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#1403728 - 23/01/2017 16:58 Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 787
Loc: NW Sydney - quakers heights
Im quietly excited for tomorrow, with the season the way its been its hard to be too boisterous. On 1st inspection instability appeared marginal/ok, but replotting soundings to 38-39c gives -3/-4 lis and 1000cape. With very high humidity and strong almost too high moisture profile and good forcing with a well timed change i can dare to dream of a beautiful buster roll with heavy rain encroaching from sw around 3pm preceeded by explosive updraughts on mtns giving nice entree tstorms b4 main course. Hope the dud season hasnt got me too dreamy, what are your thoughts


Edited by Seabreeze (24/01/2017 15:10)
Edit Reason: added year

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#1403735 - 23/01/2017 17:20 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Personally I couldn't care less if Sydney gets a storm or not - Sydney isn't the centre of the universe. I haven't had any decent storms here, just a bit of thunder and a lot of near misses, one good storm in the middle of the night which knocked out my phone line. It would be great if we got a good old fashioned storm rolling across, but I fear it will be the usual spotty instability, you have to be under it to be lucky.

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#1403736 - 23/01/2017 17:28 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: greg.l]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5082
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: greg.l
Personally I couldn't care less if Sydney gets a storm or not - Sydney isn't the centre of the universe. I haven't had any decent storms here, just a bit of thunder and a lot of near misses, one good storm in the middle of the night which knocked out my phone line. It would be great if we got a good old fashioned storm rolling across, but I fear it will be the usual spotty instability, you have to be under it to be lucky.


That's the way it is for all of us Greg.
We all live in hope when a positive forecast comes out.
If it doesn't happen, so be it. Hence a lot of the disappointment over this Summer.

As for Quagy's post, I like your enthusiasm.
SA is going off at the moment so I hope that instability crosses the state tomorrow and ends up giving us some joy.


Edited by Homer (23/01/2017 17:32)

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#1403737 - 23/01/2017 17:48 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5965
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Greg- you've had one good storm more than some that post here.

Yep lovin your enthusiasm Quagmelson but I'm not really feeling it tbh. It's hard to be positive with such a bad start to the season. Even after your replot, -3/-4 LI's and 1000 CAPE are nothing to write home about but our standards have to be lower for this poor excuse of a storm season. So bring on tomorrow for whatever it may deliver!!
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1403741 - 23/01/2017 18:25 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 458
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Forget what storms look and sound like.

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#1403751 - 23/01/2017 19:36 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Forget what storms look and sound like.


Here here, last storm season was dry, nothing at all, this storm season... I've seen plenty of distant storms but am yet to be hit by one. Weird considering my place is usually a magnet for storms.

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#1403771 - 23/01/2017 22:07 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
davidm Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1543
Loc: Orange, NSW
Enhanced IR sat is looking insane over SA and central Australia - don't think I've seen such high topped clouds in a long time. Looked like we were going to get something hear this afternoon, but they're just not moving.

Tomorrow's looking very good if the forecast comes through. Lets see if we can get a bit more to top up the 40mm we got the other day wink
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1403789 - 24/01/2017 07:10 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3335
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
"Layers" (enhanced infrared) is still looking impressive over SA, with a massive area of red in the NE of the stato 32.0te, including a white patch (about -90 degrees) North of Lake Eyre. Using a lapse rate of 6 degrees per 1,000 metres, that would be a height of about 18,000 to 20,000 metres.

It's already over 30 at some stations around Sydney. Some coastal stations are above yesterday's maximum, including OH (29.6 so far), the Airport (31.1) and especially Bellambi (which has been as high as 32.0).

EDIT: no sign of any change on the South Coast as yet. Bega is on 32 degrees.


Edited by Steve777 (24/01/2017 07:16)

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#1403794 - 24/01/2017 08:18 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5965
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Have woken up just now feeling very hot. I left the window open and it is up to 34C already at 8am. We should get our first 40C degree day but I think it will only just nudge over it, maybe 41C at the very highest.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1403796 - 24/01/2017 08:37 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5965
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Now 36.0C with gusts close to 80km/h at 8:30am and even dew points are hanging in there at 19C so low level moisture shouldn't be a problem with this NWer. Also, those light showers on the tablelands are moving quite swiftly and is very convincing for this time of morning that there is even any kind of precip. The southerly this afternoon should bring in some nice moisture as it will be a humid one so that could actually help storms for a little while. Green Cape is getting the southerly and a dew point of 21C, and the DP on the boundary of the southerly is likely to get higher.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1403801 - 24/01/2017 09:23 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9569
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Bit of a shower coming through here now - been a damned hot night for here, min around 24, which may well be a record unless 9am reset nobbles it.

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#1403804 - 24/01/2017 09:38 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: DaveM]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5965
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Bit of a shower coming through here now - been a damned hot night for here, min around 24, which may well be a record unless 9am reset nobbles it.


Looks you do actually have a record Dave as it was 23.9C at 9am yesterday which smashes the January record of 22.1C and also beats the record for any month which is 23.0C. These stats are for the Ap btw.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1403807 - 24/01/2017 10:23 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
This morning it was clear over Mt Horrible but cloudy everywhere else, a bit of a reversal. had a brief shower (of rain) but it was moving fast. Last night was hot but not as hot as last week, the temperature isn't rising very quickly so that's a relief.

The rain further west on the radar seems to peter out as it moves east.

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#1403809 - 24/01/2017 10:48 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3335
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The Southerly passed through Bega just before 10:00 but hadn't reached Montague Island by 10:30.

Hot, humid and partly cloudy here with sunny periods. It does look like cloud will increase as the day goes by.

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#1403810 - 24/01/2017 10:52 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9569
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Unfortunately the shower was very light.

It's an interesting sort of day though, at least different to most days smile

If we could jag a storm later that would be good smile

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#1403812 - 24/01/2017 10:55 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5965
Loc: Wollongong NSW
It's completely cloudy here Steve but hopefully the temp and DP combo alone (33/21) should spark storms without the sun. Also very windy atm and of course incredibly humid.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1403816 - 24/01/2017 11:37 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
Dipole Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/01/2013
Posts: 319
Loc: Hervey Bay 48m,Tuross Head
Southerly change has just through Tuross Head, very welcome.

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#1403817 - 24/01/2017 11:44 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
kathrynsview Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 31/07/2011
Posts: 20
Loc: NEWPORT
Most of you on here know this one, https://earth.nullschool.net
Gives a pretty good visual of where the southerly is located

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#1403818 - 24/01/2017 11:46 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5082
Loc: Dural
kathrynsview,

Does it update itself or do you have to refresh the page?

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#1403819 - 24/01/2017 11:54 Re: Southerly change/storms. Tuesday January 24th 2017 [Re: Quagmelson]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9569
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Such a pretty thing to look at smile

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