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#1404247 - 27/01/2017 20:15 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
KarrathaGirl Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 27/01/2012
Posts: 20
Loc: Karratha WA
Seems to be slowing down, from 26kms to 21 kms, anyone notice that ?

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#1404264 - 28/01/2017 00:34 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Yes has slowed down a tad ..17km/hr west south west movement now.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404266 - 28/01/2017 00:38 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Still about 250kms to the West of Hedland not much more going to happen even if it gets to Cat2 on current trajectory me thinks.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1404268 - 28/01/2017 01:18 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
JTWC call it a cyclone in their latest update.

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 116.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 271111Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM SHOWING IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ABOM RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AND A LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATION
FROM BEDOUT ISLAND SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 31 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC
03S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER AUSTRALIA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GUIDE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03S WILL HAVE A
BRIEF WINDOW TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS
CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT DIFFLUENCE. BEYOND TAU 24, EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND INCREASED SHEAR WILL HINDER TC 03S'S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF. SSTS WILL ALSO DECREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
WESTWARD AND TC 03S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER, AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND
281500Z.//
NNNN
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1404270 - 28/01/2017 02:37 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Karratha Pilotdude Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/03/2006
Posts: 2569
Loc: Dusty Karratha
Nice band on its way towards Karratha. Certainly nice and windy here at the moment!

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#1404271 - 28/01/2017 05:33 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 208
Loc: Karratha, WA
I think the low is passing a bit closer to Karratha/Dampier than expected! Looking at the radar and outside my window!

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#1404296 - 28/01/2017 10:13 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Still moving along parallel the Pilbara coast at 25km/hr going West South -West.

Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 65 kilometres of 19.8 degrees South, 115.7 degrees East , 160 kilometres northwest of Karratha and 310 kilometres west of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low lies over open waters to the northwest of Karratha and should continue tracking west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. The tropical low should strengthen and may reach tropical cyclone intensity on Saturday afternoon.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404297 - 28/01/2017 10:15 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Making it into a cyclone by this arvo but not more intensifying only going for Cat 1 now.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404300 - 28/01/2017 10:30 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Still got it getting to a 2 on their notes. Lets see if he can get there.

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#1404318 - 28/01/2017 13:55 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Looks like forming into cyclone nicely in this pic .

Got good circulation going .


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404332 - 28/01/2017 15:16 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
In reality though its a very big broad rotating mess of a circulation. Needs to tighten up a fair bit to get anything beyond a marginal CAT 1. It might do it over the next day but even though it looks OK on a visible sat image once you get in closer it looks like a dogs breakfast still.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1404334 - 28/01/2017 15:18 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I take that back it doesn't even look that good anymore on a visible sat image.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1404353 - 28/01/2017 21:03 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Matt_30 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2008
Posts: 62
Loc: Adelaide
Warning now cancelled with the low moving away to the west.

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#1404364 - 29/01/2017 00:03 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 20.3 degrees South, 111.5 degrees East , 330 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth .
Movement: west at 28 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low is moving further away from the coast. The tropical low may reach tropical cyclone intensity on Sunday morning but should not affect the mainland.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404365 - 29/01/2017 00:05 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Nearly all done bar the shouting ...but they still forecasting a Cat1 tommorrow at 8am even though by then it will be about 700kms off the coast...
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404391 - 29/01/2017 12:26 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 65 kilometres of 20.2 degrees South, 110.1 degrees East , 460 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth .
Movement: west at 26 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low is moving further away from the coast. The tropical low is not expected to reach cyclone intensity
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404392 - 29/01/2017 12:30 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Going ,going ,gone and it didn't even make it to to cyclone status. frown

Oh well at least we didn't have to make up a new thread for it. wink

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404406 - 29/01/2017 13:57 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah it's a funny old season. Yvette barely made it to cyclone status as well. So that's a lot of LOWS this season and no real TC'S. Lots of rain though. Broome must be up over 600mm for Dec/Jan which is making the mosquitoes very happy.
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#1404412 - 29/01/2017 14:42 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Next.
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1404420 - 29/01/2017 15:31 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Yes I wonder if there will be a next? I sure hope so. This is my last season, would love to see a big one. Eventually we will settle in Hobart but Hubby's work sees us to Broome in May for a year or 2. smile

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