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#1405358 - 04/02/2017 22:17 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
MarkMark Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/01/2006
Posts: 41
Loc: Port Hedland
2 lows in a week.gotta love it

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#1405370 - 05/02/2017 01:38 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Gee the whole Top End/Kimberley is one big cloud. Right up into Asia. Here it comes. The North of Australia will be an island to the mainland if this keeps up.
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#1405372 - 05/02/2017 01:58 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2526
Loc: Chillagoe
Does that mean that we at 360 metres in Chillagoe will have a beach frontage?

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#1405429 - 05/02/2017 10:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Nah top of the arid dunes overlooking FNQ. Haha.
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#1405443 - 05/02/2017 10:34 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Popeye]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2526
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Nah top of the arid dunes overlooking FNQ. Haha.


Yeah....

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#1405482 - 05/02/2017 13:01 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3620
Loc: Broome

Forecast for Wednesday from WZ.

"A low may develop into a tropical cyclone and bring gusty winds, squally storms and heavy rain to the Pilbara."

Looks like it could be forming off the coast south of Port Hedland.

Interesting week coming up ...
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1405630 - 06/02/2017 07:19 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Latest EC looks to almost have a crossing or glance/sides wipe of the Western Pilbara.
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#1405710 - 06/02/2017 13:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Sepo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/10/2010
Posts: 376
Loc: Broome, WA
Yeah models seem to be developing it a bit quicker and a bit closer to home as well - especially the latest ACCESS.... Could be interesting to see if the BOM's outlook ramps up a bit this afternoon.

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#1405732 - 06/02/2017 15:43 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
Wouldn't be surprised if we have a track map out today.

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#1405768 - 06/02/2017 18:21 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Weathergrrl Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2012
Posts: 213
Loc: Karratha, WA
The works' SSU is out for the developing low. Has it developing into a Cat 1 just after Karratha on its way to Exmouth around Friday

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#1405782 - 06/02/2017 18:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3620
Loc: Broome


Latest info from BOM

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region

Issued at 2:24 pm WST on Monday 6 February 2017
for the period until midnight WST Thursday 9 February 2017.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough is active over the Browse Basin, Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and over waters north of the Pilbara. A weak low is forming near the west Kimberley coast. The system will slowly develop while moving west or southwest away from the Kimberley during Tuesday.

There is a Moderate risk of developing into a tropical cyclone during Wednesday if the system remains over water. There is a large amount of uncertainty, both in system track and development. Regardless of the development of the system, gales maybe possible in eastern quadrants aided by the active monsoonal surge, and may extend onto the Pilbara coast between Wallal and Mardie. The system crossing the coast east of Karratha during Wednesday before reaching tropical cyclone intensity is the most likely scenario.

During Thursday the system may have reached tropical cyclone intensity if it has remained over water. However the system crossing the coast into the west Pilbara is the most likely forecast. Gales could still be possible in coastal parts west of Karratha, but are likely to ease later in the day.

The likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:
Low

Wednesday:
Moderate

Thursday:
Moderate
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1405826 - 07/02/2017 01:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in parts of the
Kimberley and
Pilbara districts.

Issued at 4:29 pm Monday, 6 February 2017.

Weather situation:

A developing tropical low over the western Kimberley is forecast to move offshore close to Broome later tonight or early tomorrow morning and track west to southwest over the next 24 to 48 hours before making landfall over the Pilbara during Wednesday.

The system is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone however could produce HEAVY RAINFALL that may lead to FLASH FLOODING and DAMAGING WINDS to 100 kilometres per hour which could result in DAMAGE TO HOMES AND PROPERTY.

Isolated daily rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible through the warning area, with the heaviest rainfall most likely over the western Kimberley this evening, extending into the Pilbara during Tuesday.

Damaging winds, most likely in coastal locations, may develop from Wednesday morning as the low strengthens and approaches the Pilbara coast.

Tides will be higher than expected during Wednesday.

The warning area is likely to extend further west over coming days.

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#1405828 - 07/02/2017 02:47 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Some wicked lightning around here tonight. Going off just before.
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#1405829 - 07/02/2017 04:11 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Blanched Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/12/2009
Posts: 147
Loc: Karratha, WA
It's just moved offshore past you Popeye! Sambuca?

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#1405888 - 07/02/2017 13:23 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I held the glass up to it last night to cheers it and it did this back at me.



Safe at Anchor
by Richard Young, on Flickr
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#1405892 - 07/02/2017 13:51 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Popeye]
Kowree Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2012
Posts: 103
Loc: Utchee Creek via Innisfail.
My Godfather Popeye - your photos are incredible!

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#1405899 - 07/02/2017 14:00 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1139
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
is this monsoon making up for the last cpl? seems to be pretty handy. maybe something brewing later this wk?

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#1405908 - 07/02/2017 14:45 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Cheers Kowree, I will have to upload this years storms onto that page. There has been some cracker storms lately up this way. Big waterspout 2 days ago which was cool to capture.
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#1405910 - 07/02/2017 14:50 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: BIG T]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: BIG T
is this monsoon making up for the last cpl? seems to be pretty handy. maybe something brewing later this wk?


This year is definitely making up for the last 2 in terms of rainfall. It seems like there has been a constant line, one after the other, of tropical LOWS originating overland in the NT and pushing West as weak but wet rain bearing systems.

This current one and according to EC another one backing it up straight in behind. Be nice to get one really ramp up though and actually look like a TC rather than struggling. With potentially 10 weeks to go though that may still be on the cards.
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#1405915 - 07/02/2017 16:13 Re: WA Tropical Cyclone Season 2016/2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7851
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Pressure is still dropping in Broome 992.1. Interesting considering its moved offshore and on it's way.
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