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#1408316 - 18/02/2017 13:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Rhubarb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 749
Loc: West End, Townsville, QLD
Maybe clutching at straws here, but have been playing about to see if there is ANY hope for us in the next few weeks.

This image is Surface Dew Point/Wind for 27/02/2017 ...

May be something brewing in the Coral Sea?? Anyone agree???

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Rhubarb
Slightly damp!!

Rainfall
2017: May 19th: 46mm
2017: May 18th: 113 mm Whopee ..................
2017: May 17th: 22 mm
2017: To date: 642.5 mm
2016: 1,660 mm
2015: 430.5 mm

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#1408324 - 18/02/2017 14:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Tell the farmers that and you would get shot lol


Farming is no different to tourism. You have your good years and your horrendous years. I will have a few shots with them at the Bar the next good year they have when they spend big on a nice holiday to Broome with the family. That way they can help tourism at the same time.
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#1408326 - 18/02/2017 14:36 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Lani Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 997
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Final run on the BOM weather map next friday almost looks like that low might head towards the qld coast. Can only hope smile
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Jimbour rain: 2017-298, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-1.5

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1408328 - 18/02/2017 14:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
I guess they could name this system as a TC. It might sneak into QLD area of responsibility for an hour or so reach 34knts on half the exposed LLCC and get a tick of approval.
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#1408350 - 18/02/2017 15:44 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3124
Loc: Broome


One thing that I've noticed especially this year is there seems to be a lesser chance of TCs forming when there is a strong monsoonal flow and lots of low pressure troughs around.
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Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.
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#1408480 - 18/02/2017 22:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Yeah considering its meant to be an above average year with 10-11 or more cyclones to form. At this stage we only have a marginal CAT 1 in WA. I guess at least the social media platforms flogging to death the cyclone formations this season, they might get to 10-11 talked up fails by the end of the year.
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#1408491 - 19/02/2017 03:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
How many did the BOM forecast?
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1408502 - 19/02/2017 07:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tropicbreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 127
Loc: Noonamah
Latest GFS has it breaking away from the GOC mid week, crossing the base of the Top End to the JBG, then across the Kimberley to the Indian Ocean. In the GOC it's going to have too much dry air intrusion to amount to much although BOM still having it maxing out at cat 2.

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#1408521 - 19/02/2017 09:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Ronfishes]
Ronfishes Offline
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Registered: 25/02/2013
Posts: 3184
Loc: Gordonvale
Originally Posted By: Ronfishes
Pretty sure Burketown just scored highest Feb 24hr total.


Boroloola now too.
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MTD: 22.2mm
2016-2017 wet season: 1317.8mm
YTD: 1266.6mm

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#1408525 - 19/02/2017 10:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
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Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Don't lose hope. 10-11 cyclones for the season just means the next month and a half is going to be insane wink. Seriously though this will likely go down as one of the worst predictions ever. Question is do we know exactly WHY it has been so bad and what climatological factors are the causes?

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#1408543 - 19/02/2017 12:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23510
Loc: Townsville
Atlantic has been bad too, just not completely dead like ours.

Our ACE is horrendeous.
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#1408546 - 19/02/2017 12:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Dawgggg]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
How many did the BOM forecast?

I am not sure on exact numbers. You lose faith in 'predictions' and short and long term 'model reliance' especially when they often forecast 5% chance of rain and we cop 50mm+ half an hour later. The occasional 'stick their heads out the window and have a look' forecast would be better sometimes.
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#1408547 - 19/02/2017 12:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
desieboy Offline
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Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3124
Loc: Broome

Predicting TC status anyway as it spins away in the GoC.

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#1408548 - 19/02/2017 12:26 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Let's see if their 'prediction' is on the money this time.
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#1408549 - 19/02/2017 12:27 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Popeye]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4352
Originally Posted By: Popeye
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
How many did the BOM forecast?

I am not sure on exact numbers. You lose faith in 'predictions' and short and long term 'model reliance' especially when they often forecast 5% chance of rain and we cop 50mm+ half an hour later. The occasional 'stick their heads out the window and have a look' forecast would be better sometimes.

The Bureau's outlook had a 67% chance of more TC's than usual (11) for this season in the Australian region.

Also, looking out the window is absolutely useless for predicting what a TC season will be like, let alone many aspects of weather beyond a few hours.

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#1408550 - 19/02/2017 12:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
It's become a bit of a ongoing laughing joke in Broome amongst the weather crew. Last year we got most of our rains and heavy falls when it was forecast 0% or 5% chance. When it was 95% we got nothing. Thats were my 'stick your head out the window forecast' means something. How do you explain this absolute failure of forecasting.
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#1408551 - 19/02/2017 12:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4352
Furthermore, the seasonal TC outlooks are NOT based on computer models. They use the past relationships between SOI and the SST anomalies in the NINO 3.4 region of the equatorial eastern central Pacific.

Incidentally, back when the Bureau's seasonal TC outlook was issued for this season, the EC model's seasonal outlook for tropical storm activity was lower than average for the Australian region as a whole.

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#1408553 - 19/02/2017 12:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Maybe they need to focus more on the IOD instead as this was the driver of alot of our weather this year and I believe has influenced things in recent years aswell.
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#1408555 - 19/02/2017 12:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7765
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
But yeah its hard to predict weather.
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#1408556 - 19/02/2017 12:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
In the long run it can only be a learning experience for modellers and those making the predicitions. Is it time that TC predictions stopped being based on such limited criteria? or is that the only option as we are in the dark about other contributing factors?

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