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#1403598 - 22/01/2017 12:00 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6741
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Waiting for the next historical, record-breaking, out-of-this-world deluge to plant the seeds for the next exceptional cropping season...followed by the next historical one...and so on laugh ... without the exceptionally atrocious winds.

I'm patient smile .


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (22/01/2017 12:03)
_________________________
Only the most naive gamblers bet against physics, and only the most irresponsible bet with their grandchildrens resources.

-- William H. Calvin.

[A quote about abrupt weather pattern changes occurring within decades.]

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#1403608 - 22/01/2017 15:20 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1511
Loc: Bridgewater
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS

For people in the
North West Pastoral district.

Issued at 2:19 pm Sunday, 22 January 2017.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and damaging wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Marla, Ernabella, Amata, Maralinga, Oak Valley and Cook.

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#1403647 - 22/01/2017 23:22 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
*jr* Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/01/2011
Posts: 76
Sitting at Cactus beach watching a great system go through the North West. It's probably 100 k's away... Hard to tell. Strikes every 5 second

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#1403651 - 23/01/2017 00:14 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 181
Loc: Renmark
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
HEADS UP EVERYONE!!!!!!!!

looking to get a bit of rain mon./tues. but the vile
toxic ridge is looking to come in earlier and keep the
longwave pushed more north away from the coast, the
surface trough appears to move through adelaide around
mid afternoon resulting in a w/sw change.
if storms can arc up early enough on north central and
north eastern EP then steering winds might just well do
the same as last thursday and adelaide might just get
lucky. upper winds are divergant again, moisture and
instability indexes are excellent for upper EP,
iron triangle-woomera and flinders. things are more
north overall than last thurs. but one has to remember
that KI got smashed last thurs. too. adelaide is still
in with a chance at this stage.
forecast soundings for up north are nuts with cloud
tops going to 55-60,000' again, for up there this setup
is going to be more savage than feral Rottweiler with
rabies, damnit i wish i could be up there, if you can
be back up in the same place you were last time StL
there's a good chance you'll get your ass kicked straight
into next month.
watch your back Galaxyman, steering winds are in your
favour again but better is capes are holding right to
you rather than things falling into a hole right on
your doorstep. this is looking like your best chance
to get properly plastered and i ain't talking about
beer either.
in summery as things stand atm north of roughly
pt wakefield is looking to get smashed again, south
of in with a chance down to as far as fleurieu.
so it comes down to watch your backs....and models.

TH



Honestly mate , I've given up being excited. Becker said it best: "No expectations, no disappointment".

BOM have the magic words in the forecast again, "storm LIKELY". So the fizzer is in the bag, but I'll be most happy to eat my words!

On a positive note, looks like the month will be rounded out on a warm note. High 30's to 40 here. ACCESS showing 850 temps up to 30C in the north and this is reflected in the OCF forecasts with up to 47C in Moomba. The polar assault GFS had progged a couple days ago looks to be thankfully shelved.

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#1403660 - 23/01/2017 08:41 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17415
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Forecast for Renmark is a CHANCE of a thunderstorm.
No wonder you get annoyed up there if you are following adelaides forecast.
TBH people are tired of the complaining anyway.

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#1403670 - 23/01/2017 10:10 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 181
Loc: Renmark
Yesterday it was LIKELY. I follow Renmark's forecast, not sure why you assume I use Adelaide when I don't live there

Rest assured, there'll be complaining if it's another fail, reading my complaining is optional so no need to get tired


Edited by Galaxyman (23/01/2017 10:10)

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#1403671 - 23/01/2017 10:10 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: *jr*]
Skysthelimit Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/11/2008
Posts: 1076
Loc: Gladstone Sth Aust
Originally Posted By: *jr*
Sitting at Cactus beach watching a great system go through the North West. It's probably 100 k's away... Hard to tell. Strikes every 5 second



Thats a great spot *jr* I'm no surfer but I used to like to visit Cactus Beach in my youth. I remember a friend and I running amongst those giant sandhills one night during a thunderstorm when the lightning turned night to day. It was surreal....it was magical ...


Not sure what today will bring but heres hoping. Mightn't have to wait long to find out. Lots of annoying cloud I'd prefer wasn't there frown

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#1403672 - 23/01/2017 10:12 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 275
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
22mm here thismorning calm heavy steady rain, eased a bit now, but thunder and blackness just to the west and NW.. moving in again. Tropical!

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#1403673 - 23/01/2017 10:15 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17415
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Galaxy man, Do you understand that if a storm doesn't directly hit your house it doesn't mean it's a fail. None of the previous events you have described as fails have been fails. There have been huge storms in parts of the Riverland in these systems.
Basically you just need to chill out and if you are lucky enough to get something then fantastic but enough of the constant whinging ok.

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#1403685 - 23/01/2017 11:13 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Kezza34 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 27/12/2016
Posts: 9
Loc: Modbury Heights SA
Looking grey and feeling heavy this morning.

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#1403692 - 23/01/2017 12:25 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Stargate Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/09/2003
Posts: 721
Loc: Elizabeth Park, Northern Subu...
Well said Teckert (it does get tiresome), been some great storms close by and afar, good top up rains where needed..Anyway even when it don't hit me over head it's fantastic to read the reviews on where it did..Been with this forum a long time but rarely give my view on how things look to me as don't have the basic knowledge of what the models do, quite often what I think may happen comes off other times way off the mark ( all part of learning )...

Keep up the great work guys its a joy to pop in everyday...

Steve

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#1403698 - 23/01/2017 12:51 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17415
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
very nice fall out at Cummins already today with 33mm

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#1403700 - 23/01/2017 13:11 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Stargate Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/09/2003
Posts: 721
Loc: Elizabeth Park, Northern Subu...
38mm now and still more to come..

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#1403701 - 23/01/2017 13:14 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 459
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Ok, latest look at the charts suggest some big storms out over northern EP, upper Mid North, and Flinders this afternoon.

Adelaide's chances?? Ok, bit like a few days ago but my concern today is lack of heating and clear air, and instability tapers off rather rapidly from the north before Adelaide.

Time frame is between 3-5pm before it all clears East.
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1403703 - 23/01/2017 13:25 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3849
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
Some big wet stuff to the south sliding se, hopefully that will
Juice up the lowers for when the clear stuff comes in behind it.
Already starting to spark on the tail end of the wet band.
Getting light rain at edwardstown atm.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1403704 - 23/01/2017 13:28 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
red earth Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 21/12/2007
Posts: 359
Loc: Lockleys, Adelaide
And a nice drop down here near the airport at the moment.

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#1403707 - 23/01/2017 13:47 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 459
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Very steady to heavy rain here atm
_________________________
I hate it when somebody comes
to your front door and puts their finger
over the peephole . . . so to get around
that I've got eleven peepholes.
Elliot Goblet

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#1403711 - 23/01/2017 14:18 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17415
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia Regional Office
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

for HEAVY RAINFALL and DAMAGING WINDS

For people in the West Coast, Lower Eyre Peninsula, North West Pastoral and parts of the Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula and North East Pastoral districts.

Issued at 1:02 pm Monday, 23 January 2017.
Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and damaging wind gusts of 90 to 125 km/h in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Port Lincoln, Ceduna, Marla, Coober Pedy, Roxby Downs, Elliston, Cleve, Oodnadatta and Woomera.
Appoximately 50mm of rain was reported from Elliston this morning.
38mm of rain has been recorded at Cummins since 9am this morning. (up to 47mm now)

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#1403713 - 23/01/2017 14:31 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17415
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology South Australia

INITIAL FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST PASTORAL DISTRICTS

Issued at 1:50 pm CDT on Monday 23 January 2017
By the Bureau of Meteorology, South Australia.

A very moist, unstable airmass lies across the north of the state. This is triggering thunderstorms and showers across the Northeast and Northwest Pastoral districts.

Localised flooding may lead to road closures near the border of the Northwest and Northeast Pastoral districts north of Coober Pedy.

Weather Forecast:
Thunderstorms and showers may result in falls until midnight Tuesday of 10-40 mm with local heavy falls of 40-100 mm most likely near the border of the Northwest and Northeast Pastoral districts north of Coober Pedy. People should refer to the latest warnings on the Bureau's website

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#1403722 - 23/01/2017 16:44 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
split_city Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2008
Posts: 1032
Loc: Port Noarlunga, South Australi...
It's nice for us southern suburb people to get a good drop of rain.

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