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#1405547 - 05/02/2017 18:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 414
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Actually if you look at the upper levels for both GFS and EC they are somewhat similar with an amplifying upper trough through South Eastern Australia around the 7-10 day mark. Just GFS has the action up in QLD and EC has it in NSW developing an ECL on the Southern NSW coast. Low pressure troughing connected to that low may increase the chances of storms for our region. Which is better than ridging although bad for cyclones in the coral sea.
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#1405557 - 05/02/2017 19:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3063
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Holy Crap, next Sun 42C here, 43C in Gatton.
The big build up of heat before the crap hits the fan perhaps?
Been building for weeks, hurry up!

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#1405559 - 05/02/2017 19:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: BIG T]
Whisper Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 186
Loc: Gympie
Think I might buy one of those camels soon Big T as the tropical fish are starting to die in the tank as I cant keep the water cool enough for them.

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#1405560 - 05/02/2017 19:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1015
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
I know how u feel whisper. Issue over the last month is the lack of respite. Typically we get two to three days of heat , then a change to cool things , few showers etc then repeat. No cooling breaks at all. Must be brutal for the farmers trying to grow anything. No relief , no chance.

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#1405564 - 05/02/2017 19:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 2995
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
EC looks a bit interested as GFS. That would be best case scenario, wow that would be great for all. Still not too keen to get overly excited.


Edited by Steve O (05/02/2017 19:36)
Edit Reason: coastal slider

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#1405565 - 05/02/2017 19:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3063
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Great sunset.

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#1405571 - 05/02/2017 20:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Locke]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 867
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: Locke
Latest GFS run looks very interesting. In fact I've seen enough on the model runs in the past week to hold out hope for some rainfall event.

Its not as if the model runs over the past week have been locked in solid on dry conditions. There's been significant variability.


Yeah, something's up. Definitely a chance..
Look out New Zealand! Haha

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#1405579 - 05/02/2017 21:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4796
I made a short animation (see below) of the 7-14 day temp anomaly probability forecasts from all the past 00z runs of NAEFS dating back to the 15th of last month - check out just how little that hot signal has budged through that entire period especially in recent days.

In fact the maps have looked so identical on so many of the days that I've actually had to check the date of the model run to make sure I wasn't looking at a cached old copy of the map.

The latest model run is shown in the last frame of the animation - still no change at all with high probabilities of significant heat continuing through the period 7-14 days from now, most prounounced in northeastern QLD.
Any respite looks like being weak and short-lived through this period:



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#1405587 - 05/02/2017 22:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1015
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Bom run out of blue ink?

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#1405637 - 06/02/2017 07:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Colin Maitland Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/09/2009
Posts: 2421
Loc: North Brisbane ( Bracken Ridge...
All I can say is "Ground Hog Day" but in reverse to the movie as it was snowing. We must had a Wombat come out and summer is extended by 6 months (being a wombat instead of 6 weeks he gave us months) of extreme heat.
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#1405646 - 06/02/2017 08:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1366
Loc: Australia
When was it, 2004 or 2005 Brisbane had consecutive days above 40+, i'm curious if that was a similar pattern to what it is now. Im waiting for this happen again

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#1405657 - 06/02/2017 09:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6732
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
It's actually starting to look like the rain is going to have to come from a standard trough system during next week. The problem with that is that all season, those troughs have delivered nothing in the way of real rainfall north of Brisbane. I don't see why that should change now.

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#1405659 - 06/02/2017 09:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Golden State Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 199
Loc: Buderim
It's never going to end
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#1405660 - 06/02/2017 09:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
redbucket Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 287
Loc: Regency Downs, Lockyer Valley
It really does feel like groundhog day right now. Sad news about the crop losses in the LV, which will affect some vege prices for all of us in the coming weeks.

What I would give for a day of low cloud, drizzle, and 23degrees.....

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#1405672 - 06/02/2017 10:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Mega]
Bone Dry Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2017
Posts: 82
Loc: Wolvi
Quote:
It's actually starting to look like the rain is going to have to come from a standard trough system during next week.


If that actually happens, I'll eat my rain gauge.

Seriously though, the deterioration of forecast rainfall is well underway. Yesterday it was looking like 3 days of 70-80% of 1-5mm, now it's down to 1 day of 70% of nothing particularly meaningful for this time of the year.
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#1405674 - 06/02/2017 10:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
grayarea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/05/2007
Posts: 524
Loc: Doonan, Sunshine Coast
Surprised nobody has started a thread for this.
Endless dry? Never ending ridge?

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#1405731 - 06/02/2017 15:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 834
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Great animation Ken. NZ looks nice right about now. Toured the South Island of NZ a couple of weeks ago. 13 C for a high one day. Avg high for our visit was 16-18 C. Loved it!
If this weekend comes off, Warwick and surrounding areas could see all time record highs. frown
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#1405737 - 06/02/2017 16:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 75
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
Eye to Sky - spot on re comment for near extreme temperature for Warwick area for Sunday. If Warwick records the projected 41C on Sunday would see the highest Feb temp ever recorded here and possibly one of the highest ever recorded. Since 1 Dec 2016 to today Warwick has experienced 49 days above 30C of which 23 days above 35C. Maybe an extreme hot period for Warwick with the likelihood of another 6 days above 30 in store for us. Today presently nudging 36, with possibility of 37-38. Sat forecast 39, Sun 41.The country is parched. Warwick historically viewed as having a relatively "temperate" climate. Hope this episode passes as soon as possible but forecasts now showing continuation past the next weekend. No doubt many other locations in a similar if not worse situation. A scan of Sundays forecast maximums across Darling Downs, Maranoa and the South West showing some staggering numbers.

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#1405738 - 06/02/2017 16:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3063
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Max 38C just then, Sunday forecast of 42C, 43C for Gatton might see me just move into my big chest freezer accompanied by beer. LOL.
Going to be a very unpleasant Sunday.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (06/02/2017 16:15)

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#1405739 - 06/02/2017 16:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2017 [Archive] [Re: Seabreeze]
signalman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/03/2010
Posts: 75
Loc: Warwick (Qld)
How big is your freezer Elf.

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