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#1403602 - 22/01/2017 13:15 VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hi all,

Another little sequence to post about. All models have a chance of storms tomorrow arvo, more your chaseable scattered variety than a widespread event and certainly favouring western and central parts and along the ranges at this stage,then early hours of Tuesday morning change push through, another slight chabnce in central parts in early Tuesday before the "chance" spreads eastward through that day.

A trough ahead of next high is trigger, hopefully some cooler uppers can get close enough to lift it properly but not holding breath on that

Wind at home went from SE to NE a couple of hours ago. Currently bluest blue sky and 26/11
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#1403613 - 22/01/2017 16:42 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Short range ACC has increased precip for parts on the 00z run. Would be nice to see GFS but WZ cant seem to produce that more than two runs in a row lately....
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#1403616 - 22/01/2017 17:08 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread ruckle 👍

Yeah as u say if we're lucky we could
Get 5-10mm but I'm more leaning
Towards 1-5mm for my area?

Will take what we can scrape out of it
As there is no rain in sight after this event,
With a string of 26-30c days with possibly
A couple of windy stinkers thrown in!!

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#1403619 - 22/01/2017 17:31 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Looks a bit grim in the east on Tuesday on and south of the divide - still some chances in the NE though. Having said that, a lot can happen in 48 hours.
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#1403627 - 22/01/2017 19:46 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Ta Ruckle - here's hoping at least some areas of Vic can get something worthwhile rain-wise from this change!

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#1403631 - 22/01/2017 20:27 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2162
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like will be less rain than last system.
Hope isolated thunderstorms for West as stormcast possibly.
Rest week for South of ranges will feel like early autumn cooler.

The Easterly dip High Pressure pattern been doing almost of 1 month for SE Australia.

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#1403639 - 22/01/2017 21:07 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5614
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a hot top of 34.4C here in Belgrave this arvo. Tolerable heat, but the cold morning worked to our advantage. We kept the curtains and blinds closed, and kept the inside temperature around 20C. No need to run the air-can! smile

Skies were almost cloudfree, and we had light cooling breezes.

Currently around 22C. smile

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#1403654 - 23/01/2017 06:40 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 128
Mmm warm and humid this morning, 21 deg ans 70% humidity at 6:30 in the CBD feels more like Brisbane than Melbourne.


Edited by smeagols_ghost (23/01/2017 06:41)
Edit Reason: Location

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#1403683 - 23/01/2017 11:09 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5614
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 19.5C, currently around 32C and mostly sunny.

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#1403691 - 23/01/2017 12:25 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
27.4/13.0 atm, still seen absolutely no sun but heaps of blue sky to the west so a hot arvo looks on the cards.
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#1403721 - 23/01/2017 16:34 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 249
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Top of 36.7C here today in Tarneit, still 36.5C. Just saw Weatherzone website stating 5-10mm for Melbourne area tonight?
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#1403725 - 23/01/2017 16:54 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Seriously the only really dry air in SE oz is the corridor from SW NSW to NW VIC and heading SE from that toward central parts. Sigh, looks like a rain band more coverage but less totals than we would all like, not much thunder, wind shift already pushing into western parts but has dry air ahead of it.
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#1403742 - 23/01/2017 18:30 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 249
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Is this the actual change coming through associated with the rain band around Geelong area? Temps are dropping with the SW Wind direction. Much earlier than anticipated.
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#1403747 - 23/01/2017 18:58 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
LOL epic fail on my original post. Weatherviewer the wind change is a trough, the cold front back in the southern bight is still to go by to our south.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1403759 - 23/01/2017 20:29 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2162
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hurry up cool change for Northern Country very hot and dry air.

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#1403763 - 23/01/2017 21:07 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Wind returning to very humid Northerlies after this band, fingers crossed for something.. just something
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1403765 - 23/01/2017 21:45 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Calm 36.9C here today, calm 30.5C now - another hot night to add to this summers tally!

Baro seems to have bottomed at 1001 hPa now.

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#1403768 - 23/01/2017 22:02 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Partly cloudy top of 36.2c here today!

Sw wind change blew through here about
An hour ago, fairly gusty out there now and
Cooled back off to 20!

Only on and off light rain falling

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#1403837 - 24/01/2017 13:41 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2162
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Lovely cool of 28c at 1.45pm with light winds and clear skies


Edited by chasers addict (24/01/2017 13:41)

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#1403898 - 24/01/2017 17:46 Re: VIC- Another warm up then change sequence with a chance of storms but no widespread rain 22-24 Jan 17 [Re: Ruckle]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
24c up here today with a disappointing
2mm of rain overnight!!
Really needed a lot more with the outlook
Looking so dry and warm for the next week😨

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