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#1403605 - 22/01/2017 14:26 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season
Asturai Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/07/2014
Posts: 459
Loc: West Narangba
I thought I'd start this thread since there's been quite a bit of activity in the Deep South during this month.

This includes the large wedge tornado that went through Hattiesburg, MS less than a day or so ago.

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#1403693 - 23/01/2017 12:26 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6104
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Been an ongoing event along the gulf coast and now the SE for a few days hasn't there.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1410343 - 02/03/2017 14:59 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Ruckle]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5884
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:

There was at least 1 tornado in North Central parts of Arkansas last evening (Tuesday). An EF-2 twister injured 4 people and caused damage to a cemetery in Kensett in White County. I saw footage of a large uprooted tree with a small (1884) tombstone in the dirt connected with the uprooted trees' rootball! Also a small pinetree limb went partially through a truck's windshield/windscreen.

My area was in a Tornado Watch from ~4PM to 10PM yesterday (we don't often get these type of Watches this deep into Winter), but--Most Thankfully--my area had hardly even any rain, as the cells kept forming to our East & Northeast.
I wonder if this portends a Early, Active & Severe storm season this year?

Kind Wishes & Take Care~~~Wet Snow

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#1411214 - 07/03/2017 15:20 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Wet Snow]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5884
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:

I saw a Doppler Timelapse (on Higgins Stormchasing)of a long-lived tornado-producing supercell (on Feb. 28th) that started in NE Oklahoma (just barely entered the extreme NW corner of Arkansas) and tracked NE for 571 Miles (919+ Kilometers) before dying just west of Cincinnati, Ohio. This cell put down at least 5 twisters--one of which went through Perryville, Missouri; injuring a number of people and fatal to 2. Not bad for a supercell as we in the NH are still in Winter!
I could not find that Doppler Timelapse on YouTube.
While looking for that Doppler Timelapse vid, I found this interesting vid: Doppler Radar Timelapse For The US For The Entire Year of 2016: This vid lasts for 8:22 and is very interesting. The small circular "ground clutter" in Western Arkansas is the town of Fort Smith, the "ground clutter" in the middle of Arkansas is the capital city of Little Rock.

To view vid:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qk0h2ok8Av4

Kind Wishes & Take Care~~~Wet Snow

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#1411802 - 12/03/2017 10:44 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2358
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Interesting video there Wet Snow, some very memorable severe weather events in that lot.

Getting to that time of the year when we're starting to get keen to get back over there for chase season. Heading over a little bit earlier than last year at the end of April and coming home a bit later, all up 7 weeks over there this year so many miles to cover for many incredible adventures no doubt.

You heading over Ozthunder?
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US Storm Chasing 2016

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#1422660 - 02/05/2017 15:52 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2358
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Moving into a bit of a quieter period over here with ridging filling in west of the Rockies beyond mid week but there remains some reasonable severe potential in southern and eastern Texas from overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with a strengthening LLJ combining with reasonable moisture flux and modest deep layer shear to perhaps initiate a few organised storms worth going after. Large hail and damaging winds looks the primary threats but there does appear to be a narrow corridor of sharper veering on the northern extent of the risk area for a brief tornado or two.

Beyond Wednesday deep troughing over the eastern CONUS and entrenched ridging dominating the plains should see some serious scouring out of moisture for several days before we move into a more fluid pattern from early next week and a likely return to more typical May patterns. Plenty of time for the aussie contingent of chasers to knock over more than a few beers I'm sure wink
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US Storm Chasing 2016

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#1422677 - 03/05/2017 00:39 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Nice one mate, good to see you back overthere!

Yea lot of upper ridging but tomorrow and 3rd have good potential.

Acceleration of mid and upper flow tonight and into later tomorrow to promote good exhaust aloft, nice moisture return and LLJ at night. Before that though large CAPE and good sfc convergence across central OK broadly should fire up storms and shear is fairly nice with that increase late, should see things organise a bit and a few supercells form, large hail a good threat and wind and posssssibly tornado but nothing textbook. Convergence retreats south late as things become more elevated and a big dynamic lift occurs with rainband mess forming into the wed.

Target around El Reno OK and take from there. Will need to be a long way SSE in TX for wed as well.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (03/05/2017 00:39)

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#1422685 - 03/05/2017 10:25 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
I guess only looking briefly at GFS in bed limited my perspective on the day, certainly going to be too far south for anything in the day at least, right out in the panhandle looking ok towards dark as the nocturnal driven large complex gets going, tail end charlie before it bows might be a look.

TS cool

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#1422755 - 04/05/2017 12:14 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2358
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
I guess only looking briefly at GFS in bed limited my perspective on the day

TS cool


I think a few of us over here probably read a little too much into the set-up out on the panhandles yesterday too mate. It was a very long drive back to eastern Texas late last night to be within a reachable distance of this mornings storms I can tell you that!

As far as today went, it certainly wasn't anything to write home about with the predictable MSC splattering large portions of eastern TX and central and southern LA with a hideous big rain mess. Plenty of sparks and a bit of larger hail with the stronger cells but I personally didn't witness anything overly interesting by US standards anyway.

Grabbed a couple damage shots from the Canton tornado last weekend on my way past this morning, extremely well defined scouring out of the landscape with that one I can tell you. Car dealership and storage sheds pictured below certainly took a beating. They were still lifting out 2 tonne pick-up trucks from the nearby bushland with cranes today.


Canton, TX Tornado Damage
by Orebound Images, on Flickr


Canton, TX Tornado Damage
by Orebound Images, on Flickr

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US Storm Chasing 2016

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#1422826 - 06/05/2017 00:52 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Impressive images there mate! Yea big mess that second day...few quiet ones now before picks up again on the Plains.

TS cool

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#1422981 - 08/05/2017 23:56 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Tricky one tomorrow (monday)....two main areas of interest, that being NM and NE CO - the latter probably has the best Tornado threat as per SPC 5% area but virtually based on the activity in the days after being focused around the dry line in NM/TX/OK etc, I'll give the CO option a miss. Better easterly component and bit more forcing but NM should suffice.

Good dry line sharpness late in the day, surge of the moisture pushes it west so reasonably isolated activity but fairly solid all the same. Decent low level SSE flow and veering profiles. Upper dynamics nothing to rave about but perhaps enough forcing there to get things going combined with the good shear and modest instability, should see some nice storms about.

Target area is a bit of a mess as there is no real focus but a general dry line target area of Tucumcari NM and pushing N up towards Mosquero NM with the steer...see how we go, prob don't want to push too hard N as will need to shoot back S later for tomorrow.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (08/05/2017 23:56)

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#1422982 - 09/05/2017 00:17 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
I should add for those interested in the CO potential and it is nice, I'd be thinking of playing around the Last Chance to Brush area..

TS cool

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#1422994 - 09/05/2017 10:04 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
So far NM target working well, long-lived supercell moving up from the SW of Tucumcari just gone tornado warned, should pass very close to the town if it holds.

TS cool

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#1423008 - 09/05/2017 14:06 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2358
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
I should add for those interested in the CO potential and it is nice, I'd be thinking of playing around the Last Chance to Brush area..

TS cool


As you know we played the NE Colorado option and it certainly didn't disappoint. Some spectacular high-based supercells unzipping along the boundary located near Limon. Several strongly rotating updrafts throughout the afternoon with the initial cell we targeted north of Simla showing off a beautiful meso before teasing us all for at least 20 mins with repeated attempts at putting down a tornado. Some reported a brief touchdown but we were quite certain it remained a funnel only.


Colorado Funnel
by Orebound Images, on Flickr


Colorado Funnel
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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US Storm Chasing 2016

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#1423029 - 10/05/2017 01:25 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Geez had a crack mate, nice images!

Yesterday fairly happy with how the main target in NM turned out with 2 tornado warned supercells within close proximity - one SW of Tucumcari which was a cyclic monster putting out 3 sep warnings and another brief one NW of Mosquero out near Roy.

Now today....again a little finicky about where one targets. I again see a spread of two areas, blending into one later on. The early stuff with less capping over Eastern NM should take off mid arvo and increase steadily with a mix of clusters and hopefully some discrete cells. Aloft we have a much more dynamic upper jet streak nosing in from the SW with a big exit region of lift and upper divergence spreading over all target areas late afternoon and evening. The sfc low seems to be split a bit into two areas on some models, one focus over central E NM and another over far SW TX into SE NM very late into the evening as the LLJ responds into the nocturnal hours from the lift aloft. The LLJ should transport the moisture quickly west with the dry line surging with it....however this SW TX area seems very capped for much of the day, but excellent shear and fat CAPE will be present. Loaded gun stuff....it might not go or even go properly but if it does look out, could see some powerful discrete storms erupt.

I think for me I'll have a crack at the more southern option but not position too far south as I want to allow for a little less capping and more influence from the lift aloft.

I'll target around the Eunice NM to Hobbs NM area in far SE NM, possibly or likely spreading into SW TX depending which cell is worth latching into but definitely more discrete options here than a little further NW/N. Large hail a big risk, could be very large infact with the shear/CAPE and a stronger tornado chance later in the day than yesterday with better shear profiles and higher dew point air.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (10/05/2017 01:28)

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#1423088 - 11/05/2017 01:00 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well yesterday was a fairly big day with multiple tornado reports across NM and far W TX. Target faired quite well for initiation at least with many supercells forming close to Hobbs but maximum tornadic potential was realised further N and NE into SW TX as the LLJ took it's time doing it's thing and by then the steer hard taken cells away. But def in the ballpark and chase able.

Now for today....another strong day of potential, albeit a late surge of potential like yesterday but perhaps a slighter shorter window.

Strong mid level shortwave aloft, really ripping in a speed max across the NM/TX/OK areas atm, cells certainly got some movement about them but this dynamic forcing is always important from the upper low. Of interest though is the sfc boundary layer....ongoing thunderstorm clusters and what not from last night should drape a nice boundary across W OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle. CIN is removed fairly early into the middle of the afternoon across the TX Panhandle with models hinting at multiple discrete supercells forming along the dryline with a sfc low in the vicinity. Nice high dew point air with 60-65F coming in straight off the Gulf and curving in just on the E/NE side of this sfc feature. The key is finding the boundary and any cell that can cross this boundary and ingest into the updraft....combined with the increasing LLJ things could turn rather severe rather quickly and a few strong tornadoes are possible. Otherwise for much of the initial 2-4hrs of the storm life, the low level balance might not be there to counteract the strong upper flow limiting organised low level meso's. Once the balance is found and the LLJ tears in (saving grace so damn often) things will spice up and this for me is going to be over SW OK, possibly into far N TX but getting away from the boundary there and a little S of the sfc low away from that nice curving of the low level winds.

So initiation around Childress TX but for a main target as such for that maximum tornado potential I like the Mangum OK area and surrounds and likely pushing NE from there. Looks like could be 3-4 discrete supercells pushing through there but aiming to hold fairly well south to possibly play the tail end charlie and make most of that LLJ being un-impeded.

TS cool

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#1423089 - 11/05/2017 04:27 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2358
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Yeah mate it was a bloody big days chasing yesterday starting with a several hundred mile drive down to SE New Mexico from where we overnighted in Lamar CO. Will write a bit of a report and post a couple pics when time permits but for now its back to the road for todays activity.

Initial starting target Hollis OK...
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US Storm Chasing 2016

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#1423100 - 11/05/2017 08:50 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1614
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Nice photos Orebound ,Nice and sharp .Your living the dream mate. Have a good time .
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Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1423139 - 11/05/2017 23:52 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6201
Loc: Wollongong, NSW
Great pics!! I should probably get into this chase target game again.


Edited by Wave Rider (11/05/2017 23:52)
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2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1423140 - 11/05/2017 23:56 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14848
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Geez another very big day! High end stuff, few brief touchdowns around the traps. Target faired very well, Childress for the initiation would have worked a threat with the main long-tracked supercell of the day forming to the WSW of there before going tornado warned around Childress and then the top part of the core going through Mangum. A second later beast also formed to the SW and took a more easterly path over far N TX and then into S OK. So much to chase, crazy large cells.

Now today things drop back a peg from the last 3 crazy days. Shear is less and certainly not elongated low level hodographs of days prior. However forcing is still fairly strong.

Two main areas of interest for mine, firstly N/NE OK with a triple point and weak sfc low enhancing a tickle of curved easterly into the lowers (not much though). Big instability and good lapse rates so large hail be the main threat here, likely some pretty big storms but my beef is how discrete will things stay and how clean will it all be in general. Could get messy fast with a fair bit going up in the vicinity.

Further south into Central to E TX should see more classic dry line attempts but the angle of the front trailing back will favour a general linear feature fairly quickly albeit with some embedded supercells from early more discrete modes but definitely lining out quickly here. Sfc winds more S than SE which will limit tornado threat to marginal only. Better chance of a discrete storm here and these areas can surprise a bit.

So of the two I favour the northern OK option given we are here to chase tornadoes and not chase Australian style storms like the TX option but def good stuff still to be had down there. Target is very hard given the mess but around Ponca City OK hopefully for something nice. All turning to mess as evening comes by and then a few lay days before a fairly textbook and strong dryline setup for KS/OK comes into play in a few days time with very large CAPE and decent but not high end shear.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (11/05/2017 23:56)

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