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#1404439 - 29/01/2017 18:04 Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017??
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The 8 day outlook looks a bit gloomy in terms of summer monsoonal activity all across Australia's North?? - the only thing notable in the outlook for us Vic's seems to be a "rain dropping" cold change possibility later next weekend??.

...if it comes off, better than the dry changes we are suffering at present and creates the chance of a weak storm or two??

This GFS's "last cast of the runes"......


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#1404658 - 31/01/2017 09:48 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Good pickup P, looking favourable for southern Vic this stage, my better half says "don't torment yourself" - must have heard it from me many times before........lol

This has a good monsoonal feed from the N/W and the site models all reckon somethings up!

Be happy here to get some moisture to take the fire danger off for a while, if fortunate enough to get say 50mm it could be a season changer.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1404683 - 31/01/2017 12:33 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Snowy Hibbo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2016
Posts: 222
Loc: Matlock, Victoria.

Looks real wet in the North East and East Gippsland on GFS.


Edited by Snowy Hibbo (31/01/2017 12:35)
_________________________
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http://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com.au
Just ask, I'm more than happy to provide.

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#1404685 - 31/01/2017 12:37 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2162
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Looks like good soaking rain from Sunday into Monday.

South of Victoria will be cooler of early autumn feeling while the Northern Country to NSW border very warm.

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#1404740 - 31/01/2017 18:53 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looks good on access g but not so good for
Gippsland on gfs?? Lol
Battle of the models, who will win out??
Still a fair way out so I suppose the models
Will eb and flow some what

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#1404742 - 31/01/2017 18:56 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Also a breezy top of 24c up here today and
Another dry change here with the old
Rain Guage dry when I checked this
Morning!!

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#1404757 - 31/01/2017 20:24 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep GFS has back off rain a little (or pushed it up Nth of the Divide) - and is that a potential 3rd WA cyclone forming???? - maybe this time we might pick up a little from the leftovers!


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#1404816 - 01/02/2017 09:51 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
All models spouting good rain falls next Sun/Mon/Tues, but favouring Monday as the biggest.

Even BOM has us down for 3-15mm per day for Sun/Mon/Tue next.

Be interesting where this one ends up.


http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/rainfallchart.jsp?lt=wzstate&lc=vic&mh=168




Edited by samboz (01/02/2017 10:00)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1404827 - 01/02/2017 11:18 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2162
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Felt like summer is finish, Lucky Victorians...

Overcast of 20c at 11am.

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#1404883 - 01/02/2017 21:09 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Starting to get my hopes up, will try and hold off till 00z run on Friday.

Meanwhile sunset at home tonight



_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1404906 - 01/02/2017 23:46 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2162
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very interesting weather pattern in middle of Summer.
VICTORIA is cool down thanks to Slim ,merging High pressure keeping to SW to SE flow across VIC.

Heat sits far inand NSW and QLD for last 4 weeks, sorry for people live in Broken Hill over 40c for days.

Cyclone in WA turn away into Indian Ocean is upsetting us that not bring enough rain to SE Australia.
JUST want a Cyclone to move SE direction would bring heavy rain.


I felt so boring no Thunderstorms to chase.

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#1405027 - 02/02/2017 18:07 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6334
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nice mackeral sunset photos Ruckle!

GFS is "on again" re useful rain prospects for Vic later next weekend:



...and re chances of a WA cyclone, maybe the latest trend towards a huge low pressure system to develop might enhance our chances of a dribble or two from it?????

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#1405036 - 02/02/2017 19:13 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah Petros it looks especially good
For the north and east of vic, would
Really like it to push a little further south😉
Another important event this one, as potentially
Some pretty warm days after this event
And no real rain on the horizon again!!

Would absolutely love the fairytale senario
Of 20-30mm but I'm thinking we may struggle
For 10-15mm??

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#1405060 - 02/02/2017 21:10 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6059
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
EC cant seem to work out whether the bulk of the rain is Sunday or Monday. On tonights run has switched to Sunday. Next high coming in real fast.. frown
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1405113 - 03/02/2017 10:37 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1437
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Nice sunset pics, thanks, a little of that cloud over this way early the next morning to our W.

Where did this weather event end up, probably in the bin of what could have been.........

Looking at Access, GFS and EC this morning our corner of Vic could be lucky to come out of this with 25mm, good chance of less.

BOM still forecasting good rains here but I'm tipping it'll fall in a heap today/tomorrow.

At least the weather is cooler for the last few days grin

On the positive side large areas of Vic will get good rains, the High Country should get a good dousing and settle fire danger ratings for a while, Omeo close to some of the highest forecast rainfall on this morn.'s WATL.


Edited by samboz (03/02/2017 10:46)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1405120 - 03/02/2017 11:35 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2162
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I might throw weather in bin for another week as same pattern of slim High Pressure and trough sits along Victoria Border hot in North Cooler in South.

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#1405124 - 03/02/2017 12:53 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 539
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
BoM forecaster on ABC Country Hour (today 12.30) suggesting more a northern Vic event - that the trough is likely to lie further north - though, as you say, Samboz, WATL still gives SE Vic very good falls. So, I think SW will miss out on anything significant; central north and NE in for a good soak ... south central a bit iffy and SE ...I think it's lineball btw 25-50mm and not much at all. As they say, "We shall see".

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#1405133 - 03/02/2017 14:21 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2162
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
By 8th next Wednesday the heat will quick move in Northern Country before new High Pressure slim in and push Heat back North again.

Tropical low pressure will be spinning off Far North QLD Coast and move down Brisbane and wait next chart update if Low pressure will move inland too early.

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#1405146 - 03/02/2017 16:55 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 878
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Bom now only saying 3-8mm for Sunday
And 1-5mm Monday!!! 😨😨
Yesterday it was 5-10mm on Sunday
And 10-25mm Monday!!!
That gets me down those figures!!


Your country hour weather prediction
Unfortunately looks true thunderbob

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#1405150 - 03/02/2017 17:08 Re: Vic - a typical "cool season" cold change 5 - 7 Feb 2017?? [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 539
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Doogasnow, I've just looked at the model-generated forecast for Sarsfield for Monday (The loud bang I heard this arvo must have been the bottom falling out of the local forecast)...it's dropped from max 40mm to max 20mm. It may keep on goin' down me fears.

And the official BoM forecast for Bairnsdale is now Sun: 2 - 6mm; Mon: 6 - 20mm.

The best cumulative totals I can see progged for nth of ranges is about 35mm. Interested to have a look at WATL when it updates. And cumulative totals in the SW are about stuff all!

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