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#1402804 - 18/01/2017 10:27 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1612
Loc: Uleybury
It'll do alright on the roof, good for wind but might get the odd higher reading temp from radiation from the roof but usually doesn't phase many.

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#1402805 - 18/01/2017 10:29 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1612
Loc: Uleybury
Anyway, rainfall totals are nothing but a Yo-yo being all up and down
GFS has around 15-25mm now, CMC around 10mm, OCF 15.0mm for the city, haven't seen EC yet so presume similar.

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#1402814 - 18/01/2017 10:54 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 463
Loc: North Brighton, SA
EC 25-50mm! More favorable towards Adelaide getting a hit from a storm.
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1402884 - 18/01/2017 15:27 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 185
Loc: Renmark
You can see on the satpic some nice convection north of a line from Sydney to Port Augusta. Within spitting distance, there is convection bonanza. The southerly wank attack *just* managed to ruin it for us, in addition to killing the heat. Look at all those popcorn storms on the Woomera radar, not only that, but raging heat. All that is going to waste, that's what I can't stomach.


Edited by Galaxyman (18/01/2017 15:33)

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#1402892 - 18/01/2017 16:24 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Galaxyman]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2051
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Yes sadly us innocent South Australians have been cursed with these pesky parasitic southerlies that don't understand that it is summer not winter the season they belong in

What do we need to go to get rid of this pesky and depressing southerly and return back to our usual hot weather pattern that is storm inducing

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#1402899 - 18/01/2017 17:02 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1523
Loc: Bridgewater
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS

For people in parts of the
Flinders,
North West Pastoral and
North East Pastoral districts.

Issued at 3:19 pm Wednesday, 18 January 2017.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and damaging wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Coober Pedy, Roxby Downs, Leigh Creek, Marree, Hawker, Woomera, Amata, Arkaroola and the area around Emu Junction

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#1402900 - 18/01/2017 17:08 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: rstewart84]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
Yes sadly us innocent South Australians have been cursed with these pesky parasitic southerlies that don't understand that it is summer not winter the season they belong in

What do we need to go to get rid of this pesky and depressing southerly and return back to our usual hot weather pattern that is storm inducing



a 50gigaton thermonuclear detonation in the middle of
that indian ocean high should do the trick, that would
induce a weather pattern to die for.....and we would too.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1402907 - 18/01/2017 17:41 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
thatflashoflite Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 03/05/2015
Posts: 9
Loc: Burra, South Australia
I had a good one but the winds brought the pole down that it was on smash it, wasnt very happy.
now i just got a cheap one bunnings and seems to be just plain crap.

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#1402928 - 18/01/2017 20:20 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Bolt Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/01/2005
Posts: 362
Loc: Whyalla South Australia
Lawns mowed. New rain gauge up. Beers on ice. Last night shift tonight and 24 days off. Bring on tomorrow storms and cricket.

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#1402932 - 18/01/2017 20:36 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 463
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Finally some agreement between models, and rainfall totals are fairly close also..


ACCESS-R favours the Flinders 50-80mm, Adelaide 10mm
ACCESS-G favours the Mid-North & Southern Fl 10-30mm, Adelaide 10-20mm
GFS favours Flinders and upper Spencer 20-50mm, Adelaide 10-20mm
EC favours widespread upper EP - Flinders 50-80mm, Adelaide 10-20mm

Stormwise, looks like most of the storms will be North of Adelaide "on what models are currently forecasting". But don't be at all surprised if there is a massive storm or 2 drifting in from the NW towards Adelaide late arvo and into the evening
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1402933 - 18/01/2017 20:36 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Bolt]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1875
Loc: Semaphore SA
Originally Posted By: Bolt
Lawns mowed. New rain gauge up. Beers on ice. Last night shift tonight and 24 days off. Bring on tomorrow storms and cricket.


Fwoar that must feel pretty good. 24 days off - kicking it off in style with what will likely be an amazing show.

Hope something makes it to Adelaide - not really expecting it at this stage though. I'd rather keep my expectations low and be pleasantly suprised grin
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1402934 - 18/01/2017 20:41 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 185
Loc: Renmark
BOM's forecast says "Thunderstorm Likely" tomorrow for us shocked


Originally Posted By: rstewart84
Yes sadly us innocent South Australians have been cursed with these pesky parasitic southerlies that don't understand that it is summer not winter the season they belong in

What do we need to go to get rid of this pesky and depressing southerly and return back to our usual hot weather pattern that is storm inducing



Latest ACCESSG just about made me vomit. Wall to wall southerly dung heap all the way through. sick mad


Edited by Galaxyman (18/01/2017 20:43)

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#1402949 - 18/01/2017 22:05 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
berga1987 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 321
Loc: Malvern, Adelaide, Aus
All I have to say is, suffer in your undies. I love cold weather, and the sooner we get a drastic climate change that plunges us into an ice age the better. Damn the torpedoes, bring on the southerlies.
_________________________
I wish Mt Lofty was more lofty, another 2km or so would suffice.

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#1402951 - 18/01/2017 22:14 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17432
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
It's coming berga.. it's coming.

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#1402957 - 18/01/2017 23:02 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: berga1987]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 185
Loc: Renmark
Originally Posted By: berga1987
All I have to say is, suffer in your undies. I love cold weather, and the sooner we get a drastic climate change that plunges us into an ice age the better. Damn the torpedoes, bring on the southerlies.


You can have your cold in winter. Let us summer lovers enjoy our heat in, wait for it, SUMMER. How bout instead of foisting an ice age on us, you move to Alaska.


Edited by Galaxyman (18/01/2017 23:04)

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#1402960 - 18/01/2017 23:10 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1523
Loc: Bridgewater
need to share and take turns.

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#1402969 - 19/01/2017 03:11 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
i'm gunna pack up my supercell and tornado and go home.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1402972 - 19/01/2017 05:26 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
as far as the storm probablility chart goes on GFS,
from a distance one sees a beautiful mountain but
when i get close up to it all it turns out to be
is a mountain of garbage. all good for up north,
but down here is stuffed, the longwave trough can
only penetrate the southern ridge enough to give
some moisture and rain while all the good storms
are held north of a line through port wakefield.
the amount of moisture ripping down from up north
this summer is amazing just a pity the ridges are
stopping it from going chock-o-block.
lotsa summer yet, it'll catch the ridge off guard
and fluke one eventually........maybe.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1402975 - 19/01/2017 06:32 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Weather Guru Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2008
Posts: 1632
Loc: Munno Para , Northern Suburb o...
First threatening shower approaching from the west now over port Lincoln heading towards Minlaton and will get to Adelaide around between 9 and 11 am. Hopefully this clears after to give us some clear convective air FOR BIG BUSTY STORMS TO DEVELOP, but i fear this won't happen, but hope it will.
OR this shower could grow into something significant and dump on us,,,, i know what i would prefer smile
Either way,,, rain on the cards today. check your gutters and rain gauges peoples. maybe a bit of hail about for some.
Don't stand under the tram bridge for shelter on SOUTH ROAD or it might just collapse on you!
_________________________
Adelaide forcefield monitor smile

Jan 44.1 mm
Feb 24.6 mm
Mar 3.6 mm
Apr 33.6 mm
May
June
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2017 YTD 105.9 mm
2016 571
2015 369.5
2014 460.5
2013 504
2012 417
2011 598.5
2010 553

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#1402980 - 19/01/2017 08:31 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 463
Loc: North Brighton, SA
GFS continues to struggle with these set ups, whilst other models are not far behind.

If we just looked at one model for forecasting, wouldn't the world be a perfect place?? unfortunately we don't, and there isn't just one.

Both ACCESS models and EC are what BOM are basing there forecast on "I pressume". They are all the same as yesterday with perhaps an increase in rain totals for Adelaide.

Storms... well like TH said GFS says nothing for Adelaide, but other models show more promise so I guess we'll see later today.

Btw, GFS doesn't have this current blob of rain approaching on there most recent run 12z.
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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