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#1402699 - 17/01/2017 18:35 Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Just a thread starter that I hope someone will embellish??

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#1402715 - 17/01/2017 20:05 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 925
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread 'p' 😀

Really hopping we get something tonight,
But can't help but think it might only be 1mm
At the most!!

I think the only hope for anything half decent
Will be Friday which hopefully can deliver at
Least 10mm??

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#1402819 - 18/01/2017 11:12 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2209
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Why too many Insect everywhere around House trying get inside looks like knows rain coming.

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#1402872 - 18/01/2017 14:28 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 925
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Sad to say last nights change totally
Died out and didn't produce a drop here😨
A lot cooler today with plenty of sun and the
Hair dryer is on!!

Really sweating on Fridays event now lol
(No pressure or anything just 10-20mm would
Be nice lol😉😉)

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#1402877 - 18/01/2017 14:46 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: doogasnow]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 539
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Sad to say last nights change totally
Died out and didn't produce a drop here😨
A lot cooler today with plenty of sun and the
Hair dryer is on!!

Really sweating on Fridays event now lol
(No pressure or anything just 10-20mm would
Be nice lol😉😉)


You are spot on Doogasnow. Though mild here the wind is sucking the moisture away. If Friday doesn't produce significant rain I'll be changin' my profile to Hanrahan an' sayin' "We'll all be rooned!"

Things are drying rapidly.

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#1402921 - 18/01/2017 18:52 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS is showing any useful rain to be confined to the Wonthaggi/Strezleckii's/Prom area - hope it comes off for that area, but wish we could have picked up 10mm or so dammit!!:




[edit] - TB - I heard a local lady recite an excellent version of the "ruin'd" poem on our local ABC yesterday!!


Edited by Petros (18/01/2017 18:54)

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#1403037 - 19/01/2017 15:46 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2209
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in the Central, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central
and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 3:36 pm Thursday, 19 January 2017.

WEATHER SITUATION:
A deepening low pressure trough over South Australia will approach western
Victoria tonight bringing very humid conditions southeastwards. As the trough
moves rapidly eastwards across Victoria on Friday, a low pressure centre will
develop along the trough. The low move away to the southeast early Friday
morning.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible in the Mallee, Wimmera
and the South West Forecast Districts during early Friday morning [midnight to
3am] before extending to the Northern Country, North Central and Central
Forecast districts by around 3am to 6am Friday. The heavy rain may extend to
eastern districts later in the morning.

Six hour totals of around 10mm to 40mm are likely with isolated higher falls of
40mm to 60mm
possible. There is the risk of isolated thunderstorms over the northwest of the
State during this
time.

Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo,
Shepparton, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong and Melbourne.

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#1403085 - 19/01/2017 18:34 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6412
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest model runs show some useful rain over most parts of Vic over the next 24 hours - GFS is the most pessimistic of the current runs:



For N Gippy, EC showing near 20mm, AccR about 16mm - so I'll regard anything over GFS's 7.5mm "a win smile ".

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#1403100 - 19/01/2017 19:47 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Rain band just about to come into Melbourne.
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#1403116 - 19/01/2017 20:23 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 639
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
That ADL radar!! shocked shocked !!! Can only hope ours looks like that in the morning lol.

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#1403120 - 19/01/2017 20:36 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Rain band just about to come into Melbourne.


What? crazy Do you mean cloudband?

Interesting set up, EC been on it for 10 days the other models have come late to the party - would have been a real interesting system if not right on the heels of a solid cool change/dry out. Should overcome those dry parts of the atmosphere but would have been a real snazzy one if it didn't have that resistance. Still, beggars cant be choosers and will be disappointed with less than 10mm here at home.
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#1403129 - 19/01/2017 21:00 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Ruckle]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 301
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Yeah it looked like it was coming into Melbourne on radar, but fizzed out and went to the north.
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http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1403130 - 19/01/2017 21:03 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Yep that WZ radar still showing precip that BOM radar isn't. BOM radar showed some here at home, was approx. 10 drops!
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#1403155 - 19/01/2017 21:34 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 925
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Gee I hope this thing comes off!!

Gfs has my part of the world receiving
10-15mm, I'm not sure what access g is
Saying because I can't get on that model
For some reason😨

I hear what your saying 'ruckle' about the
Dry air spoiling the party for those larger falls
And I hope this dosent eventuate! But one thing
Against it all is that it doesn't get that day time
Heat kick, like the big event we had late December.

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#1403157 - 19/01/2017 21:36 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 925
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Need as much as we can out of this system
As Sunday Monday are back to hot again

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#1403164 - 19/01/2017 21:49 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2209
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...

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#1403200 - 20/01/2017 00:05 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2209
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Can see lighting flashing in West with nice clear skies stars.

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#1403204 - 20/01/2017 00:39 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Lovely secondary band behind the initial one should hopefully add to the totals. Plus any wrap around for coastal areas. Good stuff.

Some gusty winds as the storms come across the dry air
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#1403206 - 20/01/2017 00:51 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Looking good for Chasers Addict, at least at the moment.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1403207 - 20/01/2017 00:54 Re: Vic - a cool change might bring some much need rain for some? 19 - 21/1/17 [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2209
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Friend of mine in Horsham had terrible lighting thunderstorms as looks like heading Bendigo,

The trough band is working harder to move East/NE to let tight High Pressure move in SA and Victoria.

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