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#1404623 - 30/01/2017 22:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3364
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yes Blowin, Those SST's are exactly why I think something ugly gona come along in the next 10 weeks. All this heat, air & water, going to climax into one big bang!
And the bloody ants building nests up high everywhere, even on our hill.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (30/01/2017 22:11)

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#1404624 - 30/01/2017 22:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3148
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Its just been so quiet in the Coral Sea, whether there's a climax or the trend continues..

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#1404626 - 30/01/2017 22:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: ozone doug]
wilyms Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 145
Loc: Roma, Qld
Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Yeah we got 5 days of over 40 deg coming up we seem to be in a cycle, A week over 40 then a week just under 40 . Getting to be a drag for me. Cant wait for winter lol.


Ergh. Hadn't checked the forecast for the next week.

Have only just moved back to Roma after 5 yrs away - had forgotten the oven like heat but still prefer it to hot and humid.

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#1404628 - 30/01/2017 22:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1193
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
We have an invasion of small brown frogs in our bathroom. Got 3 out of the bathtub the other morning plus another sneaky bugger hiding behind the hand towel. All I can gather from this is that the poor things are looking for moisture cause its bloody dry and is likely to stay that way for some time.

Mind you, if I think its dry now I only have to remind myself of 2013-14 when we had a grand total of just over 60mm from the start of Dec to mid March. Have never ever seen it as dry and desolate as it was then, makes the current 'dry' spell look Tully in the wet season!
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 364mm ytd

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#1404634 - 31/01/2017 06:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1194
Loc: Toowoomba
Any reason for optimism(for rain) has been totatally crushed this morning. Wonderful. I ask this question genuinly. Did anybody live through and remember the early to mid nineties? A brutal lesson in how cruel the weather can be.


Edited by Hopefull (31/01/2017 06:24)

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#1404636 - 31/01/2017 07:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3364
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Thats one massive donut hole over Southern QLD on the 8 day WATL chart.

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#1404638 - 31/01/2017 08:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 919
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Well well well, what 'ave we here?
Bom 10 day.
At least a bit of tropical low action, something to watch- will probably just steal all the moisture...


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#1404640 - 31/01/2017 08:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Blowin']
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2096
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I think we're in trouble this year. Significant cooling in the IO and warming in the PO. CFS has us in El-Nino again practically by April and is now playing with a moderate to strong Nino by October. The only thing that saved us last year was the huge IOD bringing rain events across the continent in winter. I don't see us getting another this year so it's likely we'll get end-to-end dry. I wouldn't mind another record warm autumn/winter though.

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#1404641 - 31/01/2017 08:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Golden State Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 202
Loc: Buderim
This is completely and utterly f**ked
_________________________
Just rain FFS

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#1404642 - 31/01/2017 08:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: paulcirrus]
Scott Hansen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/11/2015
Posts: 76
Loc: Aspley, Queensland
Hi Paulcirrus,

When Moreton is mentioned, it means the Moreton Bay districts mainly coastal which includes Brisbane, Brisbane South and North.
Hope this helps, wait to see what eventuates.
It is looking promising for the outlook 10+ days time. The only thing it may be further north than I anticipated. Wait and see.
_________________________
Scott Hansen
http://predictweather.net/blog

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#1404643 - 31/01/2017 08:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3364
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Usually its GFS sniffing out the possible systems early, for Access G to show that at 240hrs is interesting. At least its something to look at, probably gone in next few runs.

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#1404645 - 31/01/2017 08:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
I thought we were extremely lucky during the last el nino. As others said their were other factors that tempered its potential disastrous afeects. BUT, i think we are out of luck this year with the other factors ( as others have mentioned ) not being around. So i think i can see enough signs to say this year will be disastrous for rain ( That lack of it ) Should be great for Guyra snow though smile. But if i had a patch of dirt i would start planning for a dry period. I had been waiting for the sea temps to change in the east and central, but never really got to that classic nina look. The continuous above 30 C days and 24C nights in brissy at the moment are a classic sign that something isn't right. With a lead up to nina i have notice in summer it is much cooler in brissy with 28C days and 20C nights with continuous SE winds ( Usually making it quite overcast ) Anyway.....
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1404646 - 31/01/2017 08:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
paulcirrus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1541
Loc: Brisbane - Windsor
Those temps above are for a summer period btw
_________________________
If it's Flooded - FORGET IT

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#1404649 - 31/01/2017 09:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7018
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Usually its GFS sniffing out the possible systems early, for Access G to show that at 240hrs is interesting. At least its something to look at, probably gone in next few runs.


Sorry to be a downer but imo there's nothing even remotely interesting on that chart for us. An elongated trough over the far northern CS and gulf doesn't interest me the slightest when the broadscale pattern simply does not support it coming anywhere near us. In the case of that chart, big ridge still over the centre of the continent (will direct anything up north to the west like it has done for the past 2 months), and a strong front moving through Southern states which would push the eastern part of that trough out to sea.

The latest EC / GFS runs actually look worse than they did yesterday imo.

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#1404651 - 31/01/2017 09:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1790
Loc: Kingaroy
El Nino this year might put us in a better position for La Nina in 2018, the years from 1911 to 1916 come to mind.

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#1404656 - 31/01/2017 09:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1808
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all ,6 days at least for over 40/41 deg for me .Bit hard on my old dog on her last legs ,Have to keep us both in the air con and hydrated.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1404666 - 31/01/2017 10:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5214
Thanks for the welcome-backs Mamma Tus, Colin and everyone else smile

At least we're not alone with the heat. A number of places in the southeast of the country have either already broken, or are about to break all-time records for longest number of consecutive days of temps above thresholds such as 35 and 40C.
The duration of the severe heat in Scone in the NSW Hunter region and Canberra also look impressive (see below).

Still looks like groundhog day (or should I say groundhog week) for us as well with NAEFS indicating 90 to 100% probabilities of much hotter than normal conditions continuing right through to mid Jan, if not beyond.

Also below is a map showing the percentages of all the scenarios from a few of the ensembles dropping more than a total of 25mm of rain during the 2nd week of Jan:









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#1404679 - 31/01/2017 12:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Ken Kato]
DanubeRS Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/10/2010
Posts: 254
Loc: Ormiston, SE QLD
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Also below is a map showing the percentages of all the scenarios from a few of the ensembles dropping more than a total of 25mm of rain during the 2nd week of Jan:


I Think you mean Feb there Ken grin

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#1404680 - 31/01/2017 12:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1094
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
yep , he means feb. clearly Ken had too long off , we must not allow this again.

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#1404698 - 31/01/2017 13:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Delta-T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 40
Loc: Peachester
At the micro-scale one of my 5m tall tree ferns is a goner.



Ken (et al) I asked about finer grained rainfall maps a few weeks back. Specifically the 24 hour rainfall record that seems to part of all the Doppler Radars. The reason I was interested in those maps is the finest-grained maps I can find seem to be BOM's Climate Maps > Rainfall latest > Queensland which gives a best resolution of maybe 30-50ks it seems by just eye-balling them.

The Mt Stapleton radar > Rainfall > 24 Hour map looks to have a resolution an order of magnitude better.

So in theory these radar daily rainfall records, which one might assume are not being deleted, could be summed to make monthly maps and annual maps.

Apart from the mere interest factor they could be used as evidence of where is the true donut hole (at least for the year) and clear that one up. Plenty of contenders at the moment.

Many don't own an accurate gauge or keep daily records so a false-colour map would be a great resource to able to easily check the month to date or year to date rainfall and get a range that would be accurate enough. Or to look at the rainfall in the Wivenhoe Dam catchment area for since June, etc.

On the radar screen the range is cut off at 150km but that's better than nuttin.

I was prompted by my watching the rainfall just miss me for the last six months, but 20 km west they've really well. On top of the big area deficits for the last 12, 24 months etc for SEQ I reckon I'm down a bunch more (I should be at about 1800mm) but without a good gauge and scrupulous recording I can't tell for sure.

Surely I'm not the first to think of this. Has it been raised, rejected...? Shall I raise it? To whom? Should I forget about it?

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