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#1405777 - 06/02/2017 18:46 Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 895
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hey guys,
Thought I would get a thread going for the next
Phase of weather approaching. Looking potentially
Very warm 3-4 days ahead of a fairly cold summer
Blast, but has no tropical link so may be minimal
Rain?

Cheers

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#1405944 - 07/02/2017 18:21 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 895
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Looking like we could receive our
Hottest couple of days so far coming up from
The look of the models

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#1405951 - 07/02/2017 19:00 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6369
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks Dooga! - hopefully the previous days rain will have a chance to do some good before heat (luckily with little wind) arrives!

Here's GFS's take on temps in Vic over coming days:



Only a snifter of moisture mooted for the cool change following this heat. Typical of February.


Edited by Petros (07/02/2017 19:01)

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#1405991 - 07/02/2017 21:44 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2178
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
What Crazy weather middle summer yesterday was cool to cold night 12c and now warm night of 22c at 9.30pm..

Wound not surprise me Sunday another drop.

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#1406058 - 08/02/2017 08:31 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Blue line nth Tassie by Sunday pm on GFS and EC. Should be a great sleep Sunday night and probably Monday as well.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1406073 - 08/02/2017 09:38 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Starting today, next four days average max. 36.5C, hottest tomorrow @ 39C.

Goodbye ground moisture !

In a heavily tree'd Euc. forest y'day, after such a long dry spell the smell of euc. was magnificent, you could almost cut it with a knife.


Edited by samboz (08/02/2017 09:41)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1406089 - 08/02/2017 11:03 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Amazing Dew points around the state at the moment, interesting to see what they are by mid arvo once more mixing occcurs
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1406094 - 08/02/2017 11:26 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2178
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Only 26c at 11.15am seem afternoon a rise and looks like from tomorrow the jet stream from WA will bring rubbish clouds to SE Australia

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#1406161 - 08/02/2017 16:25 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 128
I'm stuck at work so can't see the models, does anyone know off hand when the change/temp drop is supposed to come through?

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#1406181 - 08/02/2017 16:57 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
G'day SG, can't see anything on radar but N winds,no sign of a close change even going W into S.A.

A S/W change is still off shore of WA & SA.

BOM forecast has it in SW Vic tonight.

Sorry can't help any better.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1406184 - 08/02/2017 17:01 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
smeagols_ghost Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 128
Thanks samboz, should have made it clear, from the forcarst there is a cool change tomorrow sometime pm.

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#1406204 - 08/02/2017 17:35 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 249
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Nudged 37C today here in Tarneit, currently hovering at 36.9C, humidity at 30%.

Could 40C be a chance tomorrow in some Melbourne suburbs?
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Wunderground

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#1406238 - 08/02/2017 20:04 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
IF the air dried out it would be hotter than 40 maybe.

31.7c for a high here, breeze seemed to increase as the day went but still the DP held. Pretty impressive. Going to be hot away from the coast for next few days. Blue line even closer to VIC Sunday night now. Going to be nice and cool.
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#1406327 - 09/02/2017 10:40 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6369
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Howling northerly here, already nudging 35C.

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#1406349 - 09/02/2017 14:18 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Amazing DP's given the high heat. If only a ripple of cooler air existed in the uppers. It would be on - ahhh dreams....
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1406356 - 09/02/2017 14:47 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6369
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Got to 39C here, wind has eased, more to WNW, allowing temp to settle back to 36C atm.

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#1406358 - 09/02/2017 15:01 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2178
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Got upto 40c by my outdoor temperature and airport reading is 39.5c at 3pm
very windy.


Edited by chasers addict (09/02/2017 15:01)

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#1406368 - 09/02/2017 15:32 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Saw 30C yesterday and today 34C, overcast and cooled a fraction at the mo'.

Earlier hot gusting N, typical drying day.

Below average BOM temps over the four hot days so far - (36.5C)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1406370 - 09/02/2017 15:56 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Wife called, raining at my house. High DP's, ranges and a wind boundary look to have been enough to get through the epic cap.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1406378 - 09/02/2017 16:20 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2178
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Temp dropped to 37c from 40c as heavy rain last 10min

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#1406380 - 09/02/2017 16:21 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
The Fishman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2004
Posts: 1103
Loc: Always in the wrong place.
Watch the radar and it gives credibility to a forcefield 👌🏻 The movement starts as a NW flow and when it gets near the Metro border it shifts to flat westerly as thought it is on rails!
_________________________
26 November, 31 December 2009, 1 January, 11 February, 6 March, 2, 9 December 2010, December 24, 25 2011, October 27, 2014, January 3, 2016 (Kilmore and Lancefield)

Top 11 Storms in chronological order.

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#1406384 - 09/02/2017 16:29 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Weather_Viewer Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/09/2012
Posts: 249
Loc: Tarneit, VIC
Can report Big Rain droplets here in Melbourne around Windsor area.
_________________________
Wunderground

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#1406392 - 09/02/2017 17:23 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 895
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Saw 37c up here today with strong
North west winds which have now
Subsided. Still 33c and muggy!
Maybe we might see a shower or storm
Like the north central part of Victoria??

Think it will be a dry change here though!!

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#1406399 - 09/02/2017 17:54 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
A S/E change here 3/4hr ago, dropped to 30C, not to bad a day in the end.

Saw 46.9C at Walpeup X 57KPH wind on the Vic Obs.

Starting to cloud over, cooling down a little more.

Be good to see that rain forecast Sat/Sun stay firm (for a change).

(ACCESS giving chance of est. 10mm all up for Sat/Sun)


Edited by samboz (09/02/2017 18:02)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1406448 - 09/02/2017 21:26 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
36.4c with DP in high teens here. The "rain" that was reported earlier was enough to wet a windscreen, 0.0mm in the gauge,

Having said that when I cam home around the Mt Macedon Road exit from the Calder it was wet so given hot roads there must have been a pretty decent shower earlier.

19.7/16.8 now with SSE wind, was a degree cooler an hour ago. Expect low 30's and humid again tomorrow here at home.

Still looks like low to mid teens for a high Sunday and Monday - really looking forward to that.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1406474 - 09/02/2017 22:47 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Hey guys! Reporting from Belgrave. I'm back home in Melbourne after my epic trip to Canberra, Sydney and Newcastle via Albury/Wodonga! Two whole weeks interstate in NSW/ACT. I arrived back in Victoria on Tuesday night. smile

My report for yesterday...

Dipped to a comfortable low of 15.8C during the morning, followed by a hot, rather humid and mostly sunny top of 38.3C during the afternoon. Too bad I had to go out to Lilydale, Chirnside Park and Montrose during the afternoon, but it was cooler coming back up over Mount Dandenong. smile

Minimum and maximum temperatures for yesterday:

Scoresby - 13.7C / 35.4C
Ferny Creek - 13.4C / 31.1C
Coldstream - 13.1C / 35.6C

As for today...

Overnight low of 26.9C, followed by an afternoon top of 39.3C. Another punishingly hot, moderately humid, mostly sunny day.

It got windy sometime after midnight and stayed blustery for much of the day; not good that we had a TFB in place. I'm just glad we had some much-needed heavy rain a few days ago, but still not good! frown

The change swept in sometime after 4pm. Just before 5pm, we had a surprise shower/thunderstorm pass through! It sprung to life just east of the City, but was very, very fast-moving and weak, dying out as it swept overhead; in fact we had heavy rain with almost-clear skies overhead as the remnants of the main storm cloud raced east and vanished somewhere near Cardinia Reservoir and Emerald! Thus we enjoyed a sun shower! Nature can play some very funny tricks haha. grin

Very pleasant but humid outside, currently around 20C.

Edit: in regards to the heavy rainfall a few days ago: the frontal system that swept through on Sunday night into Monday morning dumped 59.0mm in total, just 3mm more than my rainfall total from the storms that slammed into Melbourne on December 29th last year! The peak rainfall rate my family observed was about 180mm/hr (no thunderstorms though). This should stave off the bushfire risk for the rest of the summer! smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (09/02/2017 22:56)

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#1406526 - 10/02/2017 09:49 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 16.9C, currently around 19C and mostly cloudy. Thank goodness for this very welcome break from the heat! smile

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#1406611 - 10/02/2017 15:38 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2178
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Now 41c at 3.30pm

Yesterday was 42c

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#1406645 - 10/02/2017 17:01 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My weather station is giving a false reading. Sure it's another hot and mostly sunny day, but the 36.5C high here in Belgrave seems incorrect based on the observations for other nearby spots around Melbourne. poke

Currently around 32C.

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#1406690 - 10/02/2017 20:38 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
31.9c for a high here today, very humid as well. Fog rolled up around 9am then sunny, bit of cloud including accas and small cu around 5-630pm now just a few accas and full moon coming up over Hanging Rock. I'll say it again - cant wait for Sunday.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1406762 - 11/02/2017 09:19 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Over the last 45 mins a reasonable looking little shower passed close by to my south. Not a drop here. Sky a little unstable looking, GFS gives encouragement for next couple of hours here. Fingers crossed.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1406783 - 11/02/2017 10:26 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 895
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
A beautiful mild southerly has moved in
Here this morning, still fairly warm but it's
Blown all that humidity away 😀 The air
Is a lot drier now!

Not sure how much rain we will get out of this
Event?? Maybe 5mm over the next few days
All up? Gee in looking forward to that crisp
Cooler air coming through👍🏻

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#1406784 - 11/02/2017 10:29 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 895
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Still looking fairly dry in the outlook no
Significant rain at all on the horizon!!
Another burst of 20mm would snuff this fire
Season for us I reckon.
Just as well there isn't any really hot weather
In the outlook either

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#1406800 - 11/02/2017 11:24 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
S here also dooga', very nice @ 25C. As usual the BOM weather forecast re rain for the weekend has pretty much halved, although ACCESS still gives us a chance if it doesn't pass to far to the S.

Holding green here much better than expected thanks to the much lower average temps of the last four days, another 20mm would work wonders here also d'.

Any Indian rain dancers available ?
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1406854 - 11/02/2017 13:08 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Lol none that I know of Samboz! poke

Overnight low of 16.6C, started out overcast this morning but it's now a pleasant, humid and mostly sunny day, currently around 26C. I'm so glad the worst summer heat is over and done with here in Melbourne, for the moment at least! smile

Looking forward to the gloriously warm weather next week, but not before tonight's cold blast, a chilling reminder that Antarctica is just over the horizon and that winter is coming lol. Hope we get a late thunderstorm when the cold front swings in; showers already appearing on radar over Tassie and off the coast of Southwest Victoria and Southeast SA. smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (11/02/2017 13:10)

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#1406990 - 11/02/2017 16:15 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Temperature all over the shop here. Got to 27.1 not long after 10 then cooled off for a few hours got to 27.4c a short while ago and is around 27 now. DP continues to be 17 or more. Some pretty crisp developing Cu to my SW atm and looks like showers further away to the north
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1407031 - 11/02/2017 17:37 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Maybe 28C here, calm, clouding up, some cells rocketed thru' to the E, one lightning strike N of Orbost + another near Stawell just now -

http://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=-36.8826;x=144.11;z=7;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1407046 - 11/02/2017 18:21 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Heard thunder minutes ago, way to W from here and N of the Latrobe Valley, reckon you might be hearing it dooga'.

Still have cells scooting E, nothing wet here.

Some more audible thunder now @ 1821hrs, heading this way I'd say.


Edited by samboz (11/02/2017 18:22)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1407061 - 11/02/2017 18:36 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Pretty heavy shower atm. YAY
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1407063 - 11/02/2017 18:37 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: samboz]
duckweather Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/12/2010
Posts: 2517
Loc: Wantirna, Vic
Gosh, nearly fell off my chair then with lightning overhead - wasn't expecting that. Skies mostly look blue outside with some grey cloud crazy
Cheers, Duck.

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#1407071 - 11/02/2017 18:56 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Another shower. Can I crack 1mm?
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1407074 - 11/02/2017 19:05 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: duckweather]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: duckweather
Gosh, nearly fell off my chair then with lightning overhead - wasn't expecting that. Skies mostly look blue outside with some grey cloud crazy
Cheers, Duck.


Yep, totally unexpected! Very sudden fast-moving thunderstorm that sprung to life just to our northwest! smile

The skies looked very dark and suspicious about 10 minutes beforehand, then at 6:37pm we had thunder! The storm just grazed us to the north and lasted only 10 minutes, so we only got light winds and sprinkling rain. The thunder and lightning were entertaining though, occurring on average once a minute! The storm finished with a potentially dangerous CG. smile

A moderately hot day here in Belgrave, with a top of 30.6C. Cool southerlies atm, currently around 21C. smile

Hope we get more stormy weather as the cold front moves into Melbourne! smile


Edited by aussiestormfreak (11/02/2017 19:05)

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#1407081 - 11/02/2017 19:15 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Couple of rumbles now but suns out and looks like nothing coming on radar
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1407101 - 11/02/2017 20:32 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Thunder passing to the S, just had a nice shower <5 mins though.

I want 10mm..........hic, have another..lol
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1407106 - 11/02/2017 20:41 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Sky still looking unstable and radar starting to pop with more showers. Until the cold air gets here we might have a window where these random showers keep popping.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1407110 - 11/02/2017 20:46 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Sale has power off, poss. Rosedale/Stratford also I'm told, must be lightning strike.


ps...Frogs finding it dry here, haven't heard then for 1 week +


Edited by samboz (11/02/2017 20:49)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1407118 - 11/02/2017 21:05 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Jeepers not many strikes gotta be unlucky that one hit something to cause an outage.

A few snaps as I am desperate to photograph anything. Also learnt I really need to clean my camera, apologies for the dust bunnies everywhere.

Amazingly this diffuse weak looking sky was rumbling



To the NW, a still weak but marginally better looking cell briefly got up.



Finally a rainbow off to the ENE, hope the Springsteen crowd next to Hanging Rock (right side of shot) stay dry tonight and enjoyed the brief hosing earlier.





_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1407158 - 12/02/2017 08:33 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Heaven here, cold blustery with some scattered showers, could be excused thinking it was Winter @ round 15C atm.

1.5mm so far, grass has held colour, and thereby much more fire safe, over the last four days that were BOM forecast to average 36.5C.

Thanks for the pics Ruckle, re thunder, it's quite surprising how far the sound travels, regularly note thunder/lightning noise from 30km away.

Hoping today lives up to your hopes, I like it like this also.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1407195 - 12/02/2017 10:53 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 190
Loc: Renmark
Looks like you guys will get your eternal wish of winter in summer looking at the charts. 100% purile.

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#1407203 - 12/02/2017 11:12 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2178
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
What winter like of of 15c at 11am and was 36c yesterday of 21c drop difference.

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#1407207 - 12/02/2017 11:27 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Up to 11.6c now! Another line of showers coming now though. At 845 we got to 9.7c with some mist. Breeze just starting to rise so the promised windy conditions should start to fill in from west to east now.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1407307 - 12/02/2017 14:20 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Breezy, was 19C, dropped to <18C now.

Wish it was this cool for the NSW country getting fires at the mo'.
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1407313 - 12/02/2017 14:35 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Huge fire(s) - big front(s)- NSW

One bit here - blob:https://www.facebook.com/62e90b82-48f3-497b-9154-15d789254a68
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1407344 - 12/02/2017 15:52 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 895
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yeah samboz there was a cell that developed
North of moe yesterday arvo that had a bit
Of cg to it and a few rumbles, but it was to
The north of my place.

Wow back to winter today lol 10c this morning
With showers passing through and a cold wind!!
(Lazy wind)
Hair drier had now been turned on and showers
Have backed right off! Currently 14c!!

Will go and check the Guage now

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#1407384 - 12/02/2017 17:18 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 895
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
3mm so far for this event, we should hopeful
Pick up another couple of mm in the south west
Airstream??

Thought I'd track the temp as a passing shower
Moved through at 4:30 this arvo.

It was 14.6c when the shower started and in
The 5min it lasted, the temp dropped to 11.5c
Not a bad cold airmass for middle of feb lol

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#1407385 - 12/02/2017 17:18 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: Galaxyman]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: Galaxyman
Looks like you guys will get your eternal wish of winter in summer looking at the charts. 100% purile.


Well at least many of us Victorians are enjoying this very, VERY welcome reprieve from the bushfire risk that poor NSW and Queensland sadly have to deal with. Because I live in a particularly high risk area I've had enough of hot, dry weather forever; if the mercury has to go above 35C or even 40C then the air had better be sultry, preferably with storms and heavy rainfall. Herp de derp! mad frown

Anyway...

My coldest day for the year, with a high of only 19.4C, following an overnight low of 13.3C. smile

Not much in the way of rainfall though, had a few brief heavy showers earlier this morning, dropping 2.1mm. A few more showers rolled through as the day progressed, with another 1.1mm collected. The day started out mostly cloudy, but sunshine became more prevalent from lunchtime onwards. smile

The wind felt quite brisk though, but it beats searing heat! smile

Currently around 17C. Looking forward to the more pleasing summer weather that's expected this coming week! smile

Edit: amendment to my previous post, it was actually 30.8C here in Belgrave yesterday, not 30.6C. Sorry for the typo lol. poke


Edited by aussiestormfreak (12/02/2017 17:23)

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#1407386 - 12/02/2017 17:30 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6369
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Nice photos Ruckle.

We had thunder/rain twice last night in the most unexpected (non-impressive) bleak stratus sky.

The 2nd storm (circa 1030pm) produced a single "cracker" thunder -out of the blue (no rumbling precursors) - that had most of the town talking about today.

Re lights out in Sale last evening, apparently an unlucky lighting strike at a substation in Sale, acc. to a family source.

Ruckle - you were spot on with your "cold blue line" prognosis for today several days ago. ....it got very cold under the odd light shower in brisk SW'ly working up at Royal Maffra this arvo!

We got 3.5mm here past 24hrs, nice addition to last weeks 24mm given it is February!

Blue line snap:


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#1407395 - 12/02/2017 18:13 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
2.4mm all up from yesterday evening and today am, wind less than anticipated as it had a bit more W in it and we are somewhat sheltered from that direction. 17.2 for a high. Welcome DP down to 4
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1407419 - 12/02/2017 21:19 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: Galaxyman]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 1484
Loc: Between Maffra & the Mountains...
Originally Posted By: Galaxyman
Looks like you guys will get your eternal wish of winter in summer looking at the charts. 100% purile.


Being a country hick I had to google Purile, it says -

"Puerile in a Sentence. Since my son is thirty-three years of age, I do not find his puerile behavior amusing. Your jokes are puerile and not appropriate for a woman of your years. If you behave in a puerile manner during a job interview, the interviewer will think you are very childish."



Reached the max of 21C here this arvo' round 1700hrs'ish when the cloud cleared for a while, throughly enjoyed our day of Winter in February with 2.5mm out of the event.






Edited by samboz (12/02/2017 21:28)
_________________________
Rain total 2016 - 753.5mm.
J-173mm. F-5mm. M-66mm. A-32.5mm. M-24mm
J-88mm. J-143mm. A-17.5mm. S-89.5mm. O-53.5mm.
Nov-61.5mm. Dec - 26mm TOTAL 2016 - 779.5MM
Rain 2017. Jan-9.5mm. Feb-23mm. March-49mm
April-40mm. May-9mm to 0900 29th.

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#1407461 - 13/02/2017 09:13 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 12.2C, currently around 14C. Cloudy and showery. Collected 2.1mm of rain for the past 24 hours. smile

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#1407485 - 13/02/2017 12:29 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2178
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks to High Pressure pattern changed to let more SW winds and looks like be colder this weekend coming.

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#1407499 - 13/02/2017 13:34 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: chasers addict]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Thanks to High Pressure pattern changed to let more SW winds and looks like be colder this weekend coming.


You can say that again Chasers Addict! I'm enjoying this reprieve from the unwelcome summer heatwaves and bushfire risk. Just wish a trough would swing down from the north and bring some instability and convection; I need at least one severe thunderstorm outbreak before summer comes to an end thank you. smile

Noticeably warmer today than yesterday, should be able to make it to around 20C this arvo. Currently around 19C, mostly cloudy but with sunny breaks. smile

Had a few more showers this morning, with another 1.1mm of rain since 9am. smile

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#1407544 - 13/02/2017 17:55 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6369
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Strong N/Westly last night became a strong S/W'ly with a trace of rain this morning. I recorded a top temp of 23C here (which may have been the temp this time last evening.

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#1407560 - 13/02/2017 18:57 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 895
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Another 9mm here overnight and this morning
👍🏻 12mm for this event which was due to
Persistent showers all night!

Still very windy and cool up here

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#1407584 - 13/02/2017 20:05 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6071
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Just some brief non measurable mizzle here (including 5 minutes ago). Max today 19.3c.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1407597 - 13/02/2017 21:14 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a mild, party cloudy 21.8C in the end here in Belgrave. The breeze was coolish but the Sun was pleasant. smile

Currently around 16C.

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#1407626 - 14/02/2017 07:26 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Overnight low of 11.4C, currently around 12C. A chilly, mostly cloudy start to the day. Brrr...

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#1407710 - 14/02/2017 19:05 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6369
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mizzle here this morning, all the way to Loy Yang. Late arvo abatement of a cool WSW'ly here allowed a max temp of 25 C - only got to 21C at Loy Yang when I left.

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#1407735 - 14/02/2017 21:38 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 5647
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached a mild top of 21.5C here in Belgrave today, but it was late-coming, not reaching that mark until around 5pm. poke

A mostly cloudy day while I was back at work in Boronia, with a few more showers about (an additional 1mm of rain collected here at home btw). Very low cloud about the Dandenong Ranges this morning! But we did get lengthy sunny breaks as the day progressed though, with skies clear to the north of the Great Dividing Range beyond the Yarra Valley by the time I left work for home around mid-arvo. smile

Mostly clear skies from dinnertime onwards, with a lovely sunset in Ferntree Gully. smile

Currently around 12C.

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#1408840 - 20/02/2017 09:15 Re: Potentially very warm conditions ahead of a cold showery change 7/2 - 13/2 [Re: doogasnow]
Moz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/01/2013
Posts: 140
Loc: Melbourne - SE Suburbs
..Hit the sack with 6mms in the bank, woke up with 18mms.

Caught up in a traditional SW'strly stream of coldies, some decently heavy rainfall when caught underneath them

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