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#1401229 - 09/01/2017 14:04 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2105
Loc: Clare, SA
Snowtown has had 17mm so far today (and it's currently pouring). Add this to their fall the other week and they've had 112mm in the last fortnight. The harvested paddocks around here are turning green from reshooting!
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#1401294 - 09/01/2017 21:29 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Markus]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 552
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Markus
Snowtown has had 17mm so far today (and it's currently pouring). Add this to their fall the other week and they've had 112mm in the last fortnight. The harvested paddocks around here are turning green from reshooting!


Great time to go camping I'd suggest!!

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#1401304 - 10/01/2017 01:46 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Town&country Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/11/2014
Posts: 52
Loc: Perth - Adelaide
Might be able to cut another crop with this rain haha
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#1401334 - 10/01/2017 09:19 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
i'm not going to bother to start a thread for thursday/fri,
if someone else wants to no probs but it's pretty much just
a bog standard short lived bit of heat, a shortwave surface
based trough ahead of a rainband, a clearing sw change and
'NO'storms, yer we got heat, yer we got moisture but that
simply ain't the be all and end all of storms. there is
nothing progged at all in the way of LIs, Cape or significant
ToTs. and it's because of hot upper levels of atmosphere,
the rain is between the trough and clearing change and only
occurs because of high pwats and forcing. the hot uppers are
actually doing everything its power to stifle everything as
much as it possibly can before the sw change kicks its butt
the hell outta here.
one thing to watch out for is the thurs. overnight temp,
it's currently progged at around the mid 20s bit that's
with little or no cloud cover, if anyone gets slabbed
then expect high 20s-low30s again.
that's just the way i see it.
for those of you who like heat your in luck, enjoy it.
for those of you who are looking for a bit of rain, your
in luck, enjoy it.
for those of you who want storms, get a life.
anyone else got an opinion keep it to yourself.(only joking),
bring it on trendsetters.

TH
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#1401342 - 10/01/2017 10:32 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17491
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yer doesnt appear to be a storm event thats for sure, but it could well end up being quite a noteworthy rain event for January.
Models still all over the place with totals, but could see anything between 10mm and 40mm.

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#1401354 - 10/01/2017 11:52 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
i reckon anywhere beween 0 and 100mm poke
yer the only storm this lot is going to generate is in
a teacup.
but seriously your right Tek, we could get a decent bit
of drizzle out of this, if this keeps up for another month
getting enough rain to keep the soil damp, cockys won't
be harvesting a second crop but they sure as hell'll be
balin' hay.
my mate up at bute had that much rain in the second half
of last year that he lost his entire crop of dryland
lucerne to over wet, like not from trying to bail it, he
lost the plants in the ground.

TH

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#1401425 - 10/01/2017 19:39 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7030
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
i'm not going to bother to start a thread for thursday/fri,
if someone else wants to no probs but it's pretty much just
a bog standard short lived bit of heat, a shortwave surface
based trough ahead of a rainband, a clearing sw change and
'NO'storms, yer we got heat, yer we got moisture but that
simply ain't the be all and end all of storms.

I would start a new thread, but I want rain...

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#1401429 - 10/01/2017 20:09 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 513
Loc: North Brighton, SA
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1401434 - 10/01/2017 21:03 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
i had a bit of a discussion with TS on this rain band and
going on past similar occurrences that linear bullseye has
the potential to end up up to 100 km N or S of that prog,
as things get closer to the actual event that distance will
narrow somewhat.
also looking at previous gfs raincast runs for the same
time frame this ooz run has seriously upgraded the amount
and narrowed the target area.
EC is progging 40+mm in side the target area which is the
same as gfs atm and actually reinforces the position of
the target area somewhat.
i'm still a bit concerned over these low overnight
minimums for thurs night, gfs is progging plenty of
cloud cover atm which will be a nice doona to keep
in thursdays temps. keep an eye on that.......

TH
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#1401439 - 10/01/2017 21:31 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 200
Loc: Renmark
Thursday night could be really hot if GFS comes off and there is cloud cover, the 584 line just touches my area and 850 temps are in excess of 25C. Bring it on! Looks like the damn southerlies will invade Adelaide before 9am so stuff it up for them but we'll see.

Another hot and muggy day here, geez the humidity has really kicked up since Christmas, there hasn't been any real dry strong northerly heat, just humidity with relatively light winds.


Edited by Galaxyman (10/01/2017 21:40)

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#1401449 - 11/01/2017 00:14 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 200
Loc: Renmark
Moomba Airport 38.9C at 11:30pm

And this is only the beginning up there....

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#1401456 - 11/01/2017 05:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1593
Loc: Bridgewater
friday, 40mm predicted....

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#1401457 - 11/01/2017 05:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
gfs 12z run along with other models have moved the higher
rainfall area south and retracted westward a bit.
still hope that things will come back, just not much.

if you really want some heat Gm then you should try
bourke@47 on friday although the pool of maximum heat
seems to be dropping south to cobar and griffith on
later runs, they may upgrade from 45 and 44 respectivly.


TH

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#1401513 - 11/01/2017 12:53 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 363
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
New rain gauge to try out so bring it on.

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#1401519 - 11/01/2017 13:48 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17491
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...

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#1401850 - 13/01/2017 09:56 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
carried on from another thread re:- radar differences

here's a couple of radar shots showing the clear deliniation between adelaide and others.

adelaide and mt. gambier/woomera
you can see the cutoff is around tintinara, if mt.gambier
was the same as adelaide then there would be broken
yellow all the way down to portland, when i lived at
naracoorte i found mt. gambier to be a true and faithful
indicator of rainfall amounts.
the same applies to woomera where the cutoff is about
pt. augusta/iron knob.
sticks out like the proverbial dogs b...b...breakfast.


here's one for ceduna, even more hard core......


one would hope that with all the well matured and
tweaked modern technology that these so called
professional organizations could come up with
something better than something that looks like
it's been slapped together by a ten year old.
might have to look at other city's radars and see
what's going on with them unless someone is
prepared to comment and enlighten me and others.

TH
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#1402196 - 14/01/2017 22:20 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 513
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Very surprised no one is talking about or "hyping" up the major storm outbreak for most of SA including Adelaide Thursday and overnight into Friday. Latest 06z GFS is off the 🌍
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1402229 - 15/01/2017 06:26 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
why on earth are you very surprised Je?
everyone has been sitting glued to their computer
screens gnawing their fingernails back to their
elbows in trepid anticipation waiting for you to
take the first swing. laugh
now that you mention it........
firstly GFS 06z and 18z runs can be used as a guide
when there's nothing else to snack on but when one
has got GFS 00z, 12z, ACCESS and EC best not to go
there..
GFS 06z and 18z are based on a more limited dataset
than the other two and are best left alone to play
with the pixies.
secondly if you go back through the runs you will
notice that 06,18z are more up than 00,12z making
the runs between each other like an up and down
roller coaster sine wave. having said that going
back through the list of runs for a particular chart
one will notice a general downward trend down for
all runs like a sinewave that holds it's amplitude
but slopes downward so basically gfs has been in
downgrade mode for the last coupla' days.
thirdly even if one goes by the 06z run i certainly
wouldn't saying it's off the planet, ok for mid
north up but pretty ordinary and marginal at best
for anything south.
if you want off the planet and like intermediate
runs check BSCH 06z thu12th run, thu19th 730pm
li,cape,temp,pw and steering winds. i'm hanging
out to see something like that one day out instead
of seven......could still happen.
however....having said all that.......
ACCESS and EC are showing something pretty good
atm too, you can just about set your calender
by these moisture feeds running every seven days
atm.
my biggest bane with what's going on is those mongrel
indian ocean ridges constantly gate crashing and
stuffing up our heat and moisture party and sending
poor'ol Galaxyman into psychotic fits of beer enhanced
rage.
rather than just one day wonders what we need is a
good juicy 4+ day heat and moisture fest preferably
with the max peaking over a sat/sun. i might put my
order in now, if i'm licky it might get delivered
before the end of summer.
ok, enuff said for now, now i'll just sit here and
gnaw my elbows up to my shoulders waiting for
someone to start a thread. laugh

TH
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#1402263 - 15/01/2017 10:31 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1642
Loc: Uleybury
GFS might look promising now but that can easily disappear off the face of the planet next run. And being at least 4-5 days out it's too far to call, if it holds I'll get one up with a bit of detail should it remain by Tuesday, if it's out by 48 hours we'd get a better picture.

But yes we are due to a January thunderstorm.

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#1402264 - 15/01/2017 10:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Jet entrance]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
Very surprised no one is talking about or "hyping" up the major storm outbreak for most of SA including Adelaide Thursday and overnight into Friday. Latest 06z GFS is off the 🌍


Fear not, it has been well covered in the FB groups and chat around the traps, models varying things a lot. Big storms inland but Adelaide is the cutoff between storms or just rain remants atm. Potential for another good soak.

TS cool

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