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#1405163 - 03/02/2017 18:55 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1669
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
What I reckoned TB, this mornings ACCESS & others just didn't get behind a good rain event for us!

Oh well, should know by now grin cool
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 19mm to 0900 18th.

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#1405191 - 03/02/2017 21:34 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6083
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Interesting variations in the models. All of them have a solid area of rain but all in different places. GFS has its stripe of heavy stuff along the border with reasonable rain around the ranges, short range ACC has switched north but continues to have a pre show shower or storm preview early hours Sunday in west and central parts and EC unusually is very generous with solid amounts on Monday on my 3 sample towns, Echuca, Woodend and Melbourne with some warm area shower storms around on Sunday. It also has bumper falls in parts of Gippsland.
WRF model actually had the heavy band further south nearer the coast before it disappeared off WZ.

So 48 to 72hrs out we know it will rain but who does best is a little hazy. If I was to have a bet I still feel like last night that the high is going to try and push the heavier stuff north but depending on trough position SE facing areas would potentially do ok even if the high nudges in fast. In short like the models I have no idea but if EC could be right that would be great.
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#1405225 - 04/02/2017 08:09 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 949
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Nicely put ruckle, agree with everything
U have said.

The roller coaster ride continues on this
Mornings runs, with access r having barley
Anything for southern vic, but gfs and
Access g I think are looking a little better??

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#1405226 - 04/02/2017 08:10 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 949
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Access g also throwing out some possibly
Very warm stretch of temps after this
Rain event passes

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#1405242 - 04/02/2017 09:17 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6461
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Wouldn't we love it here at Maffra if this latest EC rain prediction came true:



Circa 47mm !! smile smile

....however GFS says "17mm or so will do you lad" frown :



Edited by Petros (04/02/2017 09:20)

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#1405245 - 04/02/2017 09:36 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6083
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Yep 12z run shows upgrade (2nd in a row) on EC for my place and also places out east on Monday. GFS is more widespread with heavier distribution than on previous run but with a northern bias to the heaviest strip. ACCR does shunt things north on Monday pretty quick (though a fair hosing along the border progged) but Sunday still has heavy stuff for north central and NW prior to that. It continues to indicate activity tonight over western and central parts and most other models aren't enthusiastic about that except GFS with a little in far NW.ACC g well don't really pay much attention tbh but it has heavier stuff south.

Whats encouraging is both major models continue to upgrade amounts and the area that will receive good falls. ACC R still has good amounts as well but not too much for the S. It looks like the SW of the state is the most likely place to miss out under most scenarios.

The other encouraging thing is the sky atm and also the satellite. Looks good. Starting to get hopeful of 10-20mm here at home at a minimum.

As an aside my minimum's the first 4 days of Feb 8.3, 8.8, 7.8 and 6.7 today. Already 22.3 now though so will be a hot arvo.

As for following this event, looks hot and also a little damp so a big tease likely and discomfort for summer haters.
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#1405246 - 04/02/2017 09:43 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6083
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Sorry just for fun the WRF model has a huge amount of rain in central parts in early hours of Monday, this was true my garden s set!



It also has some activity starting in Central west parts around midnight tonight.
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#1405248 - 04/02/2017 09:56 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 949
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
It's all very interesting that's for sure,
She's a hard cookie to crack this one!!
It's one of those events were u have to wait
Until it's actually happening in your back
Yard or not senario lol
Hopefully tonight's updates hold onto something
Like this morning

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#1405249 - 04/02/2017 09:59 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 949
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Jane bun stated last night that anywhere north
Or north east suburbs of Melbourne
Could see anywhere up to 50mm
And south east suburb less than 10mm
😂😂 what a variance??

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#1405251 - 04/02/2017 10:04 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 949
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
All might depend on the timing of
The dryer air/when the southerly change
Pushes through??

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#1405263 - 04/02/2017 11:41 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1669
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
WATL this morn. has us more firmly within the 15-25mm area for Monday, better than yesterday.
EC dangles the carrot also as said.............
ACCESS a little better also - who knows, I will however report with perfect accuracy this rain events figures, on Wednesday grin laugh
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-15mm Aug 19mm to 0900 18th.

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#1405266 - 04/02/2017 11:50 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2227
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Feels cold this morning Sat 06:50am EDT 11.5c then expected to rise to 36c Today.

There is alot of moist is moving down from NW "Outback" so hope its a good compression against SW Change.

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#1405307 - 04/02/2017 15:29 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6083
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
ACCr short range ACC has updated and pulled the precip south. Central part of the state getting rain tonight into tomorrow then later again tomorrow into Monday. Fantastic totals on the bullseye section. Its been on about early start since it came in range and looking at radar it looks like being right.
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#1405312 - 04/02/2017 15:45 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 949
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah I just saw that update to ruckle.
Def looks at least better on this arvo
Run compared to this morning 😀

Now for access g and gfs?? Fingers
Crossed that all the stars are aligning

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#1405334 - 04/02/2017 18:16 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6461
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS and AccR downgrade N Gippy to < 15mm total for this event, but as stated, others will do well so thats good. Especially wetting the high country bush areas for us out this way.

Currently showing up as a very slow moving rain blob over SA thats heading due E N-side of the divide:



Good luck all!

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#1405335 - 04/02/2017 18:25 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6083
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Satellite looks great. Storms back into WA, cold air still heading NE towards it all.

32.3c here after the cold start. Nearly 33 at a nearby Kyneton station and 31 in Trentham, pretty funny after some of the minimums this morning. (Trentham was 4.8c).

High clouds moving fast, if storms did form tomorrow (or tonight for that matter)they would have some nice speed on them.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1405336 - 04/02/2017 18:37 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6461
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Interesting for me that the above AustIR shows the most precipitation in Aus (S Central SA) is actually under the nations highest MSL air pressure!:



... I'm far too dumb to offer any constructive comment on this, but would love Ken Kato et al to advise if this is normal or not.

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#1405346 - 04/02/2017 20:11 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 949
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Access g now updated and now seems to
Be down graded for tommoz and pushing
Most of the possible good falls back
Until Monday.
But then Monday looks upgraded lol

So I'd say for west south gippy area
Access r is an upgrade/ gfs little down
Grade and access g probably even??

It's all still very much moving around each
Update, still could turn out to be anything

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#1405347 - 04/02/2017 20:13 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 949
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Access g throwing some pretty intense
Heat and wind next wed/ thurs

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#1405348 - 04/02/2017 20:15 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 949
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Don't be so harsh on your self Petros 😉
But your right, that chart is strange lol

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