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#1402675 - 17/01/2017 17:12 SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 510
Loc: North Brighton, SA
TH & TS can run the numbers, I'll just put up what our BOM say...

ACCESS-R awesome.
GFS awful.

Adelaide Forecast Thursday...
"Humid. Partly cloudy. Slight chance (20%) of patchy rain in the early morning. Very high (90%) chance of showers developing late afternoon, becoming rain at times during the evening. A thunderstorm likely late afternoon and evening. Heavy falls possible with thunderstorms. Winds east to southeasterly 15 to 25 km/h increasing to 30 km/h before turning north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h in the late morning."

Totals...
"Cumulative rainfall totals until midnight Friday are expected to be generally 10 to 20 mm, with isolated falls of 20 to 40 mm possible with thunderstorms."
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1402681 - 17/01/2017 17:32 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1641
Loc: Uleybury
While again this is one of the trickiest systems, I will ignore all maps until at least 12 hours out.

While this does look to be again a fairly complex yet dynamic setup with multiple features, it won't take much to change it.

BoM have no clue how much rain will fall as the totals have gone up to 10-30mm from 4-15mm yesterday so it is too hard to predict but I'd say 10-35mm widespread.

This stage I can see most of the storm activity will be Up in the Mid North. Good DEEP layer of cape so with the sfc heating shouldn't take that much to get them going. Small cap also so they should not take long to break through.

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#1402682 - 17/01/2017 17:42 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2092
Loc: Clare, SA
GFS going for fairly stationary storms through the Southern Flinders overnight Thurs/Fri in a highly unstable environment on the 00z run. Given the way CAPE lingers, could be a bloody good night of storms, not to mention the risk of flooding. Might not see much in Radelaide from this system, EC and ACCESS much better for Adelaide but daym, Thursday really has my attention now.

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http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1402685 - 17/01/2017 17:51 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 510
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Awesome write up SC, and yes Markus you will be in wonderland btl's.

And just to confirm my models quotes re ACCESS-R & GFS refer to Adelaide. Further north it goes off like an 🏧 in Amsterdam!!
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1402687 - 17/01/2017 17:55 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 510
Loc: North Brighton, SA
And Cumulative rainfall totals are now...

". Cumulative rainfall totals until midnight Saturday are expected to be generally 10 to 30 mm, with isolated falls of 30 to 60 mm possible with thunderstorms."

Make no bare arse toads about it, there will be some massive storms out there somewhere!!!


Edited by Jet entrance (17/01/2017 17:56)
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1402688 - 17/01/2017 18:00 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1884
Loc: Semaphore SA
So many capes o_o

I like 'a thunderstorm likely' - hope it stays that way.
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1402724 - 17/01/2017 20:48 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Pooley72 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/01/2017
Posts: 32
Loc: Seacliff Park
Hi all,
Long time lurker - first time contributor to this forum. Very jealous of the images uploaded by various users here and the tremendous knowledge shown by others.

Just wondering, what is everyones impressions of what is happening between Cleve and Whyalla at the moment. Something just brewing out of nowhere

From Spencer Gulf F6
_________________________
My PWS: www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=INOARLUN2

Jan: 52.2mm
Feb: 32.8mm
Mar: 28.2mm
Apr: 39.6mm
May: 37.8mm
Jun: 14.4mm
Jul: 87.3mm
Aug:
Sep:
Oct:
Nov:
Dec:
2017: 205.0mm

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#1402726 - 17/01/2017 21:10 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 195
Loc: Renmark
It's interference.

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#1402728 - 17/01/2017 21:29 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14845
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Welcome Pooley! yea mate that is interference, notorious is the Buckland Park radar for that false echo and others around the coast of KI. Very frustrating!!! the dual pol upgrade in May cannot come soon enough. Be USA standard radar then.

System wise, still need to wait and see for us down here but Mid North and parts of EP are going to cop a right old fashioned slaughtering. Big, strong, wet thunderstorms with very heavy rain and flooding potential under them. Very convective in nature so impossible to pick target areas yet but Mid North a no brainer for an Adelaide chaser.

Adelaide wise, EC/ACCESS-R give us a lot more than GFS...but it's coming back south a touch. Key is upper trough to south over Bight rocketing east during afternoon, will rapidly increase upper divergence and trigger off thunderstorms with extra lift. Messy areas of rain also in less unstable areas. Looks pretty good all round though...and then a follow up system, weaker on the 23rd. Not bad for Jan....more like a humid November with deep tropical air. It's so rare to see such mobility in systems in January....normally blocks of heat are set by now. Negative SAM is helping us keep things moving and allowing the major monsoonal moisture intrusion to hook up to troughs and fronts moving through..

TS cool

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#1402729 - 17/01/2017 21:29 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
yer more capes than draculas closet,
what you doin' Markus, you gunna be able to up and atom
on these suckers on thursday.
just had a chinwag with TS over this upcoming......
EP is looking impressive with those high capes and a
good sharp fast moving upper trough. best looking
western EP early then upper EP to upper spencer gulf.
models are showing a bit or rain, if you can call it that.
iron triangle looking to get flushed clear down to
pt. lincolnn if GFS has its way.
were not so bad but still looking at a decent drop again,
adelaide marginal for a storm but because were on the
cusp the scales could easily tip in our favour and give
us a ripper or it could just as easily go the other way,
boils down to 'dont take your eye off the ball'.
def. no good going into detail with something like this,
way too volatile and fluid.

just checked that radar Pooley, yer it's pretty bad,
not sure but being doplar radar the only thing that
comes to my mind is it may be a heavy inversion.
got me intrigued now. TS will know what it is, i'll
mention it next time i talk to him.

and by the way, congrats on your first post.
moochus welcomus to dah forumus.
may it be the first of many.
i see you're just around the corner and up the
creek...i mean....road from me.
hope you got a rainguage to post rain stats when
they occur.

edit:-
bloody hell TS, you coulda waited another 60 seconds. poke

TH
_________________________



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#1402734 - 17/01/2017 21:54 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17478
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
fwiw, I'm thinking 25-35mm for city. Higher totals in Mid North, Flinders, Upper EP.
Not overly interested in storms as I can't chase... poke

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#1402739 - 17/01/2017 22:08 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1636
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
I've been monitoring my old favourite, OCF
http://australianweathernews.com/OCF/OCF_023.HTM
OCF has progged 28 mm a few days ago for ELIZABETH. It went down to 18 mm this morning and is now back up to 36 so GO FIGURE. I say pick a number between 18 - 36. Lets say 27 mm,, and thats what i'd work on,,, take off a bit of 2 day old exaggeration and 15 - 25 mm,,, is about the mark...
Now sit back and watch what happens.
Nice and coolish outside now after a wind change. GOODBYE STINKING HOT WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS.
_________________________
Adelaide forcefield monitor smile

Jan 44.1 mm
Feb 24.6 mm
Mar 3.6 mm
Apr 44.7 mm
May 39.6 mm
June 14.4 mm
July 73.5 mm
Aug 8.7 mm
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017 YTD 253.2 mm
2016 571
2015 369.5
2014 460.5
2013 504
2012 417
2011 598.5
2010 553

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#1402741 - 17/01/2017 22:12 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Thunderstruck]
Pooley72 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/01/2017
Posts: 32
Loc: Seacliff Park
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Welcome Pooley! yea mate that is interference, notorious is the Buckland Park radar for that false echo and others around the coast of KI. Very frustrating!!! the dual pol upgrade in May cannot come soon enough.


Thanks for the welcome smile

Yeah, I've noticed the interference around KI on many occasions. Just haven't seen it in that location before on Eyre Peninsula. Looking the same over Port Lincoln now as well and moving up the coast. Would the activity S of KI be the same sort of thing? There seems to be a good deal of cloud as a part of the front as seen at http://satview.bom.gov.au/ but looking at the way the precipitation has a very rounded edge I would assume that is just more crap from the Buckland Park doppler:


Originally Posted By: ThD Ht

(snip)
and by the way, congrats on your first post.
moochus welcomus to dah forumus.
may it be the first of many.
i see you're just around the corner and up the
creek...i mean....road from me.
hope you got a rainguage to post rain stats when
they occur.
(snip)


Thanks as well mate cheers
Yeah, I'm a southerner. Bought first house in Reynella East actually. Have also lived at port Noarlunga, Christies Beach & Downs and have also live in Millicent, Coonalpyn and Pinnaroo in a earlier lives shocked

Re rain gauge, well I have a HP1003 which is an Ambient Weather 1001 clone attached to my Wunderground account (link in my sig). I love the rain and last year was an exceptional year. Not only very wet but in my opinion a good deal windier than usual as well.
Had some impressive wind gusts last year at Christies - This one was my favourite - Big gust 12-7-16
Since moving to Seacliff Park we've had some decent wind and rain and lots of cool thunderstorms as well.
Looking forward to another adventurous year of weather.

Todays observation? Jeez it cooled down quick today once that southerly came through:
Code:
7:01 PM	34.5 C

Code:
8:02 PM	29 C

Code:
9:03 PM	22.2 C


Pooley
_________________________
My PWS: www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=INOARLUN2

Jan: 52.2mm
Feb: 32.8mm
Mar: 28.2mm
Apr: 39.6mm
May: 37.8mm
Jun: 14.4mm
Jul: 87.3mm
Aug:
Sep:
Oct:
Nov:
Dec:
2017: 205.0mm

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#1402746 - 17/01/2017 22:28 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Pooley72]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1884
Loc: Semaphore SA
Originally Posted By: Pooley72
Hi all,
Long time lurker - first time contributor to this forum. Very jealous of the images uploaded by various users here and the tremendous knowledge shown by others.

Just wondering, what is everyones impressions of what is happening between Cleve and Whyalla at the moment. Something just brewing out of nowhere


Nuh frown it used to trick me too - worth checking out the BOM info for individual radars - http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/radar/info/sa_info.shtml#buckland-park64

Good to have some fresh blood smile don't feel intimidated by the technical talk - I don't know what they're on about a lot of the time but I've picked up a few things over the years.
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1402749 - 17/01/2017 22:48 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1641
Loc: Uleybury
Yer that area is always a hot spot on the radar

Also welcome, you'll learn a lot here from us smile

I'll be happy with 30mm from this system, an inch minimum.


Pooley one word of advice, go to Bunnings and buy yourself a Nylex 1000 rain gauge for $23, their a great back up and very accurate rain gauge to own. The fine offsets stations like you have, I've noticed they do underrread and I know this by owning one for a few years and there's a mass difference of 300mm+ at times

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#1402753 - 17/01/2017 23:09 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17478
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
The echoes south of the state is rain.

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#1402754 - 17/01/2017 23:18 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
berga1987 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 332
Loc: Malvern, Adelaide, Aus
Welcome Pooley. With regards to Echo's, you can always check the visible/IR satellite images to check if there is any interesting looking cloud over the area you see the echo.

http://satview.bom.gov.au/
_________________________
I wish Mt Lofty was more lofty, another 2km or so would suffice.

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#1402755 - 17/01/2017 23:32 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Pooley72]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 195
Loc: Renmark
Originally Posted By: Pooley72


Re rain gauge, well I have a HP1003 which is an Ambient Weather 1001 clone attached to my Wunderground account (link in my sig). I love the rain and last year was an exceptional year. Not only very wet but in my opinion a good deal windier than usual as well.
Had some impressive wind gusts last year at Christies - This one was my favourite - Big gust 12-7-16
Since moving to Seacliff Park we've had some decent wind and rain and lots of cool thunderstorms as well.
Looking forward to another adventurous year of weather.

Todays observation? Jeez it cooled down quick today once that southerly came through:
Code:
7:01 PM	34.5 C

Code:
8:02 PM	29 C

Code:
9:03 PM	22.2 C


Pooley


I got the same weather station grin These are actually pretty good. I find the temps to be quite accurate and haven't had problems with temps over reading in the sun with the default screen as some other stations out there apparently do. For the price it's a pretty nice setup. The rain does tend to under-read, like Stormcapture said. Officially, rain is measured just above ground level where wind is less likely to affect it. And in my case, there is a big ass tree which no doubt inhibits rainfall to some extent.





Edited by Galaxyman (17/01/2017 23:36)

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#1402759 - 18/01/2017 00:10 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Pooley72 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/01/2017
Posts: 32
Loc: Seacliff Park
Originally Posted By: StormCapture

...word of advice, go to Bunnings and buy yourself a Nylex 1000 rain gauge for $23...


Aha, the analogue precipitation capture device. Can't go too wrong there hey. Unfortunately our current residence (rented) does not lend itself nicely to an installation at this stage (no garden, surrounded by trees everywhere). But will bear in mind in future.

Originally Posted By: StormCapture

The fine offsets stations like you have, I've noticed they do underrread and I know this by owning one for a few years and there's a mass difference of 300mm+ at times

Indeed. When I had it down at Christies Beach it was really really bad as the tipping bucket system was very susceptible to vibration from the wind and my mounting solution (top of TV antenna) seemed to vibrate a lot in anything more than a sparrows fart of a breeze thereby spilling the contents of the aforementioned bucket before it had a chance to register. I missed a lot of rainfall recordings as a result of this. Where we are living now the unit is still mounted on the TV antenna but seems to be a whole lot more stable and has picked up all of the rainfall that we have had since we have been here. Has even recorded rainfall in sustained 60 km/h winds (with gusts of 80 km/h+) which I am happy enough with.

Originally Posted By: Galaxyman

I got the same weather station. These are actually pretty good.


Yep, I have been happy with it. Love the fact that it was relatively easy to setup and just worked out of the box. Had a bit of trouble with the first one I got with a humidity/temp sensor giving really stupid readings about 6 months after I got it. Managed to get a replacement under warranty from the QLD company that I purchased it from and this one has been working well.

My install location, not ideal but sufficient:


Anyways, enough about me. Glad that y'all appreciate the new blood here. Had a bit of trouble signing up but was sorted this afternoon.

Apologies @Jet entrance for the thread hijack. Hopefully this thread turns into something special on Thursday/Friday.
_________________________
My PWS: www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=INOARLUN2

Jan: 52.2mm
Feb: 32.8mm
Mar: 28.2mm
Apr: 39.6mm
May: 37.8mm
Jun: 14.4mm
Jul: 87.3mm
Aug:
Sep:
Oct:
Nov:
Dec:
2017: 205.0mm

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#1402762 - 18/01/2017 04:56 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
just elaborate one last thing pooley re. that radar
signature down south, it is rain and the rounded edge is
the radar cutoff, it's very pronounced sometimes and
others not so much, cross corelate radar signatures and
intensity with satellite charts to get an idea of what's
what.
don't be afraid to ask questions on anything.........

BTW, don't apologise to Je, he doesn't deserve it. poke

TH

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