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#1405353 - 04/02/2017 21:04 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1588
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
At this stage pumping water from one tank -> to another larger, making room for the down pour to be captured, & on the other hand still watering grass and veg. garden.

EC is still talking it up, Sat 2mm,Sun 19mm, Mon 86mm -

(http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Boisdale/long.html)

I'll be happy with a third of that and lucky to get it based on the vagaries of the other models.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1405354 - 04/02/2017 21:10 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 925
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
When u look at the current national satalite/
Radar loop for Australia, the rain and cloud
Band coming into vic looks like its disappear
In front of our eyes ?? Is this cloud band the
Main event or surely I'm missing something ?? Lol

The air was very dry over vic today, will
This have a sapping effect on this system?

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#1405355 - 04/02/2017 21:22 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
EC has gone pretty massive for eastern parts of the state as Samboz alluded to , increased for Melbourne, increased north of here (Echuca) and maintained our forecast from last runs of round 35-40mm. Tomorrow night is main show for central parts and Monday for eastern parts.

Will be officially disappointed if we don't manage 20mm here between now and Monday lunchtime.
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#1405361 - 04/02/2017 22:30 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1588
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Hmmm! - "officially disappointed" Ruckle, - very powerful, MUST BRING RAIN !!

WATL has us inside the 25-50mm band now, it's working already R, very, very cool
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1405366 - 04/02/2017 23:18 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
It will be official. Will file a complaint with Huey.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1405367 - 04/02/2017 23:34 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Just had a look at 00z Canadian has 50+mm here overnight Sunday. Hmmmm don't think so. Some huge TT values on most models, I guess if cells and or areas of rain set up like training motion in one location that's why the high progs. Most models do have stripes of heavy precip indicating some sort of training of cells.

Guess we go to bed and wait and see how tomorrow plays out.

Wind has gone to the S here and DP jumped up to 14.
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#1405382 - 05/02/2017 08:03 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
1.0mm so far.
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#1405388 - 05/02/2017 08:13 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 925
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Still nothing here at all.
Mt Baw Baw had 1.8mm that's
As close as the rain gets so far

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#1405405 - 05/02/2017 09:19 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
12z run EC has increased slightly (to 39mm)for here and ACC R has 30-40mm here. Really unstable looking sky in places. Time will tell as GFS has me back around 20mm for the event.

Good news is we are talking about our rain hopes and totals.
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#1405406 - 05/02/2017 09:23 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 925
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah it's really looking good for u
Ruck all throughout that dividing
Range area😀

Both gfs and access g have backed right
Off compared to last night in
The Gippsland area!!
Access r still looking really good so that's
We're I'm clutching at now lol

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#1405418 - 05/02/2017 09:48 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1104
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Did I sleep through the Thunderstorms?
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26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1405428 - 05/02/2017 10:11 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: The Fishman]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Originally Posted By: The Fishman
Did I sleep through the Thunderstorms?


I doubt it, there were none forecast or expected.

Was some quality virga around earlier you might have missed. wink
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#1405458 - 05/02/2017 11:39 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 539
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Very warm and humid here. Cloudy but sun breaking through a bit now. No rain though I thought I heard a few spots before dawn.

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#1405459 - 05/02/2017 11:41 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Ruckle]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1588
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: Ruckle
It will be official. Will file a complaint with Huey.


May not be successful, my 60+ yrs of letters to Santa haven't been answered yet, haven't given up but the last 50yrs has got me thinking grin

0.5mm in the wee hours, already >5% of last months rain, it's happening, little slow so far, but happening.

Gusty N/W here, 26C, cloudy.

BOM National radar has a nice damp N/W air flow lining us up for later on, WATL also with us deeper in the 25-50mm area. EC 60mm'ish for the event, just need rain now !
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

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#1405462 - 05/02/2017 11:46 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1588
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: doogasnow
Yeah it's really looking good for u
Ruck all throughout that dividing
Range area😀

Both gfs and access g have backed right
Off compared to last night in
The Gippsland area!!
Access r still looking really good so that's
We're I'm clutching at now lol


Agree Dooga', ACCESS looked better this morning than y'day, by quite a bit, renewed confidence based on that !

GFS, hmmm, not so good.
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

Top
#1405477 - 05/02/2017 12:51 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 539
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Just started light rain. Trough seems to be lying along the Murray then down through Shep towards central Gippsland.

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#1405480 - 05/02/2017 12:56 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
After a few more spits and lots of low cloud we have had quite a period of in and out full sun. Temp 24.5 DP 19, nice breeze, sky rocketing along.

Sounding shows loads of moisture along way up in the atmosphere. Also a lot of wind up above. Quite a few clearish slots in central and western parts atm and pressure starting dive over the same parts. Going to be a very interesting mid to late arvo and onwards.

Someone is going to get very wet.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1405481 - 05/02/2017 12:57 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1588
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Trying here also TB, wind swung to the W a bit and cooler than the N/W'ly temps.

This is an interesting site -

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-218.62,-33.87,3000/loc=146.833,-37.885
_________________________
Rain 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm F-5mm M-66mm A-32.5mm M-24mm J-88mm J-143mm A-17.5mm S-89.5mm O-53.5mm Nov-61.5mm Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm Feb-23mm March-49mm April-40mm May-12mm June-12mm July-9.5mm to 0900 21st

Top
#1405486 - 05/02/2017 13:13 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1104
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST! But we know what is going to happen!
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1405489 - 05/02/2017 13:25 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6079
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
They weren't forecast for last night though.

May this evening be very stormy for you.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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