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#1408021 - 16/02/2017 22:15 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Knot]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2584
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Any visuals?


I heard some thunder a moment ago and looked outside and saw this


Just kiddin. But I did hear thunder..


You dork! poke
_________________________
Lane Cove Weather Station

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#1408022 - 16/02/2017 22:16 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5633
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Wow, you have a big electrical storm!! Not surprising since you're in the Hunter, you guys hog EVERYTHING.... poke

If only though hahahaha. Would never ever get anything like that here.

Hot night tonight. Fan in my room has been going on full blast for much of the afternoon after a few days of not being needed.


Edited by Wave Rider (16/02/2017 22:17)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1408023 - 16/02/2017 22:18 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3215
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's a starry night here. Just went out on the balcony and saw sheet lightning. It lit up some structure. Doesn't seem to be very lightning-active. No thunder or rain here.

I was totally unaware of that cell, even though it must have passed nearby.


Edited by Steve777 (16/02/2017 22:24)

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#1408025 - 16/02/2017 22:25 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5633
Loc: Wollongong NSW
I'm actually surprised that you didn't get any rain, I must not know exactly where Artarmon is. Maybe you were north of the fast moving cell.

And that brings me to another point. The mid level winds for thunderstorm development have been really decent in the last few weeks nearly all the time. Early January and before that, the steering winds were pitiful.
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1408026 - 16/02/2017 22:25 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 759
Loc: Cammeray
Got drenched about half an hour ago in Cammeray taking some things out to the bin. No thunder that I heard but surprisingly heavy rain

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#1408027 - 16/02/2017 22:30 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Jimi]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3215
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Must have passed just to my South. Cameray is the next suburb.

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#1408028 - 16/02/2017 22:34 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1588
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
@Coastal
'its getting dork Ritchie...'

1991 was interesting then. Real hot summer. But thanks to Pinatubo the ski season that year was up there with the best. Weird how things work out.
@ Wave
have no idea where that lightning shot was taken. Very intense wherever it was
_________________________
Trump rocks!!

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#1408036 - 16/02/2017 23:26 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 759
Loc: Cammeray
I'm hoping a hot summer can still lead to a good ski season even without volcanoes. 1960 is another example.

Of course there's probably zero correlation but as a keen skier and lover of extremes (nothing more useless than temps of 0-25C) I'm choosing to be optimistic

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#1408037 - 16/02/2017 23:44 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3215
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
In Sydney, in terms of maxima, the hot Summer of 1996 was followed by a cool Autumn and what was, even by 19th century standards, a very cold Winter.

January 1960 was followed by an average Winter (i.e. cold by today's standards).

Summer 1990/91 was followed by an average Autumn and Winter (so cold by recent standards).

Ditto for the Summer of 1998.

I have a theory (no evidence - I might crunch the numbers when I get time) that hot Summers go with cold Winters. And every low 20s day in Winter is repayed with a low 20s day in Summer.

Maybe it's a cold Winter ahead (which these days means average).

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#1408041 - 17/02/2017 06:47 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Knot]
DerekHV Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 659
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
@ Derek. Yes the forecast for Newie is for beachside Newcastle. Nobby's site doesnt have much relevance for those who live out Glendale way etc. Be interesting if there was data that shows the extent of seabreeze penetration in Newcastle (be good for any large town or city on the coast). By data, I mean what suburbs mark the delineation between seabreeze and no seabreeze. I mentioned Glendale which can often be 10 degrees hotter than Nobbys on a summers day. But what suburbs does the boundary slice through. You simply can't talk about a generic weather forecast now for places like Newcastle where a lot of the population no longer lives right near the coast

@ Wave. Just noticed your Bellambi comment. Agree


Newcastle University at Callaghan would be a better option for weather forecasting and reporting:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw_061390.shtml

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#1408047 - 17/02/2017 07:14 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 759
Loc: Cammeray
My comment on 1960 was based on snow depth in the snowies more than what the Sydney temps were. 1960,64,68,81,90-92 were great winters and I was only alive for the last lot

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#1408049 - 17/02/2017 07:31 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Green Fields Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/01/2016
Posts: 66
Loc: Lightning Ridge/Walgett
Temps are starting to get back up again out here toward the 40 mark, and last night was very warm again. Earlier in the week we had one or two relatively milder days and pleasant nights for sleeping (that dropped to around 18 or 19). Perhaps the fact this next burst of heat isn't forecast to be as extreme as the last one is the first subtle sign of peak heat being over and the seasons changing. Maybe. And the change last Sunday and the one over the next few days appear stronger than any of the others over recent months. So maybe summer is starting to wind down, although these weekly bursts of higher temps are not wanting to go away.

And it's nice to see rain and storms forecast. Forecast says possibly severe storms across NW slopes and plains, Hunter, Sydney, central tableland, northern Illawarra, so today might be one to watch. Hopefully some good rain over the next few days smile

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#1408052 - 17/02/2017 08:08 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5633
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Today is looking very decent for some severe storm activity. Temps are expected to be below zero above 600mb so there could be some large hail in any well developed storm.

Whether these storms form or not is a different story entirely, but this is the best potential for a severe storm that we've had in a long time. Plus the atmosphere is very unstable above 700mb, but very stable below that.


Edited by Wave Rider (17/02/2017 08:10)
_________________________
2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
Mar- 13th, 16th, 22nd
Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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#1408054 - 17/02/2017 08:14 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1258
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
GFS is showing fairly pitiful rainfall totals for this event. Access seems to be a little more bullish. There is the possibility of decent storms over the next 3 days, so I wonder why nothing is really showing up? Even under the areas like the Hunter with long periods of high storm probability.

It did the same thing a few weeks back. Anyway it might be to do with storm dominant precipitation?

Also we recently had BOM forecasts of 95% and possible heavy falls and most of the hunter got basically zero. I think GFS wasnt loving totals for that event too.

Anyway it worries me when we have BOM forecasts that look good and GFS isnt really showing accumulations. Instability yes; but I would have thought there would be a few 25-50mm patches and really its only the BT's showing anything like that.

Really should see some interesting action this afternoon here at least, but everything is so sketchy and marginal and there is nothing on the horizon after this either.

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#1408059 - 17/02/2017 08:41 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Welt Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 02/12/2005
Posts: 30
Loc: Surry Hills
Today should be interesting

A HIGH OVER THE TASMAN SEA DIRECTS A NORTHEASTERLY AIRSTREAM OVER
SYDNEY.
HOT TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE MORNING AND
A FRESH NORTHEAST SEABREEZE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, AND THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE OF THEM REACHING THE COAST AS THE STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE
FAVOURABLE. INCREASING INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOSTURE, COMBINED
WITH A FAVOURABLE UPPER WIND PROFILE, COULD LEAD TO ORGANISED AND
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, AFFECTING TRAFFIC WITHIN THE TMA FOR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TL;DR - IT'S GOING TO BE A BIG STORM DAY IN SYDNEY.


THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITHIN THE TMA (CIRCLE TO 45NM RADIUS):
70% CHANCE WITHIN THE TMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, 00/10Z, WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY LASTING WELL INTO THE EVENING,
10/12Z.
10% CHANCE WITHIN 10NM OF THE AERODROME FRIDAY AFTERNOON, 02/03Z,
INCREASING TO 30% 03/09Z, WITH THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD 04-07Z.

OTHER POSSIBILITIES:
30% CHANCE THE WINDS WILL TEND NW'LY FRIDAY MORNING, 18/23Z.
20% CHANCE OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

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#1408060 - 17/02/2017 08:43 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Edge Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 04/02/2017
Posts: 8
Yeah sorry for the pessimism but this is Sydney we are talking about here .. watch everything fire north of Palm Beach as per normal !! Can't buy a marginal day and have seen this type of set up equal a massive fail for the metro time and time agian! Last night was meant to see action of the coast ( cape map had purple values ..... all I saw was stars) ... not getting my hopes up!


Edited by Edge (17/02/2017 08:48)

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#1408061 - 17/02/2017 08:52 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Knot]
J Pabo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/10/2012
Posts: 278
Originally Posted By: Knot
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Any visuals?


I heard some thunder a moment ago and looked outside and saw this


Just kiddin. But I did hear thunder..


Here are some stills from the storm that was north of me last night

[img]https://goo.gl/photos/GdakfQoVADnfTp8X8[/img]

[img]https://goo.gl/photos/2whuPymxvQJjy7bV8[/img]

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#1408064 - 17/02/2017 09:08 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1526
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Interesting map. Is that behind the BOM paywall?


Yup frown

If you know someone in the SES you might be able to get the shared credentials off them.

IMO there should be a login available for weather hobbyists. Would be a good way for the BoM to support the community and increase public interest in meteorology.
_________________________
Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1408067 - 17/02/2017 09:23 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9394
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Next week from say Wednesday, EC is trying to impose much hotter conditions than GFS and Access - I really hope EC is NOT right.

Green Fields - sadly your area is one of the last to lose heat each year. Although for you a pleasant day and almost cool is prob 30 with a breeze smile

Naughty knotty at the "legs" bit grin

Frogs have been VERY vocal in my yard over the last four or five evenings. In fact I have no idea where they live or whether I've been invaded because I rarely hear them at other times. smile

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#1408071 - 17/02/2017 09:34 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1258
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
well the cumulus field was nice looking an hour ago to the west, but I thought I wouldnt get ahead of myself re storms, but low and behold there is a storm passing north and some nice development to the west as well. See if we can get a shower to start this event off.

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