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#1404367 - 29/01/2017 02:24 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
well it's nice to see today will be a stinker, that's an
official meterological term by the way. i can smell it
already, better today than tomorrow, not that tomorrow's
gunna be brass monkey weather. the peak of the 850 temp
intrusion occurs tonight and with an impending doona of
cloud cover it's going to be a tad uncomfortable.
mid to high 20s for anything remotly inland, low to
mid 20s for s.e. and coastal with the exception of high
teens for s.e. coastal.
weak change is looking to come through around monday
sunriseish and will be a predominately coastal change
only, the temperature gradient from coast to inland is
huge and steep especially pt lincoln to ceduna.
this is borne out where renmark gets two days of 40 and
is only tempered on tuesday when the change cranks up a
bit more penetration to sweep the hardcore stuff more
toward broken hill but it sure as hell aint gunna be
cold, any complaining about that will be simply for the
sake of complaining.
as for rain there might be a sprinkle with the emphasis
on 'might' and 'sprinkle'. no need to go out sandbagging.
it's still 20 here now.

TH
_________________________



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#1404368 - 29/01/2017 03:40 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Meh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 209
According to ACCESS summer is over from Tuesday. I am already hungover from the impeding southerly. Mid 20's pus for several days with the standard gale force southerlies and low teens nights.



Edited by teckert (29/01/2017 10:14)
Edit Reason: removed language and inappropriate comment.

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#1404375 - 29/01/2017 08:46 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Meh]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
Originally Posted By: Galaxyman
Mid 20's pus for several days with the standard gale
force southerlies and low teens nights.


what the hell are you on about?, forecast temps. for
renmark are
sun....40
mon...40
tues...30
wed...30
thurs..29
fri......32
sat....34
so tell me exactly where there is there a mid twenty
in amongst that lot 'cos i'm damned if i can see it.

perousing and teasing information out of models is
frought with danger at the best of times and relying
on one model to give a 'definative' scenario even
moreso. having said that access even agrees with the
bom forecast temps i listed as of sat 12z run which
going by your post time you were using the same run.
how or why you came up with mid 20s is beyond my
paramater of discussion here. even when i'm pulling
temps from models i always cross correlate them with
bom where possible and any appreciable deviation is
investigated thoughly.
gale force winds??
bom definition = approx 60-90kmh
renmarks forecast is for 20ish max for monday when it
will be 40 and tuesday when everyone gets to cool
down a tad after 2 days of 40. for the rest of the
week the winds drop off from there.

for everyone else.......
while investigating Gms claims accsess is having fun
with sun and mon week, whilst the scenario they currently
predict is 99% chance bullsheet, gfs, ec and access have
us set up for a nice juiced up longwave trough again,
totals too early to predict as is storm paramaters but
it will be one to keep an eye on as it has good potential
at this stage.

TH
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#1404380 - 29/01/2017 09:42 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2076
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
So what does gfs,ec and access have on the cards for the LSE sunday/monday week Thunda as i am getting sick and tired of all the good weather being sent to NSW and QLD whilst were stuck with depressing southerlies and garden variety temps when February is our hottest month normally

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#1404381 - 29/01/2017 09:54 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Meh]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6433
Loc: Wollongong and Berrima NSW
I agree with TH about your forecast, unless you're staying in Mt Gambier for the week.

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#1404386 - 29/01/2017 11:25 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Wave Rider]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2076
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Amen to that Wave Rider these rotten and pesky southerlies are making our weather conditions feel like autumn/winter not summer whilst NSW is basking in our marrow boiling temps of which said winds have been sending to them


Edited by rstewart84 (29/01/2017 11:25)

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#1404389 - 29/01/2017 11:42 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
hi RS, i'm sorry mate but as things stand at the moment not
good, to make things clear for you the scenario i was
talking about is a huge rain event running in a narrow band
from EP to the border and from the fleurieu to pt. wakefield
running wnw-ese over 2 days giving some places the best
part of 150m. that's ridiculous and although not impossible
99% won't happen but it shows the lower half of the s.e.
getting virtually nothing.
dont worry yet, this far out narrow rainbands like that
can shift 2-250km north or south this far out to their
final analysis and that's a big IF they happen at all.
what is looking much more definate but still not set in
concrete is the longwave trough and moisture infeed for
next sun/mon, that will be more definate around tues/wed.
dont dispair RS it's just too far out to start accurising
so soon, don't worry about something that might not
happen until it actually doesn't happen, keep an eye
on what's going on and snort any information that's
dished up to you.

TH
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#1404390 - 29/01/2017 11:55 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1607
Loc: Bridgewater
it will be mid 20's at home.... with the aircon on.

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#1404394 - 29/01/2017 12:41 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2076
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Thanks for that Thunda i just wish these putrid and rotten southerlies would bugger off and annoy NSW whilst we get the marrow boiling temps that the ye old big wigs at the BOM predicted we would get in February but its starting to feel more like late autumn not summer


Edited by rstewart84 (29/01/2017 12:42)

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#1404407 - 29/01/2017 14:02 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7154
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I like any weather that doesn't pander to anyone.

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#1404429 - 29/01/2017 16:36 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Seira]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
I like any weather that doesn't pander to anyone.


which translates.....
"i don't like any weather that panders to someone".
well your seriously outta luck sunshine 'cos what ever
weather happens it will always pander to someone so
what that means your saying is you don't like any
weather.
on that note you might have to go cosmic and move
to the moon, i hear any atmospheric weather has been
postponed indefinitely there. poke


TH
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#1404459 - 29/01/2017 21:08 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 578
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
I like any weather that doesn't pander to anyone.


on that note you might have to go cosmic and move
to the moon, i hear any atmospheric weather has been
postponed indefinitely there. poke

TH


The Solar Wind might be construed as weather ... in the outer atmosphere of The Sun


Edited by betsuin (29/01/2017 21:10)

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#1404467 - 30/01/2017 00:06 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 578
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
It's dead calm here - not a puff of gully wind to be enjoyed.

Upstairs seems warm:
Sunday 29 January 23:29:49 ACDT 2017
SHT15: Temperature = 32.10 C, Humidity = 22.91 %, Dewpoint = 8.30 C
Baro Temperature: 32.44 | Pressure: 991.44

Kent-Town reckons it's 27.5degC
WZ reckons the minimum is 27degC tonight - 熱帯夜 "nettai-yoru" aka tropical-night...

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#1404469 - 30/01/2017 00:21 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
Meh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 209
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
Originally Posted By: Galaxyman
Mid 20's pus for several days with the standard gale
force southerlies and low teens nights.


what the hell are you on about?, forecast temps. for
renmark are
sun....40
mon...40
tues...30
wed...30
thurs..29
fri......32
sat....34
so tell me exactly where there is there a mid twenty
in amongst that lot 'cos i'm damned if i can see it.


http://www.australianweathernews.com/OCF/OCF_024.HTM

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#1404470 - 30/01/2017 00:26 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: rstewart84]
Meh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 209
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
Thanks for that Thunda i just wish these putrid and rotten southerlies would bugger off and annoy NSW whilst we get the marrow boiling temps that the ye old big wigs at the BOM predicted we would get in February but its starting to feel more like late autumn not summer


(edited)...nothing even close to resembling summer and according to the models it is only going to get worse. Calling it "autumn" is being too kind. Even freaking Canberra is 2C hotter than Adelaide MTD and only 1C below Renmark. Considering they are closer to the coast, much higher elevation and slightly further south that is complete BS. Hopefully Sydney/NSW get a cold, cloudy SE'ly infested summer next year. Enough is enough.

Looks like BOM adjusted their seasonal outlooks in response to the current NSW-centric summer, colouring Sydney et al in crimson red while leaving SA in blue.


Edited by teckert (30/01/2017 10:24)

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#1404476 - 30/01/2017 01:11 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
in regards to next sun/mon the three biggies, access,
gfs and ec are all on the same wagon singing a
similar tune and that's really saying something and
pretty significant this far out. totals have backed
off to something a bit more realistic and beliveable
but still significant for this time of year.

RS your situation hasn't changed.....yet. don't get too
upset about not getting your marrow burnt to a frazzle.
you're pretty much out on your own in this, most people
down there are enjoying the mild temps and mediterranian
weather while they watch everyone else swelter in what is
considered by most as horrible uncomfortable heat.
i really like hearing from you and what i'd really like
to see is you post more obs. about the sort of weather
you're getting rather than the weather you're not getting.
it's just the nature of the beast as far as where you
live and that little kalangadoo is one of the most dropdead
georgous out of the way slices of heaven i know of, and
you're lucky enough to live there.

TH

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#1404477 - 30/01/2017 02:34 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
Meh Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 209
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
most people
down there are enjoying the mild temps and mediterranian
weather while they watch everyone else swelter in what is
considered by most as horrible uncomfortable heat.

TH


If it was me, I'd be in a padded room by now for that very reason. Nothing Mediterranian about the weather in the LSE atm, to me Mediterranian means heat, sunshine and warm nights. See Athens, Malta, Tunis, Heraklion, Cyprus, Palermo. The complete antithesis to the LSE. Oceanic tripe would be a more appropriate description. I'm sure RS could not be more disgusted with the weather in his neck of the woods atm, being tormented by low 20's by the same airmass that is driving the heat in NSW atm. A real salt in the wounds situation.


Edited by teckert (30/01/2017 10:25)

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#1404478 - 30/01/2017 02:52 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Meh]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.


shows you are relying on one forecast to
make a rash and uncalled for statement or did you
use others and that was the only one that came
closest?
i used 3 models and 2 temperature forecasts to reply
to your post. obviously wave rider did similar
checking up on me.
where's your link to back up your gale force winds?.
in fact coming to think of it there's no forecast
that justifies your incessant derogatory foul
mouthed bs.
you're passionate about the weather which is
really god to see but when i read your posts it's
really sad to see you don't have the maturity,
wisdom, decorum and linguistic articulation to
match it.
it's just the same 'ol bs over and over becoming
tiresome and boring.
i find about 80% serious reality and 20% bs
works for me. i can tell you right now that
100% bs does not work for you.

2am and 30 here, looks like the aircon is going to
be on an all night bender.
nice blob of rain down south progged to hang around
down there for a while and when it's time to move
on up around sunrise progged to promptly evaporate
to nothing. somebody up there hates us. lol.
also it seems i was wrong about the change coming
through around sunrise, tim noonan last night said
it would actually be through around dawn.


TH



Edited by teckert (30/01/2017 10:27)

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#1404487 - 30/01/2017 08:10 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: ThD Ht]
Pooley72 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/01/2017
Posts: 36
Loc: Seacliff Park
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht

also it seems i was wrong about the change coming
through around sunrise, tim noonan last night said
it would actually be through around dawn.


Badoom tish grin
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#1404497 - 30/01/2017 09:57 Re: South Australian and Adelaide day to day forecasting [Re: Thunderstruck]
berga1987 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 337
Loc: Malvern, Adelaide, Aus
We've had a decade of sweltering summers and mild winters. Suck it up for a season all you thermophiles wink
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