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#1404005 - 25/01/2017 18:35 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3499
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Just looking at the forecast now. A couple of things:

1. Very hot day pairs
---------------------
Next Monday and Tuesday January 30-31 look set to repeat a pattern we've had a few times this month - a pair of very hot days with a very warm (sometimes near record) night in between. Sea breezes in some cases kept coastal stations to the high 20s on the first day but they got get a bonus addition from the 9:00 reset. The heat is terminated on the second day by a cool change.


This also seems to have occured on:
January 23-24
January 17-18
January 13-14
Possibly also January 10-11
I think also Dec 13-14 was similar, as possibly was Dec 28-29. Hard to tell after a few weeks.

Inland, 30-31 is a bit different because a third hot day is added, following another warm night.

2. Record January Temps
-----------------------
If the forecast is correct, OH beats two 158-year records for average min-max: 21.7 (+0.6) to 29.6 (+0.1)

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#1404007 - 25/01/2017 18:48 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
WR - we had an arsonist caught at wattle flat a couple of years ago, it was very distressing for the local community but the guy spun the magistrate a sob story and got off with time served. Not all people seem to see the gravity of arson in the community.

This summer reminds me a lot of 2004 because it is the same pattern of heat coming down through the central west and central tablelands (also hunter). The northern and southern parts of the state seem to be escaping the worst of the heat.

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#1404014 - 25/01/2017 19:52 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Green Fields Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2016
Posts: 67
Loc: Dubbo
The north west of the state has been very hot this month as well, particularly the past 2-3 weeks. I just had a look at the running monthly stats, most of the north west plains and upper western is running between 2-4 degrees above average maximum and about 2 degrees above average minimum. Mungindi seems to have the highest anomoly at the moment, with average max 4.9 degrees above average. My two towns, Lightning Ridge averaging 38.7 (+ 2.7 deg) and Walgett 39.5 (+ 4 deg). Several places across the region look set to break records for highest min and max, with basically no temps below about 39 and several days in the 40s next week.

Agreed about the arsonists, its something I always worry about in those more heavily populated areas near forested areas. The psychology behind it is quite sick and twisted frown.

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#1404025 - 25/01/2017 21:06 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6289
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I guess it would be hard for a judge to draw the line as to whether a fire was accidental or deliberately lit so the benefit of the doubt would be given sometimes. But it sounds like in the Wattle Flat instance he got out of it via a different argument and he shouldn't have got out of it. How can you have a sob story as an excuse to light a fire!?!? Yeah greeny I don't quite understand what goes through these people's heads.

--------------

Perhaps more surprising is that the anomaly (+4) is the same for the minimums at Walgett which means it's averaging 24C this month. Moree is apparently on its 29th day over 35C and the record is 31. From checking, Walgett had its last sub 35 degree day on Dec 26 which would mean today would be about the 29th day over 35 there too. Crazy heat!!
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1404032 - 25/01/2017 21:42 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
The wattle flat arsonist must have been good at getting sympathy because when he was first arrested he was given bail, in the middle of summer! The police appealed straight away and he was remanded, but then 9 months later he pled guilty and was sentenced to time served. If it had been in Sydney the sentence would have been a lot more severe, with some media attention. Just for endangering the life of the RFS volunteers he should have had much worse punishment, let alone the danger to the town of wattle flat.

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#1404040 - 25/01/2017 22:48 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: WarrenTheSnowMan]
Kangaroo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2007
Posts: 116
Loc: Berowra, Sydney
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
Stop making these threads, we don't need to be reminded that we're going to burn in hell!


I'm currently in Furano Japan and coming back to Sydney next Wednesday (1.2.2017). Hoping that next Tuesday is the end of the summer heat nonsense.

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#1404048 - 26/01/2017 01:16 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5791
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey g'day gang! Reporting from the Gungahlin area in Canberra, having arrived from Melbourne (en route to Sydney) around 4 hours ago. Good to be back in NSW/ACT! smile

My fiancee and I managed to catch a lift (by sheer coincidence lol) with a friend who happens to be heading on a long-distance road trip from Melbourne to Port Macquarie, Coffs Harbour and Tamworth (via Albury/Wodonga, Canberra, Sydney and Newcastle) at the exact same time! Lol timed perfectly! grin

My report for the past 24 hours...

Our friend arrived to pick us up from Belgrave in the Dandenong Ranges around 7am. After having brekky and tidying up and locking up the house, we left home shortly after 7:30am.

An hour later we reached Lilydale, then exited metropolitan Melbourne and drove north along the Melba Highway through the Yarra Valley and over the Great Dividing Range, reaching Yea around 9:30am.

Just after 10am, we continued on from Yea. Because of limited traffic going towards Lake Eildon, we drove through Bonnie Doon towards Mansfield, then north up the Midland Highway to Benalla, rather than going towards Seymour.

Unfortunately, there were plenty of roadworks on the Goulburn Valley and Midland Highways, but by midday we finally reached the M31 Hume Freeway (Melbourne-Sydney). smile

We stopped for lunch in Glenrowan near Wangaratta around 20 minutes later and stayed for nearly an hour. Just before 2:30pm, we finally crossed the Murray River from Victoria into New South Wales at Albury/Wodonga! smile

Around 10 minutes later, my fiancee and I were dropped off at the train station (our friend is still spending the night at the Border btw). The V/line bus to Canberra showed up around 4pm, and after waiting for passengers aboard the train from Melbourne to arrive, the bus left the Border for the Capital around 4:20pm. smile

The bus stopped at Holbrook around 5pm, Tarcutta at roughly 5:45pm, and finally Gundagai for a 5-minute toilet break around 6:15pm. About 2 hours we finally reached Canberra; we crossed the NSW/ACT Border just after 8pm btw! smile

Weatherwise, it was a bit of sharp contrasts. It was around 11C at home when I left, so it felt cold! There was patchy morning fog in the Yarra Valley (mainly towards Healesville and the Black Spur), but otherwise skies were mostly clear and sunshine was abundant. smile

Continuing north over the Divide, it was warming up very quickly. By the time we reached Yea it was around 17-19C. At Swanpool, south of Benalla (around 11:45am), it was 24C. By the time we were in the Glenrowan/Wangaratta area at lunchtime it was around 28C, really hotting up out across the Northern Plains! But all the while I noted increasing cloud due to the trough over inland NSW.

Temperatures soared to around 32C at the Border, but cloudcover (plus higher elevation from Gundagai to the Capital) caused temperatures later in the day to fall down into the 20s for the remainder of the journey. A stunning sunset followed to greet us as we arrived in Canberra! smile

Maximums and minimums at weather stations along or near the route we took from Melbourne to Canberra, as well as for Corryong where my parents are still based:

Melbourne - 13.6C / 20.6C
Scoresby - 8.3C / 23.7C
Ferny Creek - 9.1C / 19.7C
Coldstream Comparison - 6.8C / 24.6C
Mangalore - 12.6C / 28.5C
Eildon - 9.5C / 26.8C
Wangaratta Airport - 13.0C / 31.4C
Albury Airport - 16.4C / 31.8C
Corryong Airport - NA / NA
Khancoban Airport - 12.2C / 31.1C
Wagga Wagga Airport - 13.7C / 31.9C
Canberra Airport - 15.5C / 27.5C

Currently around 18C and mostly cloudy here in Canberra. smile

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#1404050 - 26/01/2017 01:32 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6289
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Have fun ASF. It will be very hot there during the next week, probably similar to your Corryong holidays. Meant to peak at 39 degrees on Tuesday which is a big number for Canberra. Usually it would be a good time of year for storms around the southern tablelands, but everywhere in NSW seems to be appalling this summer.

Adelaide is the new storm capital of Australia.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1404059 - 26/01/2017 07:30 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3499
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Yes, have fun ASF. Some of those place names are familiar, having featured in the Black Saturday fires in 2009. Then Glenrowan of Ned Kelly fame.

------

It's warm, calm and humid in Sydney, yet again under a solid grey dome. What wind there is seems to be a light Southerly. Late last night night it was clear and starry, feeling almost cool. I was hopeful of a cool, crisp morning followed by a sunny day, but it looks like it was not to be, at least so far.

The BOM must be expecting some breaks in the cloud otherwise we won't reach our forecast maxima of 27/30 (coast/inland). Same yesterday, had the sun made an appearance, the forecast of 26/30 would have been correct.

Memo to the North West: stop sending us your cloud, especially when it's unproductive (no rain or storms). We get more than enough crap blowing in off the Tasman, we don't need it.



Edited by Steve777 (26/01/2017 07:31)

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#1404063 - 26/01/2017 08:51 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: Steve777]
Green Fields Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2016
Posts: 67
Loc: Dubbo
Yeah WR the overnight mins have been very warm as well, like all the areas down your way. Perhaps it's partly a reflection that it's also been pretty humid out here. The past few days we've had dew points in to the 20s (including 24 degrees in Bourke yesterday morning). We've all been joking about our lack of sleep and how we try and how we keep cool overnight. I take an ice pack out of the freezer and have it wrapped in a shirt next to me and have the fan blowing on me. We had another brief downpour last night, so the garden got a nice drink, but it's already over 30 degrees outside and very steamy.

I think the heat also takes a bit of a toll on all the animals and wildlife. I keep bowls of water outside for the birds to come and have a drink and a bath. Only problem is we have bore water, and the water that comes out of the cold water tap is hot! So no cold showers out here at the moment poke.

I'm astounded by that story re: the arsonist Greg.I. Lives put in danger, people's lives destroyed and lots of stress and anxiety all for one person's cheap thrill. So sad frown

Haha Steve777 it has been very humid out in the north west, that must be why you're getting the cloud. At least we're getting a few storms out here! Perhaps one consolation of the cloud is that maybe it's providing a bit of a humidity blanket that is maybe providing some mitigation against bushfires (in such a dry summer we need all the help we can get)! But yes, it's about time all of you down there got some rain and storms!

ASF, always fun to read your reports! I'm from the hunter valley, so I'm a bit biased but I think you should definitely try and make a visit to Newcastle and the Hunter, beautiful part of the world smile

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#1404067 - 26/01/2017 09:22 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 811
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
The possibility of a cracking record on 31st Jan is very high, esp after such a prolonged period of heat.
We saw that with Victoria/ SA in Feb 2009, stunning heat in the 2-3 weeks lead up, and in Feb 2004 in NSW/Qld - where just about every NSW Feb record was set bar Sydney City.
Whether next Tuesday can equal Jan 18 2013 is yet to be seen.

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#1404069 - 26/01/2017 09:52 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
It has been quite a cool morning here but is now starting to warm up a bit. The cloud might keep temperatures down. There was a bit of mist around on the shoulders of the ranges this morning, still very humid here.

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#1404070 - 26/01/2017 09:55 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6289
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
We have the solid grey dome here as well, with a moderate southerly blowing. Not nice out there at all, but I suspect the wind will turn more NEly during the day so it should warm up a bit.

Wow that's a bit harsh that you have to take such measures just to go to sleep GF. I guess it's what you have to put put up with in a hot climate, although your average minimum of 20C indicates that most summer nights would be bearable in other years.

Yes it is about time we got rain and storms. Just to put in perspective how dry it has been Albion Park's (my nearest AWS) summer so far has had the same rainfall as Walgett right down to the digit, both at 60.4mm. AP had 0.2mm more for the month of Dec and then had 0.2mm less than Walgett so far this month, making the difference bang on zero.

Yes, will be very interesting to see if it does beat that day Derek. I don't think it will on the coast because the seabreeze component is looking more evident, but the inland may top that day even though models are not suggesting it at this stage. But in any case, one would think that such prolonged heat should end with a hefty climax, like the events that you posted.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1404071 - 26/01/2017 10:02 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3499
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Certainly January 31 looks very hot. The BOM have forecast 44 for Richmond and Penrith, which is unusual. This season, hot days have been humid and often quite cloudy, so I think (or rather 'feel') that a record is unlikely. It all depends on how the ducks line up - cloud, sea breezes, the timing of the Southerly expected next Tuesday. At the moment it seems to be mid to late afternoon.

One thing is for sure, January 2017 is is very hot month, likely a record but if not, very close. If the forecast is correct, Richmond will finish with a January average maximum of 34.5 - that's outback stuff.

34.5 is 4.5 above the average maximum at the current site (since 1994) and 2.3 above the old record. If we include the old RAAF site (records since 1929 with with a couple of gaps, sadly, the record year 1939 and also the 'cold' Summer of 1952/3), it is 4.7 above average and a big 0.5 above the record. Certainly the hottest since at least 1939.

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#1404074 - 26/01/2017 11:20 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5791
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Cheers WR, Steve and Green Fields! smile

Green Fields yes I plan to visit Newcastle, the Central Coast, Hunter Valley, and NSW North Coast at some stage. Might get a chance to do so for a day trip after I reach Sydney. Hoping my storm prospects are much better by then; as WR pointed out it hasn't been a good storm season.

Dipped to 15.5C here in the Nation's Capital last night, currently around 22C and mostly sunny. Going for a hot top of 31C this arvo. Have a great Australia Day guys! smile

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#1404094 - 26/01/2017 13:27 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3499
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The Central Coast and Newcastle are worth a visit if you can make it. The freeway passes through these regions as you head North but effectively bypasses them, so you need to plan side excursions and extra time, or a day trip. Newcastle is about 160km North of Sydney so that's a longish day trip. The Entrance is about 100km.

-----

Back to my earlier post, for Sydney OH, January 1939 was an average month apart from one exceptional day (45.3 at OH, 47 point someting (?) at Richmond on the 14th - record isn't on line). The 14th at OH was followed by 5 sub 23 days including two sub 20, with the rest of the month being cool to average. Sydney's weather apparently flipped into a different, cooler, probably cloudier pattern after the 14th (like January 2006 after the 1st). So January 1939 at Richmond, apart from a record day and some very hot days early in the month away from the sea breeze, probably wasn't that hot overall and unlikely to have been a record.

------

Warmish and cloudy here but a bit brighter here. The NW cloud is retreating, but the marine layer stands ready to take over.

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#1404123 - 26/01/2017 18:42 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: Kangaroo]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 317
Loc: Frosty, Kemp's Creek
Originally Posted By: Kangaroo
Originally Posted By: WarrenTheSnowMan
Stop making these threads, we don't need to be reminded that we're going to burn in hell!


I'm currently in Furano Japan and coming back to Sydney next Wednesday (1.2.2017). Hoping that next Tuesday is the end of the summer heat nonsense.


I hope you're enjoying your days of extreme cold, we'll have plenty of heat to warm you up when you get back smile

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#1404126 - 26/01/2017 18:51 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5184
Loc: Dural
I know some of you don't like it, but I've really enjoyed these past two days of marine layer cloud just to put a lid on the temps for a bit.
There's been plenty of hot days this Jan (so the heat lovers should have little to complain about smile ) and there is plenty more to come, so just having a few days respite has been a blessing.
I know, I know, there's been plenty of north west cloud bands that have made conditions seem dull, but if anything, it has prevented the heat from reaching extreme levels.

I actually think this summer has been a good compromise for both the heat and cool lovers. After every few days of extreme heat, there's been a couple of days of respite.

The only thing we can all agree on is the pathetic lack of decent storms. It's been pretty bad this summer. So be it.
The other positive is that the heat lovers haven't had reason to complain about constant SE'ers and dreary scud day after day, like we've had in previous summers.
Like I said, it's been a good compromise.
Now, bring on the heat next week. The sooner it's over the better. grin

**Have a great trip ASF!!! I'm sure you will as it sounds like you enjoy your travel and experiencing different weather conditions. Like me.


Edited by Homer (26/01/2017 18:54)

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#1404142 - 26/01/2017 21:58 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Green Fields Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2016
Posts: 67
Loc: Dubbo
The house just stays so hot overnight WR as it takes such a beating during the day, and there's no cooling breeze or anything, so it's low 30s through the night. Not that I'll be complaining too much, overall I've found it very interesting experiencing and adapting to a more extreme climate, as full-on as it can be sometimes! I'm guessing you'd be adapting to the southern highlands climate? Yeah it's amazing the rainfall figures are so similar between Walgett and Albion Park, and when you factor in the amount of rain we had during winter and spring last year it's likely our 12 month total has been higher!

Those are some amazingly high monthly average temps across the Hunter and western Sydney, yes 34.9 is almost akin to the outback, and when considered with humidity, it's probably a bit like southern Texas in summer!

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#1404143 - 26/01/2017 22:02 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Green Fields Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2016
Posts: 67
Loc: Dubbo
Also, even though it's only my 2nd summer out here, the monthly min average of around 20 would indicate there'd normally be at least a few pleasant nights through the month. I'd say there'd probably still be a week of hot days and nights, but then a milder airmass would provide some refreshment. But this summer has been such a blocking pattern.

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