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#1404021 - 25/01/2017 20:43 Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24807
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 2:49 pm WST on Wednesday 25 January 2017
Headline:
Tropical low moving across Kimberley may develop into a tropical cyclone late Friday or Saturday north of Pilbara.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Bidyadanga to Mardie.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.8 degrees South 127.9 degrees East, estimated to be 45 kilometres south southwest of Wyndham and 90 kilometres west of Kununurra.

Movement: west at 14 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low will move towards the west southwest across the Kimberley during Wednesday and Thursday. The low is expected to move offshore from the west Kimberley coast late Thursday or early Friday. The low will gradully strengthen and may develop into a tropical cyclone late Friday or during Saturday as it tracks north of and generally parallel to the Pilbara coast.

Hazards:
Ahead of and prior to the system becoming a tropical cyclone, squally thunderstorms are possible along the west Kimberley and Pilbara coasts.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Bidyadanga and Mardie on Friday evening or during Saturday.

Further heavy rainfall and flooding is likely over the Kimberley and a Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watches/Warnings are current. For further details please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/. Heavy rainfall will extend to coastal parts of the Pilbara from Friday.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises that there are no community alerts at present.

Communities between Bidyadanga and Mardie should listen for the next advice.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Wednesday 25 January.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

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#1404073 - 26/01/2017 11:00 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24807
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
obviously the West Aussies are so pumped for this system they can't even post their own cyclone advices!!

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 2:40 am WST on Thursday 26 January 2017
Headline:
A tropical low moving across Kimberley may develop into a tropical cyclone late Friday or Saturday north of Pilbara.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Bidyadanga to Mardie and Barrow Island, including Port Hedland and Karratha.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 85 kilometres of 16.3 degrees South 125.8 degrees East, estimated to be 420 kilometres east northeast of Broome and 320 kilometres west of Kununurra.

Movement: west southwest at 19 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low is moving west southwest across the northern Kimberley and is expected to move offshore from the west Kimberley coast this afternoon or this evening. The low will gradually strengthen and may develop into a tropical cyclone late Friday or during Saturday as it continues to track west-southwest to the north of and generally parallel to the Pilbara coast.

Hazards:
Ahead of and prior to the system becoming a tropical cyclone, squally thunderstorms are possible along the west Kimberley and Pilbara coasts.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal parts between Bidyadanga and Mardie and also on Barrow Island on Friday evening or during Saturday.

Further heavy rainfall and flooding is likely over the Kimberley and a Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watches/Warnings are current. For further details please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/. Heavy rainfall will extend to coastal parts of the Pilbara from Friday.

Recommended Action:
DFES advises that there are no community alerts at present.

Communities between Bidyadanga and Mardie should listen for the next advice.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Thursday 26 January.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

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#1404084 - 26/01/2017 11:33 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
It's all happening. Queensland marginal cyclones attacking WA
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1404102 - 26/01/2017 14:23 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 138
Loc: Karratha, WA
Karratha is on Blue Alert

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#1404104 - 26/01/2017 14:55 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Where did you see that Blanched?..

Think you guys only on a watch not blue alert.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404105 - 26/01/2017 14:58 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome
According to DFES

There is flooding at Bow Bridge Roadhouse on the Great Northern Highway.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404106 - 26/01/2017 14:59 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Apparently so Blanched. Karratha police tweeted they were on blue alert now. Nothing on DFES.

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#1404107 - 26/01/2017 15:03 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Only cyclone advice so far no coloured alerts.

Time of issue: 09:54 AM
Date of issue: 26 January 2017

Cyclone Advice for Pardoo Roadhouse to Exmouth, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth in the Pilbara

ALERT LEVEL
A Cyclone Advice is current for people in or near Pardoo Roadhouse to Exmouth, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth in the Pilbara


If you live in the Pilbara, between Pardoo Roadhouse and Exmouth, you need to prepare your home and family for a possible cyclone, with the development of a tropical low off the Western Australian coast.

This includes people in Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow and Exmouth.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404109 - 26/01/2017 15:12 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 138
Loc: Karratha, WA
Police called us to let us know at Blanche Bar. Seems they may have jumped the gun, they did tweet it and now it's been removed.

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#1404113 - 26/01/2017 16:51 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Issued at 11:09 AM WST on Thursday 26 Jan 2017

A tropical low of 1000hPa located over land approximately 100km north-northeast of Derby is moving to the west-southwest and is expected to move offshore north of Broome later this evening. There is a high risk of the system developing into a tropical cyclone late on Friday or early Saturday as it moves west off the Kimberley coast
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404114 - 26/01/2017 16:52 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Looking a lot more defined on the satellite pics now.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404115 - 26/01/2017 17:01 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Can see a bit of circulation happening in this infra red shot at 1.30pm WST


_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404118 - 26/01/2017 18:19 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Karratha Pilotdude Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/03/2006
Posts: 2569
Loc: Dusty Karratha
Sure looks like its not going to muck around, be very small time period for some rain in the Pilbara. Was hoping it would pass a little slower and give us a decent dumping but not looking likely.

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#1404121 - 26/01/2017 18:28 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Definitely the tour of duty going 23km/hr atm bit fast for good formation...


Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 110 kilometres of 16.9 degrees South, 124.1 degrees East .
Movement: southwest at 23 kilometres per hour .

A tropical low is close to the northwest Kimberley coast and will move offshore later today. The low will gradually strengthen and may develop into a tropical cyclone late Friday or during Saturday as it continues to track west southwest to the north of and parallel to the Pilbara coast.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404127 - 26/01/2017 18:55 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Bit of a timelapse from last night with a big storm and shelf cloud being pushed off this LOW. Fun to experience.
https://youtu.be/FQXeNBLOqEs
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1404132 - 26/01/2017 19:43 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 259
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
Our work crew SW of Onslow are getting a big downpour at the moment. Will be interesting to see how much rain the Western Pilbara get. I have a feeling they'll be stuck at camp a while over the next few days.

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#1404148 - 26/01/2017 22:38 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Yes lets hope the Pilbara get a good soaking ...
Just hope its not just isolated dumps but I have a feeling that's what going to happen .
Although its looking like its getting more condensed as it gets near the coast .
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404149 - 26/01/2017 22:39 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Only 61mms at my place so far but pretty still out there atm so still building me thinks...
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404153 - 26/01/2017 23:21 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
topmick Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/01/2011
Posts: 14
Loc: Buderim, SE / QLD
Heavy rain & thunder storms at Wickham now.

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#1404154 - 26/01/2017 23:26 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Good to hear topmick. Awesome that the coastal Pilbara is getting a drink finally.
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1404157 - 27/01/2017 00:17 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
This LOW is virtually right on top of Broome right now according to the latest track map. Its pumping out side with a staggering 4 knots lol. Its going to take some time for this one to wind up I feel. Wonder whether it will even make TC status. Be good to see what it does.
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Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1404159 - 27/01/2017 00:27 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 95 kilometres of 17.6 degrees South, 122.6 degrees East , 55 kilometres northeast of Broome and 520 kilometres northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 24 kilometres per hour .

A tropical low lies near the coast north of Broome and will move offshore later tonight. The low will gradually strengthen and may develop into a tropical cyclone during Friday as it continues to track west southwest to the north of and parallel to the Pilbara coast.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404160 - 27/01/2017 00:29 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Apparently now the Pilbara on blue alert.
DFES advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in parts of the Pilbara from Port Hedland (not including Port Hedland or South Hedland) to the Exmouth Gulf, including Barrow Island but not including Pannawonica. This includes the towns of Whim Creek, Wickham, Point Sampson, Karratha, Roebourne, Dampier and Onslow need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404161 - 27/01/2017 00:31 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I can see stars outside we must be in the eye. bhahaha
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#1404162 - 27/01/2017 00:32 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Looks like only a TC in our jurisdiction for a couple of days...just

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404164 - 27/01/2017 00:38 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Definitely can see the circle tightening as its get closer to here .
Also it seems on the satellite pics like its trying its hardest to suck in a bit more moisture from the Timor Sea and Indonesian archipelago
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404169 - 27/01/2017 07:43 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Popeye]
tag Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2010
Posts: 477
Loc: Alligator creek
Originally Posted By: Popeye
This LOW is virtually right on top of Broome right now according to the latest track map. Its pumping out side with a staggering 4 knots lol. Its going to take some time for this one to wind up I feel. Wonder whether it will even make TC status. Be good to see what it does.


Maybe you stole one of our Qld cyclones hey Pops,hahaha
4 Knots, could be climbing towards Cat 2 haha,good luck and hope it spins up to something decent for you.

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#1404178 - 27/01/2017 10:08 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome
Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 17.6 degrees South, 120.1 degrees East , 230 kilometres west of Broome and 340 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland .
Movement: west at 24 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low lies over open water well west of Broome and should continue tracking west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast during Friday and Saturday. The tropical low should strengthen and is likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity later Friday or Saturday.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404179 - 27/01/2017 10:09 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Seems like its moving away from the coast on that Westerly track and moving further out to sea already.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404181 - 27/01/2017 10:36 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Got the circulation but can't see it ramping up too much further ...
So far we got a maximum wind gust of 37km/hr not enough to blow my roof off but it did make my towel on the clothes line move...ever so slightly.. smile

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404182 - 27/01/2017 10:37 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

At least this low has quite a bit of moisture in it and will hopefully give the Pilbara a drink.

So far 87mms at my place.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404183 - 27/01/2017 10:42 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Heres hoping it does. But I think it is too far north to affect our weather. Fingers crossed for Karatha

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#1404195 - 27/01/2017 12:57 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Predicting to a Cat 2 tomorrow now .Yay.
Got a bit more South West track now too.

_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404197 - 27/01/2017 13:02 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 65 kilometres of 18.2 degrees South, 119.7 degrees East , 260 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and 270 kilometres west of Broome .
Movement: west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low lies over open water well west of Broome and should continue tracking west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast during Friday and Saturday. The tropical low should strengthen and is likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity late Friday or Saturday.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404210 - 27/01/2017 16:13 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Karratha and Onslow had up to 72/km/hr winds so thats not amazing but still considered gale force nonetheless.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404220 - 27/01/2017 17:04 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
redbucket Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 259
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
Our work crew have now relocated from site up to Onslow due to the threat of flooding.

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#1404221 - 27/01/2017 17:10 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
topmick Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/01/2011
Posts: 14
Loc: Buderim, SE / QLD
Were still working at Wickham, fairly light breeze - scattered showers.
Bloody fly's are worse than ever today.

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#1404232 - 27/01/2017 18:03 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 208
Loc: Karratha, WA
Getting pretty gusty here when the rain bands come through, think everyone just lost their bins in my street, rain now heavier in this one. Had some decent gusts in Dampier earlier on as well

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#1404234 - 27/01/2017 18:11 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Yes Weathergrrl by the looks of the radar your got quite a few healthy looking rain bands coming your way.
Enjoy it while you can..

Pouring down here atm in Chinatown .
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404235 - 27/01/2017 18:18 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Going a bit closer and more parallel to the coast than initially expected.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 65 kilometres of 18.4 degrees South, 118.5 degrees East , 215 kilometres north of Port Hedland and 310 kilometres north northeast of Karratha .
Movement: west southwest at 21 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low lies over open water to the north of Port Hedland and should continue tracking west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast during Friday and Saturday. The tropical low should strengthen and is likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity on Saturday morning.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404247 - 27/01/2017 20:15 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
KarrathaGirl Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 27/01/2012
Posts: 20
Loc: Karratha WA
Seems to be slowing down, from 26kms to 21 kms, anyone notice that ?

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#1404264 - 28/01/2017 00:34 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Yes has slowed down a tad ..17km/hr west south west movement now.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404266 - 28/01/2017 00:38 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Still about 250kms to the West of Hedland not much more going to happen even if it gets to Cat2 on current trajectory me thinks.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1404268 - 28/01/2017 01:18 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
JTWC call it a cyclone in their latest update.

REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 116.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 271111Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM SHOWING IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ABOM RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AND A LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATION
FROM BEDOUT ISLAND SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 31 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC
03S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER AUSTRALIA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GUIDE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03S WILL HAVE A
BRIEF WINDOW TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS
CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT DIFFLUENCE. BEYOND TAU 24, EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND INCREASED SHEAR WILL HINDER TC 03S'S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF. SSTS WILL ALSO DECREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
WESTWARD AND TC 03S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER, AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND
281500Z.//
NNNN
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#1404270 - 28/01/2017 02:37 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Karratha Pilotdude Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/03/2006
Posts: 2569
Loc: Dusty Karratha
Nice band on its way towards Karratha. Certainly nice and windy here at the moment!

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#1404271 - 28/01/2017 05:33 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 208
Loc: Karratha, WA
I think the low is passing a bit closer to Karratha/Dampier than expected! Looking at the radar and outside my window!

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#1404296 - 28/01/2017 10:13 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Still moving along parallel the Pilbara coast at 25km/hr going West South -West.

Details of Tropical Low at 5:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 65 kilometres of 19.8 degrees South, 115.7 degrees East , 160 kilometres northwest of Karratha and 310 kilometres west of Port Hedland .
Movement: west southwest at 25 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low lies over open waters to the northwest of Karratha and should continue tracking west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. The tropical low should strengthen and may reach tropical cyclone intensity on Saturday afternoon.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1404297 - 28/01/2017 10:15 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Making it into a cyclone by this arvo but not more intensifying only going for Cat 1 now.
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#1404300 - 28/01/2017 10:30 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Still got it getting to a 2 on their notes. Lets see if he can get there.

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#1404318 - 28/01/2017 13:55 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Looks like forming into cyclone nicely in this pic .

Got good circulation going .


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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1404332 - 28/01/2017 15:16 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
In reality though its a very big broad rotating mess of a circulation. Needs to tighten up a fair bit to get anything beyond a marginal CAT 1. It might do it over the next day but even though it looks OK on a visible sat image once you get in closer it looks like a dogs breakfast still.
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#1404334 - 28/01/2017 15:18 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I take that back it doesn't even look that good anymore on a visible sat image.
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#1404353 - 28/01/2017 21:03 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Matt_30 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2008
Posts: 62
Loc: Adelaide
Warning now cancelled with the low moving away to the west.

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#1404364 - 29/01/2017 00:03 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome
Details of Tropical Low at 8:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 45 kilometres of 20.3 degrees South, 111.5 degrees East , 330 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth .
Movement: west at 28 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low is moving further away from the coast. The tropical low may reach tropical cyclone intensity on Sunday morning but should not affect the mainland.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1404365 - 29/01/2017 00:05 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Nearly all done bar the shouting ...but they still forecasting a Cat1 tommorrow at 8am even though by then it will be about 700kms off the coast...
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1404391 - 29/01/2017 12:26 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome


Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 am AWST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 65 kilometres of 20.2 degrees South, 110.1 degrees East , 460 kilometres west northwest of Exmouth .
Movement: west at 26 kilometres per hour .

The tropical low is moving further away from the coast. The tropical low is not expected to reach cyclone intensity
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1404392 - 29/01/2017 12:30 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3211
Loc: Broome

Going ,going ,gone and it didn't even make it to to cyclone status. frown

Oh well at least we didn't have to make up a new thread for it. wink

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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1404406 - 29/01/2017 13:57 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah it's a funny old season. Yvette barely made it to cyclone status as well. So that's a lot of LOWS this season and no real TC'S. Lots of rain though. Broome must be up over 600mm for Dec/Jan which is making the mosquitoes very happy.
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#1404412 - 29/01/2017 14:42 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Next.
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#1404420 - 29/01/2017 15:31 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
Yes I wonder if there will be a next? I sure hope so. This is my last season, would love to see a big one. Eventually we will settle in Hobart but Hubby's work sees us to Broome in May for a year or 2. smile

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#1404443 - 29/01/2017 18:36 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7773
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
or 5 or 15 haha. You will love Broome Ningergirl. Well I do. Its a changing town but if you accept the negative stuff going on around the place and just focus on all the positives its an awesome place to live.
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#1404473 - 30/01/2017 01:00 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1042
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Well looks like the low caught the coral sea virus
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#1404474 - 30/01/2017 01:01 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1042
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Coral sea been dead since yasi...
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#1404516 - 30/01/2017 12:28 Re: Tropical Low (90P) Indian Ocean January 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ningergirl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/03/2012
Posts: 196
Loc: Cable Beach
I am looking forward to Broome very much. I love it here and we also have our problems. I went out on the reef this morning and there was quite a bit of new broken sponge and corals from the passing low. Saw 6 blue ringed octopuses as well.

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