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#1407640 - 14/02/2017 10:24 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1815
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Bathurst temp was not all time high either. And the others don't have digitalised long records. People in Forbes etc could be forgiven for thinking history was made when this is simply not the case.
The people writing these articles should post them in WZ forum first so forum members can suggest editing before readers who believe Weatherzone news is authoratative read it

Let it go Knotty. Let it go he he


Edited by Knot (14/02/2017 10:31)
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#1407643 - 14/02/2017 10:43 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3344
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Yes, there's not much digitised data before about the 1950s or even later. I checked a couple of the stations. Newcastle Nobbys and Richmond have monthly average temps going back a long way, but not daily readings (or at least not available on line on the BOM site).

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#1407648 - 14/02/2017 11:08 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Online   content
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1815
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
We all know what Samuel Clemens thought about stats "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
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#1407651 - 14/02/2017 11:15 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 652
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
It is easy to split hairs on statistics. Richmonds 47.0C was the highest on record for site 067105 (beating the 46.4C set in January 2013), but that site has only been operating since 1993. The old RAAF site (067033) operated from 1928 to 1994. It recorded 47.8C in January 1939, but never did a February observation exceed 43.7C. Considering both sites, the 47.0C last Saturday was not the hottest overall, but it was a new record for February, beating the one set the day before of 44.6C, which in turn beat the old site record of 43.7 in February 1977.

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#1407652 - 14/02/2017 11:24 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Online   content
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1815
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Accuracy about a claim is important in my view. Clarification more so. Do we here in the forums have to correct and clarify stuff ? I think so. Be better if the authors did it themselves though
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#1407670 - 14/02/2017 13:11 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: DerekHV]
J Pabo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2012
Posts: 284
Originally Posted By: DerekHV
Mungindi looks like another week of 35+ temps as well, so the record could be extended further.
On Sunday, Singleton got to 47.0C, just 0.2C lower than Saturday.
2 days in a row of 47+ is just astonishing, not even that common in outback towns like Bourke - although it also technically had 2 47C days in a row too as Sunday was 46.6, after 47.1 on Sat.


I dare say it would have gotten hotter if we didn't have the smoke cover from the fire out west closing in on Cassilis . Even the fire crews that showed up at our spot fire caused from a power line said it would have gotten at least a degree or two hotter if we didn't have that smoke. The heat from the wind on Sunday was like if you have standing in front of a open fan forced oven.

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#1407699 - 14/02/2017 17:14 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Wild Wassa Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2012
Posts: 372
Loc: NW ACT
The author Robert Macklin's latest work about Hamilton Hume, undoubtedly our greatest explorer, has some interesting passages about heat.

In 1827 Hume and Charles Sturt accompanied by a couple of soldiers and a few convicts went looking for the inland sea. Macklin writes that Sturt kept a meticulously accurate record of their journey. Mount Harris, is beside the Macquarie River at the southern edge of the Macquarie Marshes. Mt Harris is about 50ks NE of Nyngan in NSW. The explorer/surveyor John Oxley named Mt Harris in 1818.

'Once beyond Mount Harris, they expected to find 'interminable marshes' described by Oxley but instead discovered mudflats caked dry. The company's morale was quickly sapped by an almost unbearable heat wave that sent temperatures above 43Celsius for days on end, and on occasion soaring to 53 in the shade. On one hellish day, it reached an almost unbelievable 65 in the sun.'

At this stage two of the party had painful eye infections and another two went down with dysentery.

I've had the air-con on while I've been reading. Perhaps I should have been outside in the heat, to have a greater appreciation for what the expedition endured ... or perhaps not.

Warren.


Edited by Wild Wassa (14/02/2017 17:24)
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#1407701 - 14/02/2017 17:45 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1246
Loc: toowoomba

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#1407703 - 14/02/2017 18:07 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Online   content
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1815
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
How many heatwaves must have come and gone in this vast land. Blasts of heat witnessed only by kangaroo and emu. By kookaburra and goanna. In 90 million years Sydney will be at Brisbane's latitude. if nothing got in the way of an advancing continent. Will humans be around to experience that. I dont know. But one thing I do know is that there is nothing we can do to prevent the climate changing due to the geological processes measured in millions of years. Kind of puts our current temperature obsessions in perspective.


Edited by Knot (14/02/2017 18:09)
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#1407711 - 14/02/2017 19:10 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1815
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
A few posts back I put put Wentworth in wrong regional division. Wentworth should be in Riverina not Upper Western.



Edited by Knot (14/02/2017 19:13)
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#1407741 - 14/02/2017 22:33 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3344
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Wentworth is in the far SW of the state, close to the confluence of the Murray and Darling rivers. A short drive out of town. It's in the The Lower Western, not far from Mildura in Victoria.

{begin rant}
Jo Nova has some interesting things to say but I take it with a grain of salt. She is a scientist, a molecular bioligist, but had no particular qualifications on weather or climate.

And in geologic time, the climate and everything else changes. The Australian continent is moving North at about 5cm per annum. Positively racing in geologic terms. That's 1 km in 20,000 years, 500 km in 10 million. One day, Australia will be literally part of Asia. Meanwhile, the Sun continues on its course of stellar evolution, gradually getting hotter. In due course (500 - 1,000 million yesrs) Earth will beome uninhabitable. Human decendants will need to decamp.

Future humans and their decendants will have to cope with massive changes. That goes without saying.

Meanwhile, we have a serious problem of our own making, affecting especially today's young and the next couple of generations. One way or another this will be resolved by about 2200. Stein's law - anything that can't continue won't. We can try to fix it or just let 'er rip. If we choose the latter course, it won't be pretty.

{end rant}


Edited by Steve777 (14/02/2017 22:36)
Edit Reason: Second para

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#1407752 - 15/02/2017 06:44 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Online   content
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1815
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
@Steve Looks like we both wrong about pace of continental movement according to this article. Australia Drift

The drift is 7cm a year north with a little clockwise motion thrown in. Sydney might end up at the bottom. Anyway, regardless of the drift pace and where the continent is headed, the fact remains that big changes will happen. And everyone and everything will adapt. Its the river of life that keeps flowing. New directions. Hiccups in temperature wont change that. Always winners and losers. Just the way it is
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#1407757 - 15/02/2017 07:48 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Online   content
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1815
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Interesting vid that depicts what continental landmasses looked ike 240 million years ago and will probably look like 250 million years hence.


250 million years


Edited by Knot (15/02/2017 07:55)
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#1407775 - 15/02/2017 09:36 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Online   content
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1815
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
'All-time records were set over the weekend in several locations.
Town Temperature Day
Williamtown 45.5C Saturday
Dubbo 46.1C Saturday
West Wyalong 46.3C Saturday
Bathurst 41.5C Saturday
Scone 46.5C Sunday
Port Macquarie 46.5C Sunday
Moree 47.3C Sunday
Gunnedah 45.6C Sunday'

From weatherzone news today. Once again the author fails to mention that these records only apply to current stations. Ignoring the fact that some are not all time record highs when compared to a station with a longer pedigree. I believe this is agenda driven wilful ignorance and I am going to continue to point out these errors. Probably till I am blue in the face.
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#1407780 - 15/02/2017 10:15 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
I have to admit I am scared of bushfires, it is one natural disaster that really terrifies me. A bushfire in sunday's conditions is like a tsunami or avalanch, once they start they are unstoppable. It is just mylifestyle choice that I am exposed to the possibility of bushfires, I like to live in the forest. Everything I have built over the years can be lost in an instant.
I think the response to last weekends conditions was fully appropriate and should be a model for future events. the press coverage might have seemed a bit overblown but it achieved its aim of making everyone aware of the dangers. I think in future they could have an even stronger response, with travel bans for non-local traffic, and farm machinery bans. these sort of events don't happen very often (victoria 2009, central tblands 2013, central west 2017)and the worst of the conditions don't last all that long, I think the emergency services could be given more powers. These sort of events will be more common in future and we need a proper response, last weekend shows we are going in the right direction. The fire that did start moved very quickly and caused a lot of damage, luckily there wasn't the population density or the fuel loads of places further east, it could have been a lot worse.


Edited by greg.l (15/02/2017 10:16)

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#1407823 - 15/02/2017 16:28 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9575
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
At least BOM now coming on board more with ACCESS & GFS about cooler temps and more precip on the weekend, especially Sunday. smile

A bit warm before then but cooling down again after Saturday smile At least it might now be more of a pattern of a few days warmer then a few days cooler as southerly changes now have a little more impact.

The only downer is that stronger changes that may come along may well draw some solid hot air before it. I don't mind as much though if we actually get the cooler change too. smile

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#1407881 - 16/02/2017 00:22 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: Knot]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3676
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Originally Posted By: Knot
'All-time records were set over the weekend in several locations.
Town Temperature Day
Williamtown 45.5C Saturday
Dubbo 46.1C Saturday
West Wyalong 46.3C Saturday
Bathurst 41.5C Saturday
Scone 46.5C Sunday
Port Macquarie 46.5C Sunday
Moree 47.3C Sunday
Gunnedah 45.6C Sunday'

From weatherzone news today. Once again the author fails to mention that these records only apply to current stations. Ignoring the fact that some are not all time record highs when compared to a station with a longer pedigree. I believe this is agenda driven wilful ignorance and I am going to continue to point out these errors. Probably till I am blue in the face.


As I understand it, their systems are not set up to merge sites - nothing agenda-driven about it (as you'll find out during cold spells in winter).

Of the sites you list the only one I'd take issue with is Gunnedah - the others either have no higher observations at earlier sites, or those that exist are pre-1910 ones with non-standard instruments. Given that the Bathurst Ag site goes back to 1908, I don't think it's too unreasonable to use it on its own without merging with the "Gaol" site (which was actually at the PO if you go that far back; the prison was where it ended up before its 1983 closure).

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#1407893 - 16/02/2017 08:55 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Knot Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1815
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
@Blair
fair enough. I would be happy if the authors at least added the phrase 'this location does not have lengthy temperature data' when highlighting a new temperature record. This would alert the reader to the possibility that the asserted record may not be a record at all, and that a higher or lower record may exist from an older data collection . This would have the positive effect of stoking the mind to enquire. And isn't this what basic science is meant to be about. Observation. Enquiry. Hypothesis. Theory.


Edited by Knot (16/02/2017 09:02)
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#1407912 - 16/02/2017 12:00 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
greg.l Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/09/2016
Posts: 335
Loc: north of bathurst NSW
Discussing temperature records isn't really science, more in the realm of entertainment and human interest. these are a few moments in time recorded at widely scattered stations, old records with observations that may or may not be accurate.We all know haw temperature can vary a few degrees over a few minutes due to breezes or cloud.
We all like to discuss new records, it brings the weather home to us. You seem to find it particularly rewarding, that's fair enough. Just don't call it science.

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#1407915 - 16/02/2017 12:33 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 719
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Just noted that Richmond's temp on Saturday 10th had been upgraded from 46.8C to 47.0C, meaning that it just pipped Penrith by 0.1C, rather than the reverse.
Still not the hottest temp ever recorded in the Sydney Basin as previously noted, which is still 47.8C at Richmond RAAF on Jan 14, 1939.

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