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#1408559 - 19/02/2017 12:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7768
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Maybe limiting the criteria even further may be more accurate. Why include data from 30-40-50-60-70 years ago when possibly things have changed enough to warrant using only the last 30 years of data to get a more realistic current estimate of cyclone numbers.
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#1408562 - 19/02/2017 12:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4428
Slightly off-topic for a sec but still related to TC's in general, up til recent years, research findings about future long term trends in TC activity was mixed and there was no tight consensus.

But in more recent years, a growing amount of climate change research has been predicting TC's to continue becoming fewer in many ocean basins around the world (the NW Pacific might be a bit different though) but of the high-end intense ones that do manage to occur, they're likely to continue becoming even more intense (and TC's venturing into higher latitudes than before). The confidence about this has become higher but there's still some uncertainty about it with some mixed signals.
One of the main suspected factors is shear becoming more hostile in the tropics.

It does appear that this trend has already started to be observed in recent years in many ocean basins but it's still a bit too early to tell whether it's a transient phase or part of the true long term trend.

Of course, that will be howled down/ridiculed/ignored by the usual people but nevertheless, it is interesting.


Edited by Ken Kato (19/02/2017 12:53)
Edit Reason: added stuff

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#1408572 - 19/02/2017 14:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3568
That's interesting Ken, I'd say it would be near impossible to predict a long term trend, let alone the current and following seasons.

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#1408589 - 19/02/2017 15:21 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Popeye Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 7768
Loc: Cable Beach - Broome WA
Cheers Ken. Interesting to hear.
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#1408594 - 19/02/2017 15:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
desieboy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/12/2002
Posts: 3169
Loc: Broome
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

One of the main suspected factors is shear becoming more hostile in the tropics.




That's certainly has been the case off the W.A coast this year.
May have been a contributing factor in keeping a few of the lows from forming and moving off the coast.
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#1408679 - 19/02/2017 19:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
divho Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/09/2002
Posts: 369
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Of course, that will be howled down/ridiculed/ignored by the usual people but nevertheless, it is interesting.


Seriously, was that necessary ?

As a public face of the BOM you are just as bad with that arrogance.

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#1408683 - 19/02/2017 20:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4428
Seriously, did you even have to ask?
Was I referring to you? NO.
Did I call you arrogant or make a personal insult against you? NO.
And I'm not a public face of the BoM.
Get your facts straight before you start throwing accusations around of being arrogant.

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#1408689 - 19/02/2017 20:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: divho]
bbowen Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/03/2011
Posts: 113
Settle down, and he isn't the public face of the BOM. That is you who falsely assigns that.

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#1408692 - 19/02/2017 20:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: divho]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23527
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: divho
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato

Of course, that will be howled down/ridiculed/ignored by the usual people but nevertheless, it is interesting.


Seriously, was that necessary ?

As a public face of the BOM you are just as bad with that arrogance.


Have a snickers mate.



Edited by Dawgggg (19/02/2017 20:07)
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#1408751 - 19/02/2017 21:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 17452
Loc: Wide Bay..Near the beach
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Slightly off-topic for a sec but still related to TC's in general, up til recent years, research findings about future long term trends in TC activity was mixed and there was no tight consensus.

But in more recent years, a growing amount of climate change research has been predicting TC's to continue becoming fewer in many ocean basins around the world (the NW Pacific might be a bit different though) but of the high-end intense ones that do manage to occur, they're likely to continue becoming even more intense (and TC's venturing into higher latitudes than before). The confidence about this has become higher but there's still some uncertainty about it with some mixed signals.
One of the main suspected factors is shear becoming more hostile in the tropics.

It does appear that this trend has already started to be observed in recent years in many ocean basins but it's still a bit too early to tell whether it's a transient phase or part of the true long term trend.

Of course, that will be howled down/ridiculed/ignored by the usual people but nevertheless, it is interesting.


Good read.

As you say it may be just part of a cycle ,however since BoM made a statement regarding this several years back it has been quite accurate. Time will tell if it was just good timing or there has been a permanent change .
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#1408760 - 19/02/2017 21:18 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Brett Guy Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 4844
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Just to be the devils advocate here. Has that prediction(which definitely seems to be fairly close to the mark atm)been a reactionary one as we seem to get with ENSO or did it precede the beginning of the trend?


Edited by Brett Guy (19/02/2017 21:23)

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#1408797 - 19/02/2017 23:04 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1738
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Good old climate change, More storms, less storms, stronger storms, weaker storms, flood, drought, fire or famine, it doesn't matter what it is as Climate Change fits all criteria and any old cause can be thrown in there, BOM predicts about 11 storms and they don't eventuate....Climate Change.

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#1408799 - 19/02/2017 23:10 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: marakai]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 1740
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: marakai
Good old climate change, More storms, less storms, stronger storms, weaker storms, flood, drought, fire or famine, it doesn't matter what it is as Climate Change fits all criteria and any old cause can be thrown in there, BOM predicts about 11 storms and they don't eventuate....Climate Change.


Ken was referring to specific modelling signals for changing trends in cyclone activity. He wasn't attributing every weather phenomenon on the planet. I would add however that the very nature of 'climate change' is that it affects every aspect of the weather.

It's also disappointing when you get such vitriolic statements. Instead of discussing things rationally people always seem to jump to extremes when arguing about climate change. I guess that's why we can't discuss it here anymore even though it is such an important and relevant matter related to the weather we talk about on the forums.

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#1408801 - 19/02/2017 23:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Ken Kato Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 4428
marakai: Thanks for proving my point I made in my previous post. Textbook example. Maybe try and make an effort to learn about it and be interested in it just for once in your life rather than constantly mocking it. As predictable as night following day.

And trying to predict TC frequency for a single season is NOTHING like predicting their overall long term trend. It's like trying to compare short term weather with long term climate. Apples and oranges. Classic example of the lack of knowledge of even the most basic principles of climate.
Thanks also for reminding me why I don't often bother posting in here anymore.

Brett Guy: Hard to say I think because even before the observed trend, there were some (but not all) studies that were suggesting fewer TC'- just that the proportion's grown since then. Unlike things temps and extreme rainfall events, things like TC's and thunderstorms are still far more uncertain.

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#1408807 - 19/02/2017 23:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Nature's Fury]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1738
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Originally Posted By: marakai
Good old climate change, More storms, less storms, stronger storms, weaker storms, flood, drought, fire or famine, it doesn't matter what it is as Climate Change fits all criteria and any old cause can be thrown in there, BOM predicts about 11 storms and they don't eventuate....Climate Change.


Ken was referring to specific modelling signals for changing trends in cyclone activity. He wasn't attributing every weather phenomenon on the planet. I would add however that the very nature of 'climate change' is that it affects every aspect of the weather.

It's also disappointing when you get such vitriolic statements. Instead of discussing things rationally people always seem to jump to extremes when arguing about climate change. I guess that's why we can't discuss it here anymore even though it is such an important and relevant matter related to the weather we talk about on the forums.


Vitriolic ?

vitriolic
ˌvɪtrɪˈɒlɪk/
adjective
adjective: vitriolic

filled with bitter criticism or malice.
"vitriolic attacks on the politicians"
synonyms: acrimonious, rancorous, bitter, caustic, mordant, acerbic, astringent, acid, acrid, trenchant, virulent, spiteful, crabbed, savage, venomous, poisonous, malicious, malignant, malign, pernicious, splenetic; nasty, mean, cruel, unkind, harsh, ill-natured, evil-intentioned, vindictive, scathing, searing, biting, barbed, wounding, stinging, tart, sharp, rapier-like, razor-edged, cutting, withering, sarcastic, sardonic, irascible;


I made no mention of any group in my post, I made no comment on any group in my post, I didn't mention Ken, I didn't disparage anybody at all.
All I did was make an observation.

Rational conversation starts when both sides are open to discussion rather than assuming that the other side of the debate are ignorant or have nothing to contribute and argue from a sense of authority rather than engagement.

Please show me where I was vitriolic, condescending or wrong in my post above. I was not the one who started with the Climate Change part of this discussion, I merely made a comment.

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#1408810 - 19/02/2017 23:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Ken Kato]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1738
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
marakai: Thanks for proving my point I made in my previous post. Textbook example. Maybe try and make an effort to learn about it and be interested in it just for once in your life rather than constantly mocking it. As predictable as night following day.

And trying to predict TC frequency for a single season is NOTHING like predicting their overall long term trend. It's like trying to compare short term weather with long term climate. Apples and oranges. Classic example of the lack of knowledge of even the most basic principles of climate.
Thanks also for reminding me why I don't often bother posting in here anymore.

Brett Guy: Hard to say I think because even before the observed trend, there were some (but not all) studies that were suggesting fewer TC'- just that the proportion's grown since then. Unlike things temps and extreme rainfall events, things like TC's and thunderstorms are still far more uncertain.


How about some basic tenants of science in that mix Ken ? Lets start with the predictive ability of an hypothesis and what happens when it fails, do we throw it out and start again or just tweak the numbers some more until they tell us what we want to hear ?

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#1408811 - 19/02/2017 23:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Aussea Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/01/2012
Posts: 30
Loc: Buderim, QLD
Hey Ken. Please continue to bother to post!! One of the major draw cards of this weather forum for me apart from the local real time reporting from the community - are your Posts. Seriously. If I couldn't grab an insight of yours now and then particularly during major weather events - I would not bother to come back to this weather forum TBH.

I may not contribute that much on here; and ahem, are still gazing according to the Weatherzone forum ranking, but I hugely respect your posts and depth of knowledge. Thanks for your long standing efforts and the enlightenment!.

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#1408817 - 20/02/2017 01:07 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3676
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
It's true that climate models generally lean towards a future outcome of fewer TCs but more intense ones, but in both cases the projected trends are sufficiently weak that we would not expect to see them in the data as yet.

There's not much evidence yet of a trend in the total number of TCs globally, which is remarkably stable from year to year - anything outside a range of 75 to 95 is pretty rare. (This is partly because El Nino/La Nina have opposite effects in different basins, so an inactive season in the Australian region will often be active in the Northeast Pacific, for instance). The last decade has been rather inactive by historic standards in the Australian region and further east in the South Pacific, but rather active in the northeast Pacific and Atlantic.

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#1408825 - 20/02/2017 07:52 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
tag Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/12/2010
Posts: 477
Loc: Alligator creek
So, what is this low doing ???. Almost had to go back a full page to see the last actual comment for this LOW.

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#1408826 - 20/02/2017 08:00 Re: Tropical Cyclone Alfred (91P) Gulf of Carpentaria - February 2017 [Re: Mick10]
Hopefull Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1004
Loc: Burpengary QLD
Maybe we could go to the Moderators and start a thread on these sort of topics accepting the facts that it will get contentious and emotional and insults will fly as long as we can get over it and move on. I have learnt that when I got some well deserved tirades of critisism. It is better than the forums dying. Then again maybe it is a really bad idea.
Cheers everybody.

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