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#1403863 - 24/01/2017 15:37 NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017)
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
As others have alluded to in the BW thread, another large and severe heatwave looks to descend upon NSW after the public holiday on the 26th. Temps at 850 hPa look elevated right across the country so there will be little relief until well into the new month. The coast will get a few shortwave southerly pulses; these will mainly increase humidity without providing real cooling, though.

The title of the thread, by the way, is a reference to the excellent album by Stan Ridgway, of Wall of Voodoo fame. Look it up, kids.


Edited by Seabreeze (06/02/2017 17:50)
Edit Reason: end date

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#1403876 - 24/01/2017 16:31 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 203
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Stop making these threads, we don't need to be reminded that we're going to burn in hell!

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#1403877 - 24/01/2017 16:34 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 636
Loc: Orange, NSW
Yeah, the eternity bit in the title worries me too WtSM. wink

Would prefer an end date HB.


Edited by orangeroughy (24/01/2017 16:35)
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1403878 - 24/01/2017 16:39 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
How about the 1st of April?

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#1403881 - 24/01/2017 16:52 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 636
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: HumphreyBear
How about the 1st of April?



laugh I was thinking of the equinox. smirk
_________________________
NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1403882 - 24/01/2017 16:56 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2197
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
45c should be a doddle out here in Penrith should those 850hPa temps eventuate. BOM already going with 43c next Tuesday.

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#1403883 - 24/01/2017 17:00 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: davidg]
Homer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 4903
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: davidg
45c should be a doddle out here in Penrith should those 850hPa temps eventuate. BOM already going with 43c next Tuesday.


Oh great!! crazy

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#1403888 - 24/01/2017 17:08 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2197
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
My aircon broke down today and my wife is due to have our second next week. Joy. Might have to camp out at Mum and Dad's for a few days!

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#1403890 - 24/01/2017 17:14 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
HumphreyBear Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2008
Posts: 4167
Loc: Southern Sydney
I wonder what the obstetrics department at Royal Hobart Hospital is like, davidg? Seriously, that's no good and you're best to find somewhere cool at any cost.

00z looks a little better for some sort of change on the 1st of Feb; hopefully some troughing can get organised after that in response to the monsoon trough hitting the Top End now. That's the only way to break this run of amazing (and shocking) heat.

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#1403891 - 24/01/2017 17:14 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8279
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Can we extend it to mid August, that'd be great.

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#1403893 - 24/01/2017 17:18 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
WarrenTheSnowMan Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/04/2016
Posts: 203
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Working at Emu Plains and not liking the forecasts for next week. Really hoping for a major downgrade.

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#1403919 - 24/01/2017 19:41 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3097
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
"The Big Heat" is also a classic noir film from 1953 starring Glenn Ford about a police officer who goes after the big crime boss responsible for his wife's murder.

--------

Back to the weather: NAEFS has a warm signature for our part of the world for early February: NAEFS (link will update).

Sydney and other stations are tracking for their hottest January on record. For Sydney, if this comes off (the forecast says it will), this will have been 'achieved' in spite of the fact that it hasn't been a particularly sunny month. Most hot days (like today) and many other days have been cloudy and humid. Further, again if the forecast is correct, it will be 'achieved' without any really exceptionally hot days (at OH that is). The record year of 1896 included two 40+ days, including the then record of 42.5. Who know how hot Penrith or other centres further inland were back then.

So the critical factor has been the constancy of the heat and the absence of cool weather. This will have been exacerbated inland where there were exceptionally hot days. Again, if you look back at 1896, it included four 'cold' days (max < 23), including a chilly 20.2.

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#1403920 - 24/01/2017 19:57 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5309
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Yes it has just been so warm for such a long period of time, and that's what makes it different to almost every other summer we have had.
The lack of proper maritime weather from the E or NE is probably a cause, and it has resulted it a huge rainfall deficiency as well. The only maritime weather we've had has been in the form of shallow southerly changes or dry Southern Ocean southerlies. Also the NE seabreeze but that doesn't really count IMO, as it doesn't drive our weather and is only a local wind.

Originally Posted By: Warren
Working at Emu Plains and not liking the forecasts for next week. Really hoping for a major downgrade.


Emu Plains would absolutely cook in summer, possibly even more so than Penrith, but probably very similar much of the time.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 14

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th

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#1403925 - 24/01/2017 20:11 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: Steve777]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1818
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Originally Posted By: Steve777
For Sydney, if this comes off (the forecast says it will), this will have been 'achieved' in spite of the fact that it hasn't been a particularly sunny month. Most hot days (like today) and many other days have been cloudy and humid.

Yes. Even in December it was very cloudy. Especially on the hot days. There have also been some remarkably stubborn sea breezes that just would not yield to the offshore flow. Add to that an errant early southerly and I reckon Obs Hill, the one everybody hears about on the media, has missed out on about half a dozen 40 degree days so far this Summer.

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#1403927 - 24/01/2017 20:16 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8279
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
EC doesn't look so flash anymore, it's almost a replica of the current event - short lived humid hot spike followed by another deeper change. Nothing exceptional, however that will probably be followed by another heat event (The warm signal NAEFS is predicting)

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#1403949 - 25/01/2017 09:21 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9125
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Yep a little on the warm side.

My first night back at Tennis next Tuesday (after a break starting mid December) is going to be a bugger in two main ways, rubbish fitness and a day in the high 30's. I will have to try and remember how I coped when I played in Narrabri years ago grin

I suspect it's all my fault, I've been mocking the gods by counting down on Summer!!! Mum nature letting me know just how much she can hurt me if she wants to. grin

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#1403956 - 25/01/2017 10:19 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Rob G Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 622
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
One factor in the hot summer according to my observations is the frequency of slow moving highs sitting further north than usual in the Tasman Sea. Theyve been giving mainly NW winds - hence hot continental air over much of NSW. A more typical summer sees the highs further south, giving us the alternating maritime NE SE winds that WR alluded to. The pressure situation shows up nicely on the MSLP anomaly for December (http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/cmb.cgi?variable=mslp&area=nat&map=anomaly&time=latest ), with abnormally high pressure over much of NSW, but anomalously low pressure over Vic, SA and Tas.

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#1403962 - 25/01/2017 11:44 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
davidg Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/06/2008
Posts: 2197
Loc: Glenbrook/Penrith
Originally Posted By: HumphreyBear
I wonder what the obstetrics department at Royal Hobart Hospital is like, davidg? Seriously, that's no good and you're best to find somewhere cool at any cost.

00z looks a little better for some sort of change on the 1st of Feb; hopefully some troughing can get organised after that in response to the monsoon trough hitting the Top End now. That's the only way to break this run of amazing (and shocking) heat.



Haha i might have to make the suggestion to MrsG. Thankfully both sides of the family live no more than 5 mins away so we shouldn't be too uncomfortable by the time the next blast of heat rolls around.

My main concern for this period will be the fire danger as it has been incredibly dry the last month or so, combined with the exceptional heat we have had it makes for some very favorable conditions should some firebug get the urge.

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#1403970 - 25/01/2017 12:14 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9125
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Hey DG - hope all goes well smile

Yes bit of a surprise there have not been more fires!!

We have a light shower here at the moment - went and stood in it!! smile

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#1403971 - 25/01/2017 12:33 Re: NSW: The Big Heat (Jan 27th - Feb 12th 2017) [Re: HumphreyBear]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5309
Loc: Wollongong NSW
It's good that the firebug bastard got charged for lighting the fire in Kurri Kurri. Hopefully that has got rid of one arsonist but unfortunately there'd be a lot of pyromaniacs out there that find joy in lighting the bush up.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 14

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th

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