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#1408050 - 17/02/2017 08:00 Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24652
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
looking likely to be our first named system of the season.

OP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 5:01 am EST on Friday 17 February 2017
Headline:
High chance of a Gulf of Carpentaria tropical cyclone this weekend.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
NT/Qld Border to Burketown.

Watch Zone
Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 am AEST [3:30 am ACST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 15 kilometres of 16.6 degrees South 139.2 degrees East, estimated to be 7 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island and 130 kilometres east of NT/Qld Border.

Movement: southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low situated near Mornington Island is expected to continue moving towards the southwest today and may form into a tropical cyclone by tonight. It is possible that the system may reach category 2 intensity near the Qld/NT border on Saturday, but this will be highly dependent on the system taking a track over water during the next 24 hours.

Hazards:
GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Burketown (Queensland) and the NT/Queensland border today, before possibly extending to Port McArthur (NT) on Saturday. DESTRUCTIVE winds, with gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour, may occur near the NT/Queensland border during Saturday.

Heavy rain, which may lead to localised flash flooding, is also possible in areas about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, islands and adjacent inland areas during today and over the weekend.

Abnormally high tides are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast today and over the weekend, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.

Recommended Action:
People between Burketown (Queensland) and the NT/Queensland border should take precautions and listen to the next advice at around 8am AEST.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service (QFES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

NTES advises communities under Watch between Port McArthur and the Qld/NT border:

- Finalise your emergency kit preparations;

- Clear your premises of potential wind borne missiles;

- Commence home shelter preparations, or decide NOW where you will shelter;

- If your present accommodation is not to code, or you re unsure, you should arrange to shelter with friends, family or in a public shelter or strong building.

- Do not move to shelter until advised by local authorities.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am AEST Friday 17 February [7:30 am ACST Friday 17 February].
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone


Edited by Mick10 (20/02/2017 09:49)
Edit Reason: name change
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
February 2017 total - 67.2mm (283mm)
March 2017 total - 165.4mm (197mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 496.2mm (1107mm)

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#1408051 - 17/02/2017 08:08 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23475
Loc: Townsville
Its close to being named. Very close. Its just so close to land.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1408055 - 17/02/2017 08:17 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
weathermegs Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/03/2010
Posts: 444
Loc: Edmonton QLD
After such a pathetic start to the season let's hope it gives us something to watch otherwise I need to find a new hobby


Edited by weathermegs (17/02/2017 08:18)

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#1408056 - 17/02/2017 08:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 2568
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Looks nice on radar.

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#1408062 - 17/02/2017 08:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 96
Loc: Noonamah
From the technical bulletin issued 1910 UTC 16/02/2017 [0440 ACST 17/02/2017]

REMARKS:
The tropical low over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters has rapidly developed over the last 24 hours. Mornington Island radar has shown that convection is tightly wrapping around the low level centre, which is currently located near the north coast of Mornington Island. The automatic weather station [AWS] at Mornington Island Airport has shown pressure falls of 10hPa over the last 24 hours and 4hPa in the hour to 18UTC, which supports the recent development trend. ASCAT-B at 1148UTC indicated an area of marginal gale force winds on the eastern flank of the system and gales have recently been observed at Mornington Island Airport AWS.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern with a 0.5 degree wrap, giving a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT 1.5 and 2.0 respectively. FT based on DT as it appeared fairly clear.

The CIMMS satellite winds indicate that the system lies in an environment favourable for development with low vertical wind shear and dual outflow channels evident. Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm at 30 degrees around the southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters. As a result, it is anticipated that the system may form into a tropical cyclone today and that it could reach category 2 intensity on Saturday near the Qld/NT border, but this will be highly dependent on the system taking a track over water during the next 24 hours.

The recent movement of the system has been towards the southwest, presumably under the influence of a mid-level ridge situated to the south. It is expected that the system should continue moving in this direction, or to the west-southwest, until Saturday when an upper trough breaks down the current steering influence, resulting in a recurving of the system towards the east.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.



GFS has it ending up heading south west roughly past Tennant Creek and into WA whereas BOM has it heading east.

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#1408066 - 17/02/2017 09:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 96
Loc: Noonamah
Global model tracks for this system


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#1408068 - 17/02/2017 09:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: tropicbreeze]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 96
Loc: Noonamah
91P Long Floater - Visible Imagery Loop

www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91P/flash-vis-long.html

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#1408099 - 17/02/2017 11:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7694
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Its close to being named. Very close. Its just so close to land.

Must be good to finally get a chase. Are you guys onto it?
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1408107 - 17/02/2017 12:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23475
Loc: Townsville
Will be if it hits Karumba.

Only play in the southern gulf.
_________________________
2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1408160 - 17/02/2017 16:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24652
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
latest track is a lot slower.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
February 2017 total - 67.2mm (283mm)
March 2017 total - 165.4mm (197mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 496.2mm (1107mm)

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#1408180 - 17/02/2017 17:15 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
rainthisway Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 436
Loc: Mutarnee.....70km north of Tow...
This is gonna be useless to us. Be good for the gulf region but us nup. No chance. Will get nothing from it.
_________________________
Nikko

Mutarnee, Southern Wet Tropics - 70km North of Townsville and 40km south of Ingham.

MTD (Mar 2017]: 227.4mm (Ave 330.1mm)
Feb 2017: 224.5mm (avg 468.4mm)
YTD 2017 663.8mm (Avg 1964.9mm)

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#1408183 - 17/02/2017 17:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
WANDJINA G'vale Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2125
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
Someone better chase it, the cyclones are quite scarce again so far and not much chance to get chases
_________________________
Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal mythology

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#1408206 - 17/02/2017 19:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 1838
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Well if they are going to chase it, can they chase it into the coastal CQ area?

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#1408212 - 17/02/2017 19:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24652
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
yep sadly all models align for an eventual westward movement.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
February 2017 total - 67.2mm (283mm)
March 2017 total - 165.4mm (197mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 496.2mm (1107mm)

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#1408217 - 17/02/2017 19:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 2949
Loc: Broome


Right that's it then can't say you guys didn't have your chance.
_________________________
Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
- Mark Twain

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#1408219 - 17/02/2017 19:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7694
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Mick10
yep sadly all models align for an eventual westward movement.

That's great news. poke
_________________________
Popeye's 2015/16 Broome Wet Season Images

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#1408224 - 17/02/2017 20:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24652
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
large chunks of our states drought declared farmers disagree, as does our city water supply.

however, weirdly the low now seems to be moving SE.
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
February 2017 total - 67.2mm (283mm)
March 2017 total - 165.4mm (197mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 496.2mm (1107mm)

Top
#1408233 - 17/02/2017 21:20 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1585
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
Here is a time lapse of the last 24 hours of satellite images.
http://www.oceanviewweather.com.au/Satellite/HimawariSatellite-GOC.asp
(It updates every 30 minutes)
_________________________
Ocean View, QLD. (Alt. 398m)

GFS + Long Range - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/GFS
Satellite Images - http://www.OceanViewWeather.com.au/Satellite

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#1408235 - 17/02/2017 21:29 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: desieboy]
JimmyGray Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/08/2008
Posts: 1558
Loc: Palmerston NT
Originally Posted By: desieboy


Right that's it then can't say you guys didn't have your chance.

LMAO ....
And yeh Mick its SE or South by my reckoning

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#1408245 - 17/02/2017 22:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 24652
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
may have been a wobble in the llcc but its now slipped over the border into the NT, so back to SW/SWW
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
February 2017 total - 67.2mm (283mm)
March 2017 total - 165.4mm (197mm)
2017 Yearly total to date - 496.2mm (1107mm)

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