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#1403376 - 20/01/2017 21:01 2017 Australian Snow Season
HumphreyBear Offline
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Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
I know I'm clutching at straws opening this thread in the dog days of summer, but I think it's required to keep me (and other cold lovers) sane. It's way too early for any prognostications of course, though if the negative SAM becomes a fixture, we might be in for some reward after a long hot summer and early autumn. There could be some early falls in places like the Victorian Alps and Tasmania with the current patterns, too.

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#1403456 - 21/01/2017 12:14 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4924
Loc: Dural
Starting this thread in January HB is the definition of optimism!!
In saying that, I'd rather talk about the 2017 snow season than this friggin heat!!

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#1403569 - 21/01/2017 22:37 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Kangaroo Offline
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Registered: 28/02/2007
Posts: 103
Loc: Berowra, Sydney
He's a dose of what I am having to tolerate at the moment in Japan. Heading to Furano tomorrow.






Edited by Kangaroo (21/01/2017 22:38)

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#1403570 - 21/01/2017 22:49 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4924
Loc: Dural
Nice pics Kanga.
Makes me feel cooler already.

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#1403596 - 22/01/2017 11:21 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
My name kind of signals my interest in this area....

No major volcano explosions, so one climate factor out....

CFS currently builds a cooler Australian Bight from May. It's looking better....
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Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1403623 - 22/01/2017 18:18 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 229
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Dreaming of whiter days.....

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#1403628 - 22/01/2017 20:15 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4924
Loc: Dural
Happy Birthday Warren!!

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#1403640 - 22/01/2017 21:16 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10061
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
May 2017 Rainfall: 108.8mm (May Avg. 131.5mm) // May 2017 Raindays: 9 (May Avg. 11.2 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 987.8mm (Jan-May Avg. 802.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 79 (Jan-May Avg. 67.0 raindays)

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#1403675 - 23/01/2017 10:34 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 229
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Oh wow, thank you Homer, how did you know?! I wasn't aware I put up my details!

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#1403678 - 23/01/2017 10:50 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4924
Loc: Dural
There was a little birthday cake in your avatar. grin

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#1403680 - 23/01/2017 10:57 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 229
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Oh me oh my! Haven't figured out all the kinks of this website yet.

Does anyone know if theres any place to hire bikes at Mt Kosciusko?

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#1403939 - 24/01/2017 23:46 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Kangaroo Offline
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Registered: 28/02/2007
Posts: 103
Loc: Berowra, Sydney
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
Oh me oh my! Haven't figured out all the kinks of this website yet.

Does anyone know if theres any place to hire bikes at Mt Kosciusko?


Your best bet is in Thredbo Village.

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#1403950 - 25/01/2017 09:37 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9240
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
What Kangaroo said smile Spot on.

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#1407693 - 14/02/2017 16:36 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5642
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Looking forward to when the winter storms come swinging our way from Antarctica! Even if I don't make it to the snow, the sight of intense cold fronts and low pressure systems bearing down on Southern Australia is always entertaining. smile

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#1407859 - 15/02/2017 20:52 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 893
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Bring it on Aussie, freezing cold blasts
And low level snow❄️❄️❄️❄️

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#1407869 - 15/02/2017 21:47 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 229
Loc: Penrith, NSW
I think this snow season will bring a few surprises.

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#1407883 - 16/02/2017 05:14 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Kangaroo Offline
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Registered: 28/02/2007
Posts: 103
Loc: Berowra, Sydney
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
I think this snow season will bring a few surprises.


Every year I take the family for a week skiing in the Snowy Mountains, but I get equally excited about snow on the Central and Northern Tablelands. The anticipation this year is no different.

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#1407896 - 16/02/2017 09:03 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Kangaroo]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 229
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Originally Posted By: Kangaroo

Every year I take the family for a week skiing in the Snowy Mountains, but I get equally excited about snow on the Central and Northern Tablelands. The anticipation this year is no different.


Precipitation wise this year has been amazing for the Blue Mountains and Central Tablelands! A number of nights have have dropped to 5 degrees and below, if the trend continues into Winter and Autumn, I think we will all be impressed!

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#1407905 - 16/02/2017 11:07 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Too early for any meaningful snow season predictions. But El Niņo could be coming in with a negative effect on snow.
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#1407957 - 16/02/2017 16:53 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5444
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
I think this snow season will bring a few surprises.


I agree, I have a good gut feeling about it. It's like the scales have to balance in my mind.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

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#1408272 - 18/02/2017 08:45 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
paulcirrus Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1407
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
It seems to have a positive affect for the guyra area
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If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1408935 - 20/02/2017 21:35 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5444
Loc: Wollongong NSW
http://ski.com.au/snowcams/australia/nsw/perisherblue/perisher-olympic.html

Pretty decent amount of snow at Perisher on the cam this afternoon. They picked up 10mm early this morning mostly at around 0°C, so the snowfall amount would've been about 5-7cm at a guess.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

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#1408947 - 20/02/2017 22:47 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 229
Loc: Penrith, NSW

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#1408948 - 20/02/2017 22:50 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 229
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Such early snow though... If the past is anything to go on early snow usually means a pretty poor snow season.

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#1414131 - 22/03/2017 10:02 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.


Both EC and GFS agree on a Mar 29-31 system with 1-5cm involved for Tasmania.
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#1414277 - 22/03/2017 17:16 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo


Both EC and GFS agree on a Mar 29-31 system with 1-5cm involved for Tasmania.

Forecast is now a dud.


------------------------
http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2017/03/first-australia-snow-season-outlook.html

Talking about the precipitation and SSTs associated with the snow. POAMA and EC SST outlooks included. Enjoy!


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (22/03/2017 17:17)
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#1418314 - 28/03/2017 12:27 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9240
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Cheers SH - interesting read smile

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#1421548 - 14/04/2017 07:01 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Cheers Offline
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Registered: 26/05/2007
Posts: 1049
Loc: sevenhills nsw
Next weekend 22/23 /04 /17 looking interesting for some snow up on the CTs.
I know it's a long way out but you never know !!!

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#1421552 - 14/04/2017 13:10 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: DaveM]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Cheers SH - interesting read smile

Thanks DaveM.
_________________________
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#1422129 - 25/04/2017 13:21 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au/2017/04/second-australian-snow-season-outlook.html

Another outlook on the season. MSLP and Temperatures this time. Not exactly great for you guys chasing low level snow.
_________________________
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#1424139 - 24/05/2017 09:41 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9240
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Slowly slowly getting closer smile

The Snowies should see some snow this Sunday and a few days next week.

Enough to get people excited at least.

Systems showing signs of finally stepping that little further northwards now.

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#1424145 - 24/05/2017 11:38 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Locke Offline
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Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4256
Loc: Brisbane
Been following it on ski.com.au

Looking like potentially 15-20cm for the resorts. Combined with snowmaking should at least allow them to have some terrain open in early June.

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#1424158 - 24/05/2017 12:36 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9240
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Access is the most bullish model, if you believe it today, then it will be colder up to the CT's.

EC & GFS have the change flatter.

Either way, some snow on the ground of the high ranges of NSW & Vic will be a confidence boost for the snow industries, get people interested. smile

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#1424184 - 24/05/2017 19:02 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Looks quite decent.

The precip numbers aren't to be sneezed at.
Its also pretty cold with the moisture arriving at the same time as the cold air.

What I do like is the duration. EC via Yr.no has duration of greater than 60 hrs

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#1424187 - 24/05/2017 19:40 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
EC 00z says 2-5cm for the 28/29 event
And a dusting for the 30/31 event.

GFS says 5-10cm for the 28/29 event.
and 5-10cm for the 30/31 event.

Pictures
1: 10 day snow accum EC
2: 500dm height anomaly during 28/29 event
3: 500dm height anomaly during 30/31 event





Meanwhile POAMA forecasts Neutral SAM conditions.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (24/05/2017 19:43)
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#1424188 - 24/05/2017 19:45 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW

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#1424189 - 24/05/2017 19:48 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Locke]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Locke
Been following it on ski.com.au

Looking like potentially 15-20cm for the resorts. Combined with snowmaking should at least allow them to have some terrain open in early June.

You may see me on there wink

15-20cm from these two events is a pretty good prediction...
There's potential in the LWT peaking in the first weekend of June again. 4-7 June seems to have potential on GFS. Temps look okay for snowmaking over the next two weeks. I reckon we will see at least Bourke Street (Buller) and Front Valley (Perisher) open for QBW. Anything else is a bonus...
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#1424190 - 24/05/2017 19:51 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Donzah]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

That's certainly a good idea for most people. I like using the EC charts, so more than happy to share them here...

I get my EC totals from the snow accum charts, but yr.no is okay.
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#1424194 - 24/05/2017 20:14 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5444
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Is Yr.no EC? 'Cause I use that too.

Yes it's the ski forum time of year again.


Edited by Wave Rider (24/05/2017 20:15)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

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#1424198 - 24/05/2017 21:38 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Wave Rider]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Is Yr.no EC? 'Cause I use that too.

Yes it's the ski forum time of year again.

Yr.no is EC. It's the Norwegian Meteorological Insititute.
They have heaps of weather data.
_________________________
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Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1424204 - 25/05/2017 07:52 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo

That's certainly a good idea for most people. I like using the EC charts, so more than happy to share them here...

I get my EC totals from the snow accum charts, but yr.no is okay.

However yr.no contradicts the snow accumulation charts on pro-accue
there is going to be a bit more than as indicated on those charts above.
I like pro-accue for its intervals on EC being smaller, plus it renders EC better, has great resolution ... however I find pro-accu wildly inaccurate for snow accumulation modelling , I've had it for last three seasons or so. In fact I find most models very poor for accumulation . The tiling they use doesn't account for local factors ... if AXS-R had a snow model it would be quite cool (and yup I know meteye has it, of sorts)

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#1424205 - 25/05/2017 07:56 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Running off yr.no this morning , taking into account and temperature . I'd expect 50cm (at Perisher) out of this 2 banger system.
The duration is the key.
Midnight (ish) Saturday to Midnight wednesday is close to 96 hours of potential snow. Even at an average of .05mm per hr (conservative)
Looking at the wind , orographic lifting will occur on the windward sides of NW ridges. The western faces of the MR will get smoked with snow.

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#1424206 - 25/05/2017 08:01 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Wednesday is going as a cutoff on the spag.
If its cold enough, that will promote moisture,,, its actually quite a good think, considering the residual cold air from the proceeding change.

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#1424219 - 25/05/2017 10:33 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9240
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Keep it going lads, love it smile

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#1424223 - 25/05/2017 11:33 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 229
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Where are you getting 15-30cm from? I'm only seeing 6cm total for the 3 days.

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#1424228 - 25/05/2017 12:12 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
Where are you getting 15-30cm from? I'm only seeing 6cm total for the 3 days.


https://www.yr.no/place/Australia/New_South_Wales/Mount_Perisher/long.html

EC via Yr.no is a conservative model for precip.

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#1424232 - 25/05/2017 12:35 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3648
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
yr.no uses ECMWF output but does some post-processing for temperature - for example, they now have an explicit elevation correction for temperature when equating temperature at the nearest gridpoint to temperature at a specific location. This seems to have improved performance a fair bit in areas of complex topography - for example, Canberra used to have a strong cold bias (presumably because the 'Canberra' gridpoint used a mean gridbox elevation which took in some of the Brindabellas), but this has been reduced (but not eliminated) more recently.

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#1424233 - 25/05/2017 12:47 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Blair Trewin]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Blair Trewin
yr.no uses ECMWF output but does some post-processing for temperature - for example, they now have an explicit elevation correction for temperature when equating temperature at the nearest gridpoint to temperature at a specific location. This seems to have improved performance a fair bit in areas of complex topography - for example, Canberra used to have a strong cold bias (presumably because the 'Canberra' gridpoint used a mean gridbox elevation which took in some of the Brindabellas), but this has been reduced (but not eliminated) more recently.


Yeah i've noticed this (as have others , eg Professional mountain guides) that it has improved on its algorithums for altitude temperature correction within its "tiles" (my understanding of the gridbox) .
Mind you its absolutely hopeless with wind.
I also think the precip modelling has improved along with that.

Re snow. The best moisture model is AXS-R. It models orographic effects most accurately in the mountains. Obviously its resolution helps.

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#1424235 - 25/05/2017 12:52 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9240
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Good information Blair smile

Shame "R" is so short term in outlook.

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#1424238 - 25/05/2017 12:55 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: DaveM]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Good information Blair smile

Shame "R" is so short term in outlook.


I had explained to me that R would need a bloody expensive main frame to continue its resolution at the same level beyond 72 hrs..

But it may happen.

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#1424240 - 25/05/2017 12:58 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Blair Trewin Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3648
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
That's right - to go, say, from 25km to 5km resolution means a 25x increase in the number of gridpoints (even if you don't change the number of vertical levels), which means using 25x the amount of computer time.

The ability to run higher-resolution models for longer is one of the things you get as computing infrastructure improves.

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#1424241 - 25/05/2017 13:01 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 229
Loc: Penrith, NSW
You do realise that is in mm right...? The CM of snow will be much different.

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#1424242 - 25/05/2017 13:07 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
You do realise that is in mm right...? The CM of snow will be much different.


Yr.no.... roughly at -1 a mm of precip translates to a cm of snow. At say 95% humidity ... if you drop the humidity down and the temperature down...the formula is more favourable

at minus 3 that formula is 1.33 times
at minus 6 that formula is 1.5 times

And so on as the air gets colder its ability to form high volume snowflakes decreases.

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#1424245 - 25/05/2017 13:13 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
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Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 229
Loc: Penrith, NSW
The size of a snowflake can't alter how much moisture is available in a system.

Eventually as more snow falls the more the snow underneath the top layer melts. The value will be far less than 50~60cm.

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#1424246 - 25/05/2017 13:19 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
The size of a snowflake can't alter how much moisture is available in a system.

Eventually as more snow falls the more the snow underneath the top layer melts. The value will be far less than 50~60cm.


No the moisture in the snowflake determines how much falls... ie a stellar dendrite at -1 won't accumulate as much depth as a stellar dendrite at say minus 5..
The composition of the snowflake is determined by the moisture and the temperature of its creation all the way to its arrival . That composition or structure then determines how it bonds with other snowflakes to create a snowpack.
Obviously surface temperature is one of the biggest factors.

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#1424247 - 25/05/2017 13:22 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
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Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
So the amount of snow that falls is a formula of precip/vs temperature (simply)

I'm also a big Believer in duration of events.

In my experience a prolonged flow with embedded troughs accumulates more snow that a "wonder" system that looks fantastic then gets ridged out to the tasman.

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#1424249 - 25/05/2017 13:33 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
I added up the precip on yr.no

Between sunday and wed midnight... 59.3 mm is progged

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#1424253 - 25/05/2017 14:05 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
slotmachine Offline
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Registered: 02/11/2007
Posts: 192
Loc: Newcastle
That yr.no forecast is for 1900m yeah? Marginal temps on Sunday?

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#1424254 - 25/05/2017 14:09 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: slotmachine]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: slotmachine
That yr.no forecast is for 1900m yeah? Marginal temps on Sunday?

Nah
Altitude: 1719 m.

Yeah the temps are so so ish..I think the freezing level will be around 1700 until after noon Sunday .Though the uppers aren't that warm.

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#1424268 - 25/05/2017 15:13 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 229
Loc: Penrith, NSW
That is still 5.9cm... I'm extremely doubtful of this 60cm everyone is talking about, even 30cm is pushing it.

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#1424275 - 25/05/2017 15:38 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
That is still 5.9cm... I'm extremely doubtful of this 60cm everyone is talking about, even 30cm is pushing it.

I think your'e missing it

10mms of precip on yr.no is 10cm of snow...if its below neg one

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#1424276 - 25/05/2017 15:41 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Homer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4924
Loc: Dural
Donzah is right.

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#1424279 - 25/05/2017 15:46 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
It's very easy to call ACCESS-R the best model because of it's higher resolution.
It's resolution is about 12km.
But EC's HRES Deterministic model(the main EC model) has an even higher resolution of around 9km.
GFS (out to Day 10) has a resolution of around 13km.

So calling ACCESS-R better because of it's resolution is misleading. It's often better in certain orographic lift situations and tracking smaller lake effects. I personally for the most part ignore it and ACCESS-G(which uses a Resolution of about 25km)

If I were to use any ACCESS model, it would be the City model. It has an excellent 4km resolution, perfect for snow forecasting. But I can't bother doing the data management required for that.
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#1424280 - 25/05/2017 15:50 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Donzah]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Donzah
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
That is still 5.9cm... I'm extremely doubtful of this 60cm everyone is talking about, even 30cm is pushing it.

I think your'e missing it

10mms of precip on yr.no is 10cm of snow...if its below neg one



Yep and colder temps = more snow as I think you mentioned above...
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#1424282 - 25/05/2017 15:58 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: Donzah
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
That is still 5.9cm... I'm extremely doubtful of this 60cm everyone is talking about, even 30cm is pushing it.

I think your'e missing it

10mms of precip on yr.no is 10cm of snow...if its below neg one



Yep and colder temps = more snow as I think you mentioned above...


Yeah... its a ad hoc formula ..however as long as I've been using yr.no (which I think is since 2011?) it seems to work.

Obviously there is a sweet spot for snow..which IMO is between -8 and -14 at surface. Though Australia does pretty well and anything below neg 3 IMO .

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#1424286 - 25/05/2017 16:18 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW

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#1424287 - 25/05/2017 16:19 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
also shows 60 cm for sunday monday...now thats wack.

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#1424291 - 25/05/2017 16:22 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9240
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
There ya go - vindicated grin

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#1424292 - 25/05/2017 16:24 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: DaveM]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: DaveM
There ya go - vindicated grin


Even I'm not that optimistic

However ...really ?

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#1424295 - 25/05/2017 16:32 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW

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#1424296 - 25/05/2017 16:33 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9240
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
At the end of it all - time will tell smile

140 does seem to be a tad OTT but stranger things have happened previously. Strewth, what a start that would be, crazy thoughts there smile

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#1424297 - 25/05/2017 16:34 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Donzah]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Originally Posted By: Donzah

I recognise that chart, it predicted a massive amount of snow one time and that failed miserably. It's not in line with Tropical Tidbits snow accum totals either.
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#1424298 - 25/05/2017 16:34 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
BTW hotlinking to WZ now?

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#1424300 - 25/05/2017 16:35 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Originally Posted By: Donzah

I recognise that chart, it predicted a massive amount of snow one time and that failed miserably. It's not in line with Tropical Tidbits snow accum totals either.


Yeah its failed before and passed at others ..I look at it for laughs , however I have some screen shots saved from years past when it was on the money.

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#1424304 - 25/05/2017 16:45 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
One thing I do like to do is compare all the models are important points ie when the front arrives.

You can see that Axs-R is much more bullish about the temps and the proceeding trough than GFS. Also a more aggresive low placement.
You can see AXS-R modelling the NW orographic lift along the windward line of the alps. GFS does not

eg
vs

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#1424307 - 25/05/2017 16:58 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.
Like I said ACCESS-R is good for orographic lift and precipitation parameters in general. Mesoscale models in general, are better at forecasting precipitation than global models.
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http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1424308 - 25/05/2017 17:05 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo
Like I said ACCESS-R is good for orographic lift and precipitation parameters in general. Mesoscale models in general, are better at forecasting precipitation than global models.


Hence I flip between models at different periods.

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#1424310 - 25/05/2017 17:09 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 229
Loc: Penrith, NSW
We'll see.

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#1424330 - 25/05/2017 18:14 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Just FYI
yr.no has upgraded to 70cm of snow.

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#1424346 - 25/05/2017 20:03 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Donzah]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5444
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: Donzah
Just FYI
yr.no has upgraded to 70cm of snow.


Excellent.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

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#1424382 - 26/05/2017 08:18 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Still holding fast .

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#1424384 - 26/05/2017 08:28 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 257
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.



Nodes are still looking great.
Snow level for the first node is about 1000m and the snow level for the second node is about 700m.
GFS has 15-30cm down for the Alps.
EC has 20-35cm down for the Alps.
I'd expect the second node to have a bit more duration and colder temps.
The uppers are better for the second node. -26 500mb height for the first node and -32 500mb height for the second node.
_________________________
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http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1424391 - 26/05/2017 09:47 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9240
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Certainly some fresh temps on the way smile

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#1424393 - 26/05/2017 09:51 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: Snowy Hibbo]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
Originally Posted By: Snowy Hibbo



Nodes are still looking great.
Snow level for the first node is about 1000m and the snow level for the second node is about 700m.
GFS has 15-30cm down for the Alps.
EC has 20-35cm down for the Alps.
I'd expect the second node to have a bit more duration and colder temps.
The uppers are better for the second node. -26 500mb height for the first node and -32 500mb height for the second node.

I really like that chart.
I saw a polar version of a couple of days ago. Showed a very nice 5 nodal setup.

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#1424406 - 26/05/2017 16:22 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
Donzah Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/02/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Woonona NSW and JIndabyne NSW
AXS-R shows some pretty good moisture for the alps.
30-40mm - which should all fall as snow.
Nice start with colder weather mid week

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#1424419 - Yesterday at 08:19 Re: 2017 Australian Snow Season [Re: HumphreyBear]
snowbooby Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 30
how's it looking this morning?
I haven't been following it that closely and not at all on the mainland, but some of the second cold pulse figures over Hobart look to have fallen away.


Edited by snowbooby (Yesterday at 08:20)

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