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#1406789 - 11/02/2017 10:41 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
wow StL, how cool is that, a cone with too much icecream.
great capture.

yer Tek i looked for it on gfs and others but was still
scratching my head over it.
the mid and upper divergance is crazy south of adelaide today.
300hpa winds are also converging into a bit of an upper trough
as well.
we already got stuff going up over southern ep again.
the northern inversion is dispersing well.
gfs has the divergance/trough line south of us and moving
north as the avo progresses into evening.
convective indexes like LIs and CAPE are non existant for any
southern stuff, anything that goes up is through forcing from
2 ways, being dragged kicking and screaming by the scruff of
the neck from above and getting a size 12 boot up the clacker
from below.
just out of interest i measured the angle of attack of those
cells over southern ep, they are making a beeline straight for
the southern burbs, not that i'm concerned about those cells,
its the steering winds i'm interested in and referencing them
with model predictions. i drew a line on my screen and then
referenced that line over the model streamlines.
BSCH gfs has steering winds slightly more to the NW which if
was correct would have those cells going through victor
harbour.
other WZ models including gfs are on the money which for me
confirmed their accuracy as far as winds go and now means
that they can be relied on in reference to this arvo and
this evening.
it also means that in the possibility that something does
go up on lower ep i can cross reference it to the steering
line and work out well in advance where i might want to be.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1406812 - 11/02/2017 11:42 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
betsuin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/04/2010
Posts: 465
Loc: Magill, Adelaide
Saturday 11 February 11:12:17 ACDT 2017
SHT15: Temperature = 29.34 C, Humidity = 59.76 %, Dewpoint = 20.70 C
Baro Temperature: 29.83 C | Pressure: 991.70 hPa

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#1406822 - 11/02/2017 12:05 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
took a reading with my aspirated psychrometer a little while
ago. 27.2, 61%RH equates to 19DP.
at the time noarlunga aws was 23.something and 61%.

quick check weatherzone layers visible sat, just noticed
another cloud wave anomoly over ceduna.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1406834 - 11/02/2017 12:35 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1573
Loc: Uleybury
Managed a few captures last night:

Bolt 1-0851 by Kyle Howard, on Flickr

Bolt 3-0860 by Kyle Howard, on Flickr

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#1406852 - 11/02/2017 13:06 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
great stuff kyle, certainly live up to your nik, glad to see
someone was on the ball, looking pretty good quality lightning
too.
was there any pulsing or just single flashes?

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1406882 - 11/02/2017 13:54 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
StormCapture Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2013
Posts: 1573
Loc: Uleybury
Cheers TH,

Most were single flashes, some were Pulsers mostly to the SW

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#1406903 - 11/02/2017 14:19 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Markus Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/12/2010
Posts: 2026
Loc: Clare, SA
Convection firing on the northern lofties/flinders, hopefully there's some storms around to ease the pain of this heatwave. See if it can mix out enough for something half decent, will probably struggle.
_________________________
My Blogging site.

http://markdawsonphoto.wordpress.com/

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#1406940 - 11/02/2017 15:02 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Galaxyman Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/01/2016
Posts: 181
Loc: Renmark
Had a few rumbles, flashes and a shower around 3.30-4.00am. Nothing special but a bonus considering the forecast said "clear".

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#1406984 - 11/02/2017 15:57 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6735
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Central Hills 5-10 degrees cooler than the plains last couple of days...something I didn't realise was possible with north-easterly wind from a heat trough. Probably some other local microclimatic factors involved judging by the magnitude of difference.
_________________________
Only the most naive gamblers bet against physics, and only the most irresponsible bet with their grandchildrens resources.

-- William H. Calvin.

[A quote about abrupt weather pattern changes occurring within decades.]

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#1406995 - 11/02/2017 16:24 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: Markus]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
Originally Posted By: Markus
Convection firing on the northern lofties/flinders, hopefully there's some storms around to ease the pain of this heatwave. See if it can mix out enough for something half decent, will probably struggle.


i think the emphasis will be on struggle.
up there forecast soundings where convection is possible
there is a concrete cap of around 6-7
where there is a decent lesser cap convection is not possible
'os the uppers go way too hot too quick.
the best chance appears to be down near the riverland where
there is lesser cap AND cooler uppers to allow for convection
up to around 30thou' but the window of opportunity is narrow.
looking at the sat it appears the cells around flinders to
broken hill are in the area of little or no cap and are
convecting up to where the hot uppers start, going by
forecast soundings about 14thou' cloud base to about
17-18thou' tops.
the clear area around the mid north and iron triangle
is where ther is some LI and CAPE but it's also where the
cap is and so no convection is taking place at all.
the thing is with this particular type of cap is not just
the temp, it's the thickness, it runs from around 2thou'
to 10thou' and with lcl running around 6,5thou' is why
there's no cloud there.
that's to the best of what i know, if something does go up
there then i'm gunna have to shirt front TS and ask him
why 'os it'll have me stuffed.
that stuff poking down toward morgan is looking for the
best chance.

TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

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#1407012 - 11/02/2017 16:41 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: split_city]
berga1987 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/08/2010
Posts: 320
Loc: Malvern, Adelaide, Aus
Originally Posted By: split_city
Wife just told me about the lightning here but I slept through the whole thing. Guess lack of sleep from a newborn will do that to you.


Right... Do I need to go get a psych evaluation to make sure I am not somehow a split personality named split_city who logs in and posts things grin

Exactly the same scenario here last night. Wife told me in the morning there was quiet the lightning show last night, but I was sleeping my shift due to new born.

Congrats, btw.
_________________________
I wish Mt Lofty was more lofty, another 2km or so would suffice.

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#1407078 - 11/02/2017 19:09 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 749
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
I can tolerate the heat during the day, and only just tolerate the humidity too, but not liking these hot nights.

Maximum temps here in Gulfview Heights.

Feb 8: 42.8C
Feb 9: 41.3C
Feb 10: 39.4C
Feb 11: 34.7C
_________________________
My Stuff on the Web
www.ryanhothersall.net

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#1407114 - 11/02/2017 21:01 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: Seira]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6735
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)
Central Hills 5-10 degrees cooler than the plains last couple of days...something I didn't realise was possible with north-easterly wind from a heat trough. Probably some other local microclimatic factors involved judging by the magnitude of difference.

Ironically, think it was Sky News recently, but not sure...anyway, whoever they were (forecast news service) they forecasted 33 for the Central Hills (yesterday), when it turned out to be 5 degrees higher...apparently continued to mention the figure even when it was clearly not being observed...oh well, I guess don't rely on one source is the moral of the story smile . Grain of salt stuff...until the weather patterns are better understood.


Edited by -Cosmic- (naz) (11/02/2017 21:02)
_________________________
Only the most naive gamblers bet against physics, and only the most irresponsible bet with their grandchildrens resources.

-- William H. Calvin.

[A quote about abrupt weather pattern changes occurring within decades.]

Top
#1407131 - 11/02/2017 22:19 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Ryan Hothersall Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2009
Posts: 749
Loc: Gulfview Heights, South Austra...
temp now back to a more comfortable 21C here in Gulfview Heights.

Plus, the breeze from the ESE has picked up a bit, time to open up the house.
_________________________
My Stuff on the Web
www.ryanhothersall.net

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#1407144 - 12/02/2017 05:21 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: Seira]
ThD Ht Offline
Weatherzone ratbag

Registered: 02/03/2002
Posts: 3839
Loc: Reynella
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)

Ironically, think it was Sky News recently, but not sure...anyway, whoever they were (forecast news service) they forecasted 33 for the Central Hills (yesterday), when it turned out to be 5 degrees higher...apparently continued to mention the figure even when it was clearly not being observed...oh well, I guess don't rely on one source is the moral of the story smile . Grain of salt stuff...until the weather patterns are better understood.


unfortunatly even in this day and age of high speed
everything tv news and weather services seem to be
notoriously slow to react to changing situations, even
with bushfire and pending short term severe weather events,
although things are slowly on the improve, a situation
like yours is probably a little less clear cut in regards
to importance, extremely important to you and others
affected, not so important in the big picture of entire
australia, bit hard to watch every microscale change or
anomaly happening every where and updating in near real
time. it's a matter of priorities and resources, i'm
sitting on the fence here and i can see and understand
what you're saying but i can also see their situation as
well. you simply cant build an Eiffel tower with a hundred
bucks and a few bits of steel.


TH
_________________________
it doesn't matter if you're 7 years old or 70 years old, a world leader or a lowly battler,
respect can only ever be earned, it can never be commanded.
TH - 1980s

Top
#1407154 - 12/02/2017 08:13 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: Thunderstruck]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14785
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yea the 'surprise' storms the other night certainly caught many off guard, myself included but it does pay to check models beforehand as it would have revealed some potential for elevated storms. Big jet to the south, with a broad NW Entrance zone present over our area increasing upper divergence. Bit of a 'squeeze' of the flow aloft plus combined with the VERY warm to hot low level air with some cooling of the mids just above a very moist layer of Castellanus around 10-12,000ft. That cooling of the mids and the very warm air below just increased instability so didn't take much effort to promote lift, upper divergence just added the tonic aloft. ACCESS-R had Showalter Index down to about -2C which is sufficient enough for some weak elevated thunderstorms minus much of a sfc trough at all, which was located well inland. GFS did not show things as clearly at all. Didn't really check EC, but suspect it would have been similar....

Definitely a tricky one!

TS cool

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#1407478 - 13/02/2017 11:57 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: berga1987]
split_city Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/11/2008
Posts: 1032
Loc: Port Noarlunga, South Australi...
Originally Posted By: berga1987
Originally Posted By: split_city
Wife just told me about the lightning here but I slept through the whole thing. Guess lack of sleep from a newborn will do that to you.


Right... Do I need to go get a psych evaluation to make sure I am not somehow a split personality named split_city who logs in and posts things grin

Exactly the same scenario here last night. Wife told me in the morning there was quiet the lightning show last night, but I was sleeping my shift due to new born.

Congrats, btw.


Thanks. Third child so hopefully we know what we are doing by now wink

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#1407612 - 13/02/2017 22:39 Re: SA - Hot spell Feb 8-11 2017 [Re: StormCapture]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 6735
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: ThD Ht
Originally Posted By: -Cosmic- (naz)

Ironically, think it was Sky News recently, but not sure...anyway, whoever they were (forecast news service) they forecasted 33 for the Central Hills (yesterday), when it turned out to be 5 degrees higher...apparently continued to mention the figure even when it was clearly not being observed...oh well, I guess don't rely on one source is the moral of the story smile . Grain of salt stuff...until the weather patterns are better understood.


unfortunatly even in this day and age of high speed
everything tv news and weather services seem to be
notoriously slow to react to changing situations, even
with bushfire and pending short term severe weather events,
although things are slowly on the improve, a situation
like yours is probably a little less clear cut in regards
to importance, extremely important to you and others
affected, not so important in the big picture of entire
australia, bit hard to watch every microscale change or
anomaly happening every where and updating in near real
time. it's a matter of priorities and resources, i'm
sitting on the fence here and i can see and understand
what you're saying but i can also see their situation as
well. you simply cant build an Eiffel tower with a hundred
bucks and a few bits of steel.


TH

It probably doesn't matter that much anymore because the knowledge base for understanding how the weather works is far greater than any 5- or 10-minute news spiel could capture in one news segment. I've invested enough time and effort to get my own [private] ideas/models of how the weather works up and running smile .

Unfortunately, unless underlying understanding of what weather maps show is reasonably concrete - in theory - that's where it does get novel, or more of a curiosity re: news segments. It is not that it is difficult to understand; however, it can be very time-consuming...which may be a bit of a put-off. If you're livelihood or daily activities depend more heavily on weather forecasts...then that is a different matter, and it might be worth investing in equipment and the like.
_________________________
Only the most naive gamblers bet against physics, and only the most irresponsible bet with their grandchildrens resources.

-- William H. Calvin.

[A quote about abrupt weather pattern changes occurring within decades.]

Top
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