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#1403605 - 22/01/2017 14:26 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season
Asturai Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/07/2014
Posts: 459
Loc: West Narangba
I thought I'd start this thread since there's been quite a bit of activity in the Deep South during this month.

This includes the large wedge tornado that went through Hattiesburg, MS less than a day or so ago.

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#1403693 - 23/01/2017 12:26 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Been an ongoing event along the gulf coast and now the SE for a few days hasn't there.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1410343 - 02/03/2017 14:59 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Ruckle]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5840
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:

There was at least 1 tornado in North Central parts of Arkansas last evening (Tuesday). An EF-2 twister injured 4 people and caused damage to a cemetery in Kensett in White County. I saw footage of a large uprooted tree with a small (1884) tombstone in the dirt connected with the uprooted trees' rootball! Also a small pinetree limb went partially through a truck's windshield/windscreen.

My area was in a Tornado Watch from ~4PM to 10PM yesterday (we don't often get these type of Watches this deep into Winter), but--Most Thankfully--my area had hardly even any rain, as the cells kept forming to our East & Northeast.
I wonder if this portends a Early, Active & Severe storm season this year?

Kind Wishes & Take Care~~~Wet Snow

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#1411214 - 07/03/2017 15:20 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Wet Snow]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5840
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:

I saw a Doppler Timelapse (on Higgins Stormchasing)of a long-lived tornado-producing supercell (on Feb. 28th) that started in NE Oklahoma (just barely entered the extreme NW corner of Arkansas) and tracked NE for 571 Miles (919+ Kilometers) before dying just west of Cincinnati, Ohio. This cell put down at least 5 twisters--one of which went through Perryville, Missouri; injuring a number of people and fatal to 2. Not bad for a supercell as we in the NH are still in Winter!
I could not find that Doppler Timelapse on YouTube.
While looking for that Doppler Timelapse vid, I found this interesting vid: Doppler Radar Timelapse For The US For The Entire Year of 2016: This vid lasts for 8:22 and is very interesting. The small circular "ground clutter" in Western Arkansas is the town of Fort Smith, the "ground clutter" in the middle of Arkansas is the capital city of Little Rock.

To view vid:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qk0h2ok8Av4

Kind Wishes & Take Care~~~Wet Snow

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#1411802 - 12/03/2017 10:44 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Interesting video there Wet Snow, some very memorable severe weather events in that lot.

Getting to that time of the year when we're starting to get keen to get back over there for chase season. Heading over a little bit earlier than last year at the end of April and coming home a bit later, all up 7 weeks over there this year so many miles to cover for many incredible adventures no doubt.

You heading over Ozthunder?
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#1422660 - 02/05/2017 15:52 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Moving into a bit of a quieter period over here with ridging filling in west of the Rockies beyond mid week but there remains some reasonable severe potential in southern and eastern Texas from overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with a strengthening LLJ combining with reasonable moisture flux and modest deep layer shear to perhaps initiate a few organised storms worth going after. Large hail and damaging winds looks the primary threats but there does appear to be a narrow corridor of sharper veering on the northern extent of the risk area for a brief tornado or two.

Beyond Wednesday deep troughing over the eastern CONUS and entrenched ridging dominating the plains should see some serious scouring out of moisture for several days before we move into a more fluid pattern from early next week and a likely return to more typical May patterns. Plenty of time for the aussie contingent of chasers to knock over more than a few beers I'm sure wink
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#1422677 - 03/05/2017 00:39 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Nice one mate, good to see you back overthere!

Yea lot of upper ridging but tomorrow and 3rd have good potential.

Acceleration of mid and upper flow tonight and into later tomorrow to promote good exhaust aloft, nice moisture return and LLJ at night. Before that though large CAPE and good sfc convergence across central OK broadly should fire up storms and shear is fairly nice with that increase late, should see things organise a bit and a few supercells form, large hail a good threat and wind and posssssibly tornado but nothing textbook. Convergence retreats south late as things become more elevated and a big dynamic lift occurs with rainband mess forming into the wed.

Target around El Reno OK and take from there. Will need to be a long way SSE in TX for wed as well.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (03/05/2017 00:39)

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#1422685 - 03/05/2017 10:25 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
I guess only looking briefly at GFS in bed limited my perspective on the day, certainly going to be too far south for anything in the day at least, right out in the panhandle looking ok towards dark as the nocturnal driven large complex gets going, tail end charlie before it bows might be a look.

TS cool

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#1422755 - 04/05/2017 12:14 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
I guess only looking briefly at GFS in bed limited my perspective on the day

TS cool


I think a few of us over here probably read a little too much into the set-up out on the panhandles yesterday too mate. It was a very long drive back to eastern Texas late last night to be within a reachable distance of this mornings storms I can tell you that!

As far as today went, it certainly wasn't anything to write home about with the predictable MSC splattering large portions of eastern TX and central and southern LA with a hideous big rain mess. Plenty of sparks and a bit of larger hail with the stronger cells but I personally didn't witness anything overly interesting by US standards anyway.

Grabbed a couple damage shots from the Canton tornado last weekend on my way past this morning, extremely well defined scouring out of the landscape with that one I can tell you. Car dealership and storage sheds pictured below certainly took a beating. They were still lifting out 2 tonne pick-up trucks from the nearby bushland with cranes today.


Canton, TX Tornado Damage
by Orebound Images, on Flickr


Canton, TX Tornado Damage
by Orebound Images, on Flickr

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#1422826 - 06/05/2017 00:52 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Impressive images there mate! Yea big mess that second day...few quiet ones now before picks up again on the Plains.

TS cool

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#1422981 - 08/05/2017 23:56 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Tricky one tomorrow (monday)....two main areas of interest, that being NM and NE CO - the latter probably has the best Tornado threat as per SPC 5% area but virtually based on the activity in the days after being focused around the dry line in NM/TX/OK etc, I'll give the CO option a miss. Better easterly component and bit more forcing but NM should suffice.

Good dry line sharpness late in the day, surge of the moisture pushes it west so reasonably isolated activity but fairly solid all the same. Decent low level SSE flow and veering profiles. Upper dynamics nothing to rave about but perhaps enough forcing there to get things going combined with the good shear and modest instability, should see some nice storms about.

Target area is a bit of a mess as there is no real focus but a general dry line target area of Tucumcari NM and pushing N up towards Mosquero NM with the steer...see how we go, prob don't want to push too hard N as will need to shoot back S later for tomorrow.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (08/05/2017 23:56)

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#1422982 - 09/05/2017 00:17 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
I should add for those interested in the CO potential and it is nice, I'd be thinking of playing around the Last Chance to Brush area..

TS cool

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#1422994 - 09/05/2017 10:04 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
So far NM target working well, long-lived supercell moving up from the SW of Tucumcari just gone tornado warned, should pass very close to the town if it holds.

TS cool

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#1423008 - 09/05/2017 14:06 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
I should add for those interested in the CO potential and it is nice, I'd be thinking of playing around the Last Chance to Brush area..

TS cool


As you know we played the NE Colorado option and it certainly didn't disappoint. Some spectacular high-based supercells unzipping along the boundary located near Limon. Several strongly rotating updrafts throughout the afternoon with the initial cell we targeted north of Simla showing off a beautiful meso before teasing us all for at least 20 mins with repeated attempts at putting down a tornado. Some reported a brief touchdown but we were quite certain it remained a funnel only.


Colorado Funnel
by Orebound Images, on Flickr


Colorado Funnel
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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#1423029 - 10/05/2017 01:25 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Geez had a crack mate, nice images!

Yesterday fairly happy with how the main target in NM turned out with 2 tornado warned supercells within close proximity - one SW of Tucumcari which was a cyclic monster putting out 3 sep warnings and another brief one NW of Mosquero out near Roy.

Now today....again a little finicky about where one targets. I again see a spread of two areas, blending into one later on. The early stuff with less capping over Eastern NM should take off mid arvo and increase steadily with a mix of clusters and hopefully some discrete cells. Aloft we have a much more dynamic upper jet streak nosing in from the SW with a big exit region of lift and upper divergence spreading over all target areas late afternoon and evening. The sfc low seems to be split a bit into two areas on some models, one focus over central E NM and another over far SW TX into SE NM very late into the evening as the LLJ responds into the nocturnal hours from the lift aloft. The LLJ should transport the moisture quickly west with the dry line surging with it....however this SW TX area seems very capped for much of the day, but excellent shear and fat CAPE will be present. Loaded gun stuff....it might not go or even go properly but if it does look out, could see some powerful discrete storms erupt.

I think for me I'll have a crack at the more southern option but not position too far south as I want to allow for a little less capping and more influence from the lift aloft.

I'll target around the Eunice NM to Hobbs NM area in far SE NM, possibly or likely spreading into SW TX depending which cell is worth latching into but definitely more discrete options here than a little further NW/N. Large hail a big risk, could be very large infact with the shear/CAPE and a stronger tornado chance later in the day than yesterday with better shear profiles and higher dew point air.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (10/05/2017 01:28)

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#1423088 - 11/05/2017 01:00 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well yesterday was a fairly big day with multiple tornado reports across NM and far W TX. Target faired quite well for initiation at least with many supercells forming close to Hobbs but maximum tornadic potential was realised further N and NE into SW TX as the LLJ took it's time doing it's thing and by then the steer hard taken cells away. But def in the ballpark and chase able.

Now for today....another strong day of potential, albeit a late surge of potential like yesterday but perhaps a slighter shorter window.

Strong mid level shortwave aloft, really ripping in a speed max across the NM/TX/OK areas atm, cells certainly got some movement about them but this dynamic forcing is always important from the upper low. Of interest though is the sfc boundary layer....ongoing thunderstorm clusters and what not from last night should drape a nice boundary across W OK and the far eastern TX Panhandle. CIN is removed fairly early into the middle of the afternoon across the TX Panhandle with models hinting at multiple discrete supercells forming along the dryline with a sfc low in the vicinity. Nice high dew point air with 60-65F coming in straight off the Gulf and curving in just on the E/NE side of this sfc feature. The key is finding the boundary and any cell that can cross this boundary and ingest into the updraft....combined with the increasing LLJ things could turn rather severe rather quickly and a few strong tornadoes are possible. Otherwise for much of the initial 2-4hrs of the storm life, the low level balance might not be there to counteract the strong upper flow limiting organised low level meso's. Once the balance is found and the LLJ tears in (saving grace so damn often) things will spice up and this for me is going to be over SW OK, possibly into far N TX but getting away from the boundary there and a little S of the sfc low away from that nice curving of the low level winds.

So initiation around Childress TX but for a main target as such for that maximum tornado potential I like the Mangum OK area and surrounds and likely pushing NE from there. Looks like could be 3-4 discrete supercells pushing through there but aiming to hold fairly well south to possibly play the tail end charlie and make most of that LLJ being un-impeded.

TS cool

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#1423089 - 11/05/2017 04:27 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Yeah mate it was a bloody big days chasing yesterday starting with a several hundred mile drive down to SE New Mexico from where we overnighted in Lamar CO. Will write a bit of a report and post a couple pics when time permits but for now its back to the road for todays activity.

Initial starting target Hollis OK...
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#1423100 - 11/05/2017 08:50 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1541
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Nice photos Orebound ,Nice and sharp .Your living the dream mate. Have a good time .
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Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1423139 - 11/05/2017 23:52 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5481
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Great pics!! I should probably get into this chase target game again.


Edited by Wave Rider (11/05/2017 23:52)
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2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1423140 - 11/05/2017 23:56 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Geez another very big day! High end stuff, few brief touchdowns around the traps. Target faired very well, Childress for the initiation would have worked a threat with the main long-tracked supercell of the day forming to the WSW of there before going tornado warned around Childress and then the top part of the core going through Mangum. A second later beast also formed to the SW and took a more easterly path over far N TX and then into S OK. So much to chase, crazy large cells.

Now today things drop back a peg from the last 3 crazy days. Shear is less and certainly not elongated low level hodographs of days prior. However forcing is still fairly strong.

Two main areas of interest for mine, firstly N/NE OK with a triple point and weak sfc low enhancing a tickle of curved easterly into the lowers (not much though). Big instability and good lapse rates so large hail be the main threat here, likely some pretty big storms but my beef is how discrete will things stay and how clean will it all be in general. Could get messy fast with a fair bit going up in the vicinity.

Further south into Central to E TX should see more classic dry line attempts but the angle of the front trailing back will favour a general linear feature fairly quickly albeit with some embedded supercells from early more discrete modes but definitely lining out quickly here. Sfc winds more S than SE which will limit tornado threat to marginal only. Better chance of a discrete storm here and these areas can surprise a bit.

So of the two I favour the northern OK option given we are here to chase tornadoes and not chase Australian style storms like the TX option but def good stuff still to be had down there. Target is very hard given the mess but around Ponca City OK hopefully for something nice. All turning to mess as evening comes by and then a few lay days before a fairly textbook and strong dryline setup for KS/OK comes into play in a few days time with very large CAPE and decent but not high end shear.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (11/05/2017 23:56)

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#1423141 - 12/05/2017 00:58 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Thanks fellas. We have literally hundreds of shots to look over when we get a few down days so I'll hopefully get some more up on here soon.

Yeah Rowland yesterday was action-packed that's for sure, totally exhausting day out there too with ridiculously chaotic scenes of chaser convergence gone mad making the risks the storms bring seem insignificant in comparison to the dangers of just negotiating the roads with literally hundreds of speeding chaser vehicles and media networks clogging almost every route in and around each active storm.

Anyway, classic triple point initiation to the SW of Childress yesterday and what a beast it turned out to be. Knuckle dragging wall cloud produced a couple brief tornadoes rather early in its life-cycle before the thing went on to become a bloody huge HP thing over in OK and subsequently went outflow dominant. We raced south late in the day to target the tail-end Charlie back over the Red River in TX and geez it was a spectacular looking storm backlit by the setting sun. Produced a beautiful mothership-type meso there for a period while really tightening up the rotation but appeared to choke out again soon after. With the entire chaser cavalry on its tail as it crossed back into OK just on dark the LLJ gave it a kick in the guts it finally went tornado warned and produced a brief tornado near Grandfield.

As for today, we're currently having a lazy morning here in Wichita Falls TX trying to decide on a target for today but I'm not entirely inspired by the whole set-up to be honest. Ordinary looking hodographs appear to minimise the tornado threat to almost negligible although interactions between storms can often enhance low-level shear enough. Will be some very large hail out there though, particularly with the more discreet supercells. Will probably stay down here in Texas at this stage although plans are still fluid...
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#1423389 - 16/05/2017 00:32 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right after a few quiet days, time to make some targets again with 3 of the next 4 at least looking good. Especially tues and moreso thurs. The last target a few days ago went very linear, very quickly so Ponca City was only really in initiation before it all turned to rainband with storms surging east quickly.

Today the weakest of the 3 but nice upper forcing moving in from the SW overspreading a sharpening dryline through the panhandle. Moisture returning but still quite high based but shear is good so should some supercells about. Tornado threat very slim but never know with these slight/high based setups, they can surprise. Large hail/wind the main threats. So for today I don't mind the dryline convergence over the TX Panhandle, with slightly more SE at the sfc very late there to assist in that extra shear in the lowers. Target today is Turkey TX and see how we go. Initiation likely further west than this.

TS cool

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#1423414 - 16/05/2017 10:56 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
The risky tail end Charlie target prob not going to happen with only showers so far so would have got impatient and shot west to initiation on the dryline and get onto that lovely organised supercell near Stinnett atm. Given KS seems the go for tomorrow would have to keep tracking N later on.

TS cool

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#1423443 - 16/05/2017 17:46 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5840
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
Hello Folks:

Currently, "Real-Time Tornado, Tuscaloosa, AL" is airing on the US Weather Channel; I've seen this program before, as I've seen "Real-Time Tornado, Joplin, MO" a few times before.
I tried to find full vids of these 2 shows, but was unable to do so; however, I did find this vid (just over 52 minutes long), of a NG Documentary of the Joplin, Missouri tornado (this twister [EF-5] devastated Joplin on May 22, 2011; killing 168 & injuring over 1,000. Over 8,000 structures were damaged or destroyed, as the tornado had a path length of over 9kms & was almost 1km wide).
Warning: This vid has very awful & terrible damage footage.
Vid is here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nC8nV-xKpOs
Also, of interest (36 min) Audio of Joplin, Mo emergency services just prior to & after the tornado:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SV-LvICOGrE


Kind Wishes & Take Care~~~Wet Snow

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#1423472 - 17/05/2017 00:19 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right, things really step up a notch today!

We have a much strong upper level impulse moving in increasing that dynamic forcing. This will induce a very nice and sharp lee sfc trough with a sharpening dryline into the later afternoon. Bit of a sfc low shoots NW across NW KS into NE but the main focus is the juicy strengthening of the LLJ later across the TX and OK panhandles and into SW KS. Good moisture as well, very good lapse rates, large to very large FAT CAPE and small capping. Violent release...supporttive of giant hail. Could see softballs falling tomorrow so watch those windscreens but more importantly with that LLJ later, a decent tornado threat with a chance of one or two stronger tornadoes in discrete supercells. A nice traditional panhandle alley setup.

Target is a little tricky as the first stuff will fire over the N TX Panhandle and shoot into SW KS quickly, tornado possibly at first but this stuff will quickly congeal into a big MCS and rage across KS and further NE through the evening mostly with a big damaging and threat and hail. Maybe embedded tornado but we don't chase those.

Further south along the super sharp dryline, the second round of activity should fire up and shoot NNE to NE off it over central and E TX Panhandle into W OK. These cells are the ones to watch and if they can keep discrete, should tap into that LLJ and quickly organise into classic supercells and potentially long-lived cyclic ones. SPC very keen and even threw that word in which is rare for them. Almost expecting a MOD risk to come from this. Key tomorrow is how well they tap into the LLJ. I do see the dreaded veer-back-veer in their forecasts which often causes storms to weaken or not reach full potential so hopefully this isn't the case.

But target box area for tomorrow is Pampa TX pushing up to Canadian TX good roads from both towns so can quickly catch storms in all directions.

TS cool

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#1423499 - 17/05/2017 10:47 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Target area working pretty well with two massive tornadic supercells passing not far to the south of the area. Starting at Pampa a quick hope down to intercept the McLean TX tornado and then once that was decayed, dropping down to the next supercell in the line (production line chasing) which many chasers seemed to do today and that has put out a rain wrapped tornado near Elk City OK as LLJ maximises potential. Things will weaken soon though but third supercell at bottom of line needs to be watched for a bit. Now if only I was actually there......sigh

TS cool

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#1423540 - 17/05/2017 16:43 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Yeah mate it was an incredible day out there. We positioned ourselves at Shamrock TX to start the day after driving down from our overnight stop up in Liberal Kansas so didn't have to travel far to latch onto the first initiation near McLean. This particular storm turned out to be a prolific tornado producer over several hours as it tracked through the eastern panhandle into Oklahoma later in the evening. Managed to video the entire process of tornadogenesis with this one so looking forward to going over the footage.

A couple snaps..


McLean, TX Tornado
by Orebound Images, on Flickr


McLean, TX Rope Tornado
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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#1423586 - 18/05/2017 07:49 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Having a day off chasing today with the primary focus today well north of where we finished up yesterday and with a view to getting into position for what looks to be an extremely potent day across the central and southern plains tomorrow.

Will fine tune some potential target areas this evening but it goes without saying we will be heading to the triple point region somewhere in NW OK initially, perhaps around Woodward OK.

Some really sad images coming out of Elk City OK today after the big wedge that went through there yesterday unfortunately.

Here's a bit of video of that McLean TX tornado developing and later roping out as the circulation gets undercut by cold air.

McLean TX Tornado
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#1423594 - 18/05/2017 10:10 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1541
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Nice work Orebound .One person dead in Elk City OK yesterday .Sad news could have been a lot worse in a built up area. Damage video here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pi5tbUYB1AY


Edited by ozone doug (18/05/2017 10:15)
Edit Reason: 25% more
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch50 and ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1423666 - 19/05/2017 01:26 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right this is a bit late but it's because I've been taking forever to analyse everything for this rather potent tornado setup over the guts of tornado alley.

Essentially we have a near textbook setup - strong sfc low with warm front subtending off it, cold front advancing from the west, a sharpening dryline below the warm front and a triple point area at the intersection of all of the above. To the S/SE we have strong moisture advection of rich Gulf air fluxing rapidly toward the N/NW and aloft with have a strong upper trough with a big exit region overspreading the region. All this with 3500-5000J/Kg of CAPE and strong veering wind shear with height, especially near the warm front over KS.

Now SPC have a high risk and probably rightly so though I have seen better setups for tornado outbreaks. They are calling an outbreak and that's fair and well but there are a couple of 'concerns' with regards to how things pan out. Firstly given the immense amount of warm, moist air advecting over the warm sector, we could see a lot of cloudiness and early convection which may act to modify the highly volatile environment and mitigate any high end tornado threat later in the day. Secondly, with so much convection and powerful dynamic forcing aloft and an increasing mid level speed max, things may go linear a little earlier and become more outflow dominated. I think though, there is enough SE in the LLJ rapidly intensifying later in the day to balance things out and keep things discrete.

But anyways, what we should see is multiple supercells forming, more of them over KS and becoming a bit more isolated and discrete perhaps down into OK and possibly far eastern TX Panhandle depending on where the dryline sets up. Any supercell that times itself crossing the warm front later in the day in KS combined with that strengthening LLJ (best over central KS again) has a very high chance of putting down a violent long-tracked tornado capable of severe damage. This is why SPC have the high risk chiefly over the warm front/LLJ speed max intersection especially.

Further south into OK I feel we will have more time up our sleeves for convection with a little more capping in place, especially right on the dryline. HRRR has been confusing by shooting up mid afternoon 'mess' from OK into KS then re-convecting supercells off the dryline later in the day and then going linear raging east across OK. But into a modified environment. Not sure about this....I feel NW OK will erupt with multiple discrete supercells which will quickly make use of the increasing inflow from the gathering LLJ and become tornado warned or close to it. Again chance of strong long-tracked tornadoes here so need to be very careful. Woodward OK seems like a good spot here pushing NE into KS or at least far N OK later on.

For me playing south of the warm front would be my style. At the risk of a barrage of glob and goop over KS despite acknowledging the BEST tornadic risk also being there, I will target NW OK in the hope of a clean, discrete classic supercell with a large tornado. Should also mention with lapse rates of 8-8.5C/km and the aforementioned CAPE and shear, giant 4 inch hail is also a chance. 0-3KM SRH values approaching 500M2 S-2, are also nothing to be sneezed at...infact they are quite scary should anything really get going, nothing is going to stop an EF5 forming tomorrow given the conditions present.

Overall, my target area for tomorrow will be around Alva OK. I've picked here because it is still a quick hop into KS but also in a good spot hopefully too catch dryline action moving in from the W/SW and has good roads in all directions so should maximise my chances once I'd be choosing my particular cell.

TS cool

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#1423667 - 19/05/2017 01:30 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Nice little video there Orebound!! did well the other day mate. Looking forward to seeing what you get today.

TS cool

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#1423668 - 19/05/2017 01:35 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
LOL, TS just read your last 3 lines I drove to Enid yesterday with a view of driving to Alva this morning. Funny.

Anyway, story so far after arriving Saturday arvo

Sunday - Caught a very pretty non severe storm just east of the Wyoming border into Nebraska. The view looking west(hope this works as windows 10 cant find any compressing photo stuff like picture perfect)



Monday - Chased C W Kansas up into NW KS, not very photogenic but was fun to watch this transition from a dry air big Australian type storm to a mega (quantity moreso than size by US Standards) hail dumping severe warned storm. This is a shot from its backside with hail shaft to the left

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#1423670 - 19/05/2017 01:55 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Tuesday I headed to OK Panhandle to the north of Orebound and this meant I got the first storm of the day and saw this. Have to supply links as I didn't re size right

http://i.imgur.com/GDVqgi4.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/OeJwMQj.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/xprGAIo.jpg


I then motored down to Sweetwater, Sayers City Elk City area. TBH didn't really see anything other than flash flooding, power outages , roads blocked and giant hail by the roadside. I did see the wall cloud on Elk city storm briefly but did not see any tornado. Ended up stuck in Elk City for the night with no power. This was the view from my hotel room of the culprit as it wound down

http://i.imgur.com/Rykg9Eu.jpg


Edited by Ruckle (19/05/2017 01:57)
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#1423671 - 19/05/2017 02:08 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Nice stuff Ruckle.

We are in Woodward Ok for the time being and happy to stay put here for now.
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#1423672 - 19/05/2017 02:32 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Just couldn't resist the look at the latest modelling whilst in bed (I need help) and certainly now worried about first round of activity shooting up from SW OK into NW OK and KS...SPC mention this is likely elevated in nature and it does move fast so not ideal for tornadoes. Alva target is in middle of two options, check out the first round and see if anything is tornadic.....if not then shoot west to the dryline to intercept more discrete supercells....good chance I'll be heading that way so another area that interests me is Laverne OK and keeping an eye on anything that forms down the far western OK panhandle. Could be a long relocation if the main area does not fire but we shall see. Options aplenty.

TS cool

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#1423716 - 19/05/2017 10:27 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Geez what a day.....bit messy as feared but that's mostly KS.....Alva target would have been ok in the end! three tornado warned supercells passing close to the town, the current one probably the strongest and still remaining quite discrete away from the mess! looks like could be a tornado on the ground but hard to say, very strong signature on velocity...

Earlier a strong tornado was on the ground well SW of Alva but the storm dropped the tornado warning as it approached but I think overall I wouldn't have had to shoot to the dryline...more a case of letting them come to me.

TS cool

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#1423797 - 19/05/2017 23:56 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2356
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Yeah tough day out there yesterday with widespread explosive development tending to clutter things up a bit. Still some very nice storms out there though and several tornado events, 18 in the preliminary report.

Today is threatening to be stifled by overnight and ongoing morning activity but we shall see what can get up later ahead of the front. Will probably poke around somewhere to the south of OKC later on.

Bit of a pano of a thing that tended outflow dominant but looked quite pretty there for a period..


HP Supercell, Leedey OK
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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#1423798 - 20/05/2017 00:42 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Beautiful shot mate!

Now today is still a dark horse, I don't mind it at all. If the cluster of severe thunderstorms currently over TX can settle down a bit as the LLJ weakens off from heating then it may disperse enough to allow some atmosphere recovery as it has been strongly overturned from yesterdays big scale uplift.

Moisture is still plentiful across the warm sector and instability large although not as large as yest.....Shear stronger than yesterday even but just lacking that turning.

I think development will be focused off the outflow boundary of the current activity, pushing into SW OK and then central OK during the middle of the arvo, possibly some discrete modes at first on or ahead of the OFB with increasing inflow and the alignment more ENE-WSW may allow inflow areas to be clear to the S/SE side rather than a flat N-S line where its all on big plough motoring across the plains undercutting everything.

Second option is to push deep into TX and await more discrete and isolated activity at the foot of the OFB. This could well be a goer if it remains away from mess so definitely an option....omnly thing is the shear and turning is less down here but strong supercells likely and a tornado or two possible.

For me I'll be bold and have a crack as S OK....Comanche OK to be precise. Like Alva OK yesterday, gives me good road options in all directions to shoot south or east etc to play with any new cells elsewhere.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (20/05/2017 00:42)

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#1424418 - 27/05/2017 00:03 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well after a few days chasing deep south TX and few weaker storms over NM and CO today I'll throw out a target in prep for a bigger day tomorrow (tomorrow has SBCAPE around 8500J/Kg which is pretty much illegal). Shame the shear is not quite as special but solid all the same.

Today I'll play around Firstveiw and Cheyenne Wells in CO...could be another good spot in far NE CO but need to be more south for 2moro over E OK and MO.

TS cool

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#1424457 - 27/05/2017 23:51 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Hi all, greetings from a VERY muggy Muskogee OK. Interesting day today, a moderate risk of not seeing anything due to hills and trees and flooded lakes and creeks in this part of the world!

A few snaps since the last update.

Thursday 18th May. This is from the eastern edge of Alva OK, lots of dangling fingers and features from the wall cloud, may have been a brief spin up but if so was extremely brief and weak. Had produced further south around Waynoka.





After this headed south as new storms formed on the dry line, looks a bit like it was the same storm Orebound showed above.

This was taken just west of Enid OK





The next day the 19th I ended up in N TX near Wichita Falls

Didn't see much although the mess below was trying to organise before it unleashed torrents of rain on Wichita Falls area

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#1424459 - 28/05/2017 00:14 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
On 21st May headed to central Eastern parts of New Mexico which is always promising from a pretty point of view. As usual the photos don't quite do the scenes justice but was pretty impressive. These storms were all warned at one stage or another for straight line winds and or hail and were heading SE which makes for odd positioning at times.





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#1424460 - 28/05/2017 00:14 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
The next day the 22nd was heaps of fun also in New Mexico but a little further south. After watching some storms try and fail initially around Hobbs and bumping into Clyve and Jane I headed towards a storm east and then SE of Roswell. I did not see any UFO's but did watch a magnificent storm that became tornado warned (though it did not produce a tornado just rotated). Truly epic site over the desert. It actually split as it headed SE. Eastern storm before it fizzled looked like this



The western and soon to be warned storm is below

[img]http://i.imgur.com/5Hlfz8n.jpg?1[/img] I edited this so only have link



I did get a few dents from the hail at the right of this shot




Back of the storm





Edited by Ruckle (28/05/2017 00:20)
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#1424461 - 28/05/2017 00:46 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Spent a couple of days in New Mexico and Southern Colorado spectacular scenery. On Thursday 25th I headed to Yuma CO and found this storm which I tracked into NW Kansas, it did produce a brief tornado near the border and I hope my video caught it, though on first glance there is lots of swearing, fumbling about and side of car hill shots! Other notable event was the shear frequency of lightning allowed me to get to reasonable lightning flukes without a tripod or a timer etc. Just clicking away.

Colorado

Weak rotation at this time



STW at this point



In Kansas now, WNW of St Francis, above mentioned fumbling around has already occurred, was T warned still at this time but I think was just reorganising



Further east



_________________________
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#1424463 - 28/05/2017 00:49 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Yesterday elected to not have a repeat show in NE CO and instead drove to E OK, had hoped for a random decent storm here as there was a weak surface boundary. It did occur but not till around 10pm. Was quite a light show for a little while but was never warned.

Today, 27th, still sitting in hotel posting all this and waiting to see where boundary sets up as opposed to where models say it will..
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#1424464 - 28/05/2017 01:47 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14820
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Awesome images Ruckle!!!

Yea yesterday was a funny one, the far NE CO option indeed did fire properly with meh choice being not much more than a weak isolated thunderstorm....so would have had to abandon it for the supercell further N.....and wouldn't have had any trouble given the damn thing lasted abut 10-11 hours lol and ploughed well into KS.

But today is looking rather frightening to be honest...some of the numbers of RAW instability are absolutely off the charts literally....even the HRRR scales don't go this high. Have seen some SBCAPE's getting around in order of 8800J/Kg with MLCAPE pushing 7300J/Kg....come on that's just SILLY!!! that's bloody illegal!!! Throw in a well capped environment and you have the absolute classic loaded gun in it's highest order. When the cap is broken and if does break late afternoon, the updrafts are going to get registered on the Moh's scale....ROCK hard nuclear explosions. All this with BIG dynamic forcing aloft, only modest by Plain's standards but wow....instability eat your heart out.

So we have a nice low forming over OK moving east with a cold front pushing in from the west and a dryline extending south ahead of this. A nice triple point should be setup across far NE OK. Now also looks like we will have a nice OFB moving S-SSE from earlier activity that gets up over SE KS and this boundary will fire off storms along it or anything that is already going down the dryline that crosses it will probably go nuts and put down a big nader. The angles are not as juicy with sfc winds being more SW-S rather than SE however we do have more W-E to even ESE steering flow aloft so the overall vectors are consistent to produce big rotating supercells and potential for violent long-tracked tornadoes. SPC have gone as far as mentioning a historic supercell from 1997! which was the last time instability was so high.

So for me, a tough day to chase, but in setups like this you have to play close attention to the triple point but with added watch of that big OFB....and will discrete storms further S down the dryline be juicier? down into S OK. Probably taller with hail to 5 inches....insane!!! So triple point play will be with myself sitting down the dryline a bit from it, given the steer allowing more south distance is ok.... won't have to go forest chasing into MO but that does appear possible atm. HRRR also initiates some earlier convection by mid arvo across NE OK which may change the ball game! lot of sky watching tomorrow I think!

But target area around Calvin in C to E OK as I don't want to be caught moving south, south, south all day to keep ahead of this flying boundary as it really moves...discrete beasts and latch onto one and see how they behave with approaching boundary.

TS cool

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#1424512 - 28/05/2017 18:36 Re: 2017 U.S. Severe Weather season [Re: Asturai]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1541
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the S Wes...
Nice work Ruckle .Love to see the nice stuff you guy get to watch.
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BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
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