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#1407436 - 12/02/2017 23:10 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6289
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Thanks Steve.
An average minimum of 23C so far is absurd. I'm all for the heat, but man I can't convey how nice it is to finally have a decent cool night, currently 19/14. But this kind of night is average for this area in summer, but more like 19/17 or something.
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#1407439 - 12/02/2017 23:19 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1401
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
it is cooler but the humidity is up.All we need now is some heavy rain.


Edited by Stormy3 (12/02/2017 23:20)
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#1407441 - 12/02/2017 23:53 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6289
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Before this thread gets out of date, I just wanted to say, wow what a prolonged and amazing event. I'm so grateful at how well documented this has been by everyone here; this 65 page thread will make for very entertaining reading for many years to come.

This is the 3rd biggest event thread on the NSW/ACT subforum (beaten by NSW/ACT DTD weather and a rain event in 2012) which is a big feat in itself and a credit to the posters here. The place has been bustling for a few weeks now and

I think I will miss that when the weather goes back to normal. This time last year, if I remember correctly, the forum was very quiet. I think it is back to where it was again many years ago, before I and many others came along.


Edited by Wave Rider (12/02/2017 23:55)
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#1407443 - 13/02/2017 00:21 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: Wave Rider]
Greenyellow dawn Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/02/2017
Posts: 9
Loc: Sutherland NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Here is a photo of the sunset:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BQaKKDHF8oM/



Wow wave rider, absolutely exquisite. smile Any chance please we can get a high res? Would love to use as a Windows 7 wallpaper. smile

Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Before this thread gets out of date, I just wanted to say, wow what a prolonged and amazing event. I'm so grateful at how well documented this has been by everyone here; this 65 page thread will make for very entertaining reading for many years to come.


Don't relax too soon, this is definitely not over, we're in for another bight Friday and Saturday. frown frown

Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
This is the 3rd biggest event thread on the NSW/ACT subforum (beaten by NSW/ACT DTD weather and a rain event in 2012) which is a big feat in itself and a credit to the posters here. The place has been bustling for a few weeks now and

I think I will miss that when the weather goes back to normal. This time last year, if I remember correctly, the forum was very quiet. I think it is back to where it was again many years ago, before I and many others came along.


Yeah definitely, so much activity that it's been difficult to keep up with it all. I think out of the 65 odd pages, I've only been able to read about 20+.

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#1407444 - 13/02/2017 01:13 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3689
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Catching up with goings-on after 24 hours in the air (which is one way to escape the heatwave). The Port Macquarie number is the most impressive of the lot, although the site is further inland than it once was. (It was right on the coast at the pilot station until 1983, then moved to a location a bit further inland before a subsequent move to the airport).

As far the 1896 heatwave, it was certainly a very significant one. Most of the reported temperature readings can't be taken at face value because of a lack of standardised instruments, but some good work has been done to try to correct those to modern-day standards (with the help of comparisons with Queensland, which did have standard instruments by then). This indicates that, averaged over southeast Australia as a whole, January 1896 probably ranks somewhere between 5th and 10th hottest of the last 150 years. Bourke itself looks to have been over-reading by 3-4 degrees, but subtracting that still gives 13 consecutive days over 41, which would equal the modern record.

Not sure about the resilience part though - the number of reported deaths (about 50 in Bourke alone) suggests they didn't cope with the conditions any better than we would with a similar lack of facilities.

Finally, there are a few manual sites to watch when they report at 9am - Mungindi (and maybe Lightning Ridge or Brewarrina) for the possibility of the highest reading of the event, and Cunnamulla and Bollon for possible challenges to the Queensland February record.

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#1407447 - 13/02/2017 05:57 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: Knot]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 811
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
In answer to my own question it would appear that Yamba has the longest unbroken timeline going back to 1910 at the pilot station. And interestingly had a 42.2 on the 1st of Feb 1952. This must have been an impressive burst of heat as Yamba hit only 32 today whilst Grafton to the south west got over 46 and Evans head to the north a little over 43. I guess Yambas delta topography and wind coming off the ocean between Woody Head round to Evans head lessened the heat. In 1952 the wind must have been from the nor west or west.
You

@Wave R Bats carry some nasty bugs. And their waste sets like glue. They have their place in nature. But hell of a nuisance with the racket they make


I actually know Yamba better than most here, and the weather is a bit of a gimmick really, to make out how perfect it is.
The Pilot Station is similar to Nobbys in Newcastle, almost continuous ocean exposure.
I did not know about the Feb record in 1952, but they tried to make out that Feb 2004 was some 7 degrees hotter than the 2nd hottest temp ever recorded in February. (which is the hottest month up there).
In fairness, Evans Head is hotter with the weather station's position, but I would suggest it would have been over 40 in Yamba a few hundred metres back as well.


Edited by DerekHV (13/02/2017 06:07)

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#1407448 - 13/02/2017 06:12 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 811
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Still waiting on official temps for yesterday, only rounded numbers at the moment, although most have been adjusted for peaks that occurred after 3pm.

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#1407451 - 13/02/2017 06:54 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3689
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
The pre-1957 Yamba daily data were only digitised fairly recently so the 1952 values wouldn't have been generally known about in 2004.

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#1407453 - 13/02/2017 06:59 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1553
Loc: Orange, NSW
Little bit of a contrast this morning - 5.4c and still dropping.

No frost grin
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#1407454 - 13/02/2017 07:14 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3499
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's 15 to 18 across Sydney, cooler in some of the usual cold hollows. OH is on 17.8, it's minimum so far, the first time below 20 since January 20 (so 23 successive 20+ minima) and the "coldest" since December 19.

Bright and sunny with light Westerlies here, looks like a nice day ahead.

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#1407455 - 13/02/2017 07:44 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: Greenyellow dawn]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6289
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
Originally Posted By: Greenyellow dawn
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Here is a photo of the sunset:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BQaKKDHF8oM/



Wow wave rider, absolutely exquisite. smile Any chance please we can get a high res? Would love to use as a Windows 7 wallpaper. smile


Thanks. Oh instagram must lower the quality. It looks high quality on my small phone screen but obviously not on a computer. Unfortunately I don't have the time to make it high res, would involve me going into photoshop, making it higher quality and then going through the issue of sharing onto photo sharing websites on my ex-school laptop because they are blocked and/or the internet browser isn't updated enough. frown

Wow a chilly 11.7C here, and I can confirm that it's cold. Coldest morning since 25th November last year. Yes Steve it's guaranteed to be a stunning day.


Edited by Wave Rider (13/02/2017 07:49)
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#1407458 - 13/02/2017 09:02 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
J Pabo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2012
Posts: 310
Originally Posted By: Knot
There are a few under control fires in the region of Singleton.


Yes, don't I know that! shocked

One started up yesterday when a power line dropped onto another power line on the opposite side of the road from our house. Causes a spark of molten wire to fall in the paddock and started a grass fire.

Luckily I was already outside moving hoses about in case of a bushfire. The problem was I was moving them to the western side of the property, when the fire started out on the SE corner of our property. So I had to move some hoses around to get to the fire across the road. The neighbour rode down form his dairy and noticed the hose at the front (as I was starting the pump up at the dam) and turned the tap on and started to fight the fire. I had to get a couple more hoses to extend our reach.

By the time the RFS showed up (5 mins after it started), we had most of the fire out by this stage. They sent out 5 trucks and 2 4WD's. A bit overkill, but having the equipment there was better then being undermanned and equipped. They just did some mopping up, then went on their way.

They reckoned if we didn't put it before they got there, it would have been out of control within 5 mins easy, due to the amount of fuel source within that paddock. and also being in a high wind area due to the openness of the area we live in.

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#1407462 - 13/02/2017 09:13 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
J Pabo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2012
Posts: 310
Here the end result of the grassfire.




Edited by J Pabo (13/02/2017 09:14)

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#1407464 - 13/02/2017 09:38 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Close shave Pabo. It was oustanding yesterday to see so many guys and gals kitted up and ready at a moments notice to deal with fires. We can be proud of them all.

@Blair Do you know the reason for the 36 year 1921 - 1956 missing gap in the Port Macquarie Hill street temp stats? Such a shame that 1952 isnt there
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#1407465 - 13/02/2017 09:46 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: J Pabo]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3499
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: J Pabo
They reckoned if we didn't put it before they got there, it would have been out of control within 5 mins easy, due to the amount of fuel source within that paddock. and also being in a high wind area due to the openness of the area we live in.


Looks like a case of saved by quick thinking.

-------

I have worked out some averages for the Sydney area for this event (January 27 - February 12). The following table shows maxima and minima over the period, compared to long term averages (mean of Jan plus Feb):

Code:
Sydney OH     22.8 - 31.0    18.8 - 25.9    19.7 - 26.5 (1981-2010)  
Olympic Park  22.3 - 33.7    19.3 - 28.2 (since 1996 old & new site)
Penrith       22.0 - 35.5    18.5 - 30.0 (since 1995)


So, mimima tracking 3 to 3.5 above average, maxima over 5 above average, over a 17 day period. If we were to extend it further back, the result would't be that different. The last extended 'cool' spell was the time of the Sydney Test early in January.

There are no 17 day records, but if there were, this one probably beats them.

EDIT: J Pabo, just looked at your photo. that was a pretty big fire, burnt out a whole paddock by the looks of it. Hope the fires are all mopped up soon.




Edited by Steve777 (13/02/2017 09:49)

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#1407467 - 13/02/2017 10:06 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3499
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I checked Sydney Olympic Park for the longer 36 day period January 8 - February 12, since the end of the last cooler spell of more than a couple of days. The average for this period was 21.6 - 32.7 (+2.3 to +4.5, or +3.4 for daily mean). That is an extended hot spell.

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#1407469 - 13/02/2017 10:25 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Here is an excerpt from Weatherzone News 'On Saturday, New South Wales had its hottest day on record and then on Sunday the same state saw its worst fire weather on record.'

What does the author mean 'hottest day on record? Does he mean hottest day by averaging all highest temps of all recording stations? I think this is what must be meant as there were no hottest day in NSW for all time highs or for a February NSW highest on record temp set at any station. Some stations did set a record high for that locale but none beat Menindee and Bourke all time of 49.7 in1939 and 1904 reslectively and none beat Ivanhoe's Feb max of 48.5 in 2004.

Secondly I reject totally the assertion that yesterday was the 'worst fire weather' on record. What does the writer even mean by this ludicrous statement

I


Edited by Knot (13/02/2017 10:32)
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#1407470 - 13/02/2017 10:33 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: Knot]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Here is an excerpt from Weatherzone News 'On Saturday, New South Wales had its hottest day on record and then on Sunday the same state saw its worst fire weather on record.'

What does the author mean 'hottest day on record? Does he mean hottest day by averaging all highest temps of all recording stations? I think this is what is meant surely as there were no hottest day in NSW for all time highs or for a February high set at any station. Some stations did set a record high for that locale but none beat Menindee and Bourke all time of 1939 and 1904 and none beat Ivanhoe 48.5 of 2004.

Secondly I reject totally the assertion that yesterday was the 'worst fire weather' on record. What does the writer even mean by this ludicrous statement


If you take things in the context of a warming climate these statements make more sense. The event on the weekend and previous weeks seems pretty unprecedented for NSW in terms of extent and duration, certainly in my lifetime. I haven't witnessed fire weather like yesterday before. It is pretty much the sort of thing predicted by global warming. If you accept that the climate is getting significantly warmer and the fact western civilisation has only been here for 230 years, in terms of a news article I don't find those statements objectionable.

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#1407472 - 13/02/2017 10:51 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3499
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It would be good if one of the meteorologists who visit this site would comment on how state wide averages are calculalted. I expect that for temerature it would be some sort of weighted average of maximum temperatures at all reporting weather stations, with weighting by geographical area and maybe estimates for wide areas without stations. Feb 11 NSW Average Max

On Saturday, the whole state with the exception of a coastal strip several kilometers wide, highlands above about 900 metres and the coast South of about Kiama passed 40 degrees and practically everywhere else near sea level away from the coastal strip passed 43.


I find the quoted average of 44 very credible.

As for fire danger, that would be based on an index of temperature, wind, humidity, recent rainfall and so forth. Those for past bad fire events (e.g. 1939) could be estimated. Many were saved yesterday by good planning and preparedness. In the past (e.g. 1939), the organisational infrustructure and technology was not available or much less developed.

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#1407473 - 13/02/2017 10:55 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
@ Greg
I want to find the statements 'factual'. I want clarification of what the author of the article meant. If he meant an averaged max high across all reporting stations in NSW he may be correct. If he meant a a max high record for NSW as far as the hottest place on the map for either Saturday or Sunday he is wrong. That is clear. As for the 'worst fire weather' on record. Who told him that. What was his source for the comment?. What starts fires and their effects combination of many factors. Not just heat. We are talking rainfall or lack of. Fuel loads. Topography. Negligence. Deliberate arson. Building practices. Weather phenomena. Population intrusion. etc etc.
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