across the State ahead of the cold front and develop into a rain band with thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday.
Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop in the far west of the State late today and extend east across the remainder of the agricultural areas early Friday morning.
Strong northwesterly winds are expected to develop ahead of the cold front over agricultural areas early Friday morning. Damaging winds, locally averaging 50-65 km/h with gusts in excess of 90 km/h are forecast, particularly over the elevated areas, eastern slopes of the Mount Lofty Ranges and with thunderstorms.
Locations which may be affected include Adelaide, Port Lincoln, Whyalla, Mount Gambier, Ceduna and Naracoorte.

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#1401672 - 12/01/2017 13:41 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
this is crazy, more bloody wind, damn i hate wind, not as
bad as last time but prolly another 20m bucks down the
drain for s.a. power networks.
the ground is soft and boggy just about everywhere, this
will be just another straw that will buckle a few more
camels under.
i dont usually post charts, just comment on them, but this
is gunna save me a thousand words.

for those of you who don't know what that is or what
it means then basically it's saying the atmosphere is
saturated with close 100% humidity and clouded out from
about 1500' to 50,000' which means any sort of
uplift whether it be orographic, convective, vertical
mixing or frontal forcing is going to cause this lot
to wring itself out like a wet sponge that's just
been lifted out of a bucket of water and rain on you
like a water cannon at a protest march.
ahh what the hell.......bring it on.

TH

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#1401690 - 12/01/2017 14:45 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
JohnC Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/02/2011
Posts: 152
Loc: Adelaide, South Australia
Channel 7 News Facebook post - "South Australians told to get ready for a "once in ten-year" summer storm that will hit late tonight.
Holidaymakers and campers told to cut trips short, with flash flooding and strong winds on the way."
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#1401692 - 12/01/2017 15:00 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1542
Loc: Bridgewater
the end is near

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#1401701 - 12/01/2017 15:30 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: Eevo]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6844
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Eevo
the end is near

Or orographic heaven wink .
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#1401705 - 12/01/2017 16:17 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
xenon2000 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/05/2010
Posts: 35
Loc: Waterloo Corner
Everyone's in panic mode. I work for a certain utility whose name is still mud around these parts at the moment , and we have just had tomorrow's rostered days off cancelled in anticipation.

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#1401711 - 12/01/2017 16:34 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2059
Loc: Clare, SA
Certainly a nice drop will be had in some places but the wind will be nowhere near the extent of the December event (85 knot 850mb, vs 50 knot 850mb this event). I doubt rainfall will be anywhere near as severe as the last either. I'd like to be wrong, but just looks like a decent summer rain event with some strong winds around to me.

If you believe GFS it's going to be a huge 'letdown' if ones expecting the totals BoM is. Has the heavy falls clipping the west and southern coasts, outside of that just dribs and drabs.

Access R and EC showing promise, I guess that's why they are confident?

Out of the centre of focus up here, but I'll honestly be more than happy if we get more than 15mm total.
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#1401721 - 12/01/2017 17:20 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: xenon2000]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6844
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: xenon2000
Everyone's in panic mode.

Panic?? It [the main rain] hasn't even started yet. Be prepared perhaps smile ?!


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (12/01/2017 17:25)
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#1401734 - 12/01/2017 17:57 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2061
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Ahoy me harties best to plunder and pillage the supermarket and BCF then hunker down in the galley to await ye once in a 10 year event before we set sail grin cheers cause it looks to be a real wet and soggy day ahead

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#1401735 - 12/01/2017 18:00 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
OMG this is so over-hyped by the media and the BOM its not funny - its actually creating a sense of panic indeed. Even having friends ringing me up worried about it and wanting my opinion. frown

fwiw, I'm expecting around 20-25mm here, but if Access still comes off then maybe we could see 40-50mm but even then, it STILL doesnt call for the hyperbole going around...

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#1401742 - 12/01/2017 18:15 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Matt_30 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2008
Posts: 62
Loc: Adelaide
I felt that for the Dec 27-28 event the BoM were far too slow in getting a warning out for Adelaide, particularly given the time of year, people not really taking notice of media. This time, way too far the other way given that this will be nothing like that event, particularly in terms of wind.

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#1401743 - 12/01/2017 18:17 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 192
Loc: Renmark
I pillaged the bottle shop just incase I run out of beer and the puddles cut me off.

Someone should start harvesting fertilizer from the media, great business opportunity...

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#1401747 - 12/01/2017 18:25 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
pump it up i say, the bigger the bubble the more
spectacular the burst.
i'm simply foaming at the mouth over all these
thunderstorms over elevated areas and
eastern slopes they're predicting........not.
over caution is the name of the game, but not
for those who get lumbered with the pointy end
of the stick.

TH
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#1401754 - 12/01/2017 18:53 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 192
Loc: Renmark
yeah it'll no doubt be another fizzer. Fizzers have been the running gag since the epic events of November. I bet if we get 5mm and a couple bolts of lightning we will all be hearing our favourite armageddon superlatives in the news tomorrow. Herp de derp

Meanwhile I am going to enjoy a nice warm evening on the back deck on the river with some beer.


Edited by Galaxyman (12/01/2017 18:53)

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#1401756 - 12/01/2017 18:58 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 511
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
I sold 6 generators today. Still have about 40 in stock. Media is making people panic

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#1401770 - 12/01/2017 19:24 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Heat Trough Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2005
Posts: 164
Loc: Kadina, SA.
Is everyone sorted for the impending Armageddon?

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#1401771 - 12/01/2017 19:27 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: willitrainagain]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6844
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: willitrainagain
Media is making people panic

Bold - Then maybe listen (read) the Bureau's forecasts for some rationality if nothing else... mad . [Pinch of salt]


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (12/01/2017 19:32)
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#1401776 - 12/01/2017 19:53 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 363
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
Is it just me or anyone else having issues getting any radar to load up? Can't get any to work phone or PC.

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#1401777 - 12/01/2017 20:02 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 511
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
I sold 6 generators today. Still have about 40 in stock. Media is making people panic

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#1401778 - 12/01/2017 20:05 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Having the same issue Eevo.

And it looks like a decent rain band to me with heavy falls and the odd embedded storm both likely.

Warnings have been spot on and all warranted, our weather is getting more severe as time goes on, the earth is screwed!!
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1401780 - 12/01/2017 20:23 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
our weather is getting more severe as
time goes on, the earth is screwed!!

the earth is fine it doesn't give a fat rats clacker
what we do with or to it,
it's the people that are screwed.
radar and everything else loading fine here.
looks like a bit of an ntree coming across the gulfs,
that big stuff on the border is going to drill down on
us like a bullet train. cloud tops touching -90 which
puts them around 55,000', that's trophy class stuff.

Originally Posted By: Heat Trough
Is everyone sorted for the impending Armageddon?

yep, Armageddon ready for it.

TH

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#1401781 - 12/01/2017 20:26 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17456
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Naz, the bom are feeding the media....

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#1401785 - 12/01/2017 20:39 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Yeah the earth is fabulous lol... Oh dear
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1401786 - 12/01/2017 20:39 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Matt_30 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2008
Posts: 62
Loc: Adelaide
Starting to get some measurable falls on EP. Nearing 4mm at Cummins.

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#1401787 - 12/01/2017 20:51 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1542
Loc: Bridgewater
woah!!! almost 5mm

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#1401789 - 12/01/2017 21:09 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: teckert]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6844
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: teckert
Naz, the bom are feeding the media....

BoM has 100% chance of 20 to 70 mm tomorrow, 2 mm tonight...that's a big range of totals (Hills)...I think it's called a difference in interpretation...or not enough real info, or something smile . What about 20-30, 30-40, 50-70, etc.?

Never mind, doesn't matter. When the gauge starts ticking over know soon enough smile.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (12/01/2017 21:14)
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#1401792 - 12/01/2017 21:24 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
how about 0-200mm, can't go far wrong with that.
bloody rainfall totals. i stay right away from 'em.
best way is to work out how much you're gunna get
after it's over and check your rainguage.
it's gunna rain, some will get heaps some will get
bugger all. i'm just happy we're getting all these
juicy (pun intended)systems coming through smack
bang in the middle of summer instead of day after
day of boring as batsheet heat and fine weather.

just started the first vestiges of dribbles here.
(and im talking about rain, not me poke )

TH
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#1401795 - 12/01/2017 21:50 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Heat Trough Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/01/2005
Posts: 164
Loc: Kadina, SA.
This could very well end up being a big fizzer.

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#1401799 - 12/01/2017 21:58 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: Seira]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10084
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Originally Posted By: teckert
Naz, the bom are feeding the media....

BoM has 100% chance of 20 to 70 mm tomorrow, 2 mm tonight...that's a big range of totals (Hills)...I think it's called a difference in interpretation...or not enough real info, or something smile . What about 20-30, 30-40, 50-70, etc.?

Never mind, doesn't matter. When the gauge starts ticking over know soon enough smile.
It doesn't mean 100% chance of 20-70mm. It means there's a 100% of at least 0.2mm, a 50% chance of at least 20mm, and a 25% chance of at least 70mm.
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
June 2017 Rainfall: 217.6mm (Jun Avg. 138.7mm) // June 2017 Raindays: 17 (Jun Avg. 10.5 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1208.4mm (Jan-Jun Avg. 940.3mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 97 (Jan-Jun Avg. 77.4 raindays)

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#1401801 - 12/01/2017 22:06 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: rstewart84]
TranslucidusW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/11/2003
Posts: 2662
Loc: Southern Adelaide
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
Ahoy me harties best to plunder and pillage the supermarket and BCF then hunker down in the galley to await ye once in a 10 year event before we set sail grin cheers cause it looks to be a real wet and soggy day ahead


And arrrrg! I'd be battening the Scuppers and Keel Hauling the Captain and ye Big Wigs.
The Floggings will continue till further notice or until there's enough blue sky!
Arrrrg!
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I don't know anything . . .
Sheidow Park Weather




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#1401802 - 12/01/2017 22:14 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Matt_30 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2008
Posts: 62
Loc: Adelaide
Nullarbor up to 15mm.

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#1401803 - 12/01/2017 22:17 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 756
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
Will be interesting to see what we do get.

It's a sticky 31.5 C and 35% humidity here in Gulfview Heights. Going to be a bad night for sleeping I think.
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#1401804 - 12/01/2017 22:18 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9634
Loc: Mid North, SA
December 28/29 saw just north of the little hamlet of Bower get 159mm... we got 14mm... such is the fickleness of Mother Nature... like TH said, best to check the rain gauge "after" the event. wink
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#1401807 - 12/01/2017 22:29 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1635
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
It's spotting ......and the wind has picked up...
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Adelaide forcefield monitor smile

Jan 44.1 mm
Feb 24.6 mm
Mar 3.6 mm
Apr 44.7 mm
May 39.6 mm
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017 YTD 156.6 mm
2016 571
2015 369.5
2014 460.5
2013 504
2012 417
2011 598.5
2010 553

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#1401808 - 12/01/2017 22:37 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: Ryan Hothersall]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: Ryan Hothersall
It's a sticky 31.5 C and 35% humidity here in Gulfview Heights. Going to be a bad night for sleeping I think.


Not if you have ducted air-conditioning, a nice 22deg and snuggled under a quilt smile

Radar seriously overestimating, just a few spots falling.



Edited by Jet entrance (12/01/2017 22:39)
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1401809 - 12/01/2017 22:46 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 501
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Just starting to rain here now.

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#1401810 - 12/01/2017 22:49 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3215
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
And now for the latest forecast:

Weather

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#1401811 - 12/01/2017 22:52 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: TranslucidusW]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2061
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Arrrgh me harties the only keel hauling that will be done is the scalps of ye big wigs feeding the ye old media hyped up news arrrharha not only that the scurvy dogs will be walking the plank too

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#1401813 - 12/01/2017 23:04 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Ok, getting heavier now...
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1401814 - 12/01/2017 23:05 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6844
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Originally Posted By: teckert
Naz, the bom are feeding the media....

BoM has 100% chance of 20 to 70 mm tomorrow, 2 mm tonight...that's a big range of totals (Hills)...I think it's called a difference in interpretation...or not enough real info, or something smile . What about 20-30, 30-40, 50-70, etc.?

Never mind, doesn't matter. When the gauge starts ticking over know soon enough smile.
It doesn't mean 100% chance of 20-70mm. It means there's a 100% of at least 0.2mm, a 50% chance of at least 20mm, and a 25% chance of at least 70mm.

I understand that, Ill wait until it falls.
_________________________
*Kindness is our ally.

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#1401815 - 12/01/2017 23:09 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Town&country Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/11/2014
Posts: 52
Loc: Perth - Adelaide
Wow, Did I miss the weather? I just woke up and the paging site seems to be inundated with nothing... And the rain gauge is well full from sweat in anticipation:) I can say I survived the Adelaide 2017 storm of the century
_________________________
"Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward." Leonardo da Vinci

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#1401817 - 12/01/2017 23:35 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 501
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Some good looking cloud blobs out there:



Yum Yum! I can actually smell the rain now :-)

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#1401818 - 12/01/2017 23:58 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
some of those blobs near newman had tops pushing 60,000'
light rain, 3.5mm so far.

TH

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#1401819 - 13/01/2017 00:01 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14826
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
This won't be a fizzer in my eyes because the gap between expectation and result will be pretty damn close. And I'm certanly not expecting anything as intense as Dec 28 lets put it that way.

Nice initial little band now, 2-5mm here and there, before a break and then the main band from the decayed deep convection over the Far West. Found an overshootto 60,000ft before, anvil shield around 45-48,000ft, some very big storms out there that's for sure, will spread into nice rain but nothing unworldly. I'll give myself around 27mm in the southern suburbs, should be a bit better than the N burbs.

TS cool

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#1401820 - 13/01/2017 00:45 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 192
Loc: Renmark
Sounds about as exciting as getting a root canal with no anesthetic. Dec 28 was like getting a glass bottle shattered in the ass with no anesthetic.

60,000ft tall storms are pointless when they are not occurring here. They might aswell be on Jupiter.

Atleast there is some nice summer warmth (apart from the weekend). Big disgusting cold outbreak on the latest ACCESS at the end of the run though, hope it doesn't eventuate. If we can't get storms, then I expect heat. Unfortunately, BSCH GFS is trying to import the same vile blue fungus at the end of its run. Let's pray it changes. Southerly rot is not welcome.


Edited by Galaxyman (13/01/2017 00:51)

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#1401821 - 13/01/2017 01:20 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: Galaxyman]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 501
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Galaxyman
They might as well be on Jupiter.


Well they just bloody well hurry up and get me a ??? to get there!
Earth really is small. We need *bigger weather*

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#1401823 - 13/01/2017 02:38 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1542
Loc: Bridgewater
biggest wind gust so car, 18km;h

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#1401827 - 13/01/2017 05:02 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
wow the noarlunga temp graph looks good.
temp at 10:00 was 31 then it started lightly raining
and dropped to just over 20 in 2hrs.
then it stopped raining and over 3hrs climbed back up
to over 31 and held for a while but has just gone
back into freefall and currently at 24.1 and no rain.
looks like that overnight minimum was well and truly
shafted anyway.

TH


Edited by ThD Ht (13/01/2017 05:11)

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#1401830 - 13/01/2017 07:26 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
puddles Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/01/2007
Posts: 168
Loc: Reynella, SA
Getting a reasonable fall down here now but no wind yet.

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#1401832 - 13/01/2017 07:30 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
steady light rain for the last hour slowly increasing
in intensity with the emphasis on 'slowly'.
just over 4mm now, temp 21.7, DP18.5, RH82%,
no wind, situation sweet.

TH
_________________________



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#1401834 - 13/01/2017 08:03 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
latest GFS has temp and DP trace running pretty much
vertical to 10,000' with cloud base starting around
11-12,000' and 100%RH through to about 40,000'.
i would have thought frontal forcing would have wrung
this thing out a bit harder than what it is, pity
there's not a decent ass kicking trigger to shove it
up this rainband properly. hopefully as the morning
moves on things will ramp up a bit but looking at
radar and vis sat it's looking pretty ordinary for
anything exciting or noteworthy, however, having
said that this is still a very nice temperature
moderating rainband for january and am definitely
not peeved off.
up to 7mm now


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#1401835 - 13/01/2017 08:23 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1346
Loc: Mareeba
Hi all, I have a question regarding Adelaide's radar and was hoping someone might be able to answer if for me. I am originally from Adelaide and was use to seeing a radar look like Adelaide's has since 8pm last night and only getting a few mm. Then I moved to FNQ where a radar that looked the same would mean widespread 100-200+mm falls.
My question is are radars sensitivity adjusted differently relative to the area? So what is classed as moderate/heavy rain capable of flooding in SA is a lot lighter than what is needed to cause flooding in FNQ.
_________________________
2017 Daily Obs

Mareeba
MTD: 12.6mm
YTD: 721.0mm

Mareeba
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm


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#1401838 - 13/01/2017 08:39 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
adelaide buckland radar is completley off with
the pixies and is a load of BS with accurate
indications of rainfall amounts. check the
composite overlays from ceduna, woomera, and
mt. gambier when there is a broadscale rain event
occurring, they are far more accurate in their
indication of rainfall rates. on the composite
you can see the gross deliniation between adelaide
and the others.

surface dp and temp slowly getting closer together,
lower level stratus at about 60-70% streaming over
at around 3000'
looking at my 30' date palm wind vane its bearly
moving.

TH

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#1401841 - 13/01/2017 09:00 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
continued from above yer sensitivity is adjusted to
give the best overall pic of rain,
maybe the country radars are a linear scale and
buckland park is a logarithmic scale allowing more
emphasis on the lower scale without over saturating
the upper scale, i don't know, what i do know is when
you put buckland park next to the others they are
chalk and cheese.
to the second part of your question flooding is
dependant on terrain and previous rainfall just like
anywhere but adelaide is most certainly more easily
subject to more flooding from less rain than you are
up there, by a factor of prolly about 5:1. a quick
50mm will have a lot of people jumping up and down
for sandbags. the whole floodin/ rain amount thing
is complex and cant be discussed in length here but
i hope i've said enuff to answer your questions.

TH
_________________________



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#1401847 - 13/01/2017 09:31 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1346
Loc: Mareeba
Thanks for the reply TH.
I had never really noticed too much before but the other day we had a much less impressive looking radar and in 4.5 hours I recorded 50+mm. Which led me to thinking that is was adjusted because of how easily Adelaide floods.

Had a look at the composite and as you said "chalk and cheese". You can clearly see the intensity change when it hits the Adelaide radar.


Edited by Simmo FNQ (13/01/2017 09:33)
_________________________
2017 Daily Obs

Mareeba
MTD: 12.6mm
YTD: 721.0mm

Mareeba
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm


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#1401853 - 13/01/2017 10:26 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Simmo FNQ Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2012
Posts: 1346
Loc: Mareeba
How does the Sellicks radar go in re to accuracy? I know it has a big blind spot from KI to Southern YP.
_________________________
2017 Daily Obs

Mareeba
MTD: 12.6mm
YTD: 721.0mm

Mareeba
2016: 491.4mm
2015: 826.2mm


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#1401861 - 13/01/2017 11:00 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 501
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
10mm in my gauge - steady light rain still falling.

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#1401868 - 13/01/2017 11:28 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: Simmo FNQ]
Happy Birthday StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1619
Loc: Uleybury
Originally Posted By: Simmo FNQ
How does the Sellicks radar go in re to accuracy? I know it has a big blind spot from KI to Southern YP.


Bad. Even as far as Clare it fails.

Only way to describe it as when we did a comparison to it VS Doppler, Doppler would show a Dark Red core, Sellicks will show that as yellow.

It's due to the trees that surround it even though some have been cut down and has improved it a slight touch but I can remember it fail on a massive note in January of 2005 when we had an afternoon thunderstorm roll through, Sellicks showed light blue even tho it belted down, about an inch fell out of it, Doppler wasn't up back then but was in the process of being built or something close to.

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#1401869 - 13/01/2017 11:32 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Happy Birthday StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1619
Loc: Uleybury
Well once again the media and BoM made this look 100x worse than what it actually was, only 12.6mm so far and by the current radar there is not much to go, 30 odd mins left i'd say.

Very ashamed of the media and how dare they still say that Adelaide is under Severe Weather Warnings when they were dropped prior it hitting, they use outdated information. The weather is like driving really, every bit of info is new as it is constantly changing.

36mm is the highest I can see at Ceduna with 25-35mm elsewhere in the West.

General falls of 10-15mm by 9AM in the Adelaide Area with 4-8mm since.

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#1401880 - 13/01/2017 12:11 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 756
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
So far today in Gulfview Heights, 12.6 mm rain.
_________________________
My Stuff on the Web
www.ryanhothersall.net

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#1401883 - 13/01/2017 12:20 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 192
Loc: Renmark
My overnight minimum was 28.8C so a very warm night as I suspected. Ofcourse it'll be obliterated by the cold start yesterday but in my records I note the overnight min when it differs from the 24hr min.

Rain just started here. Dewpoint almost 24C at the BOM station. I have 29.7/22.1 at my place.

ACCESS current run looks so beautiful, after this weekend cold front, it'll keep the red line over us right through!


Edited by Galaxyman (13/01/2017 12:24)

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#1401886 - 13/01/2017 12:33 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
just got back from a drive down to marlston, someone musta
taken a dump in the noarlunga aws rainguage, 23.5mm here
and about to clear so won't quite make the inch.

TH
_________________________



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#1401895 - 13/01/2017 13:49 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2061
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Well another failure needless to say i am less than impressed with the hyped up weather warnings of a once in 10 year summer storm when all that was delivered was humid and wet conditions with a steady fall of light rain....hopefully the next significant weather event we get comes off as forecast not fall in a gigantic heap like this one did

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#1401899 - 13/01/2017 13:56 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 192
Loc: Renmark
That is hilarious, 1 in 10 year storm. Where the hell did those muppets pull that tripe from anyway? Moderate rain here and tropical outside.

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#1401907 - 13/01/2017 14:29 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 501
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
15.5mm in the gauge now - looks like it has moved away to the east.

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#1401922 - 13/01/2017 15:53 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
oh well, thanks to the aws rain gauge screwing up looks
like noarlunga's rainfall stats are stuffed for the rest
of the year. it will be recorded as 0 for today. PFFFFT.
ended up with another 0.2 since my last post, so that
makes 23.7mm total for me.

TH
_________________________



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#1401989 - 13/01/2017 20:28 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14826
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Media called it storm... Bureau event for Jan. Due to thunderstorm being mentioned n STW/SWW etc media put 2 and 2 together and ran with storm for all and sundry.

But for me, the event panned out exactly as expected. No hype, no fizzer. Just a good summer rainband but lacking the grunt due to lack of a powerful forcing mechanism, trigger was good but broad and not convective enough nor slow enough to really get things going. Was too mobile to get large totals going despite 65MM PWATS. Expected 27mm for my place and ended up with 25.2mm which is a pleasing drop.

More interesting tropical feeds ahead...not over yet and good chance they'll make this one look fairly stock standard.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (13/01/2017 20:28)

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#1402019 - 13/01/2017 22:38 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1635
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
13.2 mm total for this system. measured between 6am to 4 pm this arvo.
Just been for a drive in the hills around MOUNT BARKER, WOODSIDE etc,,,, still green everywhere for this time of year, which is incredible, could we just keep getting rainband after rainband all summer long untill winter? and then we get a normal winter and have flooding due to saturated soils???? bring on june , july and lets see what happens.
_________________________
Adelaide forcefield monitor smile

Jan 44.1 mm
Feb 24.6 mm
Mar 3.6 mm
Apr 44.7 mm
May 39.6 mm
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017 YTD 156.6 mm
2016 571
2015 369.5
2014 460.5
2013 504
2012 417
2011 598.5
2010 553

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#1402028 - 14/01/2017 00:48 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: Weather Guru]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 501
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Weather Guru
still green everywhere for this time of year, which is incredible, could we just keep getting rainband after rainband all summer long untill winter?


That would be fun wouldn't it!

Cycling to work today and part of my route takes me along Third Creek up the UniSA Magill Campus end of things - the creek is once again flowing well which for this time of the year is most unusual. Hasn't really stopped even though we are well past winter.

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#1402030 - 14/01/2017 00:52 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 192
Loc: Renmark
Gotta laugh at the BOM and the media. 1 in a 10 year storm, severe weather warnings a day in advance! We got some rain here, holy crap what a catastrophe. What a bunch of dumb asses. Herp de derp. Seriously, wtf wrong with these morons? Seriously they can't forecast rain to a reasonable accuracy less than 24hrs out? Don't tell me they couldn't see that this was only ever going to be moderate event and all the hype and severe weather warnings were never warrented? LOL

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#1402033 - 14/01/2017 04:27 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
i'm glad it turned out the way it did, a nice drop of
rain to keep every ones gardens green and virtually no
one got smashed, blacked out or flooded.
enough already. nobody needs, wants or deserves any more.
this was a bit like a big bully coming at you and you think
'oh no here we go again' and you close your eyes and wait
for the inevitable smashing and as he walks past he
gives you a pat on the head, a lolly and says 'have a
nice day'.
having said that it doesn't mean he's not going to whack
you the next time.

TH
_________________________



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#1402036 - 14/01/2017 07:43 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
roves Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/02/2005
Posts: 1632
Loc: Paringa-Riverland
perfect little top up with 12mm here to keep my sheep feed ticking along just nicely.
_________________________
YTD-74mm AVE-260mm

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#1402043 - 14/01/2017 08:37 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 756
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
What I got gtom this system here in Gulfview Heights.

Jan 12: 0.2 mm
Jan 13: 14.4 mm
Jan 14: 0.0 mm

Total: 14.6 mm
_________________________
My Stuff on the Web
www.ryanhothersall.net

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#1402055 - 14/01/2017 10:15 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
a luttle mire to tge lrft Ryan, 'fr' insyead of 'gt'
tgere's a preciew buyyon nesr to the suvmit.
nit thst it's rewuired fir a sinple tupo but ut is
nuch eadier to oroof resd a tupo in the preciew.
crazy

other than the lofty area it looks like the southern
burbs faired near the top of the list of totals
which is surprising in one way but not in another.

TH
_________________________



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#1402103 - 14/01/2017 15:01 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 477
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
a luttle mire to tge lrft Ryan, 'fr' insyead of 'gt'
tgere's a preciew buyyon nesr to the suvmit.
nit thst it's rewuired fir a sinple tupo but ut is
nuch eadier to oroof resd a tupo in the preciew.
crazy


TH


_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1402113 - 14/01/2017 15:29 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: Galaxyman]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6844
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Galaxyman
Gotta laugh at the BOM and the media. 1 in a 10 year storm, severe weather warnings a day in advance!

Who or what source actually said "1 in a 10 year storm."? If people don't want further disappointment and unwanted hype, I'd suggest know the difference smile .

On the other hand, if you don't mind hype or being sort of disappointed, no need to fret.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (14/01/2017 15:36)
_________________________
*Kindness is our ally.

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#1402148 - 14/01/2017 18:55 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: JohnC]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
Originally Posted By: JohnC
Channel 7 News Facebook post - "South Australians told to get ready for a "once in ten-year" summer storm that will hit late tonight.
Holidaymakers and campers told to cut trips short, with flash flooding and strong winds on the way."


this was posted by JohnC on page 1
maybe from here you PM JohnC to clarify the source of
the channel 7 news face book post so as to
answer the question you posted. who knows JohnC may
even save you some effort and post the answer to
your question here in this thread.
without checking with Gm i'll draw a long straw and
assume Gm read johnCs post and thought ch.7 media
posted a statement from the bom and i would bet the
journo goaded the "one in ten year" statement out
of the bom, they sure as hell wouldn't have
bothered volunteering information like that.
a one in ten year event is reasonably insignificant
and no big deal which is what i thought when i first
read it and took it with a grain of salt anyway.

Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
a luttle mire to tge lrft Ryan, 'fr' insyead of 'gt'
tgere's a preciew buyyon nesr to the suvmit.
nit thst it's rewuired fir a sinple tupo but ut is
nuch eadier to oroof resd a tupo in the preciew.
crazy


TH




oh, sorry about that Je, i forgot to hit the review
button and proof read my post.
good one. laugh

TH
_________________________



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#1402184 - 14/01/2017 21:25 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6844
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
Originally Posted By: JohnC
Channel 7 News Facebook post - "South Australians told to get ready for a "once in ten-year" summer storm that will hit late tonight.
Holidaymakers and campers told to cut trips short, with flash flooding and strong winds on the way."


this was posted by JohnC on page 1
maybe from here you PM JohnC to clarify the source of
the channel 7 news face book post so as to
answer the question you posted. who knows JohnC may
even save you some effort and post the answer to
your question here in this thread.
without checking with Gm i'll draw a long straw and
assume Gm read johnCs post and thought ch.7 media
posted a statement from the bom and i would bet the
journo goaded the "one in ten year" statement out
of the bom, they sure as hell wouldn't have
bothered volunteering information like that.
a one in ten year event is reasonably insignificant
and no big deal which is what i thought when i first
read it and took it with a grain of salt anyway.

I noticed the post JohnC made regarding the 7-News Facebook, but decided because the quoted stuff it didnt contain detailed information about the weather situation, I didnt take much notice of it. Yes, the source of the information could be clarified, maybe just for peace-of-mind and a little more perspective, however that depends on how much time and effort one wishes to spend going to those lengthsI dont really think it's warranted.

I noticed the Gm dont know that reference, maybe short-hand for something mentioned above also. As I dont know what it is and cannot recall if it was in a post I read sometime, Im not going to pursue it. I dont really like making assumptions that have no evidence/backup, whatever or going over and over and over things all the time, so Im going to leave it at that.

I hope that provides some clarity smile . In future, when the thread title is changed to include certain words, Ill reconsider posting.

Edit: My apologies for not recognising what Gm might mean sooner.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (14/01/2017 21:29)
_________________________
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#1402261 - 15/01/2017 10:27 Re: SA - overhyped tropical infeed with upper level trough and cold front interaction. January 12-14 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Happy Birthday StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1619
Loc: Uleybury
Total for the system was 19.8mm, not bad to start off the year, good to see a good fall over double digits in January as well instead of the pissy 1-4mm we'd usually get.

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