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#1404504 - 30/01/2017 10:52 SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1644
Loc: Uleybury
Another potential of good rains are on the way with many maps now pegging a rain band for the first week in February all thanks to a tropical infeed, this feels like the most amount of tropical moisture invasions I've seen as we don't have those big dominating highs to keep them at bay.


EC sitting around 45-55mm
OCF 47mm
CMC goes the highest with 60-80mm, looks like up to 100 in areas as well.
GFS sits on the 25mm area.

I'll sit on 30mm for home for a general average.

With all this additional rain, Downy Mildew will become a massive problem for grape growers as well.

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#1404505 - 30/01/2017 10:55 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Not only downy/powdery mildew, but veraison will be commencing shortly, so we could then see botrytis issues.

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#1404509 - 30/01/2017 11:28 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1598
Loc: Bridgewater
i like rain

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#1404560 - 30/01/2017 15:37 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2076
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Definitely got a nice drink of rain down here in the SE around lunch time and it felt really like a tropical climate once the rain stopped it became really humid... it makes you wonder Teck why a downy mildew alert wasn't put out for grape and fruit growers as these muggy conditions will cause some headaches for the vineyards and apple orchards

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#1404608 - 30/01/2017 20:32 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
these models on this are like a terrier with a bone,
instabilty paramaters are starting to kick in already
this is looking really good, pity it wasn't saturday
instead of sunday as the main day, but i am seeing
things sliding forward a bit compared to a couple of
days ago by about 12hrs so fingers crossed for a bit
more.


TH
_________________________



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#1404619 - 30/01/2017 21:46 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2076
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
If the models hold together fingers crossed all areas see some activity Thunda

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#1404632 - 31/01/2017 04:38 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
things still not looking the greatest for you down there RS,
at this stage you're still looking at a bit of rain, a few
mils at best, the bottom half of the lower s.e. is right
on the bottom edge of the forecast area of rain, as one
heads north rain totals get higher with the main core of
rain totals still running vertically from victor harbour
to pt. augusta and wnw to ese through lower ep, adelaide
to upper s.e./lower mallee.
at this stage gfs has the rain coming in two lots,
the first lot on sunday is mainly upper ep-lower mid
north/northern suburbs-upper s.e./lower mallee orientated.
the second lot on monday is a narrower, heavier band and
is lower ep-lower yp-adelaide metro-upper s.e./lower mallee
again. the second rainband is associated with a mid
level trough.
so far still holding up nicely.

TH
_________________________



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#1404664 - 31/01/2017 10:29 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2076
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Oh well it seems the tap has been turned off for us but never mind it will allow us a few days to dry off after Mondays tropical downpour

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#1404668 - 31/01/2017 10:57 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Matt_30 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2008
Posts: 62
Loc: Adelaide
Bring it on, but I hope it does not come forward any further than it already has, as mentioned seems to have come forward around 12 hours. I have my engagement party on Saturday and it is very much an outdoor thing. But otherwise, bring the rain and humidity; loving it.

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#1404707 - 31/01/2017 15:06 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
If it's a Saturday evening do, think you are in trouble...

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#1404732 - 31/01/2017 18:00 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
don't throw your arms up in dispair yet RS,
models are always in a variable state of flux.
some parameters are hardcore days out, some are variable
right up to analysis, and others lie in between.
the trick is in trying to tease apart the knots.
they have diverged somewhat, one now showing you getting
an inch and another showing you getting nothing.
just stay cool and wait for things to get a couple
more days closer.
the hard core paramater is there's an infeed of moisture
with rain in most likly narrow band(s)
the variable is where.
the fun is you can scratch the surface or dive in
boots and all.
the secret is not to get too anal or upset, the models
follow the weather, not the other way around.
just heard amelia (s/p) on channel ten say our humid
weather is over and in virtually the same breath that
some places will be in for up to 60mm from sat to mon.
that's what happens when people have to blindly read
from a script and know not what they're saying.
never mind, that's pretty much on par for tv.

matt 30 you may have to engage a couple of marquees
for your party.

TH

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#1404734 - 31/01/2017 18:10 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Matt_30 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2008
Posts: 62
Loc: Adelaide
Yes, fortunately we have ordered a marquee and it is looking more likely to be needed. Things appeard to have been brought forward again.

Oh well, I do enjoy this tropical weather so bring it on, disappointed there won't be storms with this lot, but can't have everything.

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#1404735 - 31/01/2017 18:12 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: teckert]
Matt_30 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2008
Posts: 62
Loc: Adelaide
Originally Posted By: teckert
If it's a Saturday evening do, think you are in trouble...

It's afternoon/early evening, so it will be a very close run thing.

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#1404774 - 31/01/2017 22:20 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7099
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Maybe 30-50 mm, who knows.

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#1404776 - 31/01/2017 22:41 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: Matt_30]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 559
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Originally Posted By: Matt_30
Originally Posted By: teckert
If it's a Saturday evening do, think you are in trouble...

It's afternoon/early evening, so it will be a very close run thing.


I expect to be cycling home about that time lest it's pouring in the morning and I get whimpy ;-)



Edited by betsuin (31/01/2017 22:46)

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#1404782 - 01/02/2017 02:32 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: Matt_30]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
Originally Posted By: Matt_30
Yes, fortunately we have ordered a marquee and it is looking more likely to be needed. Things appeard to have been brought forward again.

Oh well, I do enjoy this tropical weather so bring it on, disappointed there won't be storms with this lot, but can't have everything.


yes mate they have come forward, 24hrs from the original
now, not an unusual occurrence by any means. it's a bit
like were heading toward the event and the event is
moving backward toward us at a lesser pace.
the delineation between bugger all and major dumpage is
as about as tight as one can get with broadscale rainbands.
trying to work out who's going to get what is like trying
to shoot a flying duck with a rifle although the trend
seems to have adelaide metro and anything on a wnw/ese
line as bullseye central. lucky us. i love this sort of
stuff and burying myself in these model updates i'm having
as much fun as a farm dog has rolling in fresh cowshit.
the other thing is you don't want storms, believe me,
i'll make a long story short............
one chrissy day many years ago my sister put on a huge
christmas dinner for about 20 family and i got up halfway
through and went stormchasing, when i got back she locked
me up in the doghouse and flushed the key down the toilet.
having storms gatecrash an event is not fun or pretty
for me or anyone else who's crazy about storms.
not only that but events can handle rain somewhat but
storms can ruin them.
btw, i see you don't post very much so if we don't hear
from you much after this before i forget congratulations
on your engagement and all the best for the future.

TH


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#1404803 - 01/02/2017 08:49 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17498
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
models still all over the place really. COuld be still quite dry on Saturday night yet...
EC this morning even has Sunday dry and then giving us 35mm on monday.... just wait a few more days yet for some consensus....

edit: GFS now also has majority rain on Monday... & Models going for a bit of a follow up on Wednesday as well..


Edited by teckert (01/02/2017 09:48)

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#1404835 - 01/02/2017 13:04 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2076
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
I checked Elders Weather app yesterday and contrary to what you said about me not throwing my arms up in despair rings true Thunda as it has Kalangadoo forecast to get between 10-20mm on Sunday and a further 1-5mm on Monday

Although the absence of any storm activity is a let down however we had a tropical downpour/dumper similar to this in 2010 that pretty much almost drowned Mount Gambier with 60-80mm of rain if my memory serves me correct although Thunda can correct me on that

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#1404837 - 01/02/2017 13:26 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: rstewart84]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14855
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
I checked Elders Weather app yesterday and contrary to what you said about me not throwing my arms up in despair rings true Thunda as it has Kalangadoo forecast to get between 10-20mm on Sunday and a further 1-5mm on Monday

Although the absence of any storm activity is a let down however we had a tropical downpour/dumper similar to this in 2010 that pretty much almost drowned Mount Gambier with 60-80mm of rain if my memory serves me correct although Thunda can correct me on that


Whatever the forecast, I would be deleting the elders app from your phone if I were you.

TS cool

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#1404852 - 01/02/2017 16:54 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2076
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Advice noted TS smile but i did cross reference all 3 weather apps i have on my phone and all 3 said 10-20 mm for Sunday and a follow up of 1-5mm Monday

Silver lining is that a lil bit of warmish weather coming up next week with 32 forecast for Wednesday hopefully it sticks around after a wet couple of days coming up

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