Page 4 of 10 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 9 10 >
Topic Options
#1424275 - 25/05/2017 15:38 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
That is still 5.9cm... I'm extremely doubtful of this 60cm everyone is talking about, even 30cm is pushing it.

I think your'e missing it

10mms of precip on yr.no is 10cm of snow...if its below neg one

Top
#1424276 - 25/05/2017 15:41 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5182
Loc: Dural
Donzah is right.

Top
#1424279 - 25/05/2017 15:46 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
It's very easy to call ACCESS-R the best model because of it's higher resolution.
It's resolution is about 12km.
But EC's HRES Deterministic model(the main EC model) has an even higher resolution of around 9km.
GFS (out to Day 10) has a resolution of around 13km.

So calling ACCESS-R better because of it's resolution is misleading. It's often better in certain orographic lift situations and tracking smaller lake effects. I personally for the most part ignore it and ACCESS-G(which uses a Resolution of about 25km)

If I were to use any ACCESS model, it would be the City model. It has an excellent 4km resolution, perfect for snow forecasting. But I can't bother doing the data management required for that.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1424280 - 25/05/2017 15:50 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Donzah]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Donzah
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
That is still 5.9cm... I'm extremely doubtful of this 60cm everyone is talking about, even 30cm is pushing it.

I think your'e missing it

10mms of precip on yr.no is 10cm of snow...if its below neg one



Yep and colder temps = more snow as I think you mentioned above...
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1424282 - 25/05/2017 15:58 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: Donzah
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
That is still 5.9cm... I'm extremely doubtful of this 60cm everyone is talking about, even 30cm is pushing it.

I think your'e missing it

10mms of precip on yr.no is 10cm of snow...if its below neg one



Yep and colder temps = more snow as I think you mentioned above...


Yeah... its a ad hoc formula ..however as long as I've been using yr.no (which I think is since 2011?) it seems to work.

Obviously there is a sweet spot for snow..which IMO is between -8 and -14 at surface. Though Australia does pretty well and anything below neg 3 IMO .

Top
#1424286 - 25/05/2017 16:18 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW

Top
#1424287 - 25/05/2017 16:19 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
also shows 60 cm for sunday monday...now thats wack.

Top
#1424291 - 25/05/2017 16:22 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9740
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
There ya go - vindicated grin

Top
#1424292 - 25/05/2017 16:24 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: DaveM]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: DaveM
There ya go - vindicated grin


Even I'm not that optimistic

However ...really ?

Top
#1424295 - 25/05/2017 16:32 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW

Top
#1424296 - 25/05/2017 16:33 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9740
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
At the end of it all - time will tell smile

140 does seem to be a tad OTT but stranger things have happened previously. Strewth, what a start that would be, crazy thoughts there smile

Top
#1424297 - 25/05/2017 16:34 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Donzah]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Donzah

I recognise that chart, it predicted a massive amount of snow one time and that failed miserably. It's not in line with Tropical Tidbits snow accum totals either.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1424298 - 25/05/2017 16:34 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
BTW hotlinking to WZ now?

Top
#1424300 - 25/05/2017 16:35 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: Donzah

I recognise that chart, it predicted a massive amount of snow one time and that failed miserably. It's not in line with Tropical Tidbits snow accum totals either.


Yeah its failed before and passed at others ..I look at it for laughs , however I have some screen shots saved from years past when it was on the money.

Top
#1424304 - 25/05/2017 16:45 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
One thing I do like to do is compare all the models are important points ie when the front arrives.

You can see that Axs-R is much more bullish about the temps and the proceeding trough than GFS. Also a more aggresive low placement.
You can see AXS-R modelling the NW orographic lift along the windward line of the alps. GFS does not

eg
vs

Top
#1424307 - 25/05/2017 16:58 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 312
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Like I said ACCESS-R is good for orographic lift and precipitation parameters in general. Mesoscale models in general, are better at forecasting precipitation than global models.
_________________________
Long term forecaster
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

Top
#1424308 - 25/05/2017 17:05 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Like I said ACCESS-R is good for orographic lift and precipitation parameters in general. Mesoscale models in general, are better at forecasting precipitation than global models.


Hence I flip between models at different periods.

Top
#1424310 - 25/05/2017 17:09 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
We'll see.

Top
#1424330 - 25/05/2017 18:14 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 469
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Just FYI
yr.no has upgraded to 70cm of snow.

Top
#1424346 - 25/05/2017 20:03 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6280
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Donzah
Just FYI
yr.no has upgraded to 70cm of snow.


Excellent.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
Page 4 of 10 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 9 10 >


Who's Online
6 registered (exmouthmum, Warwick Eye2Sky, gberg, Skysthelimit, Mad Elf #1.5, CraigA74), 267 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
bradmac, Eager2beastormchaser, Go The Cows, Roland
Forum Stats
29382 Members
32 Forums
23699 Topics
1465469 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image