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#1402982 - 19/01/2017 08:39 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 447
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Latest Aviation forecast...

ISOLATED RAIN W OF Pt Neill/Edinburgh EXTENDING TO BE SW OF Pt Neill/Salt Creek AT
10:30 AND SW OF KI/Naracoorte AT 18:30.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING N OF Pt Lincoln/Bordertown FROM
13:30, INCREASING TO OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS NW
OF Cleve/Eudunda/Peterborough FROM 14:30.
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

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#1402996 - 19/01/2017 10:27 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 181
Loc: Renmark
BOM's forecast is crazy.

"A thunderstorm likely in the evening. Showers and thunderstorms heavy at times later tonight."

I expect big things now, anything less than a light and sound spectacular will officially be a fizzer and there will be bitching, yes there will be bitching.

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#1402997 - 19/01/2017 10:35 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 497
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Watch this rain area approaching fall to pieces as is gets nearer

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#1403000 - 19/01/2017 11:02 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 447
Loc: North Brighton, SA
It's sliding South. Not a bad thing as we need clear air for the proper stuff later.
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1403001 - 19/01/2017 11:13 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Galaxyman]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1868
Loc: Semaphore SA
Originally Posted By: Galaxyman
BOM's forecast is crazy.

"A thunderstorm likely in the evening. Showers and thunderstorms heavy at times later tonight."

I expect big things now, anything less than a light and sound spectacular will officially be a fizzer and there will be bitching, yes there will be bitching.


Maybe they'll get it right for once JE smile

Hope hope hope.
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1403002 - 19/01/2017 11:13 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 181
Loc: Renmark
I for one will be 100% happy to see that rainband slide away and disappear. We don't need any boring hindrances siphoning off our fuel.


Edited by Galaxyman (19/01/2017 11:13)

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#1403003 - 19/01/2017 11:20 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 447
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Latest GFS has storms for us late arvo and into the evening grin

And big heavy dumpers, my favourite!!!


Edited by Jet entrance (19/01/2017 11:21)
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1403004 - 19/01/2017 11:26 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Matt_30 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2008
Posts: 62
Loc: Adelaide
Yeah was worried about sloppy rain bands this morning. If that muck is going to miss us that's a wonderful thing.

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#1403007 - 19/01/2017 11:34 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Galaxyman]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2047
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
A decent storm will do us some good down south here and a renewed faith in decent forecasting otherwise the big wigs will have to walk ye plank once again

I agree with Galaxyman in his statement that would love to see the rainband slide away and disappear but the pesky southerlies have to do the same thing so we can get back to traditional summer not this poor excuse like it is at the moment


Edited by rstewart84 (19/01/2017 11:34)

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#1403012 - 19/01/2017 12:54 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14785
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Still looking like plenty of storms around this evening. EC pretty much unmoved for days now and GFS fairly similar, but has had a slight southward shove over the last 24hrs which is good for things lining up. Given the upper trough is a big key here in deepening the sfc trough with minimal ridging below we should be fine for the sfc trough/low to have a nice progression SE. Charge cameras, clean gutters...should be a good inch for most of the metro tonight with bolts. Will erupt over EP and amongst upper trough before gap closes and all fills in with storms tending to rain/thundery rain later tonight, chiefly over and east of ranges. Fairly clean storms on EP and big ones across Mid North for a longer period than down here.

TS cool

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#1403013 - 19/01/2017 12:56 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: rstewart84]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14785
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
A decent storm will do us some good down south here and a renewed faith in decent forecasting otherwise the big wigs will have to walk ye plank once again

I agree with Galaxyman in his statement that would love to see the rainband slide away and disappear but the pesky southerlies have to do the same thing so we can get back to traditional summer not this poor excuse like it is at the moment


Don't expect much down your way mate this event is not really one for the LSE.

TS cool

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#1403014 - 19/01/2017 12:56 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2026
Loc: Clare, SA
First storms up on northern E.P. Dewpoints much better over there, higher dewpoints spreading their way east and south now. Should be a good day smile
_________________________
My Blogging site.

http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1403017 - 19/01/2017 13:16 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Chris #3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/02/2009
Posts: 1868
Loc: Semaphore SA
Cheers for the update TS and Markus, made my day...

Got a few cameras charged up. Going to try for some photos with my DSLR, timelapse in different directions with a bunch of cheap IP cams I picked up for $40 each - slow motion cap with the GoPro.


Edited by Chris #3 (19/01/2017 13:18)
_________________________
GFS Stormcast by BSCH




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#1403021 - 19/01/2017 13:30 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 447
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Still looking like plenty of storms around this evening. EC pretty much unmoved for days now and GFS fairly similar, but has had a slight southward shove over the last 24hrs which is good for things lining up. Given the upper trough is a big key here in deepening the sfc trough with minimal ridging below we should be fine for the sfc trough/low to have a nice progression SE. Charge cameras, clean gutters...should be a good inch for most of the metro tonight with bolts. Will erupt over EP and amongst upper trough before gap closes and all fills in with storms tending to rain/thundery rain later tonight, chiefly over and east of ranges. Fairly clean storms on EP and big ones across Mid North for a longer period than down here.

TS cool


Yes 18z GFS this morning was even more of a shove South..

Love the words "erupt" and "storms" in the same sentence, gives me chills smile
_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1403024 - 19/01/2017 14:23 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 447
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Latest ACCESS-R...

_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1403025 - 19/01/2017 14:25 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 447
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Latest EC....

_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1403026 - 19/01/2017 14:45 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 447
Loc: North Brighton, SA
It's growing larger....

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS

For people in the Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Flinders and parts of the West Coast, Yorke Peninsula, Mid North, North West Pastoral and North East Pastoral districts.

Issued at 1:57 pm Thursday, 19 January 2017.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and damaging wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Whyalla, Port Augusta, Port Pirie, Coober Pedy, Roxby Downs, Leigh Creek, Cleve, Marree and Hawker.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Secure or put away loose items around your property.
* Move cars under cover or away from trees.
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* Don't drive, ride or walk through flood water.
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains.
* Stay indoors, away from windows, while storms are nearby.
The next warning is due to be issued by 5:00 pm.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 215. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly

_________________________
“I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes”.
Elliot Goblet

Top
#1403029 - 19/01/2017 14:54 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 497
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Seems to be taking a while to get going. Not a great deal on EP
Or what I can see by the radar anyway

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#1403034 - 19/01/2017 15:42 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: willitrainagain]
Helen Offline
Moderator

Registered: 07/11/2001
Posts: 9631
Loc: Mid North, SA
Originally Posted By: willitrainagain
Seems to be taking a while to get going. Not a great deal on EP
Or what I can see by the radar anyway

Might want to look again... EP is lighting up the countryside, along with Hawker and surrounds. smile
_________________________
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm
Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm)
May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm)
Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm)
Total 2016 - 637.2mm



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#1403035 - 19/01/2017 15:43 Re: SA - Underhyped Trough with deep tropical moisture feed Rain & Storms HEAVY falls likely 18th-20th Jan 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 181
Loc: Renmark
Bit of fluff on the radar over the Riverland, it's not going to do anything except suppress valuable heating cry

I expect a bonanza tonight. The BOM is convinced we are going to cop it.

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