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#1405777 - 06/02/2017 18:46 Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 997
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hey guys,
Thought I would get a thread going for the next
Phase of weather approaching. Looking potentially
Very warm 3-4 days ahead of a fairly cold summer
Blast, but has no tropical link so may be minimal
Rain?

Cheers

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#1405944 - 07/02/2017 18:21 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 997
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looking like we could receive our
Hottest couple of days so far coming up from
The look of the models

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#1405951 - 07/02/2017 19:00 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6548
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Dooga! - hopefully the previous days rain will have a chance to do some good before heat (luckily with little wind) arrives!

Here's GFS's take on temps in Vic over coming days:



Only a snifter of moisture mooted for the cool change following this heat. Typical of February.


Edited by Petros (07/02/2017 19:01)

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#1405991 - 07/02/2017 21:44 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2264
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
What Crazy weather middle summer yesterday was cool to cold night 12c and now warm night of 22c at 9.30pm..

Wound not surprise me Sunday another drop.

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#1406058 - 08/02/2017 08:31 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6109
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Blue line nth Tassie by Sunday pm on GFS and EC. Should be a great sleep Sunday night and probably Monday as well.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1406073 - 08/02/2017 09:38 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1803
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Starting today, next four days average max. 36.5C, hottest tomorrow @ 39C.

Goodbye ground moisture !

In a heavily tree'd Euc. forest y'day, after such a long dry spell the smell of euc. was magnificent, you could almost cut it with a knife.


Edited by samboz (08/02/2017 09:41)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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#1406089 - 08/02/2017 11:03 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6109
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Amazing Dew points around the state at the moment, interesting to see what they are by mid arvo once more mixing occcurs
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1406094 - 08/02/2017 11:26 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2264
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Only 26c at 11.15am seem afternoon a rise and looks like from tomorrow the jet stream from WA will bring rubbish clouds to SE Australia

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#1406161 - 08/02/2017 16:25 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 128
I'm stuck at work so can't see the models, does anyone know off hand when the change/temp drop is supposed to come through?

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#1406181 - 08/02/2017 16:57 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1803
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
G'day SG, can't see anything on radar but N winds,no sign of a close change even going W into S.A.

A S/W change is still off shore of WA & SA.

BOM forecast has it in SW Vic tonight.

Sorry can't help any better.
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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#1406184 - 08/02/2017 17:01 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 128
Thanks samboz, should have made it clear, from the forcarst there is a cool change tomorrow sometime pm.

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#1406204 - 08/02/2017 17:35 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 260
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Nudged 37C today here in Tarneit, currently hovering at 36.9C, humidity at 30%.

Could 40C be a chance tomorrow in some Melbourne suburbs?
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Wunderground

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#1406238 - 08/02/2017 20:04 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6109
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
IF the air dried out it would be hotter than 40 maybe.

31.7c for a high here, breeze seemed to increase as the day went but still the DP held. Pretty impressive. Going to be hot away from the coast for next few days. Blue line even closer to VIC Sunday night now. Going to be nice and cool.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1406327 - 09/02/2017 10:40 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6548
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Howling northerly here, already nudging 35C.

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#1406349 - 09/02/2017 14:18 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6109
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Amazing DP's given the high heat. If only a ripple of cooler air existed in the uppers. It would be on - ahhh dreams....
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1406356 - 09/02/2017 14:47 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6548
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Got to 39C here, wind has eased, more to WNW, allowing temp to settle back to 36C atm.

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#1406358 - 09/02/2017 15:01 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2264
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Got upto 40c by my outdoor temperature and airport reading is 39.5c at 3pm
very windy.


Edited by chasers addict (09/02/2017 15:01)

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#1406368 - 09/02/2017 15:32 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1803
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Saw 30C yesterday and today 34C, overcast and cooled a fraction at the mo'.

Earlier hot gusting N, typical drying day.

Below average BOM temps over the four hot days so far - (36.5C)
_________________________
Rain 2016-753.5mm.J-173mmF-5mmM-66mmA-32.5mmM-24mmJ-88mmJ-143mmA-17.5mmS-89.5mmO-53.5mmNov-61.5mmDec-26mmTOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM Rain 2017.Jan-9.5mmFeb-23mmMarch-49mmApril-40mmMay-12mmJune-12mmJuly-15mm Aug-36.5mm Sept-26mm Oct-18mm to 0900 20th.

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#1406370 - 09/02/2017 15:56 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6109
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Wife called, raining at my house. High DP's, ranges and a wind boundary look to have been enough to get through the epic cap.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1406378 - 09/02/2017 16:20 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2264
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Temp dropped to 37c from 40c as heavy rain last 10min

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