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#1407474 - 13/02/2017 11:06 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Knot, it's just a news article, weatherzone is at heart a media operation. Most of the media don't do that sort of thing anymore, and not many people want to read it. For me the stats don't matter much because we are moving into new territory. The past climate is another country.
Also I don't know who you think is going to collate all this data, you are talking a very underfunded area of government, often with low morale due to all the reorganisations that happen.

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#1407475 - 13/02/2017 11:09 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
I suppose establishing the averaged max high for all nsw locales that have data for January and February 1939 from Bom Climate data would be a good place to start. 1939 is probably the yard stick that events of this kind can be compared to. Start crunching those numbers Steve he he


Edited by Knot (13/02/2017 11:11)
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#1407476 - 13/02/2017 11:48 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 811
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Munginidi in the Northwest has come in as top of the state at 48.0C, must have been a late peak, and defeated Walgett at 47.9C.
Regardless, Ivanhoe's 48.5C from Feb 2004 has not been broken.

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#1407477 - 13/02/2017 11:51 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9740
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
It was a tad warm - today is much nicer grin

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#1407479 - 13/02/2017 12:05 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: Knot]
Greenyellow dawn Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 08/02/2017
Posts: 9
Loc: Sutherland NSW



Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: Greenyellow dawn
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Here is a photo of the sunset:

https://www.instagram.com/p/BQaKKDHF8oM/



Wow wave rider, absolutely exquisite. smile Any chance please we can get a high res? Would love to use as a Windows 7 wallpaper. smile


Thanks. Oh instagram must lower the quality. It looks high quality on my small phone screen but obviously not on a computer. Unfortunately I don't have the time to make it high res, would involve me going into photoshop, making it higher quality and then going through the issue of sharing onto photo sharing websites on my ex-school laptop because they are blocked and/or the internet browser isn't updated enough. frown


No dramas, thanks for getting back about it anyway, much appreciated.

Originally Posted By: Knot
Here is an excerpt from Weatherzone News 'On Saturday, New South Wales had its hottest day on record and then on Sunday the same state saw its worst fire weather on record.'

What does the author mean 'hottest day on record? Does he mean hottest day by averaging all highest temps of all recording stations? I think this is what must be meant as there were no hottest day in NSW for all time highs or for a February NSW highest on record temp set at any station. Some stations did set a record high for that locale but none beat Menindee and Bourke all time of 49.7 in1939 and 1904 reslectively and none beat Ivanhoe's Feb max of 48.5 in 2004.

Secondly I reject totally the assertion that yesterday was the 'worst fire weather' on record. What does the writer even mean by this ludicrous statement

I


Problem with these writers is they want to sensationalise, thus convoluting the difference between what is the hottest and the most dangerous conditions.

Within my life time, I can tell you that we had just missed the most horrific conditions by a nails bite back in January 2002.

In Leura were we lived, we had already a very dry december, from memory less then 10 mils of rain for the entire month. There was already a small bushfire around wallacia. My parents saw it at the end of November 2001 on there way back from Wollongong to Leura when using the Northern Road. As December was dry, the fire kept increasing in size.

Just before christmas, new fires started around Lapstone and Glenbrook. One of my brothers remarked on entire plantations aglow with flames on the edge of the great western highway on his way up on christmas eve, which fell on a monday night. By this time, the Wallacia fire had expanded and now burned it's way through the Jamison valley toward the upper townships of Bullaburra, Wentworth Falls, and Leura.

By Wednesday 2nd January 2002, major parts of the Jamison valley were burned out, and the southern edges of Wentworth Falls were now only kilometers away from a firefront from the valley. Saturday 5th January 2002 was the crunch. 9:30 pm that night, my father came back from work extremely worried. Both sides of the great western highway at wentworth falls were aglow. Winds started picking up that night around 11:00. With the smell of thick smoke in the air, and 13 years of living in Leura, I thought our numbers were up, I thought we were going to loose everything we had with our house facing real possible danger. The glow from the Jamison Valley fire gave the trees across the road a beautiful gentle, but disturbing reddish glow from the light of the flames reflecting off the low cloud.

Then 11:30, an absolute miracle happened, I heard soft raindrops on the roof. With in 15 minutes, it started to pour cats and dogs, and it rained ROCK SOLID for a good EIGHT hours. Man, I could never ever in a million years tell you how relieved I felt. 8:30 the next morning, the rain had stopped, the smoke and fires were all put out.

The weather cleared up around 11:00 am, and then 11:30 there was the most violent of winds; gusts came and went from the SW of about 80 to 100Kph.

I'll tell you now, if that rain didn't come; that Jamison Valley fire would of raced up the cliffs to Leura, and our street would of been directly in the line of fire

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#1407480 - 13/02/2017 12:05 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
In order to see how difficult it is to compare this events state wide average max temp with something historically comparable, (1939 for example) one has only to notice the lack of digitalised data for sites on Boms latest obs page. From Terry Hills in Sydney along the coastal strip to the Qld border there is only one site that has data for 1939. a distance of 800km. So there is nothing in the digitalised record to compare this event to for the purpose of establishing a statewide av max. Yamba is not representative of 800km of nsw coastline as yesterdays 32 indicates. And nor would its 1939 stats. I plan on looking at every Bom Climate data online site and I think the case will be the same. No data to compare this event to for huge areas with different micro climates.

Wow at 48. Impressive
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#1407481 - 13/02/2017 12:14 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
I do think the BOM and RFS should be congratulated for their efforts over the weekend. We had good, early, accurate forecasts of the conditions, we were given good warning, and in the end we avoided the possible catastrophe. The media actually helped by disseminating the information, even though not all their reports were strictly accurate. In the past weather like that would have seen much worse results, but these days we are obviously much better warned and prepared for the conditions.
We all get a bit of schadenfreude from natural disasters, (edit sorry submitted too early) but when nothing happens it is better.


Edited by greg.l (13/02/2017 12:20)

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#1407484 - 13/02/2017 12:26 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: Knot]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 811
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
In order to see how difficult it is to compare this events state wide average max temp with something historically comparable, (1939 for example) one has only to notice the lack of digitalised data for sites on Boms latest obs page. From Terry Hills in Sydney along the coastal strip to the Qld border there is only one site that has data for 1939. a distance of 800km. So there is nothing in the digitalised record to compare this event to for the purpose of establishing a statewide av max. Yamba is not representative of 800km of nsw coastline as yesterdays 32 indicates. And nor would its 1939 stats. I plan on looking at every Bom Climate data online site and I think the case will be the same. No data to compare this event to for huge areas with different micro climates.

Wow at 48. Impressive


Agree about Yamba, worked that out years ago, and have spent a bit of time there through family.
Same with Cape Byron - 29C yesterday, while Ballina was 37C.
These are pure oceanic climates and not representative of what goes on.

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#1407490 - 13/02/2017 12:58 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9740
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I have a feeling that this weekend may be cooler than people expect - especially in elevated inland areas (Snowies- Tablelands etc).

Sunday could be only 14 or 15 or so out here if some models are to be believed.

Hopefully a book end to the topic in which I am writing grin

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#1407547 - 13/02/2017 18:07 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Even though this event has come and gone I will post here as a continuation of something posted earlier.

Looking into the coastal area of NSW on the Bom climate data online site from Sydney to Gabo Island (officially victoria) there are only 4 sites that have data for the year 1939. They are Obs Hill and Richmond in Sydney, Moruya and Gabo Island. Around 600km. So for the NSW coast at a driving distance of around 1400km there are 5 sites with 1939 data. Why am I labouring the point on this. Well I am just curious how a claim is made that Saturday the 11th just gone was NSW hottest day on record (averaged I assume) and that claim must be made on comparisons with historical data. 1939 is a good candidate year for a comparison as the hottest max temp on record in NSW occured in Jan of that year. And also the hottest day on record for Sydney. Also in Jan at Richmond.

I really want to know what sites were compared. What years. What months. If there is simply no data of any length for most of the NSW coastline, was this factored in when the numbers were crunched for the 11th to arrive at a claim covering the whole state.


Edited by Knot (13/02/2017 18:13)
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#1407600 - 13/02/2017 21:45 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3689
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Picking up on a few bits and pieces here.

The gridded analyses that are used for calculating state and national averages are done first by calculating anomalies (degrees above/below the long-term average) at individual stations, then interpolating those anomalies onto a grid, then splicing those anomalies onto long-term monthly averages for that gridpoint calculated using all available data. This process provides some level of robustness against changes in the network. However, the sparser daily network pre-1957 would still have some effects - mostly that without any not-quite-coastal sites to constrain the analysis, the anomalies from the really coastal sites (like Yamba and Moruya Heads) get projected too far inland, leading to analysed values which are too high on days when the heat makes it all the way out to the coast (and hence there are very large anomalies at the coastal sites), and too low when it doesn't. (This effect shows up more clearly on the Nullarbor). Still, the coastal strip's area is pretty small as a proportion of NSW so the impact on statewide averages is modest.

The last figures I saw had Saturday as easily the hottest area-averaged February day for NSW, but falling just short of January 1939 for the hottest day in any month. This may have changed with new data coming in.

Not sure why the 1921-56 Port Macquarie data aren't showing up on the web, but they're certainly part of the data sets that I use. I'm out of the office at the moment so only have the adjusted (homogenised) data to hand which show 39.0 on 1 February 1952 - these are adjusted to be 'equivalent' to the airport so the actual value would have been lower than that.

It's actually surprisingly hard to find good long-term climate records in coastal NSW - this shows up very well when looking at rainfall where there are lots of great 100+ year records in the inland cropping areas but few on the coasts. I think part of this is that inland agriculture is more drought-sensitive so climate information was valued more highly by the community at an early stage. A lot of the observing network on the coastal plains was based on sites at small-town post offices, which depended a lot on the enthusiasm (or lack thereof) of the staff of the time in doing observations - you'll often find that an excellent decade is followed by a very poor one as staff move on. They also tended to be pretty lousy sites and moved around a lot (Kempsey and Taree score prominently on both fronts).

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#1407609 - 13/02/2017 22:23 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
@Blair. Thankyou for your response. The article that got me going on this subject didnt mention February although the author may have had it in mind. All this confusion could be avoided if it had been stated by the author that the record was for February based on a state wide 'area averaged' calculation and not, as you point out, an any month record, with the record still January 1939.
Interesting point you make about the lack of long standing coastal records apart from Sydney of course and the possible reason. Looking at all the stations on the NSW latest obs page and then cross referencing with the Climate data online page you do see more data going further back than ww2 west of the Divide and likely reflecting more consciousness of the weather for agricultural reasons All fascinating.


Edited by Knot (13/02/2017 22:31)
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#1407614 - 13/02/2017 23:17 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Thunderstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/12/2012
Posts: 121
Loc: sw suburbs of Adelaide
Moree " cooler" Max.of 36C today , that is now 49days in row Max.has reached 35C & 36C Forecast tomorrow.
Dec.26th 2016 was the last time Max. did not reach 35C. !!!!

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#1407618 - 14/02/2017 02:56 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3689
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Not sure if it's already been mentioned on this thread, but the record run of consecutive 35+ days at any NSW site is 50 (at Bourke in 2012-13).

If it got there yesterday (we'll know at 9am - given readings at other sites in the region it will be touch and go), Mungindi will have equalled this record. Moree would equal it today with a 35+. Mungindi had reached 35 on every day since 26 December, and Moree and Walgett since the 27th, but Walgett's run looks to have ended yesterday.

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#1407619 - 14/02/2017 06:01 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: Blair Trewin]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 811
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Mungindi looks like another week of 35+ temps as well, so the record could be extended further.
On Sunday, Singleton got to 47.0C, just 0.2C lower than Saturday.
2 days in a row of 47+ is just astonishing, not even that common in outback towns like Bourke - although it also technically had 2 47C days in a row too as Sunday was 46.6, after 47.1 on Sat.

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#1407624 - 14/02/2017 07:20 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Sunday was an amazing day, I have never experience anything like it. The wind was very strong and very hot, lots of branches blown down and equipment blown over etc. It was only possible to spend short periods of time outside, it really felt like being in an oven, much worse than saturday though the temp was a bit lower here. I'm fairly certain it was only due to the forecasting and communication that disaster was averted, in the old days it would have been much worse due to people being unprepared.

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#1407635 - 14/02/2017 09:39 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
For anyone interested here is a list of places from the BOM climate data online website that have digitalised weather data at least back to 1939. Some of the stations that supplied the data are no longer open. The list is ordered based on the regional divisions of NSW used on the BOM latest observations page.

(Northern Rivers) 1
Yamba

(Mid North Coast) None


(Hunter) None

(Northern Tablelands)1
Inverell


(Sydney Metropolitan) 2
Observatory Hill
Richmond

(Illawarra) None


(South Coast) 1
Moruya Heads

(Central Tablelands) 1
Bathurst

(Southern Tablelands) None

(Snowy Mountains) None


(Northwest slopes and Plains) 4

Gunnedah
Moree
Walgett
Collarenabri

(Central West Slopes and Plains) 6

Gilgandra
Dubbo
Forbes
Coonamble
Trangie
Nyngan

(Southwest Slopes) None

(Riverina) 5
Deniliquin
Wagga
Euston
Balranald
Mt Hope

(Lower Western) 3
Broken Hill
Menindee
Lake Victoria

(Upper Western) 4
Bourke
Cobar
Tibooburra
Brewarrina

A total of 28 places with pre ww2 data. The Central West a plains having the most representation. The whole of the coast except for Yamba and Moruya Heads have nothing. Obs Hill could be classed as coastal to some extent. But Richmond is not.
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#1407636 - 14/02/2017 09:50 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
P.s I left off Wentworth in the Upper
Western region so total is 29


Edited by Knot (14/02/2017 09:50)
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#1407637 - 14/02/2017 10:05 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
'Hottest all-time maximum temperature for Forbes 46.5C, Richmond 47.0, Condobolin 46.7C, West Wyalong 45.5, Trangie 47.0, Tenterfield 38.9C, Maitland 45.2C, Tocal 47.0C ......'

From Weatherzone again. Richmond should not be in the list. If the author got this wrong, what else is wrong. Its peaving me. Weatherzone news is replete with articles about science finding evidence for you know what yet many articles are riddled with un scientific errors or failures to provide context. If the author meant the Richmond temp only was an all time high for the current aws and not for the old, than why not bloody say so. Its really dumbing down things.
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#1407639 - 14/02/2017 10:10 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1859
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W


P.s Forbes and Trangie were not all time highs either. sheesh






Edited by Knot (14/02/2017 10:12)
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