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#1404863 - 01/02/2017 18:02 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
yer things have backed off a bit as far as timing goes,
worse is the dropping down of the core of the rainband
to be running over KI at the moment, if this keeps up
it will be a non event for here, not that it matters
too much.
one thing of note is the small but consistent ramping
up of instability parameters as things approach closer.
other notables is the usual gobs of moisture, the
other not so obvious is the largely divergent mid and
upper level winds. for sunday mid north, eastern
ranges, riverland and mallee are a big 10 - 4 for
possible storms at the moment.
if were not going to get flooded out by rain then
the least the weather can do is wipe us off the map
with a decent storm. actually after what's happened
to s.a.over the last 6 months maybe i shouldn't use
the term "wipe us off the map" so loosely.

TH
_________________________



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#1404890 - 01/02/2017 22:30 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: Thunderstruck]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17531
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
I checked Elders Weather app yesterday and contrary to what you said about me not throwing my arms up in despair rings true Thunda as it has Kalangadoo forecast to get between 10-20mm on Sunday and a further 1-5mm on Monday

Although the absence of any storm activity is a let down however we had a tropical downpour/dumper similar to this in 2010 that pretty much almost drowned Mount Gambier with 60-80mm of rain if my memory serves me correct although Thunda can correct me on that


Whatever the forecast, I would be deleting the elders app from your phone if I were you.

TS cool


Pretty sure Elders just use WZ's feed and data.... while I wouldn't personally use it either as I have WZ's app, I'm not sure of the exact reasons why you would just suggest deletion?

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#1404922 - 02/02/2017 04:57 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
well after yesterdays run having the center of the rainband
seeing down through KI and lower s.e. it has now sawed back up
to the original forecast position. access and ec are largely in
agreeance of timing, position and amounts, gfs somewhat less
but really only in as much as monday goes. the general consensus
is were 'gunna git lacquered' big time.
considering gfs is forecasting the least amount of rain and
taking into account orographic effects some places in the
ranges could get 75-100mm, on the other end of the scale
could be 125ish,mm, even 75mm is man the sand bags stuff.
even though we're,(and i mean we're as in south of and east
of pt. augusta), still out of the ball park as far as storms
go at least we have been penciled into the menu. ep and
especially northern ep is pretty much foregone but
thunderstorm indices and parameters are still slowly moving
south and east on each run.

TH




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#1404971 - 02/02/2017 13:02 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
willitrainagain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/12/2011
Posts: 541
Loc: Mt Barker S.A.
Got yhe lawn fertiliser ready to go. Last time I did it we got 82mm and most of it washed down the street

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#1404991 - 02/02/2017 15:25 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2077
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Seems to have backed off big time for the LSE only forecast to get 5-10 mm in comparison to yesterday when it said 10-20 mm for Sunday and about 1-5 mm Monday but it may change again before sunday

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#1404992 - 02/02/2017 15:28 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: willitrainagain]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: willitrainagain
Got yhe lawn fertiliser ready to go. Last time I did it we got 82mm and most of it washed down the street


So that's why all the ducks in Mt Barker turned green lol


Edited by Jet entrance (02/02/2017 15:29)
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

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#1404993 - 02/02/2017 15:30 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: rstewart84]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
Seems to have backed off big time for the LSE only forecast to get 5-10 mm in comparison to yesterday when it said 10-20 mm for Sunday and about 1-5 mm Monday but it may change again before sunday


And it will no doubt change 15 more times before the event starts


Edited by Jet entrance (02/02/2017 15:30)
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1404994 - 02/02/2017 15:31 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: teckert
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
I checked Elders Weather app yesterday and contrary to what you said about me not throwing my arms up in despair rings true Thunda as it has Kalangadoo forecast to get between 10-20mm on Sunday and a further 1-5mm on Monday

Although the absence of any storm activity is a let down however we had a tropical downpour/dumper similar to this in 2010 that pretty much almost drowned Mount Gambier with 60-80mm of rain if my memory serves me correct although Thunda can correct me on that


Whatever the forecast, I would be deleting the elders app from your phone if I were you.

TS cool


Pretty sure Elders just use WZ's feed and data.... while I wouldn't personally use it either as I have WZ's app, I'm not sure of the exact reasons why you would just suggest deletion?


I agree with TS, Elders weather may use some of the WZ info but its an awful accurate guide to upcoming weather.

Don't they sell property anyway?? lol


Edited by Jet entrance (02/02/2017 15:32)
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1404995 - 02/02/2017 15:33 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
well after yesterdays run having the center of the rainband
seeing down through KI and lower s.e. it has now sawed back up
to the original forecast position. access and ec are largely in
agreeance of timing, position and amounts, gfs somewhat less
but really only in as much as monday goes. the general consensus
is were 'gunna git lacquered' big time.
considering gfs is forecasting the least amount of rain and
taking into account orographic effects some places in the
ranges could get 75-100mm, on the other end of the scale
could be 125ish,mm, even 75mm is man the sand bags stuff.
even though we're,(and i mean we're as in south of and east
of pt. augusta), still out of the ball park as far as storms
go at least we have been penciled into the menu. ep and
especially northern ep is pretty much foregone but
thunderstorm indices and parameters are still slowly moving
south and east on each run.

TH





Man the boats me one eyed padres!!!
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1405006 - 02/02/2017 16:50 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: Jet entrance]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17531
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
Originally Posted By: teckert
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Originally Posted By: rstewart84
I checked Elders Weather app yesterday and contrary to what you said about me not throwing my arms up in despair rings true Thunda as it has Kalangadoo forecast to get between 10-20mm on Sunday and a further 1-5mm on Monday

Although the absence of any storm activity is a let down however we had a tropical downpour/dumper similar to this in 2010 that pretty much almost drowned Mount Gambier with 60-80mm of rain if my memory serves me correct although Thunda can correct me on that


Whatever the forecast, I would be deleting the elders app from your phone if I were you.

TS cool


Pretty sure Elders just use WZ's feed and data.... while I wouldn't personally use it either as I have WZ's app, I'm not sure of the exact reasons why you would just suggest deletion?


I agree with TS, Elders weather may use some of the WZ info but its an awful accurate guide to upcoming weather.

Don't they sell property anyway?? lol


Sorry guys, but unless you are saying Weatherzone itself is awful you can't comment on Elders. WZ produces all the content on Elders weather based on their data and the BOM. What you see on Elders is exactly what you see on WZ.

Elders have been around for 175 years in the rural sector and have played a long term role in farming weather & business. The property side of it has been an extra service introduced later on.

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#1405007 - 02/02/2017 16:58 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
TranslucidusW Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 18/11/2003
Posts: 2662
Loc: Southern Adelaide
On Monday we might need to change our town to Floodelaide!!
_________________________
I don't know anything . . .
Sheidow Park Weather




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#1405009 - 02/02/2017 17:07 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: TranslucidusW]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1615
Loc: Bridgewater
Originally Posted By: TranslucidusW
On Monday we might need to change our town to Floodelaide!!


CFS now stands for country flooding service.

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#1405010 - 02/02/2017 17:08 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14871
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Elders are rubbish. Do you not rememember the long term forecasts for most of last year? AV will remind you.

TS cool

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#1405013 - 02/02/2017 17:19 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17531
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
yes I agree but did you not realise they come direct from WZ? My point is that they are EXACTLY the same as WZ.

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#1405014 - 02/02/2017 17:22 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17531
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Im not sure about flooding yet lol.... just need to look at latest GFS....

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#1405034 - 02/02/2017 19:09 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Latest GFS is terrible as far as other models go, hardly gives us anything. 5-10mm for the 4 days till Tuesday


Edited by Jet entrance (02/02/2017 19:13)
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1405035 - 02/02/2017 19:12 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: teckert]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 567
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Originally Posted By: teckert
yes I agree but did you not realise they come direct from WZ? My point is that they are EXACTLY the same as WZ.


Oops! lol, so we all just bagged the crap out of Weatherzone lol

Sorrry grin
_________________________
"When the storm starts,
The drops start dropping.
When the drops stop dropping
Then the storm starts stopping"
... Dr Seuss

Top
#1405039 - 02/02/2017 19:30 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3917
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
thats ok, they are a great bunch of guys, they're tough,
they can handle it.
gfs shows bugger all, just looked at access, i spat coffee all
over the keyboard, my eyeballs popped their sockets and
i went into immediate hyperventilation.
seriously....wtf.
one minute the models are agreeing with each other the
next minute they're bashing each other up.
ec appears to be sitting on the fence having a bet each way,
even if the setup does run the middle of the road it's still
going to be quite significant for some.
if it runs as gfs has it it will be a nice drop of rain for
the middle of summer to freshen up the garden and add to the tanks.
if it runs access way it's put yer heads between yer knees
and kiss yer butts goodbye.
i don't care, i'm lovin this, what ever happens better than
predictable, boaring and nothin' to talk about.
bring it on.

TH

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#1405046 - 02/02/2017 19:58 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1649
Loc: Uleybury
Access G Drowns us if it pulled through like that

To 9AM Sunday 10-20mm
To 9AM Monday 30-40mm
To 9AM Tuesday 60-80mm

Access R is similar to G

OCF:
Sat 9.0mm
Sun 30.0mm
Mon 19.0mm

EC 41mm

CMC has 50-80mm
GFS around 10mm

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#1405047 - 02/02/2017 19:59 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1649
Loc: Uleybury
First Downy Mildew warning out as well:


Downy Mildew Advice
IDS21003

Downy Mildew Advice for the Mount Lofty Ranges, Mid North, Riverland, Murraylands, Upper South East and Lower South East forecast districts
Issued at 6:03 pm CDT on Thursday 2 February 2017.

Horticulturalists and viticulturalists in the Mount Lofty Ranges, Mid North, Riverland, Murraylands and Upper South East forecast districts and parts of the Lower South East forecast district are advised that conditions during Sunday and Monday are conducive to an outbreak of downy mildew.

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