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#1408977 - 21/02/2017 09:28 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 378
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Oops. I opened a can of worms. Sorry.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Mar 2017]: 227.4mm (Ave 330.1mm)
Feb 2017: 224.5mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 663.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1409017 - 21/02/2017 15:26 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
slipperyfish Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1145
Loc: Charters Towers
What a tease this radar is.

We usually get a reasonable drop from a NW feed, just seems to be dying on our doorstep.

Nice cell the other side of Sellhiem. Looks nasty from where I am.

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#1409030 - 21/02/2017 16:59 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24631
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Cells to north of charters look worse on radar
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
February 2017 total - 67.2mm (283mm)
March 2017 total - 165.4mm (197mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 496.2mm (1107mm)

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#1409033 - 21/02/2017 17:27 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
slipperyfish Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1145
Loc: Charters Towers
Yes Mick they are as black as six foot up a camels rear end.

We now need the flow to tend from the North now. Possible as there has been a slight shift in the wind direction.

Crossed fingers

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#1409087 - 21/02/2017 23:00 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23454
Loc: Townsville
Mid to late march our only chance now.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1409095 - 22/02/2017 06:56 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24631
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Another day of good weather conditions wasted. Amazing how the storms form in places where the flow for us was yesterday but dont form where we need them today. Just incredible.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
February 2017 total - 67.2mm (283mm)
March 2017 total - 165.4mm (197mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 496.2mm (1107mm)

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#1409119 - 22/02/2017 11:20 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
SBT Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/02/2007
Posts: 14102
Loc: Townsville Dry Tropics
Models produce possible scenarios, not what will happen, but what could happen. And this is the trap people fall into, they think what a model says this will happen and take it as gospel that a certain number of mms will fall in an area as per the models prediction. That is what I have said constantly for years.


Zero rainfall recorded for previous 24 hours.

Same old groundhog days of high heat and humidity and no storms. Solar is pumping out shed loads of watts which is being gobbled up by our aircons.
_________________________
173mm Mar 2017
Best 79mm 16/1/17
2017 Total 485mm
2016 Total 649mm
2015 Total 375mm







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#1409122 - 22/02/2017 11:56 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Online   content
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12413
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Drove out to Charters Towers yesterday, came back when those cells were around the Mingela area. There was some decent thunder, and the rain was torrential at points along the highway.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1409144 - 22/02/2017 16:58 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24631
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
bit different at my place RD, just 0.4mm
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
February 2017 total - 67.2mm (283mm)
March 2017 total - 165.4mm (197mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 496.2mm (1107mm)

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#1409173 - 22/02/2017 22:13 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: SBT]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 205
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: SBT
Models produce possible scenarios, not what will happen, but what could happen. And this is the trap people fall into, they think what a model says this will happen and take it as gospel that a certain number of mms will fall in an area as per the models prediction. That is what I have said constantly for years.


Zero rainfall recorded for previous 24 hours.

Same old groundhog days of high heat and humidity and no storms. Solar is pumping out shed loads of watts which is being gobbled up by our aircons.

Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attaching to forecasts.Human input is still required to pick the best possible forecast model to base the forecast upon, and anyone who takes the forecast literally needs to go to this website.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_forecasting

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#1409179 - 22/02/2017 23:37 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: SBT]
Sunny Showers Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2010
Posts: 238
Loc: Townsville.
Originally Posted By: SBT
Models produce possible scenarios, not what will happen, but what could happen. And this is the trap people fall into, they think what a model says this will happen and take it as gospel that a certain number of mms will fall in an area as per the models prediction. That is what I have said constantly for years.




With respect SBT, I know you have been a valued contributor to these threads for a long time and your contributions are generally worth a good read, however what you have said in your latest post seems contradictory to your previous ranty post, and it appears to paint a fairly accurate picture of your own expectations of the recently modeled rainfall forecasts, and then your subsequent disappointment when it didn't quite come off....again.

As you have correctly pointed out now, that what you have been constantly saying for years, weather forecasts and modeled predictions are not gospel, and expectations should not be set in stone around them, particularly as we have all come to learn for Townsville weather.
Thats good advice for weather noobs like me. When its in the gauge, then thats the rain we get, wherever we are. No guarantees.

Speaking of rain, its coming down in the Swamp at Idalia right now. I'll take that!



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#1409185 - 23/02/2017 08:50 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
slipperyfish Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1145
Loc: Charters Towers
30mm the night before last and another 8mm last night from a short but very heavy fall.

It is a funny season. It feels like it has been a good wet season but we still behind the average. I guess that is how it is after 5 years of nothing.🤔

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#1409197 - 23/02/2017 10:31 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 378
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
SBT, no one said the models are gospel however they are far from useless. EG notmally for my area we get more then forecasted daily amount. But thats not the models fault, its just the luck of the draw. I even said the models are not perfect. Even human inputted forecasts are far from perfect. But in my opinion saying the models are useless is irresponsible. I say because what if the situation happened that some noob vame in here and read your rants and took them literally and didnt look at the models or anything, as a result they missed a set up that was predicted near on accurate. The result being something bad. Models are there to best predict the weather so if they say your gonna get flooding rains or a cate 5 tc but it dont happen as expected, wouldnt you rather have prepared and it never happened to not preparing because you said the models are useless and you end up in deep trouble. So the fact is models can be very useful in giving you the best idea of what potentially could happen. Eg this morning tsv airport got 20mm yet watl predicted 1-5mm. Went over the predicted amount however thats not the models fault.


Edited by rainthisway (23/02/2017 10:32)
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Mar 2017]: 227.4mm (Ave 330.1mm)
Feb 2017: 224.5mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 663.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1409201 - 23/02/2017 11:22 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 920
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Geeeesss its pick on SBT day today..
Cant wait to read his reply post
smile
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1409209 - 23/02/2017 12:10 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: tsunami]
slipperyfish Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1145
Loc: Charters Towers
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Geeeesss its pick on SBT day today..
Cant wait to read his reply post
smile


We need rain Tsunami. Quick eek

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#1409213 - 23/02/2017 12:25 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
tsunami Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 920
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Yes slippery fish you do need rain. I have moved from townsville but still remember how much the weather used to test my patients. I used to get so angry.
Rain south. West. North. East. And everywhere but townsville grrrrr. BP going ip just thinking about it
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1409219 - 23/02/2017 13:15 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Raindammit Online   content
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12413
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
30mm to 9am in BG, just had another short sharp shower pass through.
_________________________
Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1409229 - 23/02/2017 14:00 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 378
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
Ive said it once and Ill say it again. Dry tropics. The hard fact is townsville is in a shocking spot geographically and has never and will never get as much rain as further north. Only reason we get half decent rain further north is because of the ranges. Without them we would prob be in townsvilles boat. It may have had odd days with more rainfall then up here but never will it have more annually. Its a fact no model or no pray or whatever can change. Yes you get good years but you will always get alot of low rainfall years. Its just the way it has been down there long before settlement and will be like it for long in to the future. Low rainfall years will out number high rainfall years. Without a decent low pressure system tsv will not get any decant falls. I dont know why anyone acts shocked when rain doesn't fall in tsv, its nothing new. I may not live down there but I always hope it rains alot down that way but as I said without a decent low pressure system like a TL or TC in the right location you wont get near as much as up here.

I am not picking on SBT, just giving my opinion on a certain attitude towards models and forecasting. I just believe saying models are useless is alittle irresponsible and inaccurate. I am entitled to my opinion as SBT is entitled to theres even if I believe there opinion is incorrect. If in the future they give the say opiniin I shall just roll my eyes and shake my head.


Edited by rainthisway (23/02/2017 14:08)
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Mar 2017]: 227.4mm (Ave 330.1mm)
Feb 2017: 224.5mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 663.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1409242 - 23/02/2017 15:50 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24631
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Just 0.4mm for me this morning. Far cry from 30mm 5km away. Very unstable SE flow atm, rare for us. even theses showers are rumbling out some thunder. Again all missing the burbs though. My grass is dying off and had to fill the pool tuesday, love 20mm right now
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
February 2017 total - 67.2mm (283mm)
March 2017 total - 165.4mm (197mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 496.2mm (1107mm)

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#1409247 - 23/02/2017 16:13 Re: North Queensland Wet Season - Cardwell to Bowen - February 2017 [Re: Raindammit]
slipperyfish Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/11/2011
Posts: 1145
Loc: Charters Towers
Yes Mick. A mate over near the airport only got 11mm and a place I was just at to the south of us had 46mm. All within 10km of each other.

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