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#1407846 - 15/02/2017 19:56 NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3335
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A broad trough is about to cross NSW over the next few days, dragging hot, humid tropical air from the North West as it approaches, with quite cool air following in its wake.

So after the milder weather of the last couple of days, the heat makes a brief return for Thursday and Friday February 16-17. Not the savage heat of recent weeks, just normal hot. Low 30s near the coast, high 30s inland, mid 30s on the tablelands, maybe up to 40 in the Hunter.

What looks to be quite a significant cool change reaches Sydney early Saturday, later for inland locations and the Hunter, which will get a third hot day. There's a good chance of storms with and immediately following the change. The BOM forecasts possible storms for Friday and Saturday. A poster with knowledge of things like CAPE, shear and so forth may wish to comment further.

The air behind the change is quite cool for this time of year, with 850 temps of 8-10 over Sydney on Sunday and Monday. I think the BOM may have overcooked Sydney's maxima for those days, I think it will struggle to make 20-21, but we'll see.

There looks to be some pretty good rainfall totals with and following the change North from the Illawarra, mainly East of the Divide with some 'spillage' further inland. Some forecast totals for February 17-21 (millimeters, rounded):

Code:
Sydney ......... 25 - 70 
Penrith ........ 15 - 50
Bathurst ........ 5 - 15
Canberra ........ 1 -  5
Newcastle ...... 30 - 80
Singleton ...... 25 - 70
Wollongong ..... 15 - 50

Afterwards, it looks like a return to fairly typical late Summer conditions, but that's a way off yet.


Edited by Seabreeze (18/02/2017 18:10)
Edit Reason: added giant hail

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#1407854 - 15/02/2017 20:33 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1804
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
I'm over these troughing events with the tasman highs hanging round like a bad smell. At least we might get a bit of cloud juice this time round


Edited by Knot (15/02/2017 20:35)
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#1407856 - 15/02/2017 20:48 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Ben Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5296
Loc: Loganholme/Tweed Coast
Originally Posted By: Steve777

A poster with knowledge of things like CAPE, shear and so forth may wish to comment further.


From what I can see the setup on Friday/Saturday looks very good for severe thunderstorms on both days. Upper temps aren't anywhere near as warm as they have been, and on Saturday there is an approaching upper trough. Shear is very good, with potential for supercells. Sydney runs the risk of the SE change coming in too early on Sat, however could be some good rain regardless. GFS/ACCESS are faster than EC. Hunter should be the spot for severe action on Sat I'd say.

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#1407863 - 15/02/2017 21:11 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Ben]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1804
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Originally Posted By: Steve777

A poster with knowledge of things like CAPE, shear and so forth may wish to comment further.


I know a thing about Batman. Does that qualify he he

Originally Posted By: Ben
Hunter should be the spot for severe action on Sat I'd say.


Noooooooooo!!!!


This guy has some numbers about severe storms. Only trouble I have with it is that I haven't a freaking clue about any of it. Burrrrrppp!
Severe Weather Indices


Edited by Knot (15/02/2017 21:18)
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#1407873 - 15/02/2017 22:30 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Thunderstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/12/2012
Posts: 121
Loc: sw suburbs of Adelaide
Moree another day of 35+ thats 51 consecutive days, broken the record set by Bourke of 50. Mungindi could be 52?

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#1407898 - 16/02/2017 09:14 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1804
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W

Same old story. Heat
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The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1407900 - 16/02/2017 09:55 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9569
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Certainly a couple of warmer days and nights coming up. As Steve said though - not extreme heat, mind you it will be warm enough the further inland you go.

Access persists with cooler and wetter conditions over the weekend - mainly Sunday for cool. It's more out there though than the others. I hope Access does the underdog thing and is the winner smile

Interestingly, GFS pushes the red line WELL north and keeps it there for the length of it's extended runs. That would be nice (for me) if it happened smile

Access brings the red line back down though in the 2nd half of next week. Not deeply down but enough to be average or warmer.

Enough variation in the models for me to indicate that the heat engine is on the cusp of losing it's effect for this region, I HOPE!! smile

Even just having some variation from cooler to warmer and back is much more interesting than just endless minimal changing conditions.

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#1407908 - 16/02/2017 11:36 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3335
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's a clear, sunny day in Sydney, with light breezes starting to pick up. What most Sydneysiders would think of as a perfect Summer day.

Temps are slowly rising. The sea breeze is established on the coast, with light winds, mainly Northerlies, inland. Sydney Airport and sites in Sydney's West have passed 30 or will get there soon.

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#1407911 - 16/02/2017 11:54 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1804
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
Spot on Dave. It's the fact there have only been weak changes after the heat. Cooler, but still at, or above average. Just no grunt and after the few cooler days the heat romps back. But nothing lasts for ever and the lows will push through more. Let's hope.
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The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1407914 - 16/02/2017 12:11 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
davidm Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1543
Loc: Orange, NSW
This is what I like to see!

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Wunderground | davidm.com.au

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#1407918 - 16/02/2017 12:47 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: davidm]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3335
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Interesting map. Is that behind the BOM paywall?

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#1407920 - 16/02/2017 13:02 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9569
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Cheers DavidM - nice looking map smile

Yep Knotty, some variation in the weather is what I want.

Out here in elevated areas, the calendar is now playing a part in the weather. Day length is shortening noticeably. We are now only a month from the Equinox. Nights at elevation are happy to cool off if there are no other strong factors at play.

Our March average minimum is about 10 degrees. Supposedly Feb is about 13 or 14 (well above that this year). The nights though are suddenly showing a reluctance to get above 15 now. Nights above that will rapidly become rare from now on. We look like having an 8 or 9 next week.

These cooler nights make it hard for the day to get too high. Shame really smile

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#1407921 - 16/02/2017 13:09 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3335
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I think we're into a new cycle now. Fairly hot for two or three days (except the coastal strip), depending upon where you are, then cooler with rain, especially near the coast, then changeable. I expect there'll be more hot days, especially away from the coast, but no real extremes. Yesterday we had a sunny day with average temperatures. That hasn't happened for a while. We've also hsd three successive sub 20 minima at OH - ditto.

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#1407923 - 16/02/2017 13:24 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: DaveM]
orangeroughy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2012
Posts: 652
Loc: Orange, NSW
Originally Posted By: DaveM
Cheers DavidM - nice looking map smile

Yep Knotty, some variation in the weather is what I want.

Out here in elevated areas, the calendar is now playing a part in the weather. Day length is shortening noticeably. We are now only a month from the Equinox. Nights at elevation are happy to cool off if there are no other strong factors at play.

These cooler nights make it hard for the day to get too high. Shame really smile


Yep its heartening to know that mother nature is onside with the day shortening now nearing its most rapid rate (a feature of daylength change around the equinoxes). smile
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NW Orange NSW 860m asl

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#1407926 - 16/02/2017 13:43 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1348
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Very warm here plenty of cumulus around and growing,from the west.


Edited by Stormy3 (16/02/2017 13:43)

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#1407929 - 16/02/2017 13:59 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 1804
Loc: Blue Bay N.S.W
I think I can count about 3 times this year I have had to pull a sheet over me through the night. And early yesterday morning was the first time for a light dressing gown since god knows when.
_________________________
The deep blue skies of youth are unlike any other.

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#1407935 - 16/02/2017 14:42 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 9569
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
The last few nights have seen us with a single blanket on - last night it was a push it down & pull it back up kinda night smile

We average about 13 days at or above 30 in January and about 7 in Feb.

In January we had 22
In Feb we've had 13 until today (the 16th of the month) and will be another tomorrow and possibly Saturday too.

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#1407947 - 16/02/2017 15:40 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 772
Loc: Cammeray
We were under the doona. Sub 20 - yuck!

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#1407950 - 16/02/2017 15:48 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: Steve777]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 3335
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
A few maxima around Sydney, showing distance from the open sea:

Code:
Belambi        26.5    0
Obs Hill       29.5    7
Airport        33.1    8
Olympic Park   34.8   19
Bankstown      36.2   24  
Penrith        38.3   56


So pretty hot away from the beach or the Harbour.

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#1407953 - 16/02/2017 16:17 Re: NSW: Heat, major cool change, storms/rain (with Giant Hailstones on Feb 18th) - Feb 16-21 2017 [Re: DaveM]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 5965
Loc: Wollongong NSW
Originally Posted By: DaveM

We average about 13 days at or above 30 in January and about 7 in Feb.

In January we had 22
In Feb we've had 13 until today (the 16th of the month) and will be another tomorrow and possibly Saturday too.


Those are crazy numbers for a place that is sometimes cold enough to get snow in winter!! smile

So you've had 35 out of 47 days this year over 30 degrees. That's quite amazing for 700m ASL
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2016-17 season storm total for here= 15

Oct- 21st
Nov- 9th, 28th
Jan- 24th
Feb- 11th, 12th, 17th, 18th(2)
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Apr- 9th, 26th
May- 24th

The longer you wait for things, the more you appreciate them.

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