Loc: Semaphore SA
Originally Posted By: Jet entrance
Given what I'm seeing on latest model runs, tomorrows temp will be bumped up across the board by 2 or 3 deg.
I'd say 43 or 44 for Adelaide
I like your anti-establishment gusto and conviction in your own forecasting Jet.
Here's the nice BOM lady to tell us why this is happening (for those of us who don't already know)
I don't think it'll quite make the forecast. Just shy of 41 for me - although it'll feel just like it or worse. (used meteoearth, the dragonflies and my gutfeel for my prediction- the Chris model is always meteoearth - gutfeel and an animal)
Cracked 44.4ºC here today (yep folks, that's in a BoM issued (albeit, old) screen). Backyard temp according to the Davis wx station hit 47ºC, but that's in a rather enclosed space and highly understandable why it records higher.
Bit of cloud starting to drift down from the north. You can feel the relief every time one little puffy covers the sun. Gimme more of that please, especially tomorrow.
...and finally, Moderator hat on... please play nice fellas. It's too damned hot to have disagreements.
2017 YTD - 67.8mm Yearly Average - 403mm Jan - 32.8mm (10mm) / Feb - 35.0mm (10mm) / Mar - - (15mm) / Apr - - (31mm) May - - (46mm) / June - - (51mm) / July - - (59mm) / Aug - - (54mm) Sept - - (48mm) / Oct - - (38mm) / Nov - - (23mm) / Dec - - (18mm) Total 2016 - 637.2mm
Loc: North Brighton, SA
Tomorrow's forecast by the BOM for Adelaide could well be right. A weak surface trough will give the coastal areas some relief tomorrow and that will just influence the city enough to hold the temp down to 41, yes "down" to 41 lol.
Edited by Jet entrance (08/02/201717:44)
“I hate it when somebody comes to your front door and puts their finger over the peephole . . . so to get around that I've got eleven peepholes”. Elliot Goblet
It's good to see you back G-man. So glad you're finally getting the weather you want. Enjoy every second of it mate, because you moved to Renmark to experience this kind of weather.
PS: Yeah 49°C is much much easier to reach than 50°C, even though they're only a degree apart. 49 is pretty well the limit our landmass can hold, it takes extraordinary circumstances to go higher. And I think 925mb temps are better guideline of what the weather will be like rather 850mb temps. You can generally add 10 or even 11°C to those temps and that will be very close to your maximum. So 37°C 925mb temps should equal about 47°C or even 48°C at Renmark.
Thanks dude! Latest GFS update is 100% epic for tomorrow. 4pm 85hpa temps are at 30C and even a patch of 31C just to the NW. 925hpa is at 38C. At 4pm today, these values are 26C and 33 respectively. Today it officially hit 43C so in theory tomorrow could hit at least 47C.
Some of the locations which hit 46C today (i.e. Roxby Downs, Woomera) did it with 36C 925hpa temps and 28-29C 850 temps.
BOM still going for "only" 45C, if GFS comes off it will surely be more. They almost certainly will get the 44C for Mildura wrong, I mean at the latest update it is 43.5C there and the 925/850 temps tomorrow are progged to be 4C warmer.