Page 6 of 9 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >
Topic Options
#1408046 - 17/02/2017 07:11 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24809
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
18mm over this three day event. Nothing more than a big downer.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

Top
#1408085 - 17/02/2017 10:35 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Chookie Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/03/2009
Posts: 1904
Loc: Kirwan
Let's hope we get a lot more with this cyclone

Top
#1408092 - 17/02/2017 11:18 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14156
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Yes Mick I recorded a grand total of 23mm. Bah hum bug.
Once again as per usual, diddled by the models (Wink, wink say no more)
_________________________
202mm April 2017
Best 156mm 19/5/17
Oct 143mm
2017 Total 836mm
2016 Total 649mm
2015 Total 375mm
2014 Total 1032mm
2013 Total 715mm







Top
#1408132 - 17/02/2017 14:44 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 461
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Models have been near on close to the totals we all got. So dunno what models your looking at SBT but the ones I looked at got it almost spot on. Obviously they cant do it exactly because of local geology but for the most part the models came through as a good indication. Said we would have 25 - 50 mm up this way and we got 49.1mm so not bad at all. Truth is Townsville is in a hell hole location so rain never accumulates down there like the models predict, mainly due to its geographic location. These things have to be taken in to consideration.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Oct 2017]: 304.4mm (Ave 74.9mm)
Sept 2017: 12.9mm (avg 35.6mm)
YTD 2017 1484.2mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

Top
#1408247 - 17/02/2017 23:47 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12595
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
61mm from this event in BG, I'm not complaining.

Would have been good to see some decent falls in the Ross River Dam catchment area though..
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

Top
#1408267 - 18/02/2017 08:07 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
I wanna see the dam empty. Bring it on.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

Top
#1408268 - 18/02/2017 08:09 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Ronfishes
Nice pics Trav, this is you mate:

http://www.kowanyama.qld.gov.au/our-environment/infrastructure-projects

Check out how flat is is in the pic... pretty sure even the airport goes under water there



Looks like the low wont come far East at all now:(
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

Top
#1408288 - 18/02/2017 10:19 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Ronfishes Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3285
Loc: Gordonvale
Yeah hopes exploded again lol. Be super tough chasing around there anyway.
_________________________
MTD: 260.6mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1653mm

Science doesn't care what you think.

Top
#1408414 - 18/02/2017 17:44 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
Thought I'd post this message here ... a bit sick of the WA and Broome members sledging QLD's weather. Doesn't usually happen during the TC forum. Must admit a bit disappointed. Even if there's doubt about the path etc, haven't seen such a level of sledging before. Do discuss the weather where it should be discussed.

I've been really sick for a number of weeks, thought I was getting better but just got a lot sicker. Have been watching, not always logging in as I have been feeling like sh*t&, therefore on the forum more than usual.

I think a New Year's resolution should be put in place for all members .... how about being a bit kinder to each other in 2017?

Negativity breeds negativity and makes the whole world unhappy.

If you're unhappy with anything, think on how you can change it for the better, not roll over and give up.

You may think what can I do about droughts and stuff ...

Climate change is real.

You want to change your lives and the lives of your children and grandchildren, lobby, write e-mails, persuade politicians and rule makers that you need action now.

OK had my rant for today, will now lie down in a cool, darkened room .................

PS Can't even drink at the moment, so that option isn't available


Edited by Rhubarb (18/02/2017 17:45)
_________________________
Rhubarb
Slightly damp!!

Rainfall
2017: May 19th: 46mm
2017: May 18th: 113 mm Whopee ..................
2017: May 17th: 22 mm
2017: To date: 642.5 mm
2016: 1,660 mm
2015: 430.5 mm

Top
#1408584 - 19/02/2017 14:52 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23545
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Ronfishes
Yeah hopes exploded again lol. Be super tough chasing around there anyway.


If its not hitting Karumba or Burketown then its basically impossible to chase. It is impossible to chase.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

Top
#1408632 - 19/02/2017 17:51 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Snappy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/03/2011
Posts: 45
Loc: Annandale
Odds on this thing splits.
_________________________
My Weather: http://www.users.on.net/~williamsmj/index.htm

Top
#1408702 - 19/02/2017 20:20 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Rhubarb]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24809
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Rhubarb
Thought I'd post this message here ... a bit sick of the WA and Broome members sledging QLD's weather. Doesn't usually happen during the TC forum. Must admit a bit disappointed. Even if there's doubt about the path etc, haven't seen such a level of sledging before. Do discuss the weather where it should be discussed.


its just sledging, hoping for a reply and a reason to argue. best to ignore it.

sadly another storm dies right over us. not sure what the issue is with storms not reaching the coast during daylight hours, but its really annoying!!
notice it cranked up again after it moved east of us.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

Top
#1408847 - 20/02/2017 10:13 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14156
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Models failed Townsville again. I got 5mm out of the 50mm predicted and the dam 8mm. They are bloody useless. Happy you got 50mm but that doesn't prove much except you are the exception and not the rule.

Total till 9.00am is a massive 5mm or 10% of predicted total from the models. Yay, sorry sarcasm switch malfunctioned, again.

We have a Cat 1 cyclone. Yay, (see sarcasm statement above) BoM prediction 7 to 8 cyclones for Qld this Wet Season, I guess 1 out of 7 isn't all that bad, it could have been none out of 7. With 6 weeks left in the Wet season we are rooted rainfall and cyclone wise. I'm calling it for a failed wet season, again.

Correction NT has a cyclone, it won't cross in to Qld according to BoM track map. Sigh so that's actually 0 out of 7 predicted. Bummer.


Edited by SBT (20/02/2017 10:17)
Edit Reason: Location of cyclone
_________________________
202mm April 2017
Best 156mm 19/5/17
Oct 143mm
2017 Total 836mm
2016 Total 649mm
2015 Total 375mm
2014 Total 1032mm
2013 Total 715mm







Top
#1408850 - 20/02/2017 10:39 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24809
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
you did better than i did, 2.4mm! yay grin
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

Top
#1408851 - 20/02/2017 10:41 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 461
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Models didnt fail at all. Cant blame models for the fact you didnt get much where as other areas of tsv reported close to modelled prediction. Models may well not be perfect but there far from useless. As someone that is clearly experienced on these forums should know rain in the townsville area is hit and miss in the best set up. A model cannot predict the total for your plot of land. Theres times Ive been in an area predicted for 100mm yet we miss it but few kms up the road gets it. Its frustrating but by no means did the model fail. I am not trying to start an arguement at all but just trying to put accross a logical angle of view as to why models do not fail in my opinion. You cannot sit there and tell me the models failed to predict rainfall. As I said they cannot predict what will fall in your very small area in the scale of things.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Oct 2017]: 304.4mm (Ave 74.9mm)
Sept 2017: 12.9mm (avg 35.6mm)
YTD 2017 1484.2mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

Top
#1408868 - 20/02/2017 13:14 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24809
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
pouring rain in the central suburbs atm, isolated cells popping up
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
September 2017 total - 1.4mm (11mm)
October 2017 total - 95.0mm (26mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 801.4mm (1122mm)

Top
#1408870 - 20/02/2017 13:19 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: SBT]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 335
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
Originally Posted By: SBT
Models failed Townsville again. I got 5mm out of the 50mm predicted and the dam 8mm. They are bloody useless. Happy you got 50mm but that doesn't prove much except you are the exception and not the rule.

Total till 9.00am is a massive 5mm or 10% of predicted total from the models. Yay, sorry sarcasm switch malfunctioned, again.

We have a Cat 1 cyclone. Yay, (see sarcasm statement above) BoM prediction 7 to 8 cyclones for Qld this Wet Season, I guess 1 out of 7 isn't all that bad, it could have been none out of 7. With 6 weeks left in the Wet season we are rooted rainfall and cyclone wise. I'm calling it for a failed wet season, again.

Correction NT has a cyclone, it won't cross in to Qld according to BoM track map. Sigh so that's actually 0 out of 7 predicted. Bummer.

The Water and the Land (WATL) web site provides rainfall forecast maps generated automatically by weather forecast models. Up to eight models are combined to produce the rainfall forecasts. Testing has shown that it easily outperforms a random guess or climatology, to at least five days ahead. This does not mean it is perfect - no forecast system ever will be - but it does mean that people can be confident that on average, the forecast will supply them information to help shape their decisions.
http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/about/about-forecast-rainfall.shtml#models


Edited by Red Watch (20/02/2017 13:20)

Top
#1408885 - 20/02/2017 15:25 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Sunny Showers Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2010
Posts: 260
Loc: Townsville.
Someone needs hosing down with a cool tap... Oops that's right, we have no water in Tsv and can't do that. Oh well. I agree the models did mostly ok with this one, just some of us were unlucky and not under any of the rain. 16mm for me. No biggie.

Nice convection popping up over Cape Cleveland and Mt Elliot this arvo. Not much good for us but it looks spectacular.

Top
#1408887 - 20/02/2017 16:10 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
TSVWeatherNerd Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 930
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Mundingb...
Happens every year that there isn't a lot of action in January and February - people start getting complacent, saying the season is a bust, etc. forgetting that the peak cyclone season in the Coral Sea isn't until March and April. Given the likelihood of an active MJO phase hitting our part of the world early in March and probably again around late March/early April, I'd say there's still a decent shot at a cyclone or two. Notably, some of the most powerful cyclones in recent years have occurred in March and April (Yasi being a notable exception). Have a look through the past cyclones to affect the Queensland east coast at http://www.australiasevereweather.com/tr...al_cyclones.htm and look at when they are most likely to make landfall.

I believe earlier in the season anything in the Coral Sea is more likely to be affected by vertical wind shear, or to be steered SE to the cyclone graveyard by frequent long-wave trough systems, but later in the season as the mid-latitude ridge moves north there is a greater likelihood of a prevailing deep easterly steering flow, which is why, I believe, cyclones in Western Australia are more likely to make landfall in Western Australia earlier in the season and less likely later.
_________________________
Weather Nerd Central, Mundingburra, Townsville



Top
#1408893 - 20/02/2017 16:58 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: SBT]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 115
SBT you are nothing if not consistent. Always with the same line of attacks at the models, and yet you jump on board when a model shows something you agree with. Gain some perspective.

Top
Page 6 of 9 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >


Who's Online
8 registered (Kino, Skysthelimit, WANDJINA G'vale, Colin Maitland, James Chambers, LightningGus, ThD Ht, 1 invisible), 322 Guests and 4 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
aurbina1, Justin Case
Forum Stats
29389 Members
32 Forums
23701 Topics
1466061 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image