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#1405112 - 03/02/2017 10:36 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17432
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Models still vary way too much with this system...
CMC and ACCESS still going for a decent rainband through Sun-Mon with anything between 30-60mm, while GFS a bit hit or miss but still 15-35mm maybe.
EC has completely downgraded barely giving us 5-15mm...

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#1405117 - 03/02/2017 11:13 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Eevo Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2013
Posts: 1523
Loc: Bridgewater
for adel hills


ADFD 19-60mm
OCF 41mm
GFS 31mm


i call that pretty consistent.

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#1405119 - 03/02/2017 11:33 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14800
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Models have been incredibly inconsistent for this event. Ranging from 5-10mm to 160mm across the board. Dogs breakfast. Trend is more N atm, N burbs and Mid North etc seem to be getting best of the band and monstly on the monday.

TS cool

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#1405139 - 03/02/2017 15:11 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
nothing like everything shifting north to take the wind out
of ones sails, never mind it always was one of those too good
to be true scenarios, looks like anything south of the cbd
gets a little bit of leftover puke from the dogs brekky to
snack on, barely worth getting the rain guage out for.
gawler to pt. wakefield might get a nice bit of flooding again.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1405144 - 03/02/2017 16:01 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2051
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Wise and true words spoken by a wise Jedi Thunda it was pretty much too good to be true tropical set up if it had a bit of a bite to it rather than being indecisive and all over the place we might have seen a good set up that benefited everyone in terms of rainfall

Fingers cross when the next weather event comes it is a lot more of a better setup

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#1405147 - 03/02/2017 16:56 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Jet entrance Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 16/12/2015
Posts: 463
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Yep, all over red rover!! Adelaide lucky to see 5mm now.


Edited by teckert (03/02/2017 19:42)
Edit Reason: language

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#1405152 - 03/02/2017 17:11 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
thanks RS, it's just not worth getting upset about, it was
fun watching it and its still going to be fun watching it
as it unfolds as it happens wherever it happens. remember
the weather drives the models, not the other way around.
and to show how not upset i am i'm just going to find a
nice quiet dark corner, lay down, curl up into the fetal
position and sob uncontrollably. cry cry cry

TH

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#1405158 - 03/02/2017 17:34 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2051
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Know that feeling i feel like doing the same thing Thunda as this weather has been one big disappointment after another for my neck of the woods dating back to last years ball tearing weather event one will hope we see more decent weather events happening shortly

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#1405177 - 03/02/2017 19:42 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17432
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
Looks like about 30mm in total for the city. Sth burbs prob little less. Nth burbs a touch more. I'm expecting around the 35mm mark at my place.

Only light falls from tomorrow arvo through till Sunday night then heavier stuff should set in after dark Sunday, through Monday.

Really this is a very impressive event for February.

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#1405189 - 03/02/2017 21:25 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: ThD Ht]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6782
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: teckert
Really this is a very impressive event for February.

I remember there being a saying, something along the lines of "when I see it, I'll believe it!"...there are others, but I think this is fairly true too:

Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
it's just not worth getting upset about, it was fun watching it and its still going to be fun watching it as it unfolds as it happens wherever it happens. remember the weather drives the models, not the other way around.

smile

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#1405214 - 04/02/2017 06:56 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
ok.....
so were absolutely positively defiantly up for maybe a
slight chance of a possible storm.
sunday ain't lookin' too shabby atm.
other than the obvious stuff there appears to be three
paraell lines of convergance. even a dogs berkky is more
organised than this, at least it's in a bowl.
the whole setup looks like it's been cooked up in the mind
of someone who knows nothing about weather.
at least models have swung things back toward the south a
bit with a more usual and realistic starting in the south
and moving northward scenario.
need to keep a close eye on sundays storm potential though.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1405228 - 04/02/2017 08:20 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
poona Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/11/2005
Posts: 275
Loc: 5km NW COULTA Lower Eyre Penin...
Fairy strong persistent thunder just to our west moving in , quiet black, and not far away, looks like tropical moisture a plenty and embedded thunderstorms, will know soon enough.

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#1405231 - 04/02/2017 08:24 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
that's a bloody good little cell heading toward you, looks like
the bulk of the lightning is on the back edge.
jeeze it went up quick and it's fast moving, got me wondering
if it will make it across the gulfs now.

just had a closer look at direction, it appears to be the
front edge of a pool of moisture, if it makes it across the
gulf it 's going to t-bone adelaide.
this forum needs a weather heads up alert foghorn button.

TH

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#1405232 - 04/02/2017 08:29 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
teckert Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 27/05/2001
Posts: 17432
Loc: NE suburbs, Adelaide, South Au...
EC has it quite wet this arvo for Adelaide.... 5-10mm.

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#1405256 - 04/02/2017 10:41 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
it's moving slightly south of east but the bottom edge of
the core is dropping off giving the impression it's moving
east or even slightly north of.
touch and go whether i see anything significant.
thought it might pulse again but looking probably not at this
stage.
can see it on the horizon now, looking beasty.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1405262 - 04/02/2017 11:41 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6333
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Pretty quiet on this forum given this is approaching???:


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#1405267 - 04/02/2017 11:50 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3874
Loc: Reynella, S.A.
yer mate, nobody cares, well......almost nobody. poke
looks like it's starting to thin out now as it approaches,
that really shocks and surprises me.......not.

INCOMING RAINBAND.....ACTIVATE THE FORCEFIELD, RELEASE THE HOUNDS!!!!!!!!!

TH

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#1405274 - 04/02/2017 12:06 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1435
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Nullabor with 20mm, they'd be happy grin
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April 40mm to 0900 26th.

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#1405277 - 04/02/2017 12:31 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
rstewart84 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/01/2007
Posts: 2051
Loc: Kalangadoo,South Australia
Well the forecast has picked up about to 10 mm for the LSE tomorrow with a chance of thunderstorms in the late morning/early arvo no doubt it will only be the odd embedded rumble of thunder with rain followed by muggy conditions although one must not rule out possible lightning although its likely to be only CC stuff

The tropical like conditions will definitely play havoc on grape and fruit growers its a wonder a Downy Mildew Alert hasn't been put out for the LSE as there's one current for the USE

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#1405280 - 04/02/2017 12:53 Re: SA - Tropical infeed rain band Feb 3-7 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 473
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
A little bit of rain here now.

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